The document provides a summary of the October 2013 Economic Recovery Index report by Amárach Research. Some key points: - The Economic Recovery Index rose to its highest level of 27.4 in October 2013 since tracking began in April 2009, indicating improved consumer optimism about the economy. - However, consumers remain cautious and price conscious, with macroeconomic optimism not yet translating to increased spending at the micro level. - Negative emotions like stress and worry, which have been trending up in previous months, continued affecting consumer behavior. - While the recovery appears to be happening in the wider economy, the effects are less clear at the ground level for consumers.

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October 2013
(including analysis by main bank; supermarket; electricity provider)
© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index
1

2. Green Leaves
October was a turning point in the mood of the nation –
our Economic Recovery Index rose to its highest level
since we began tracking in April 2009.
So ‘green shoots’ for the recovery at last? Not quite yet –
it’s more a case of ‘green leaves’, i.e.: recovery appears to
be happening ‘above’ in terms of the wider economy, but
here ‘on the ground’ it’s less clear cut.
Still, our survey took place in the weeks after Budget 2013,
and there certainly appear to be no negative
consequences for consumer optimism generally about the
near term outlook for Ireland’s economy.
That said, some of the negative emotions we have been
tracking every month (e.g.: stress/worry) have been
trending up, in turn affecting consumer behaviour.
So this month’s report shows that consumers remain
cautious – and price conscious – and marketers still have
their work cut out turning macro-optimism into real
spending growth at the micro-level.
Economic Recovery Index
2

3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out four years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
October 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 21st to 30th October 2013 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
Economic Recovery Index
3

4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index rose to 27.4 in October 2013, its highest level ever since we began tracking the
mood of the nation in April 2009:
30
25
20
15
10
Oct
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'13
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan '12
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
May
June
Apr
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'11
Oct
Nov
Aug
Sept
July
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'10
Oct
Nov
Aug
Sept
Jun
July
0
Apr '09
5
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
Economic Recovery Index
4

5. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:
Sept ’13: 0%
Sept ’13: 4%
Sept ’13: 35%
Sept ’13: 30%
Oct ’13: 32%
Sept ’13: 31%
Economic Recovery Index
Oct ’13: 0%
Oct ’13: 4%
Oct ’13: 32%
Oct ’13: 32%
5

6. ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Sep-13
Oct-13
The economic
The economic
The economic
The economic The economic
situation is
situation is bad
situation is Economic
situation in situation is bad
getting better
but showing a
good and
Recovery
Ireland is
but has
and showing
few signs of
almost fully
Index
getting worse
stabilized
clear signs of
improvement
recovered
improvement
47
30
22
1
0
19.6
56
23
18
2
1
16.3
42
31
25
2
0
22.0
48
28
21
3
0
19.8
35
31
30
4
0
25.7
32
32
32
4
0
27.4
Economic Recovery Index
6

7. ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Sep-13
Oct-13
Economic Recovery Index
48
26
26
26
28
30
I feel I am
financially I am optimistic
comfortable in spite of the
enough to
current
make it
economic
through the
situation
recession
46
41
38
38
38
36
55
44
49
48
45
44
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
56
52
45
44
46
43
7

8. ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Sep-13
Oct-13
I am more
I am saving a
My main
I would be
relaxed about
lot more than financial priority
happy to
spending
before
is to pay off my borrow money
money than I
because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I
was a few
recession
as possible
need to
months ago
16
32
61
33
15
25
59
27
14
22
54
23
16
25
56
25
19
26
57
25
18
24
57
24
Economic Recovery Index
8

9. Spendthrift I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
October 2013
Weighted Sample
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1002
495
507
169
223
187
157
265
279
478
524
Strongly Agree
4%
5%
3%
4%
4%
4%
2%
4%
3%
5%
3%
Slightly Agree
15%
17%
13%
17%
19%
13%
13%
12%
17%
17%
13%
Neither/Nor
17%
21%
14%
16%
21%
16%
14%
18%
21%
19%
16%
Slightly Disagree
25%
22%
28%
26%
23%
26%
27%
24%
24%
26%
24%
Strongly Disagree
38%
34%
42%
34%
33%
40%
43%
40%
35%
32%
43%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
9

10. Spendthrift II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
October 2013
Bord
Gais
Airtricity
511
161
259
3%
4%
4%
2%
17%
16%
15%
15%
16%
21%
21%
12%
18%
18%
16%
28%
23%
22%
25%
26%
28%
23%
34%
38%
39%
42%
36%
35%
42%
AIB
BoI
1002
354
275
182
338
152
87
212
Strongly Agree
4%
3%
3%
6%
5%
3%
1%
Slightly Agree
15%
15%
16%
11%
14%
14%
Neither/Nor
17%
19%
17%
14%
17%
Slightly Disagree
25%
29%
25%
22%
Strongly Disagree
38%
33%
38%
45%
Weighted Sample
Economic Recovery Index
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Super
Electric
Aldi
Valu
Ireland
TOTAL
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
10

11. Price Wars I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I always buy the lowest price products or services”
October 2013
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1002
495
507
169
223
187
157
265
279
478
524
Strongly Agree
28%
26%
30%
33%
26%
33%
31%
22%
23%
25%
31%
Slightly Agree
30%
30%
29%
31%
28%
30%
30%
29%
29%
30%
29%
Neither/Nor
19%
21%
16%
16%
20%
18%
16%
20%
23%
20%
17%
Slightly Disagree
15%
14%
16%
11%
14%
11%
15%
20%
17%
18%
12%
Strongly Disagree
5%
5%
4%
1%
5%
5%
6%
6%
5%
4%
5%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
11

12. Price Wars II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity):
“I always buy the lowest price products or services”
October 2013 TOTAL AIB
BoI
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Super
Valu
Aldi
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Airtricity
Gais
Weighted Sample
1002
354
275
182
338
152
87
212
511
161
259
Strongly Agree
28%
28%
25%
29%
27%
21%
16%
37%
28%
27%
28%
Slightly Agree
30%
27%
30%
31%
29%
33%
30%
31%
29%
34%
28%
Neither/Nor
19%
24%
16%
16%
18%
19%
27%
17%
20%
14%
18%
Slightly Disagree
15%
14%
19%
14%
17%
15%
19%
7%
14%
17%
17%
Strongly Disagree
5%
3%
6%
5%
5%
7%
8%
4%
4%
5%
5%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
12

13. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
10%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
13

14. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
5%
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
Economic Recovery Index
14

15. Emotions Summary Table
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Oct-09
61
54
41
34
24
17
19
13
Oct-10
51
49
49
42
32
18
23
19
Oct-11
51
50
46
39
32
20
23
15
Oct-12
53
51
40
40
28
19
20
13
Sep-13
56
51
44
40
35
20
23
16
Oct-13
54
50
47
43
32
23
26
16
Economic Recovery Index
Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain
Anger
15

16. Changing Moods I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: October 2013
October 2013
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1002
495
507
169
223
187
157
265
279
478
524
Enjoyment
54%
57%
52%
52%
47%
52%
57%
62%
55%
60%
49%
Happiness
50%
48%
52%
57%
50%
49%
45%
49%
51%
53%
47%
Stress
47%
45%
48%
57%
51%
53%
45%
34%
45%
48%
46%
Worry
43%
40%
45%
45%
42%
47%
43%
38%
38%
41%
44%
Anxiety
32%
29%
35%
36%
34%
32%
32%
28%
28%
33%
31%
Boredom
28%
32%
25%
48%
39%
21%
22%
15%
26%
27%
30%
Physical Pain
26%
21%
31%
25%
21%
21%
26%
34%
26%
23%
29%
Sadness
23%
20%
26%
31%
26%
17%
22%
20%
22%
23%
23%
Anger
16%
17%
16%
19%
21%
16%
18%
11%
18%
16%
17%
Fear
12%
12%
12%
12%
15%
14%
9%
10%
10%
10%
14%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
16

17. Changing Moods II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: October 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/electricity provider)
October 2013 TOTAL
AIB
BoI
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Super
Valu
Aldi
Electric Bord
Airtricity
Ireland Gais
Weighted Sample
1002
354
275
182
338
152
87
212
511
161
259
Enjoyment
54%
53%
58%
58%
56%
56%
62%
50%
55%
57%
56%
Happiness
50%
52%
52%
47%
50%
57%
47%
50%
52%
50%
50%
Stress
47%
44%
49%
45%
45%
47%
50%
51%
49%
40%
45%
Worry
43%
41%
40%
48%
43%
42%
31%
50%
44%
41%
41%
Anxiety
32%
27%
34%
35%
33%
31%
34%
33%
33%
28%
31%
Boredom
28%
29%
27%
25%
30%
26%
17%
33%
31%
20%
24%
Physical Pain
26%
26%
24%
27%
22%
28%
31%
28%
23%
26%
29%
Sadness
23%
21%
24%
23%
21%
22%
23%
26%
24%
17%
23%
Anger
16%
13%
15%
20%
17%
13%
15%
19%
14%
19%
18%
Fear
12%
10%
10%
18%
11%
11%
10%
12%
12%
8%
11%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2013
17

18. Drivers & Drinking
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19. Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, indepths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com

20. Trends Report
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