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Major Challenges in Minor Metals




                                           Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch
                                             Chief Executive Officer
                                           AMG Advanced Metallurgical
21 March 2011                                      Group N.V.
Cautionary Note
    THIS DOCUMENT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING PROVIDED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION BY AMG
    ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V. (THE “COMPANY”) AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM OR FURTHER
    DISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH
    THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS.

    This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire
    securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries nor should it or any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection
    with, any contract or commitment whatsoever.

    This presentation has been prepared by, and is the sole responsibility of, the Company. This document, any presentation made in conjunction herewith and any
    accompanying materials are for information only and are not a prospectus, offering circular or admission document. This presentation does not form a part of,
    and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or solicitation to subscribe for or purchase, or dispose of any of the securities of the companies mentioned
    in this presentation. These materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States or an invitation or an offer to the public or form of
    application to subscribe for securities. Neither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any
    offer or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express
    or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or the opinions contained herein. The
    Company and its advisors are under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. To the extent allowed by law, none
    of the Company or its affiliates, advisors or representatives accept any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any
    use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation.

    Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy,
    plans and objectives of management for future operations. These statements, which contain the words "believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intends,” “estimate,”
    “forecast,” “project,” “will,” “may,” “should” and similar expressions, reflect the beliefs and expectations of the management board of directors of the
    Company and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors,
    the achievement of the anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of the Company‟s recent acquisitions, the timely development and acceptance
    of new products, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals, and the impact of general business and global economic
    conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein.

    Neither the Company, nor any of its respective agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any
    of the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

    The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice.

    This document has not been approved by any competent regulatory or supervisory authority.

    The information found in this presentation accompanied a speech delivered by Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch on 21 March 2011 at the UBS Critical Raw Materials
    seminar in Frankfurt, Germany. The presentation materials were intended to be taken in context with the verbal comments made by Dr. Heinz Schimmelbush
    at this seminar.

2
Introduction




3
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

                    Listed: NYSE-Euronext Amsterdam: AMG
                 Founded: 2006
                Revenues: $990.5M
               Employees: 2,600
      Production facilities: Netherlands, Germany, UK, USA, Brazil, France,
                             Turkey, Canada, Czech Republic, China, Mexico,
                             Belgium, India, Poland, Sri Lanka
         Enterprise Value: €560 million
            52 week range: €6.25–€14.55
       Recent share price: €14.49 (18 March 2011)




4
Critical Raw Materials: AMG’s Involvement


        1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2

      H                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 He
    Hydrogen                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Helium
       1.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.0

                   4                                                                                                                                                       5            6             7             8           9        10
        3

      Li         Be                                                                                                                                                      B             C             N             O           F        Ne
                Beryllium                                                                                                                                                Boron        Carbon       Nitrogen       Oxygen     Fluorine    Neon
     Lithium
                  9.0                                                                                                                                                    10.8         12.0           14.0         16.0        19.0      20.2
       6.9
       11          12                                                                                                                                                     13           14            15            16          17        18

    Na          Mg                                                                                                                                                       Al           Si             P             S         Cl         Ar
     Sodium     Magnesium                                                                                                                                              Aluminum       Silicon      Phosphorus     Sulfur     Chlorine   Argon
      23.0        24.3                                                                                                                                                   27.0         28.1           31.0         32.1        35.5      40.0

       19          20           21              22             23            24          25            26           27            28             29          30           31           32            33            34          35        36

      K          Ca           Sc               Ti              V           Cr          Mn            Fe           Co             Ni            Cu           Zn          Ga           Ge             As           Se          Br         Kr
    Potassium    Calcium     Scandium        Titanium       Vanadium     Chromium      Manganese       Iron        Cobalt        Nickel        Copper        Zinc       Gallium      Germanium      Arsenic      Selenium    Bromine    Krypton
      39.1        40.1         45.0            47.9           50.9          52.0         54.9         55.9         58.9          58.7           63.5         65.4        69.7          72.6          74.9         79.0        79.9      83.8

       37          38           39             40              41           42           43            44           45            46             47          48           49           50            51            52          53        54

    Rb           Sr             Y             Zr             Nb          Mo             Tc           Ru          Rh             Pd             Ag          Cd           In           Sn            Sb            Te            I        Xe
    Rubidium    Strontium      Yitrium      Zirconium        Niobium      Molybdenum   Technetium    Ruthenium    Rhodium      Palladium        Silver     Cadmium      Indium         Tin         Antimony      Tellurium    Iodine    Xenon
      85.5        87.6         88.9           91.2            92.9         95.9           99         101.0        102.9         106.4          107.9        112.4       114.8         118.7         121.8         127.6      126.9      131.3

       55          56                          72              73           74           75            76           77            78             79          80           81           82            83            84          85        86

     Cs          Ba           57-71          Hf              Ta            W           Re            Os            Ir            Pt            Au          Hg            Tl           Pb            Bi           Po          At         Rn
     Caesium     Barium                      Hafnium         Tantalum     Tungsten     Rhenium       Osmium       Iridium       Platinum        Gold        Mercury     Thallium       Lead         Bismuth      Polonium    Astatine   Radon
     132.9       137.4                        178.5          181.0         183.9        186.2        190.2        192.2         195.1          197.0        200.6       204.4         207.2         209.0         210.0      210.0      222.0

       87          88                          104            105           106          107          108          109           110            111         112          113           114           115          116

     Fr          Ra           89-103          Rf             Db           Sg           Bh            Hs           Mt            Ds            Rg Uum Uut Uuq Uup Uuh
    Francium     Radium                    Rutherfordlium    Dubnium     Seaborgium    Bohrium       Hassium     Meitnerium   Darmstadtium   Roentgenium   Ununbium    Ununtrium    Ununquadium   Ununpentium   Ununhexium
     223.0       226.0                         261             262          263          264          265          266            269           272          277         284           289           288           292




       57          58           59              60             61           62           62            64           65            66             67          68           69           70            71

     La          Ce           Pr             Nd             Pm           Sm            Eu           Gd            Tb            Dy             Ho           Er         Tm             Yb            Lu
    Lanthanum    Cerium     Praseodymium    Neodymium       Promethium   Samarium      Europium     Gadolinium    Terbium      Dysprosium      Holmium      Erbium      Thallium     Ytterbium     Lutetium
     138.9       140.1        140.9           144.2          147.0         150.4        152.0        157.3        158.9         162.5          164.9        167.3       168.9         173.0         175.0

       89          90           91              92             93           94           95            96           97            98            99          100          101           102           103

     Ac          Th           Pa               U             Np           Pu           Am           Cm            Bk             Cf            Es          Fm          Md            No             Lr
     Actinium    Thorium    Protactinium      Uranium       Neptunium    Plutonium     Americium     Curium      Berkelium     Californium   Einsteinium   Fermium    Mendelevium    Nobelium     Lawrencium
     132.9       232.0        231.0           238.0           237.0        242.0        243.0        247.0        247.0         251.0          254.0        253.0       256.0         254.0         257.0




5
Ti Alloys for Aerospace




6
Technology Leaps Trigger Rapid Demand Growth
     Consumer Electronics
        Tantalum for capacitors
     Aerospace
        Titanium quantities for the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 is
         over 2.5 times the amount used on aircraft they are replacing
     Solar
        Silicon metal demand for solar applications was 180,000 tons
             10% of global production
             20% growth per annum estimated
     Electric car “E-Car”
        Mineral Lithium
             Cathodes - 10-20% estimated growth per annum
        Natural Graphite
             Anodes
             Nuclear waste solutions
7
E-Cars – Natural Graphite
                        →                            →
 Anode                  e-                           e-        Cathode
(Graphite)                       Separator                     (Lithium)

        −                                                      +

      Li+ Li+                                                  Li+

      Li+ Li+     Li+                                                      Nissan Leaf (25 kWh)       BMW Mini EV (35 kWh)
                                Li+
      Li+ Li+

      Li+ Li+                                         Li+                  One car* battery =             24 kg of graphite
                                                                           * Based   on 30 kWh
                 Electrolyte                     Electrolyte




                                                                           2010                    2015
                 Total Auto Sales (units)                                  70,169,000             91,872,000
                 % E-Car                                                         1.1%                   3.8%
                 E-Car Sales (units)                                          774,000              3,484,000
                 Natural Graphite Needed (mt)                                    37,152             167,232     4.5x in 5 Years!


 8   Sources: Credit Suisse, GK, company estimates
Critical Metals and Technology Development

      Demand Growth




                                          Ti

                      Mg         Cr

                           Sb              Nb

                      V                         Ta

                            Si
                                      C




                                 Technology Development
9
Critical Metals and Technology Development




                                                      Ti

                                            Mg

                              Cr
       Demand Growth




                                                           Ta
                       Sb              Si
                                                 Nb

                                   V




                                                  C




                       Technology Development
10
Reserve Depletion and Big New Finds

      Tantalum
         Greenbushes Tin – Talison – Global Advanced Metals,
          Australia (founded 1889)

      Niobium
         CBMM, Brazil (founded 1955)

      Molybdenum
         Jin Dui Cheng, Shanxi Province, China (founded 1970s)

      Rare Earths (“REE”)
         Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, China (founded 1980s)

     All are still the world’s largest mines – the same as 30 years ago
11   (1) World Titanium Market 2009 PSC VSMPO-Avisma Corporation
Recycling – Only a Partial Solution, but Growing

      Hurdles
         Lack of collection systems, unattractive economics
         Lack of technologies, expensive development
         Dissipation – metals “vanishing” into the end products

      Conclusion
         What can be (easily) recycled, is recycled
         Rarely big technology developments




12   (1) AMG estimates
Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand



                                                                      Severe                 Rapid
                                                                      Supply                Demand
                                                                       Risk                 Growth

                                                                                         Tantalum
                                                                                         Niobium Magnesium

                                                                       Chromium Metal   Graphite Silicon Metal
                                                                                        Lithium Titanium
                                                                                                 Vanadium
                                                                                               Cerium
                                                                                Limited
                                                                               Recycling
                                                                               Potential



                                           The world without government action
13   Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG
Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand



                                                                      Severe                  Rapid
                                                                      Supply                 Demand
                                                                       Risk                  Growth
                                                                                     Silicon Metal
                                                                                Titanium Tantalum
                                                                         Graphite           Niobium
                                                                        Magnesium Vanadium
                                                                                    Cerium
                                               Chromium Metal
                                                                                        Lithium

                                                                                Limited
                                                                               Recycling
                                                                               Potential



                                                The world with government action
14   Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG
Volatility
                                         Titanium Sponge                                                       Fe Vanadium
$40,000
                                                                             $70
$35,000
                                                                             $60
$30,000
                                                                             $50
$25,000
                                                                             $40
$20,000
                                                                             $30
$15,000

$10,000
                                                                             $20
 $5,000                                                                      $10
    $0                                                                       $0
          00      01      02      03     04    05   06   07   08   09   10
                                                                                    00       01    02    03    04    05    06    07    08    09    10


                                              Antimony                                                         Silicon Metal
$14,000                                                                       $4,500

$12,000                                                                       $4,000

                                                                              $3,500
$10,000
                                                                              $3,000
 $8,000
                                                                              $2,500

 $6,000                                                                       $2,000

                                                                              $1,500
 $4,000
                                                                              $1,000
 $2,000
                                                                               $500
    $0                                                                             $0
          00      01      02      03     04    05   06   07   08   09   10              00    01    02    03    04    05    06    07    08    09    10



     15        Sources: AMG, Bloomberg
Volatility - Cerium


$70,000

$60,000

$50,000

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

     $0
          00               01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09




16   Sources: AMG, Bloomberg
Critical Raw Materials:

           Definition




17
Critical Raw Materials EU Definition

      “The EU is highly dependent on imports of „high tech‟ metals
       such as cobalt, platinum, rare earths, and titanium. Such materials
       play an essential role in the development of innovative
       „environmental technologies‟ for boosting energy efficiency and
       reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

      Some raw materials can be considered to be particularly critical,
       because of three reasons:

         their significant economic importance for key sectors
         high supply risks
         lack of substitutes”
                    - ad hoc group of the Raw Materials Supply Group in a report to the European Commission, June 2010



18
Critical Raw Materials EU Listing 14

 The EU identified 14 critical raw materials to the European economy
    Antimony                            Indium
    Beryllium                           Magnesium
    Cobalt                              Niobium
    Fluorspar                           PGM
    Gallium                             Tungsten
    Germanium                           Tantalum
    Graphite                            Rare Earth




19   (1) EU Report on Critical Raw Materials, June 2010
Critical Raw Materials




                                                                              “Critical” raw
                                                                                materials




20   (1) European Commission Annex V to the Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials
Critical Raw Materials

      In addition to the “EU 14” materials, AMG believes that following
       are critical based upon the EU criteria:

                 Vanadium (1)
                 Silicon metal
                 Titanium sponge (1)
                 Chromium metal
                 Mineral Lithium (1)


      This critical list would include 11 materials that involve AMG

                     That would bring the 14 “EU Critical Materials” to 19

21   (1) Included as “critical” by the U.S. National Academies (U.S. Congress‟ Scientific arm)
Critical Raw Materials:

           Geography




22
Critical Raw Materials – Government Controls




                                                              Titanium Vanadium
                                                             Chromium Magnesium

                                                           Chromium
                    Titanium                                          Antimony Graphite
                   Magnesium                   Antimony                REE Magnesium
                                                                       Silicon Titanium   Titanium
                                               Magnesium
                                                                            Vanadium
                                                                  Graphite




                                                                  Graphite
                                           Tantalum
                               Tantalum
                                Niobium
                               Magnesium          Tantalum

                                                                                      Tantalum
                                           Vanadium
        Government Controls


23   Source: AMG
Sovereign Strategies:
  an Interpretation
Critical Raw Materials - Sovereign Strategies


     Sovereigns
                            Reduced domestic
                               production         Foreign processors welcome
                                                     to produce in country

     Export Restrictions


                            Reduced depletion,
                           environmental impact



       Acquisition of                             Global industry leadership
     foreign assets and                           headquartered in country
        technology

                              Price increases

25
China’s Position in Critical Minor Metals


                     Metal     Activity           Trade Restrictions   Market Share
             Antimony          Mining               Export Quotas         90%+
             Tantalum          Processor                 -----             10%
             Silicon Metal     Mining                   Tariffs           50%+
             Vanadium          Slag                      -----             33%
             Graphite          Mining, Smelting         Tariffs            70%
             Titanium Sponge   Production               Tariffs            33%
             Niobium           Processing                -----            N/A
             Strontium         Production           Export Quotas         90%+
             Cerium            Mining               Export Quotas         90%+
             Chromium Metal    Smelting                  -----            50%+
             Magnesium         Production                -----            80%+


26   Sources: AMG,
Cerium Revisited




                    Volatility will be even higher in the future
27   Sources: AMG
Germany’s dependency on China – selected metals:



                   Metal   China’s Production   Germany’s Import
                                 Rank              Percentage
         Titanium                  1                  100
         Vanadium                  2                  100
         Silicon Metal             2                   85
         Chromium Metal            1                  100
         Strontium                 1                  100




28   Source: AMG
Magnesium

      Market Statistics




                           Conclusion




29
AMG’s Strategy
     ■   Serve growing end markets with high value-added specialty metal
         products and engineering solutions, related to CO2 reduction and
         conservation of natural resources

     ■   Execute through a combination of:
          ■ Vertical integration
          ■ Industry consolidation
          ■ Continuous investment in productivity and technology




30
Conclusion

      Minor Metals are essential to the global economy

      Governments now have significant and increasing roles

      Very attractive rewards, but very high barriers of entry

      Due to technology, this will remain a long-term business




31
Ubs critical raw materials seminar, frankfurt, march 2011

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Ubs critical raw materials seminar, frankfurt, march 2011

  • 1. Major Challenges in Minor Metals Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch Chief Executive Officer AMG Advanced Metallurgical 21 March 2011 Group N.V.
  • 2. Cautionary Note THIS DOCUMENT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING PROVIDED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION BY AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V. (THE “COMPANY”) AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM OR FURTHER DISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries nor should it or any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation has been prepared by, and is the sole responsibility of, the Company. This document, any presentation made in conjunction herewith and any accompanying materials are for information only and are not a prospectus, offering circular or admission document. This presentation does not form a part of, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or solicitation to subscribe for or purchase, or dispose of any of the securities of the companies mentioned in this presentation. These materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States or an invitation or an offer to the public or form of application to subscribe for securities. Neither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any offer or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or the opinions contained herein. The Company and its advisors are under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. To the extent allowed by law, none of the Company or its affiliates, advisors or representatives accept any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations. These statements, which contain the words "believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intends,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “will,” “may,” “should” and similar expressions, reflect the beliefs and expectations of the management board of directors of the Company and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, the achievement of the anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of the Company‟s recent acquisitions, the timely development and acceptance of new products, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals, and the impact of general business and global economic conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Neither the Company, nor any of its respective agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. This document has not been approved by any competent regulatory or supervisory authority. The information found in this presentation accompanied a speech delivered by Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch on 21 March 2011 at the UBS Critical Raw Materials seminar in Frankfurt, Germany. The presentation materials were intended to be taken in context with the verbal comments made by Dr. Heinz Schimmelbush at this seminar. 2
  • 4. AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. Listed: NYSE-Euronext Amsterdam: AMG Founded: 2006 Revenues: $990.5M Employees: 2,600 Production facilities: Netherlands, Germany, UK, USA, Brazil, France, Turkey, Canada, Czech Republic, China, Mexico, Belgium, India, Poland, Sri Lanka Enterprise Value: €560 million 52 week range: €6.25–€14.55 Recent share price: €14.49 (18 March 2011) 4
  • 5. Critical Raw Materials: AMG’s Involvement 1 2 H He Hydrogen Helium 1.0 4.0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 Li Be B C N O F Ne Beryllium Boron Carbon Nitrogen Oxygen Fluorine Neon Lithium 9.0 10.8 12.0 14.0 16.0 19.0 20.2 6.9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar Sodium Magnesium Aluminum Silicon Phosphorus Sulfur Chlorine Argon 23.0 24.3 27.0 28.1 31.0 32.1 35.5 40.0 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Potassium Calcium Scandium Titanium Vanadium Chromium Manganese Iron Cobalt Nickel Copper Zinc Gallium Germanium Arsenic Selenium Bromine Krypton 39.1 40.1 45.0 47.9 50.9 52.0 54.9 55.9 58.9 58.7 63.5 65.4 69.7 72.6 74.9 79.0 79.9 83.8 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe Rubidium Strontium Yitrium Zirconium Niobium Molybdenum Technetium Ruthenium Rhodium Palladium Silver Cadmium Indium Tin Antimony Tellurium Iodine Xenon 85.5 87.6 88.9 91.2 92.9 95.9 99 101.0 102.9 106.4 107.9 112.4 114.8 118.7 121.8 127.6 126.9 131.3 55 56 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Cs Ba 57-71 Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn Caesium Barium Hafnium Tantalum Tungsten Rhenium Osmium Iridium Platinum Gold Mercury Thallium Lead Bismuth Polonium Astatine Radon 132.9 137.4 178.5 181.0 183.9 186.2 190.2 192.2 195.1 197.0 200.6 204.4 207.2 209.0 210.0 210.0 222.0 87 88 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 Fr Ra 89-103 Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Uum Uut Uuq Uup Uuh Francium Radium Rutherfordlium Dubnium Seaborgium Bohrium Hassium Meitnerium Darmstadtium Roentgenium Ununbium Ununtrium Ununquadium Ununpentium Ununhexium 223.0 226.0 261 262 263 264 265 266 269 272 277 284 289 288 292 57 58 59 60 61 62 62 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 La Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Lanthanum Cerium Praseodymium Neodymium Promethium Samarium Europium Gadolinium Terbium Dysprosium Holmium Erbium Thallium Ytterbium Lutetium 138.9 140.1 140.9 144.2 147.0 150.4 152.0 157.3 158.9 162.5 164.9 167.3 168.9 173.0 175.0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Ac Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr Actinium Thorium Protactinium Uranium Neptunium Plutonium Americium Curium Berkelium Californium Einsteinium Fermium Mendelevium Nobelium Lawrencium 132.9 232.0 231.0 238.0 237.0 242.0 243.0 247.0 247.0 251.0 254.0 253.0 256.0 254.0 257.0 5
  • 6. Ti Alloys for Aerospace 6
  • 7. Technology Leaps Trigger Rapid Demand Growth  Consumer Electronics  Tantalum for capacitors  Aerospace  Titanium quantities for the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 is over 2.5 times the amount used on aircraft they are replacing  Solar  Silicon metal demand for solar applications was 180,000 tons  10% of global production  20% growth per annum estimated  Electric car “E-Car”  Mineral Lithium  Cathodes - 10-20% estimated growth per annum  Natural Graphite  Anodes  Nuclear waste solutions 7
  • 8. E-Cars – Natural Graphite → → Anode e- e- Cathode (Graphite) Separator (Lithium) − + Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ Nissan Leaf (25 kWh) BMW Mini EV (35 kWh) Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ Li+ One car* battery = 24 kg of graphite * Based on 30 kWh Electrolyte Electrolyte 2010 2015 Total Auto Sales (units) 70,169,000 91,872,000 % E-Car 1.1% 3.8% E-Car Sales (units) 774,000 3,484,000 Natural Graphite Needed (mt) 37,152 167,232 4.5x in 5 Years! 8 Sources: Credit Suisse, GK, company estimates
  • 9. Critical Metals and Technology Development Demand Growth Ti Mg Cr Sb Nb V Ta Si C Technology Development 9
  • 10. Critical Metals and Technology Development Ti Mg Cr Demand Growth Ta Sb Si Nb V C Technology Development 10
  • 11. Reserve Depletion and Big New Finds  Tantalum  Greenbushes Tin – Talison – Global Advanced Metals, Australia (founded 1889)  Niobium  CBMM, Brazil (founded 1955)  Molybdenum  Jin Dui Cheng, Shanxi Province, China (founded 1970s)  Rare Earths (“REE”)  Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, China (founded 1980s) All are still the world’s largest mines – the same as 30 years ago 11 (1) World Titanium Market 2009 PSC VSMPO-Avisma Corporation
  • 12. Recycling – Only a Partial Solution, but Growing  Hurdles  Lack of collection systems, unattractive economics  Lack of technologies, expensive development  Dissipation – metals “vanishing” into the end products  Conclusion  What can be (easily) recycled, is recycled  Rarely big technology developments 12 (1) AMG estimates
  • 13. Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand Severe Rapid Supply Demand Risk Growth Tantalum Niobium Magnesium Chromium Metal Graphite Silicon Metal Lithium Titanium Vanadium Cerium Limited Recycling Potential The world without government action 13 Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG
  • 14. Critical Raw Materials: Primary Supply, Recycling, Demand Severe Rapid Supply Demand Risk Growth Silicon Metal Titanium Tantalum Graphite Niobium Magnesium Vanadium Cerium Chromium Metal Lithium Limited Recycling Potential The world with government action 14 Source: Institute for Applied Technology, UNEP, July 2009; AMG
  • 15. Volatility Titanium Sponge Fe Vanadium $40,000 $70 $35,000 $60 $30,000 $50 $25,000 $40 $20,000 $30 $15,000 $10,000 $20 $5,000 $10 $0 $0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Antimony Silicon Metal $14,000 $4,500 $12,000 $4,000 $3,500 $10,000 $3,000 $8,000 $2,500 $6,000 $2,000 $1,500 $4,000 $1,000 $2,000 $500 $0 $0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 15 Sources: AMG, Bloomberg
  • 16. Volatility - Cerium $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 16 Sources: AMG, Bloomberg
  • 17. Critical Raw Materials: Definition 17
  • 18. Critical Raw Materials EU Definition  “The EU is highly dependent on imports of „high tech‟ metals such as cobalt, platinum, rare earths, and titanium. Such materials play an essential role in the development of innovative „environmental technologies‟ for boosting energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  Some raw materials can be considered to be particularly critical, because of three reasons:  their significant economic importance for key sectors  high supply risks  lack of substitutes” - ad hoc group of the Raw Materials Supply Group in a report to the European Commission, June 2010 18
  • 19. Critical Raw Materials EU Listing 14  The EU identified 14 critical raw materials to the European economy  Antimony  Indium  Beryllium  Magnesium  Cobalt  Niobium  Fluorspar  PGM  Gallium  Tungsten  Germanium  Tantalum  Graphite  Rare Earth 19 (1) EU Report on Critical Raw Materials, June 2010
  • 20. Critical Raw Materials “Critical” raw materials 20 (1) European Commission Annex V to the Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials
  • 21. Critical Raw Materials  In addition to the “EU 14” materials, AMG believes that following are critical based upon the EU criteria:  Vanadium (1)  Silicon metal  Titanium sponge (1)  Chromium metal  Mineral Lithium (1)  This critical list would include 11 materials that involve AMG That would bring the 14 “EU Critical Materials” to 19 21 (1) Included as “critical” by the U.S. National Academies (U.S. Congress‟ Scientific arm)
  • 22. Critical Raw Materials: Geography 22
  • 23. Critical Raw Materials – Government Controls Titanium Vanadium Chromium Magnesium Chromium Titanium Antimony Graphite Magnesium Antimony REE Magnesium Silicon Titanium Titanium Magnesium Vanadium Graphite Graphite Tantalum Tantalum Niobium Magnesium Tantalum Tantalum Vanadium Government Controls 23 Source: AMG
  • 24. Sovereign Strategies: an Interpretation
  • 25. Critical Raw Materials - Sovereign Strategies Sovereigns Reduced domestic production Foreign processors welcome to produce in country Export Restrictions Reduced depletion, environmental impact Acquisition of Global industry leadership foreign assets and headquartered in country technology Price increases 25
  • 26. China’s Position in Critical Minor Metals Metal Activity Trade Restrictions Market Share Antimony Mining Export Quotas 90%+ Tantalum Processor ----- 10% Silicon Metal Mining Tariffs 50%+ Vanadium Slag ----- 33% Graphite Mining, Smelting Tariffs 70% Titanium Sponge Production Tariffs 33% Niobium Processing ----- N/A Strontium Production Export Quotas 90%+ Cerium Mining Export Quotas 90%+ Chromium Metal Smelting ----- 50%+ Magnesium Production ----- 80%+ 26 Sources: AMG,
  • 27. Cerium Revisited Volatility will be even higher in the future 27 Sources: AMG
  • 28. Germany’s dependency on China – selected metals: Metal China’s Production Germany’s Import Rank Percentage Titanium 1 100 Vanadium 2 100 Silicon Metal 2 85 Chromium Metal 1 100 Strontium 1 100 28 Source: AMG
  • 29. Magnesium  Market Statistics Conclusion 29
  • 30. AMG’s Strategy ■ Serve growing end markets with high value-added specialty metal products and engineering solutions, related to CO2 reduction and conservation of natural resources ■ Execute through a combination of: ■ Vertical integration ■ Industry consolidation ■ Continuous investment in productivity and technology 30
  • 31. Conclusion  Minor Metals are essential to the global economy  Governments now have significant and increasing roles  Very attractive rewards, but very high barriers of entry  Due to technology, this will remain a long-term business 31