The Economic Recovery Index tracks Ireland's economic recovery through a monthly survey. The February 2011 results show: 1) The Recovery Indicator has increased from its late 2010 low but remains below 2010 levels, indicating ongoing but slow recovery. 2) Over half of respondents feel the recession is still affecting Ireland, though optimism is rising gradually. 3) Saving and debt repayment remain financial priorities, while borrowing and spending intentions are up slightly from December 2010. 4) Reported stress and worry remain high while happiness and enjoyment levels are up somewhat from a year ago.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
February 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to February 2011
• The fieldwork was conducted 7th-15th
February 2011

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• February 2011 remains below the level last year, but still up from late 2010’s trough.
April’09 0% Feb’11 0%
April’09 1% Feb’11 1%
April’09 77% Feb‘11 58% April’09 8% Feb’11 14%
April’09 14% Feb’11 27%

5. 5
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• The Indicator has recovered much of the ground lost during November/December 2010.
30
27.1 26
25 25.3 24
22.7 23.8 23.8
23.5
20 19.6 19.2
17.8 18.4 17.818.3
17 17.3
16.3 15.4
15 15
12
10
8.3
7.3
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '10 '11

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41% 43% 39%
41%44% 42%43% 46% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42%
34% 31% 23% 26%
24%
26% 18%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '11
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54% 55%
65% 55%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48%
44%
51% 55% 54%52% 53% 50% 46% 44% 33% 41%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50% 47%
41% 41%
47% 43% 47% 39%
48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46%
45% 45% 46% 32% 34% 37%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '11
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59%
52% 53% 51% 50% 54% 52% 45% 45% 49%
45%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '11

8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2010 & February 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
27%
•Debt 11% 14%
23%
•Borrowing
Dec '10 Feb '11 Dec '10 Feb '11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to buy
main financial priority I would be happy to a house for those who
borrow from a bank if I want to
58% 61% need to
55% 58%
21% 24%
Dec '10 Feb '11 Dec '10 Feb '11 Dec '10 Feb '11

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to February 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '10 '11

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to February 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
'09 '10 '10 '11

11. 11
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog