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Cross Shop/Product Affinity/Market
         Basket Analysis
                     http://www.Analytics-Tools.com




                                   Analytics-Tools.com
Insights &
              Introduction    Metrics Involved                               Process
                                                                                                       Application



What Are Co – Purchase Affinities ?
       A measure of how likely two products are to be purchased in same transaction/order or Basket. This is why
        this analysis is also called Market Basket analysis
       Some products have natural affinities for example Bread & butter, Shoe &Polish, hamburgers & Fries etc.
       There are also some which are not the most obvious like Beer & Diapers, Tuna & Toothpaste, Barbie dolls &
        some types of candy bars etc. These non-obvious affinities can only be discovered by analyzing the data
Obvious




                                                                                       Items #1 & #2




                                                                                                                     Affinity is seen in Green orders
                                                      Each Box is an Order
Non Obvious




                                                                                          Item #3
Insights &
                         Introduction        Metrics Involved               Process
                                                                                                     Application



Why Assess Product Affinity ?
  Lot of interesting insights can be drawn out by analyzing consumer's purchase basket. These insights
   can then be deployed across business units to improve overall profitability, productivity and consumer
   experience
  An important thing to keep in mind while analyzing baskets is to remove the effect of impulse purchases
  Driver items (items which lead to purchase of other items) identification can also be done by
   understanding co purchase behavior.
  Purchases of other products with drivers products is mostly done in the same order but for few products
   (technology products) may be purchased after a certain period of time (defined by the business, more on
   slide 10)
                                                   Insights at this                   1
                                                     level help in                        Understand Purchase Behavior
                           Power Category
                                                  layout decisions
                                                                                      2
 Stages of Application




                                                                                          Develop Cross Promotional Programs
                            Department
                                                                      Applicability
                                                                                      3
                                                                                          Redesigning Store Layout / Design
                              Category
                                                   Insights at this                   4
                                                                                          Discount Plans / Promotions
                                                     level help in
                            Sub Category
                                                    merchandise                       5
                                                       decisions                          Plano gram Designing

                                                                                      6
                           Fine line / SKU                                                Driver Items which lead to sales
Insights &
     Introduction         Metrics Involved           Process
                                                                        Application



What Metrics Are Involved?

  Support indicates prevalence of a product(s)



                                                  Out of all transactions             N Bread
                                                  how often bread is
                                                  bought ?                            N Total
                 1
     Support
                                                  Out of all transactions         N Butter
                                                  how often butter is
                                                  bought ?                        N Total
                                                  Out of all
           Indicator of                           transactions how          N Bread  Butter
           prevalence                             often both bread
               of a
            product(s)                            and butter were              NTotal
                                                  bought ?
Insights &
     Introduction           Metrics Involved         Process
                                                                           Application



What Metrics Are Involved?

  Confidence Indicates predictability of one product given other product is already in the basket



                                               How predictable is Bread given Butter in same basket ?



                    2                    Support Bread
                                                                                N Bread
   Confidence
                                       Support
                                             BreadAndButter                N Bread  Butter

                                               How predictable is Butter given Bread in same basket ?
          Indicator of
        predictability of
       one product given
                                          Support Butter
                                                                                 N Butter
         other product
                                        Support
                                              BreadAndButter                N Bread  Butter
Insights &
     Introduction                  Metrics Involved             Process
                                                                                  Application



What Metrics Are Involved?

  Lift indicates the likelihood of two products going together




                                                      What is the likelihood of Bread and Butter in same basket ?

                    3
        Lift
                                                       ConfidenceBread            ConfidenceButter
                                                        SupportButter              SupportBread

                  Indicator of
               likelihood of two                        NTotal N Bread Butter
                 product going
                    together
                                                          N Bread N Buter
Insights &
     Introduction                Metrics Involved                  Process
                                                                                             Application



What Metrics Are Involved?

  Illustration of lift computation

            Metric                      Description                          Number of Transactions with Bread                       100

                                    Proportion of transactions               Number of Transactions with Butter                      400
        Support of Bread
                                    with Bread
                                                                             Number of Transactions with Bread and Butter             50
                                    Proportion of transactions
        Support of Butter
                                    with Butter                              Total number of Transactions                            1,000

                                    Proportion of transactions
   Support of Bread and Butter
                                    with Bread and Butter

                                    (Support of Bread & Butter)                       Measure                         Description
      Confidence of Bread
                                    / (Support of Bread)
                                                                         Support of Bread                         100/1000 = 0.1
                                    ((Support of Bread & Butter)
      Confidence of Butter                                               Support of Butter                        400/1000 = 0.4
                                    / (Support of Butter)
                                                                         Support of Bread and Butter              50/1000 = 0.05
                                    (Proportion of transactions
                                    with Bread and Butter) /             Confidence of Bread                      0.05/0.1 = 0.5
                                    (Expected Number of
               Lift                 transactions with Bread and          Confidence of Butter                     0.05/0.4 = 0.125
                                    Butter if not related)
                                                                                                                  0.05(0.1*0.4) = 1.25
                                     (Confidence of Butter) /            Lift
                                    (Support of Bread only)                                                       0.125/0.1 = 1.25
Insights &
     Introduction                Metrics Involved                      Process
                                                                                              Application



What is the process?

Theory               1                                                                                              Driver Product

                                                                                                                    Product Purchased because
                                                      2                                   3                         of Driver Product

                                                                                                           30 Days Driver product drives
                                                                                                                     purchase for this period

                    Mar 12      Mar 13       Mar 14              Mar 18                       May 01

1 March 12 Product and its driver product purchased in the same order
2 March 14 qualifies as driver product purchased was purchased March 13 th, within 30 days
3 May 01 does not qualify as the driver product was purchased more than 30 days back.



Following are the steps involved in the process
  Transaction
                1                        2                       3                    4                5                        6
  Data




 Transaction                 Data is                  If existence         Stratified          Final SAS            SAS codes /
 data is                     cleaned,                 of segments          sampling is         datasets are         VBA macros
 sourced                     sliced diced             with unique          done over           created for          are run to
                             to avoid                 purchase             the dataset         each                 generate
                             aberrant                 behavior is          for analysis        consumer             product
                             seasonal                 seen,                viability           segment              affinity maps
                             behavior                 datasets are                                                  for each
                                                      split for them                                                segment
Insights &
   Introduction               Metrics Involved                                                        Process
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Application



What is the process?




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Digital Photography without Printers




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Drives & Misc without HD and USB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Circuit Protection Cables Etc
                                                                                              1           2                  3                 4             5                 6              7                         8                                  9               10 11 12 13 14 15 16




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Multi-Function Devices
                                                                                                                                                                                           Mass Storage - Other
                                                          Avg Category Sales -




                                                                                 Portable Computers
                                                                                                       Desktop Computers




                                                                                                                                                          Computer Monitors
                                                          Avg Basket Sales -
                                      % Single Category




                                                                                                                           Product Services
                                      (Cherry Picking)



                                                          Single Category


                                                                                 Multi Category




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Flash Memory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Inkjet Printers
                                                          Transactions


                                                                                 Transactions




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GPS Devices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        PC Cameras
                                                                                                                                              PC Memory


                                                                                                                                                                              Networking




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 MP3
   Row #    Affinity Category
   1        Portable Computers      25.6% $781                            $970               H         M                   H                  M           L                   H            L                         L                                    H                               M                                L            M            H                                  M                        L
   2        Desktop Computers       17.5% $611                            $819               M         H                   H                  M           H                   M            L                         L                                    H                               H                                             M            M                                  H
   3        Product Services          8.1%   $31                          $325               H         H                   H                  L           H                   M            M                         H                                    H                M              H                               H             M            M                                  H                        H
   4        PC Memory               52.7% $107                            $160               M         M                   L                  H           L                   L            M                                                                                                                                            L            M
   5        Computer Monitors       43.4% $257                            $398               L         H                   H                  L           H                   L            L                            L                                M                                M                                             L            M                                  M                        L
   6        Networking              50.2%    $69                          $125               H         M                   M                  L           L                   H            L                            I                                L                                H                                             L            M                                  L                        I
   7        Mass Storage - Other    49.4% $105                            $152               L         L                   M                  M           L                   L            H                                                                                L             L                                             L            M                                                           L
   8        Digital Photography without Printers
                                    16.9% $212                            $295               L         L                   H                              L                   I                                   H                                      M                  H                                                           L                                                  L                     L
   9        Inkjet Printers         18.9% $109                            $234               H         H                   H                              M                   L                                   M                                      H                  L               H                                                             L                                                      I
   10       Flash Memory            43.0%    $47                          $111                                             M                                                                  L                   H                                      L                  H                                             L              L                                                                       L
   11       Circuit Protection Cables Etc
                                    33.7%    $31                          $127               M          H                  H                              M                   H               L                                                          H                                H                               I              L           M                                   H
   12       GPS Devices             58.5% $262                            $296               L                             H                                                                                                                                                 L            I                               H                                                              I                       L
   13       PC Cameras              46.9%    $61                          $122               M         M                   M                  L           L                   L            L                            L                                                    L            L                                             H            M
   14       Drives & Misc without HD and USB
                                    40.4%    $44                          $106               H         M                   M                  M           M                   M            M                                                               L                              M                                             M            H                                   L
   15       Multi-Function Devices 19.0% $183                             $285               M         H                   H                              M                   L                                         L                                                                 H                                I                         L                                   H
   16       MP3                     50.9% $101                            $143               L                             H                              L                   I               L                         L                                    I               L                                             L                                                                                     H
                      Legend

    H   High likelihood of purchasing together                      One easy way to visualize product affinity is to create
    M   Moderate likelihood of purchasing together                   Product Affinity Maps
    L   Low likelihood of purchasing together
        May or may not be purchased together                        Product affinity maps have categories as columns and
    I   Infrequently purchased togeher                               rows. The color of the cells tells how often the two
    R   Rarely purchased together
                                                                     categories (row-column) have been purchased together
Insights &
         Introduction                               Metrics Involved                                                        Process
                                                                                                                                                                Application



How to separate impulse behavior with externalities?
 Affinity grids are superimposed over grids with information on externalities
1                                                                                                                             2
                  Men's Wear




                                                                                                                Swim Wear
                               Boy's Wear




                                                                                                                                                   Men's Wear




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Swim Wear
                                                                                Sleepwear




                                                                                                                                                                Boy's Wear




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sleepwear
                                                                                                Intimates




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Intimates
                                                                      Hosiery
                                                    Infants




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Hosiery
                                                                                                  Ladies




                                                                                                                                                                                     Infants
                                            Shoes



                                                              Socks




                                                                                                  Wear




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ladies
                                                                                                                                                                             Shoes



                                                                                                                                                                                                Socks




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Wear
    Men's Wear                 M            M       H         H       M         M           M       I           R                 Men's Wear          P     P    P                             NP       NP         P            NP   P       P
    Boy's Wear    M                         H       I         H       H         H           R       M           M                 Boy's Wear     P          P   NP                             NP       P          P            P    NP      P
        Shoes     M            H                    M         M       H         M           H       H           H                     Shoes      P    P          P                             P        P          NP           P    NP      NP
       Infants    H            I            M                 L       I         H           H       H           M                    Infants     P   NP P                                      P        NP         NP           P    P       NP
        Socks     H            H            M       L                 M         M           M       H           M                     Socks     NP NP P          P                                      P          P            NP   NP      NP
       Hosiery    M            H            H       I         M                 H           H       I           H                    Hosiery    NP P        P   NP                             P                   P            P    NP      NP
     Sleepwear    M            H            M       H         M       H                     M       M           L                  Sleepwear     P    P    NP NP                               P   P                            P    P       P
     Intimates    M            R            H       H         M       H         M                   H           L                  Intimates    NP P        P    P                             NP P     P                            P       NP
    Ladies Wear   I            M            H       H         H       I         M           H                   M                 Ladies Wear    P   NP NP P                                   NP NP P       P                               P
    Swim Wear     R            M            H       M         M       H         L           L       M                             Swim Wear      P    P    NP NP                               NP NP P       NP P
                                                                                                                                    Promotion done for categories                              No Promotion done for categories

                                                                                                                               Hosiery



                                                                                                                               Intimat
                                                                                                                               Sleepw
                                                                                                      Infants




                                                                                                                                Ladies
                                                              Men's




                                                                                            Shoes




                                                                                                                  Socks
                                                              Wear

                                                              Wear




                                                                                                                                Wear

                                                                                                                                Wear
                                                                                                                                Swim
                                                              Boy's




                                                                                                                                 ear

                                                                                                                                  es
     1
                               Men's Wear                                                                       
                               Boy's Wear                                                                       
                                   Shoes                                                                                                                                           Products that demonstrate impulse
                                  Infants                                                                                                                                           based higher affinity
                                   Socks                                                                                                     
                                  Hosiery                                                                                                                       
                                Sleepwear                                                           
                                Intimates
    2                          Ladies Wear                                                                     
                               Swim Wear                                                                                    
Insights &
                                         Introduction        Metrics Involved             Process
                                                                                                                  Application



How to read insights ?
Organizational focus on Profitability




                                                                                                     Place high affinity products at an optimal
                                        High                                                          distance so that Customer satisfaction is not
                                                Place High affinity products at a distance           compromised
                                                                                                     Place high margin / impulsive and related
                                                                                                      products in between


                                                Irrelevant case as organization has shed $ for
                                                                                                     Place all high affinity products together
                                                 analysis


                                        Low
                                                                       Organizational focus on Customer Satisfaction                       High
Lets take the example of Barbie and Candy bar.
 Placement- Highest margin candy can be placed near dolls or as Marketers know, that for every extra
  minute of 'quality' time that one spends in a store, there is a high degree of likelihood that that person will
  spend one extra dollar in that store (research states that this is true for large retail stores). With this in
  mind, one can place Barbie dolls in one corner (Toys section) and Candy in a section that is further away
  from the Toys section. And, in the path that lies between these two sections, place special 'Kid' items -
  which may be either promotion items, high margin items, retailers own brand items etc.
 Promotions- By increasing the price of Barbie doll and giving the type of candy bar free, special
  promotions for Barbie dolls with candy at a slightly higher margin, coupons for dolls and candy
 Discounts from Manufactures- Exploit discovered associations with the companies who manufacture the
  products with tie-ins

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Cross shop analysis

  • 1. Cross Shop/Product Affinity/Market Basket Analysis http://www.Analytics-Tools.com Analytics-Tools.com
  • 2. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What Are Co – Purchase Affinities ?  A measure of how likely two products are to be purchased in same transaction/order or Basket. This is why this analysis is also called Market Basket analysis  Some products have natural affinities for example Bread & butter, Shoe &Polish, hamburgers & Fries etc.  There are also some which are not the most obvious like Beer & Diapers, Tuna & Toothpaste, Barbie dolls & some types of candy bars etc. These non-obvious affinities can only be discovered by analyzing the data Obvious Items #1 & #2 Affinity is seen in Green orders Each Box is an Order Non Obvious Item #3
  • 3. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application Why Assess Product Affinity ?  Lot of interesting insights can be drawn out by analyzing consumer's purchase basket. These insights can then be deployed across business units to improve overall profitability, productivity and consumer experience  An important thing to keep in mind while analyzing baskets is to remove the effect of impulse purchases  Driver items (items which lead to purchase of other items) identification can also be done by understanding co purchase behavior.  Purchases of other products with drivers products is mostly done in the same order but for few products (technology products) may be purchased after a certain period of time (defined by the business, more on slide 10) Insights at this 1 level help in Understand Purchase Behavior Power Category layout decisions 2 Stages of Application Develop Cross Promotional Programs Department Applicability 3 Redesigning Store Layout / Design Category Insights at this 4 Discount Plans / Promotions level help in Sub Category merchandise 5 decisions Plano gram Designing 6 Fine line / SKU Driver Items which lead to sales
  • 4. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What Metrics Are Involved?  Support indicates prevalence of a product(s) Out of all transactions N Bread how often bread is bought ? N Total 1 Support Out of all transactions N Butter how often butter is bought ? N Total Out of all Indicator of transactions how N Bread  Butter prevalence often both bread of a product(s) and butter were NTotal bought ?
  • 5. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What Metrics Are Involved?  Confidence Indicates predictability of one product given other product is already in the basket How predictable is Bread given Butter in same basket ? 2 Support Bread N Bread Confidence Support BreadAndButter N Bread  Butter How predictable is Butter given Bread in same basket ? Indicator of predictability of one product given Support Butter N Butter other product Support BreadAndButter N Bread  Butter
  • 6. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What Metrics Are Involved?  Lift indicates the likelihood of two products going together What is the likelihood of Bread and Butter in same basket ? 3 Lift ConfidenceBread ConfidenceButter SupportButter SupportBread Indicator of likelihood of two NTotal N Bread Butter product going together N Bread N Buter
  • 7. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What Metrics Are Involved?  Illustration of lift computation Metric Description Number of Transactions with Bread 100 Proportion of transactions Number of Transactions with Butter 400 Support of Bread with Bread Number of Transactions with Bread and Butter 50 Proportion of transactions Support of Butter with Butter Total number of Transactions 1,000 Proportion of transactions Support of Bread and Butter with Bread and Butter (Support of Bread & Butter) Measure Description Confidence of Bread / (Support of Bread) Support of Bread 100/1000 = 0.1 ((Support of Bread & Butter) Confidence of Butter Support of Butter 400/1000 = 0.4 / (Support of Butter) Support of Bread and Butter 50/1000 = 0.05 (Proportion of transactions with Bread and Butter) / Confidence of Bread 0.05/0.1 = 0.5 (Expected Number of Lift transactions with Bread and Confidence of Butter 0.05/0.4 = 0.125 Butter if not related) 0.05(0.1*0.4) = 1.25 (Confidence of Butter) / Lift (Support of Bread only) 0.125/0.1 = 1.25
  • 8. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What is the process? Theory 1 Driver Product Product Purchased because 2 3 of Driver Product 30 Days Driver product drives purchase for this period Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 18 May 01 1 March 12 Product and its driver product purchased in the same order 2 March 14 qualifies as driver product purchased was purchased March 13 th, within 30 days 3 May 01 does not qualify as the driver product was purchased more than 30 days back. Following are the steps involved in the process Transaction 1 2 3 4 5 6 Data Transaction Data is If existence Stratified Final SAS SAS codes / data is cleaned, of segments sampling is datasets are VBA macros sourced sliced diced with unique done over created for are run to to avoid purchase the dataset each generate aberrant behavior is for analysis consumer product seasonal seen, viability segment affinity maps behavior datasets are for each split for them segment
  • 9. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application What is the process? Digital Photography without Printers Drives & Misc without HD and USB Circuit Protection Cables Etc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Multi-Function Devices Mass Storage - Other Avg Category Sales - Portable Computers Desktop Computers Computer Monitors Avg Basket Sales - % Single Category Product Services (Cherry Picking) Single Category Multi Category Flash Memory Inkjet Printers Transactions Transactions GPS Devices PC Cameras PC Memory Networking MP3 Row # Affinity Category 1 Portable Computers 25.6% $781 $970 H M H M L H L L H M L M H M L 2 Desktop Computers 17.5% $611 $819 M H H M H M L L H H M M H 3 Product Services 8.1% $31 $325 H H H L H M M H H M H H M M H H 4 PC Memory 52.7% $107 $160 M M L H L L M L M 5 Computer Monitors 43.4% $257 $398 L H H L H L L L M M L M M L 6 Networking 50.2% $69 $125 H M M L L H L I L H L M L I 7 Mass Storage - Other 49.4% $105 $152 L L M M L L H L L L M L 8 Digital Photography without Printers 16.9% $212 $295 L L H L I H M H L L L 9 Inkjet Printers 18.9% $109 $234 H H H M L M H L H L I 10 Flash Memory 43.0% $47 $111 M L H L H L L L 11 Circuit Protection Cables Etc 33.7% $31 $127 M H H M H L H H I L M H 12 GPS Devices 58.5% $262 $296 L H L I H I L 13 PC Cameras 46.9% $61 $122 M M M L L L L L L L H M 14 Drives & Misc without HD and USB 40.4% $44 $106 H M M M M M M L M M H L 15 Multi-Function Devices 19.0% $183 $285 M H H M L L H I L H 16 MP3 50.9% $101 $143 L H L I L L I L L H Legend H High likelihood of purchasing together  One easy way to visualize product affinity is to create M Moderate likelihood of purchasing together Product Affinity Maps L Low likelihood of purchasing together May or may not be purchased together  Product affinity maps have categories as columns and I Infrequently purchased togeher rows. The color of the cells tells how often the two R Rarely purchased together categories (row-column) have been purchased together
  • 10. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application How to separate impulse behavior with externalities?  Affinity grids are superimposed over grids with information on externalities 1 2 Men's Wear Swim Wear Boy's Wear Men's Wear Swim Wear Sleepwear Boy's Wear Sleepwear Intimates Intimates Hosiery Infants Hosiery Ladies Infants Shoes Socks Wear Ladies Shoes Socks Wear Men's Wear M M H H M M M I R Men's Wear P P P NP NP P NP P P Boy's Wear M H I H H H R M M Boy's Wear P P NP NP P P P NP P Shoes M H M M H M H H H Shoes P P P P P NP P NP NP Infants H I M L I H H H M Infants P NP P P NP NP P P NP Socks H H M L M M M H M Socks NP NP P P P P NP NP NP Hosiery M H H I M H H I H Hosiery NP P P NP P P P NP NP Sleepwear M H M H M H M M L Sleepwear P P NP NP P P P P P Intimates M R H H M H M H L Intimates NP P P P NP P P P NP Ladies Wear I M H H H I M H M Ladies Wear P NP NP P NP NP P P P Swim Wear R M H M M H L L M Swim Wear P P NP NP NP NP P NP P Promotion done for categories No Promotion done for categories Hosiery Intimat Sleepw Infants Ladies Men's Shoes Socks Wear Wear Wear Wear Swim Boy's ear es 1 Men's Wear  Boy's Wear  Shoes   Products that demonstrate impulse Infants  based higher affinity Socks    Hosiery  Sleepwear  Intimates 2 Ladies Wear   Swim Wear  
  • 11. Insights & Introduction Metrics Involved Process Application How to read insights ? Organizational focus on Profitability  Place high affinity products at an optimal High distance so that Customer satisfaction is not  Place High affinity products at a distance compromised  Place high margin / impulsive and related products in between  Irrelevant case as organization has shed $ for  Place all high affinity products together analysis Low Organizational focus on Customer Satisfaction High Lets take the example of Barbie and Candy bar.  Placement- Highest margin candy can be placed near dolls or as Marketers know, that for every extra minute of 'quality' time that one spends in a store, there is a high degree of likelihood that that person will spend one extra dollar in that store (research states that this is true for large retail stores). With this in mind, one can place Barbie dolls in one corner (Toys section) and Candy in a section that is further away from the Toys section. And, in the path that lies between these two sections, place special 'Kid' items - which may be either promotion items, high margin items, retailers own brand items etc.  Promotions- By increasing the price of Barbie doll and giving the type of candy bar free, special promotions for Barbie dolls with candy at a slightly higher margin, coupons for dolls and candy  Discounts from Manufactures- Exploit discovered associations with the companies who manufacture the products with tie-ins