2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Buoyant Mood
The good weather in July has meant that
June’s bounce in our Economic Recovery
Index has been sustained for a second month.
The Index fell back only slightly, but still shows
a marked improvement on late 2012/early
2013.
Though we don’t have any indications from
retail sales or other spending measures, it
seems reasonable to assume that the positive
mood is supporting a pick up in a number of
consumer sectors.
That said, consumers are in a ‘live for today’
mood (so no borrowing), but those products
and services meeting needs for fun and for
indulgence will do well while the sun shines…
3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out four years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
July 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 15th to 22nd July 2013 inclusive.
We have now added historical tables to the
report following requests from a number of
readers.
4. 4Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our ERI index in July 2013 stood at 23.3 – continuing the positive trend since January:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
5. 5Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
June ’13: 37% July ’13: 41%
June ’13: 32% July ’13: 30%
June ’13: 27% July ’13: 25%
June ’13: 4% July ’13: 4%
June ’13: 0% July ’13: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
There has been a slight fall back in the economic outlook in July relative to June:
6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0
Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0
Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3
Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5
Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Jul-09 42 47 58 60
Jul-10 42 47 55 55
Jul-11 26 39 48 49
Jul-12 27 38 45 43
Jun-13 33 40 48 46
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
8. 8Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jul-09 14
Jul-10 20 27 62 27
Jul-11 17 26 59 26
Jul-12 18 25 56 25
Jun-13 21 28 54 23
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Survivors I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 10% 11% 10% 6% 9% 9% 6% 18% 10% 14% 7%
Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 31% 26% 26% 28% 28% 31% 26%
Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 17% 15% 14% 12% 15% 15% 14%
Slightly Disagree 19% 17% 20% 29% 21% 17% 14% 14% 19% 18% 20%
Strongly Disagree 25% 25% 26% 17% 20% 31% 36% 25% 25% 20% 30%
10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Survivors II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
July 2013 TOTAL Tesco
Dunne
Stores
Aldi Lidl
Irish
Times
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Mail
Irish
Exam
iner
Sky UPC
Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273
Strongly Agree 10% 10% 13% 6% 11% 21% 14% 6% 16% 12% 11%
Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 27% 28% 32% 26% 46% 26% 30%
Neither/Nor 14% 13% 18% 14% 14% 14% 8% 7% 11% 16% 12%
Slightly Disagree 19% 21% 21% 18% 17% 17% 22% 26% 9% 18% 21%
Strongly Disagree 25% 26% 17% 30% 29% 20% 21% 30% 18% 26% 25%
12. 12Economic Recovery Index
NEW: Price Sensitive II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV):
“I always buy the lowest price products or services”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
July 2013 TOTAL Tesco
Dunne
Stores
Aldi Lidl
Irish
Times
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Mail
Irish
Exam
iner
Sky UPC
Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273
Strongly Agree 27% 27% 32% 29% 26% 27% 35% 28% 29% 28% 27%
Slightly Agree 28% 28% 27% 34% 29% 30% 39% 28% 27% 28% 28%
Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 23% 18% 16% 13% 6% 17% 18% 17%
Slightly Disagree 18% 14% 17% 9% 15% 15% 5% 25% 14% 17% 18%
Strongly Disagree 6% 7% 5% 3% 8% 8% 3% 11% 8% 6% 6%
13. 13Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'11
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
15. 15Economic Recovery Index
Emotions Summary Table
% Enjoyment
Happ-
iness
Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Jul-09 58 56 46 41 32 22 19 19
Jul-10 58 54 45 40 32 20 19 18
Jul-11 57 54 43 34 25 16 23 15
Jul-12 58 52 39 35 27 19 22 15
Jun-13 60 55 39 37 30 19 28 17
Jul-13 58 56 42 34 31 18 25 16
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
16. 16Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods I
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 58% 62% 54% 48% 49% 60% 65% 68% 57% 61% 55%
Happiness 56% 58% 55% 62% 52% 58% 57% 55% 53% 57% 56%
Stress 42% 37% 48% 50% 49% 52% 38% 28% 45% 41% 44%
Worry 34% 30% 39% 36% 35% 45% 37% 23% 35% 34% 35%
Anxiety 31% 28% 34% 35% 41% 32% 31% 21% 35% 33% 30%
Boredom 28% 26% 30% 54% 35% 26% 16% 14% 29% 28% 28%
Physical Pain 25% 24% 25% 26% 17% 24% 26% 29% 24% 22% 27%
Sadness 18% 13% 23% 24% 19% 19% 18% 12% 19% 15% 20%
Anger 16% 13% 19% 14% 20% 23% 13% 10% 17% 16% 16%
Fear 9% 7% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 5% 11% 9% 10%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: July 2013
17. 17Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods II
Source: Amárach Research, July 2013
July 2013 TOTAL Tesco
Dunne
Stores
Aldi Lidl
Irish
Times
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Mail
Irish
Exam
iner
Sky UPC
Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273
Enjoyment 58% 57% 63% 60% 50% 62% 69% 55% 71% 61% 56%
Happiness 56% 52% 67% 57% 51% 58% 57% 48% 62% 58% 53%
Stress 42% 43% 43% 47% 39% 36% 39% 42% 46% 42% 46%
Worry 34% 35% 28% 38% 38% 30% 37% 42% 36% 36% 36%
Anxiety 31% 34% 29% 31% 28% 24% 30% 41% 24% 30% 36%
Boredom 28% 33% 25% 27% 29% 20% 22% 28% 11% 28% 28%
Physical Pain 25% 24% 28% 25% 20% 22% 26% 24% 35% 26% 23%
Sadness 18% 20% 12% 18% 20% 18% 17% 20% 17% 16% 18%
Anger 16% 15% 18% 15% 19% 13% 15% 16% 23% 16% 15%
Fear 9% 12% 9% 9% 7% 9% 13% 15% 8% 8% 10%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: July 2013 (by main supermarket/newspaper/TV service)
18. 18Economic Recovery Index
ERI Resources
We have created a dedicated resource
on the Amárach website for those
interested in exploring our Economic
Recovery Index further.
It includes links to previous issues as
well as to a spreadsheet containing
monthly values for all the component
parts of the ERI – and more besides –
going right back to April 2009.
There is also a link to a special data
visualisation facility we have created in
partnership with Delphi Analytics.
19. Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, in-
depths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com
20. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch