SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  8
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Perseverance
                                                in challenging times.
                                                                                                                                     E D U C AT E D I N V E S T O R




                                                Is This What Buying Low Feels Like?
                                                We regularly hear the investment mantra “buy low and sell high,” which sounds
                                                like an easy strategy to follow. However, many investors fail to execute that
                                                rule because times like these show us what buying low really feels like — it’s
                                                emotionally hard.

                                                As many wonder whether we have reached the bottom of the bear market and
                                                what may happen next, now is a crucial time for investors to make decisions about
                                                how they will position their portfolios going forward. Below, we provide several
                                                historical examples that may help investors decide if now is the right time to
                                                “buy low.”


                                                Reasons for Investing in the Equity Markets Now
                                                Trying to Time the Market Bottom
                                                Many investors worry about timing the investment of their assets in the markets.
                                                During periods of extreme volatility, they wonder whether they should wait until
                                                they are sure the market has bounced back from its low before investing their
                                                money. We believe timing the tops and bottoms of markets is difficult to achieve
                                                with any precision. Let’s look at some illustrations to evaluate the effectiveness and
                                                potential drawbacks of trying to identify a market bottom.




This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
*TRadITIoNaL vs. CoRE                           First, let’s take a look at the scenario of investing $1 million halfway into the
aNd saTELLITE INvEsTINg
                                                decline of the 2000-2002 bear market, a period in which the S&P 500 declined
a traditional portfolio                         by approximately 48% at its worst point. In this example, that $1 million would
typically involves a mix of                     have grown to approximately $1.5 million five years later if invested in a traditional
U.S. stocks, investment                         portfolio. Alternatively, a $1 million investment in a more broadly diversified Core
grade bonds and perhaps
                                                and Satellite* portfolio would have grown to $1.8 million in 2006. So, although
some international stocks.
                                                this hypothetical investor “got in too early” by investing before the equity market
In Core and satellite portfolio                 hit bottom, they actually realized attractive gains after waiting through the
design, core investments                        subsequent decline and recovery.
provide a broad foundation
comprising U.S. stocks, U.S.                    EXHIBIT 1: S&P 500 — InveSTIng $1 MIllIon (MM) Half-Way DoWn 3/24/2000–10/23/2006
fixed income and developed
market international equities.                                                                                      Value of $1MM Investment at Peak:
The main types of risk inherent                                                                                     S&P 500 Index = $1.00MM
                                                                                                                    Traditional = $1.48MM
in these investments are
                                                  Index Levels                                                      Core/Satellite = $1.80MM
those naturally associated
with bond and stock                                1500
market returns — interest                                                             Invest $1MM at bear
rate and equity market                                                                market mid-point
                                                   1300
risk (similar to the risk in
a traditional portfolio).                          1100
Investors then surround
their core holdings with                             900
satellite investments such as
emerging market debt, real                           700
                                                                           6/24/01
                                                           6/24/00




                                                                                                                         6/24/04




                                                                                                                                                        6/24/06
                                                                                                         6/24/03
                                                                                          6/24/02




                                                                                                                                         6/24/05
estate securities and high
yield bonds, etc. although
these investments introduce
                                                Source: gSaM 3/24/00-10/23/06. Please see appendix for asset allocation breakdowns for Traditional and Core/
new types of portfolio risk,                    Satellite Portfolios.
they can also offer strong                      Returns include cash returns from peak to mid point. The hypothetical historical returns were created with the
diversification benefits and                    benefit of hindsight using the percentage allocations shown in the appendix. Simulated performance results do
                                                not reflect actual trading and have inherent limitations. Please see additional disclosures. any changes will have
opportunities for skilled                       an impact on the hypothetical historical performance results, which could be material. Hypothetical performance
portfolio managers to capture                   results have many inherent limitations and no representation is being made that any investor will, or is likely to
excess returns. Whatever                        achieve, performance similar to that shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical
                                                performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved. Portfolios are comprised of underlying indices.
the combination of satellites                   See appendix for Benchmarks and Blend allocation.
added to complement the core
of a portfolio, the goal is to
                                                Now, let’s contrast these figures to a hypothetical investor who said “I’m going to
ensure that investors benefit
                                                wait until the markets have clearly bounced back before investing my money” and
from the risk they assume.
                                                deployed their $1 million halfway up during the recovery.




2    This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
EXHIBIT 2: S&P 500 — InveSTIng $1 MIllIon (MM) Half-Way UP 3/24/2000–10/23/2006

                                                                     Value of $1MM Investment at Peak:
                                                                     S&P 500 Index = $1.00MM
                                                                     Traditional = $1.43MM
  Index Levels                                                       Core/Satellite = $1.52MM

  1500
                                          Invest $1MM at bear
                                          market mid-point
  1300

   1100

    900

    700
                          6/24/01




                                                          6/24/03




                                                                         6/24/04




                                                                                                        6/24/06
           6/24/00




                                          6/24/02




                                                                                        6/24/05
Source: gSaM. Please see appendix for asset allocation breakdowns for Traditional and Core/Satellite Portfolios.
Returns include cash returns from peak to mid point of recovery. The hypothetical historical returns were created
with the benefit of hindsight using the percentage allocations shown in the appendix. Simulated performance
results do not reflect actual trading and have inherent limitations. Please see additional disclosures. any changes
will have an impact on the hypothetical historical performance results, which could be material. Hypothetical
performance results have many inherent limitations and no representation is being made that any investor will,
or is likely to achieve, performance similar to that shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between
hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved. Portfolios are comprised of
underlying indices. See appendix for Benchmarks and Blend allocation.


In this example, that $1 million would have grown to approximately $1.4
million by October 2006 if invested in a traditional portfolio as compared to
approximately $1.5 million if invested in a more broadly diversified Core and
Satellite portfolio. Compared to the previous hypothetical investor who invested
while the market was still headed downward, this investor had accumulated less
wealth regardless of their chosen portfolio structure.

The bottom line? In this example, trying to guess the “right” time to get into the
market, and/or waiting until the worst was over and the market began to rebound,
did not prove to be an effective strategy.




This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.   3
avoid the Possibility of Missing the Rebound
                                               Although bear markets can be painful for investors, from a historical perspective,
                                               they are less prevalent than market gains using the S&P 500 Index as a proxy.
                                               Consider that from 1926 through 2008, investors have been rewarded over time
                                               with more positive years than negative years. In addition, the positive return years,
                                               on average, have been greater than the negative return years.

                                               EXHIBIT 3: S&P CalenDaR yeaRS

                                                 1926 –2008                                          negaTIve yeaRS                    PoSITIve yeaRS
                                                 average Return                                             –14%                              +22%
                                                 number of years                                          24 (29%)                          59 (71%)

                                               Source: gSaM, lipper


                                               So let’s visit some of the specific “buy low” examples from the past. The picture
                                               below highlights some of the worst periods of U.S. equity performance in history,
                                               similar to what investors experienced in 2008. For those investors who were able
                                               to overcome their emotions and “buy low,” they were rewarded with large port-
                                               folio gains in the subsequent year. For investors who could not maintain a long
                                               term investment focus and reduced their equity exposure, they locked in losses by
                                               “buying high and selling low,” the exact opposite of what they say they want to do.

                                               EXHIBIT 4: S&P 500 CalenDaR yeaR anD ToTal annUalIZeD ReTURnS
                                                 S&P 500 CALENDAR YEAR AND TOTAL ANNUALIZED RETURNS
                                                 DURING DURIng ReSPeCTIve BeaR MaRKeT PeRIoDS
                                                          BEAR MARKET PERIODS

                                                 1930: –24.9% 1931: –43.3% 1932: –8.2%                   1930–1932: –61.0%               1933: 54.0%

                                                                                                               1937: –35.0%              1938: 31.1%

                                                                         1973–1974: –37.2%
                                                                   1973: –14.7% 1974: –26.5%             1973–1974: –37.2%               1975: 37.2%

                                                  2000: –9.1% 2001: –11.9% 2002: –22.1%                  2000–2002: –37.6%               2003: 28.7%

                                                                                                               2008: –38.5%                   ???

                                               Source: gSaM, lipper


                                               In summary, we believe that although “buying low and selling high” may be
                                               hard to execute from an emotional perspective, it is important to work with one’s
                                               financial advisor to follow that age-old advice when appropriate. And, if you do
                                               decide this is a good opportunity to “buy low,” we believe a broadly diversified
                                               Core and Satellite investment approach offers a prudent strategy to help investors
                                               achieve their long-term investment goals.

