Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. For the fourth month in a row, our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record level. Maybe there's a recovery under way...? More here: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
January 2014
(including analysis by age group and social class)
© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index
1

2. Picking Up
Last year’s improving performance has continued
into January, and so for the fourth month in a row
our Economic Recovery Index has reached a
record high level – up to 33.3.
In particular, a majority of consumers are
optimistic about the future, the first time since
May 2011.
December’s retail figures – showing a pick up in
the value and volume of sales year-on-year –
certainly reflects the improving consumer outlook.
We have been tracking consumer sentiment
about the economy and their own financial
situation for nearly five years and this is the first
time we have seen such a steady improvement in
outlook.
It looks like the early stages of a recovery…
Economic Recovery Index
2

3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly five years ago to assess
the psychological impact of the recession and
to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
January 2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 15th-20th January 2014 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
Economic Recovery Index
3

4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index continues to improve: reaching 33.3 in January 2014, the fourth record breaking
performance in row:
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
5
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
Economic Recovery Index
4

5. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:
Dec ’13: 1%
Dec ’13: 8%
Dec ’13: 24%
Dec ’13: 31%
Jan ’14: 20%
Dec ’13: 36%
Economic Recovery Index
Jan ’14: 0%
Jan ’14: 9%
Jan ’14: 34%
Jan ’14: 36%
5

6. ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
The economic
The economic
The economic
The economic The economic
situation is
situation is bad
situation is Economic
situation in situation is bad
getting better
but showing a
good and
Recovery
Ireland is
but has
and showing
few signs of
almost fully
Index
getting worse
stabilized
clear signs of
improvement
recovered
improvement
32
34
31
3
0
27.1
56
23
18
2
1
17.3
58
24
16
2
0
15.4
45
30
21
3
0
20.9
24
36
31
8
1
31.2
20
36
34
9
0
33.3
Economic Recovery Index
6

7. ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Economic Recovery Index
52
26
21
32
37
41
I feel I am
financially I am optimistic
comfortable in spite of the
enough to
current
make it
economic
through the
situation
recession
50
39
37
40
40
44
61
48
45
47
49
53
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
55
49
46
47
43
46
7

8. ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
I am more
I am saving a
My main
I would be
relaxed about
lot more than financial priority
happy to
spending
before
is to pay off my borrow money
money than I
because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I
was a few
recession
as possible
need to
months ago
21
26
60
29
13
22
59
22
14
24
57
24
22
27
57
27
22
26
55
26
23
25
57
24
Economic Recovery Index
8

9. Brighter Outlook
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
January 2014
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1003
495
507
169
224
187
157
266
280
478
525
Strongly Agree
14%
14%
14%
19%
18%
8%
9%
16%
16%
17%
12%
Slightly Agree
38%
38%
39%
41%
34%
38%
37%
42%
39%
41%
36%
Neither/Nor
16%
17%
14%
11%
20%
18%
14%
14%
16%
15%
16%
Slightly Disagree
17%
16%
18%
15%
18%
17%
20%
15%
16%
16%
18%
Strongly Disagree
13%
13%
13%
11%
7%
17%
20%
12%
12%
10%
16%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
9

10. Buy Irish
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
January 2014
Weighted Sample
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1003
495
507
169
224
187
157
266
280
478
525
Strongly Agree
5%
4%
5%
9%
5%
4%
4%
3%
5%
6%
4%
Slightly Agree
18%
18%
18%
22%
21%
16%
14%
17%
19%
20%
16%
Neither/Nor
20%
24%
17%
17%
21%
19%
14%
26%
24%
23%
18%
Slightly Disagree
27%
26%
28%
31%
26%
26%
29%
26%
23%
27%
27%
Strongly Disagree
28%
26%
29%
18%
23%
35%
38%
27%
28%
23%
32%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
10

11. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
10%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
11

12. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
5%
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
Economic Recovery Index
12

13. Changing Moods
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: January 2014
January 2014
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1003
495
507
169
224
187
157
266
280
478
525
Enjoyment
53%
55%
50%
54%
47%
49%
63%
53%
50%
57%
49%
Happiness
53%
51%
55%
57%
57%
52%
50%
50%
51%
55%
51%
Stress
45%
42%
47%
51%
49%
51%
50%
31%
48%
44%
46%
Worry
41%
39%
44%
42%
43%
49%
44%
33%
42%
41%
42%
Anxiety
33%
33%
34%
38%
32%
39%
33%
28%
32%
34%
33%
Boredom
27%
31%
23%
39%
30%
31%
19%
17%
21%
25%
28%
Physical Pain
24%
24%
25%
23%
20%
24%
29%
27%
26%
22%
27%
Sadness
20%
18%
22%
26%
21%
19%
19%
18%
21%
20%
20%
Anger
17%
19%
15%
19%
17%
24%
16%
12%
16%
15%
19%
Fear
11%
10%
12%
13%
14%
14%
7%
7%
12%
10%
12%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2014
13

14. Drivers & Drinking
we ask the right questions
so you get the right answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

15. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack
your way to growth in 2014:
e. info@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm