IBIMET Heat WAVE resiliency

CARISMAND Stakeholder Assembly 2016
Bucharest, Romania 14 - 15 April 2016
Marco Morabito, Alfonso Crisci, Valentina Grasso
Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council
Giada Brandani, Simone Orlandini
Centre of Bioclimatology – University of Florence
Communication strategies and informative tools for the
mitigation of heat-wave effects on vulnerable people

What is the heat-wave definition?
There is no universally accepted heat-wave definition
WMO-No. 1142, 2015
McGregor et al., 2005
• Based on WMO description:
heat-waves are understood to be periods of unusually hot and dry or hot and humid weather with a
detailed onset and cessation, a duration of at least two–three days, usually with a discernible impact on
human and natural systems.
• What does the term “unusual” mean?
A statistical definition of unusual or extreme would make reference to events that have a five percent
chance or less of occurring based on historical records.
• Heat-waves are relative to a location’s climate:
the same meteorological conditions can constitute a heat-wave in one place but not in another.
• Heat-waves are geographically diffuse and occur over large areas:
this characteristic differ this climate hazards by others (i.e. tropical cyclones, floods, …).
• Heat-waves may be exacerbated in large urban areas:
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect can favor nocturnal temperatures several
°C above those of regional temperatures during a heat-wave.
WMO-No. 1142, 2015

The WMO heat-wave definition
Periods of extreme day- and night-time temperatures
(greater than local 95th percentile values)
with a duration of two or more days.
WMO-No. 1142, 2015
Dry heat-waves
(continental or Mediterranean climate
or where air is warmed adiabatically)
Stable
periods
Clear skies
Large inputs of
solar radiation
Also accompanied by
windy conditions,
which can increase
heat stress
Very warm,
oppressive, humid
conditions during the
day and at night
Often nocturnal
cloud cover
Moist heat-waves
(mid-latitude temperate and
maritime climates)
Heat-waves can be both summertime and annual events.
Perkins & Alexander, 2012

What are the indicators to identify a heat wave?
Air temperatures
(Tmin, Tmax, Tave)
Biometeorological
direct indices
(i.e. Heat index, Humidex, …)
Human heat-budget
models (rational indices)
(i.e. UTCI, PMV, …)
Pappenberger et al., 2015
EuroHEAT (Improving Public Health Responses to extreme weather/heat-waves) project
• Periods of at least 2 days with Tappmax
exceeding the 90th percentile of the
monthly distribution
or
• Periods of at least 2 days in which
Tmin exceeds the 90th percentile &
Tappmax exceeds the median monthly
value
D’Ippoliti et al., 2010
Heat wave (HW) definition
Duration
• Short HW: duration < the median
• Long HW: duration ≥ the median
Intensity
• Low intensity HW: Tappmax < 95th perc
• High intenity HW: Tappmax ≥ 95th perc
Timing
• The first HW of each summer
• HWs that occurred between 1 and 3 days after the previous one;
• HWs that occurred 3 or more days after the previous one
HW characteristics

When a heat-wave is considered a disaster?
An heat-wave is generally considered as a “Natural HAZARD”:
potentially damaging natural physical event that may cause the loss of life, injury or other health impacts,
property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental
damage and degradation.
An heat-wave is defined as a “Natural DISASTER”
when a crisis situation occurs causing wide spread damage, destruction and human suffering, which far
exceeds the local ability to recover, necessitating for external national or international level assistance.
(Quarantelli, 1985; http://www.emdat.be/glossary/9#letterd)
Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters
At least one of the following criteria must
be fulfilled:
• Deaths: 10 or more people deaths.
• Affected: 100 or more people
affected/injured/homeless.
• Declaration/international
appeal: Declaration by the country of a
state of emergency and/or an appeal for
international assistance. http://www.emdat.be/

Are we sure that an heat-wave is a “Natural” disaster?
A natural disaster is never solely “natural”
Social
factors
Climate
Change
Demographic
factors
Urban Heat
island
Land
planning
Transport
policies
WMO, 2016
Natural hazards are strongly influenced by human activities:
Environmental
pollution
Economical
factors
HEAT-
WAVE
Heat stress
Energy use
Air pollution+ + +
► Direct consequences for human health
► Synergistic effects of heat and air pollution
► Electric blackouts in large areas
► Anthropogenic heat emissions
► Issues related to food and livelihood securityTransport system+ + +
Water demand
Natech:
Natural Hazard Triggering
a Technological DisasterCrop & livestock
►

Heat-wave disasters worldwide
Estimated Deaths and Billion Dollar Losses from
Extreme Events in the United States, 2004–2013
U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016

Heat-wave disasters worldwide
A total number of 172 heat-wave disasters (about 2% of all
natural disasters) have been identified worldwide since 1950 with
about 160,000 total deaths (most of them in Europe)
Heat-waves rarely receive adequate attention: they often lack the spectacular and
sudden violence of other hazards, such as tropical cyclones or flash floods.
WMO-No. 1142, 2015
HEAT: THE SILENT KILLER!
http://www.emdat.be/

Heat-wave disasters in Europe
A total number of 62 heat-wave disasters (about 5% of the total natural disasters and 13%
of all meteorological disasters) have been identified in Europe since 1950
The heat-wave that occurred in Europe in August 2003 was unprecedented and shocked the
world with more than 70,000 excess deaths across 12 European countries.
(Robine et al., 2008)
Heat-waves can also have catastrophic effects:
The Russian heat-wave of 2010 cause around 55,000 heat-related deaths.
(Barriopedro et al., 2011)
http://www.emdat.be/ http://www.emdat.be/
Heat-wave disaster count

The impact of heat-wave disasters on European mortality
2010 (55,736)
2003 (20,089)
2003 (19,049); 2006 (1,388); 2015 (3,275)
2003 (15,090)
2003 (9,355)
2003 (2,696)
2003 (1,175)
2003 (1,039) http://www.emdat.be/

Who is most vulnerable to heat-waves?
All individuals are potentially exposed to heat
https://www.gov.uk/ Environment Agency, 2007
Vulnerability to heat = ƒ (heat hazard, sensitivity, adaptation capacity)
(IPCC, 2001)
Heat-waves do not affect in the same way all people:
it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects.
However
May vary geographically, depending on the
social, economic and political settingElderly
Living
alone
Pre-existing
diseases
Working outdoors or
heavy labour indoors
Cardiovascular
Respiratory
Mental
Diabetes
Kidney failure
Parkinson
Alzheimer
Economically
disadvantaged
Immobile Neurological disorders
Children

Are there other vulnerable groups to heat-waves?
(Glob Health Action 2013, 6:21364)
Population compositionSocial characteristics
These factors can often be neglected when guidelines and policies are formulated.
Glob Health Action 2013, 6:21364
GAP which needs to be addressed in the face of
climate change!!!
Only few studies have specifically addressed the issue of ethnicity as
a risk factor for heat-related mortality and morbidity.

Risk factors for ethnic minority groups
during heat-waves?
 Certain “non-White” minority groups in North America have shown higher morbidity and
mortality rates associated with hot weather. Yardley et al., 2011. Basu, 2009.
 African Americans are particularly vulnerable, also evidenced during the 1995 heat-wave in
Chicago. Shonkoff et al., 2009. Whitman et al., 1997. Klinenberg, 1999. Healy, 2005.
Etnicity the shared identity or similarity of a group of people on
the basis of one or more factors.
Although some differences between the number of sweat glands have been noted in people of
different ethnicities, little or no difference has been found between Caucasians and African
American individuals in terms of sweat loss under the same experimental conditions.
Genetic adaptation and acclimatisation could play a role
in differences between cultural groups.
(Glob Health Action 2013)

Ethnic minority groups in Europe
Migrants Tourists
Heat warnings should be issued not only in the official language of a country but
also in other commonly used languages.
Non-official language speaking communities and those without
access to broadcast media may also be at a disadvantage.
WMO-No. 1142, 2015
Refugees
Seasonal
workers

Ethnic minority groups in Europe (vulnerability)
Total number of long-term immigrants arriving into the
reporting country during the reference year
Tourism destinations — nights spent at tourist
accommodation establishments, 2013
(million nights spent in the country by non-residents)
(Eurostat, online data code: tour_occ_ninat)
ES
I
FR
UK A GR DE HR PT NL CZ B
BG
CY PL H IE SE
DK
MT
SI FI
SK EE RO LT LV LU

Population in Europe (exposure)
2014
Source: http://www.unhcr.org/pages/4a013eb06.html

Heat-wave disaster counts in Europe

Heat-wave disaster-related deaths in Europe

Heat-Health Action Plans (HHAP) in WHO
European Region member states:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitzewelle_in_Europa_2003
Core elements of HHAP essential to
prevent health effects from heat-waves
1. Agreement on a lead body and clear definition
of actors’ responsibilities.
2. Accurate and timely alert systems (HHWS).
3. Health information plan.
4. Reduction in indoor heat exposure.
5. Particular care for vulnerable groups.
6. Preparedness of the health/social care system.
7. Long-term urban planning.
8. Real-time surveillance.
(WHO 2008, 2011)
A composite index based on the 8 core HHAP elements has been developed in the
field of the WHO/EC EuroHEAT project with the aim of identifying gap areas in
need of further HHAP improvement.
(Bittner et al., 2013)
What mitigation actions against heat-waves?

HHAP in WHO European member states
18 of 51 included countries have developed a heat-health action plan.
GAP areas were represented by:
“Indoor heat reduction”; “Urban Planning” “Real-time surveillance”, “Evaluation”
Two countries (Romania and Serbia) do not include an alert system:
their Heat-Health Action Plans have to be seen as non-functional.

However, in a previous scientific study (Lowe et al., 2011) a
Romanian Heat-wave Early Warning System was already described.
Description of the phases in the heat-wave early warning system
Characteristics of the Romanian heat-wave early warning systems
temperature indicators and trigger thresholds

Heat-Health Warning System (HHWS)
The HHWS is the main core element of a HHAP:
the lack of an alert system makes the HHAP non-functional.
On the basis of the main International Organizations:
an HHWS is designed to alert decision-makers and the general public to impending
dangerous hot weather and to serve as a source of advice on avoiding negative health
outcomes associated with hot-weather extremes.
An HHWS is composed of a number
of elements which include:
 Weather forecasting.
 A method for assessing how future
weather patterns may play out in terms
of a range of health outcomes.
 Determination of heat-stress thresholds
for action.
 A system of graded alerts/actions for
communication to the:
• General population
• Specific target groups
• Government agencies
(WHO/WMO/UNEP, 1996)
(Baccini et al., 2008)

Main media for communication used in HHWS
 Television and radio reach the population at large:
• Television has the advantage of presenting the information in graphical format;
• Radio can reach a wide audience rapidly in an emergency situation.
 Internet is a versatile tool to display large amounts of easily updated information.
• Visual graphics and animations, which may attract and motivate users.
• Information can target specific/specialized users who are provided with forecasts via a
password.
 Hotline numbers are normally available.
 Automatic telephone answering devices are effective in reducing the number of telephone
calls to the forecast office.
 The telephone paging system, the e-mail alert system and SMS allow alarms to be sent to
a list of individuals, including emergency managers.
 Newspapers are not suitable for the dissemination of warnings. However, they are useful
for providing detailed and graphic information and being a powerful medium for public
education purposes.

Heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools
# Broadcast Media
Public media with large mass target as newspapers,
TV, radio, web portal

# Institutional Risk
Communication

# Istitutional Risk
Communication
An example of brochure in Romanian
language on recommendations for the staff
who assist the elderly at home
Is it a cultural gap?

http://www.euroheat-project.org/dwd/index.phpThis tool maps the
probability of a
forthcoming heat-wave:
it represents a valuable
support for health
services in planning.
As part of the EU Project EuroHEAT, the German Weather Service has developed an
online tool providing medium-term forecasting of heat.
http://ec.europa.eu/health/climate_change/extreme_weather/heatwaves/index_en.htm#fragment2
# Web portals for climate information decision support

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/5/EU-Europe.html
This web portal provides the most relevant Multilanguage information needed to prepare for extreme
weather (i.e. heavy rain with risk of flooding, heat waves, …) expected to occur somewhere over Europe.
Developed for the Network of European Meteorological
Services. This initiative is strongly supported by WMO

The colors used on the website maps indicate the severity of the danger and its possible impact.
Clicking on a country will link you to national and regional warnings.

By clicking on a region within a country, you will find more detailed information for these higher danger
levels on (i.e. the expected time period for any given event to happen and its intensity).
The information is presented in the
selected language and the original
language of the country involved.
Extreme high temperature

# Outdoor & Indoor Public information Display
www.abc.net.au
Devices prompt instantaneous
data or derived index in
outdoor or indoor spaces.

# City dashboard Public web platform displays of urban key parameters
flows in real-time to monitor situations.

# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter
Communication by microblogging
platform as Twitter follows OCHA/UN
recommendation by using hashtag
http://www.unocha.org/node/117960
#OladeCalor
#Heatwave
#Hitzewelle
#emergenzacaldo
#Canicule
Coincise Textual_Conversation/Sharable_Content
spreading specific information.

An interesting example of information using twitter
http://www.disit.org/drupal/?q=node/6693

# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter http://www.disit.org/tv/index.php?p=chart_singlechannel&canale=CALDO

Relationships between the daily volume of
tweets-related heat conversations and heat-waves
http://www.disit.org/tv/index.php?p=chart_singlechannel&canale=CALDO

# Networking Social Media Facebook Work with social networking for care,
share information, social engagement.
Is it a potential useful tool for
heat-wave disaster as well?
Facebook’s Safety Check prompts people in the
region to mark themselves as “safe.”

# Messengers
Mobile/desktop applications dedicated
to personal communication
(talk, textual, users’ content).

# Mobile applications Computer program designed to run on mobile
devices such as smartphones and tablet computers
Tools to help raise awareness
and decrease risk for those
working or playing in extreme
heat conditions.

# Mobile applications A mobile phone APP for REFUGEES
HI HERE is the product of a collaboration
between young graduates with an interest in
integration and development.
HI HERE
is the result of extensive
research regarding systems of
refugee reception and is based
on fieldwork conducted in
Southern Italy during the
summer 2015.

# QDF Information Bots Telegram
Fast and effective information retrieval given by a related “Question Driven Framework”
available by mobile/desktop application to connect users within sensor or weather services.
DataStickers Bot
UTCI Thermal class
Icons by local ground sensors
@PorcellinoBot
opensensorsdata CNR
@ProtcomuneFI - Civil Protection Florence

# Collaborative & open
scientific Projects
Share public knowledge and geographic
information to increase awareness and help
disaster preparedness/response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:H
eat_waves_in_Europe
http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Heat-Wave
https://github.com/meteosalute/mapheatrisk
Mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly
in major Italian cities
(Morabito et al., 2015)

# Health Monitoring & wearable devices
A remote health monitoring system based on wearable sensors.
Health related information is gathered via body-worn wireless sensors and transmitted to the
caregiver via an information gateway such as a mobile phone. Caregivers can use this
information to implement interventions as needed.
WorkersElderly
Patel et al., 2012
https://jneuroengrehab.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-0003-9-21

Automatic Warning Web Platform activated when predetermined conditions occurs in
measured parameters by connected sensors or in web portal communication channels.
# Feed-based notification systems

Relationships between
heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools
& main stakeholders in the Tuscany region.
No relationship Moderate relationship High relationship

Relationships between
heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools
& vulnerable people in the Tuscany region.
No relationship Moderate relationship High relationship

CONCLUSIONS
Hot days, hot nights and heat-waves had become more
frequent over the previous 50 years (IPCC, 2013).
The length, frequency and/or intensity of heat-waves
would likely increase over most land areas in the
twenty-first century (IPCC 2012).
An effective communication
and dissemination strategy
is fundamental to reduce
the risk associated with
extreme heat.
Communicated precisely
and adjusted according
to the target or
vulnerable group
The use of effective communication strategies and
the application of appropriate informative tools
might help to reduce or remove the gaps between the
provision, understanding and use of information.
Partially!!!
Gap in long term measures and a need to
strengthen surveillance and evaluation.Only about 34% of the WHO Member States
have developed heat-health action plans.
Are European countries
prepared for the next
big heat-wave?

Heat waves are already to arrive!!!
April 14, 2016 April 15, 2016 April 16, 2016
http://www.euroheat-project.org/dwd/index.php

For more information:
Marco Morabito
m.morabito@ibimet.cnr.it

IBIMET Heat WAVE resiliency

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