                                               For more information on how to diversify your portfolio with a Core and
                                               satellite approach, please contact your Financial advisor.


4   This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Risk Considerations
equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Small
and mid-sized company stocks involve greater risks than those customarily associated
with larger companies.
Bonds are subject to interest rate, price and credit risks. Prices tend to be inversely
affected by changes in interest rates.
Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements,
commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular
industry or commodity.
emerging markets securities may be less liquid and more volatile and are subject
to a number of additional risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations and
political instability.
foreign securities may be more volatile than investments in U.S. securities and will be
subject to a number of additional risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations
and political developments.
High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater
credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities.
an investment in real estate securities is subject to greater price volatility and the
special risks associated with direct ownership of real estate.


appendix
exHIBITS 1, 2
                                                                          TRadITIoNaL          CoRE/saTELLITE
assET CLassEs                                BENCHMaRk                    PoRTFoLIo            PoRTFoLIo
U.S. large Cap                               S&P 500 Index                        55.0%                    16.7%
U.S. Mid Cap                                 Russell Mid Cap                          —                     6.6%
U.S. Small Cap value                         Ibbotson associates                      —                     1.8%
                                             compiled
U.S. Small Cap growth                        Ibbotson associates                      —                     1.8%
                                             compiled
International equity                         MSCI eafe                            15.0%                    22.1%
U.S. fixed Income                            Barclays aggregate                   30.0%                    21.0%
                                             Bond
Commodities                                  S&P/gSCI                                 —                     6.3%
U.S. ReITs                                   fTSe naReIT                              —                     1.5%
U.S. High yield Bond                         Ibbotson associates                      —                     1.6%
                                             compiled
emerging Markets equity                      MSCI eMf                                 —                     6.8%
emerging Markets Debt                        JPM eMBI                                 —                     7.4%
International Small Cap                      S&P/Citi eMI World ex                    —                     3.9%
                                             US TR
International ReITs                          fTSe glbl ReITs ex US                    —                    2.5%
                                                                                   100%                    100%




This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.   5
Index definitions
                                               The s&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index
                                               of common stock prices. The Index is unmanaged and the figures for the Index do not include any
                                               deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
                                               Ibbotson associates® is a leading authority on asset allocation with expertise in capital market
                                               expectations and portfolio implementation. approaching portfolio construction from the top-down
                                               through a research-based investment process, its experienced consultants and portfolio managers serve
                                               mutual fund firms, banks, broker-dealers, and insurance companies worldwide. Ibbotson associates’
                                               methodologies and services address all investment phases, from accumulation to retirement and the
                                               transition between the two.
                                               The unmanaged MsCI EaFE Index (unhedged) is a market capitalization-weighted composite of
                                               securities in 21 developed markets. The Index is unmanaged and the figures for the Index do not include
                                               any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
                                               The Barclays Capital U.s. aggregate Index represents an unmanaged diversified portfolio of fixed-
                                               income securities, including U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and mortgage-backed
                                               and asset-backed securities. The Index figures do not reflect any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes.
                                               It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
                                               U.s. Three-Month Treasury Bills mature in three months. like zero-coupon bonds, they do not pay
                                               interest prior to maturity; instead they are sold at a discount of the par value to create a positive yield to
                                               maturity. Many regard Treasury bills as the least risky investment available to U.S. investors.
                                               The FTsE NaREIT U.s. Real Estate Index series is designed to present investors with a comprehensive
                                               family of ReIT performance indexes that span the commercial real estate space across the U.S.
                                               economy, offering exposure to all investment and property sectors.
                                               The s&P goldman sachs Commodity Index (gsCI) is a composite index of commodity sector returns
                                               which represents a broadly diversified, unleveraged, long-only position in commodity futures. Standard
                                               & Poor’s® and S&P ® are registered trademarks of The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and gSCI™ is a
                                               trademark of The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by goldman, Sachs & Co.
                                               The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity
                                               universe. The Russell Midcap Index is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index. It includes approximately 800
                                               of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The
                                               Russell Midcap Index represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000
                                               companies.
                                               The MsCI EMF Index is the Morgan Stanley Capital International’s market capitalization weighted index
                                               composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in
                                               europe, latin america, and the Pacific Basin. The MSCI eMf Index excludes closed markets and those
                                               shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners.
                                               The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (JPM EMBI) covers U.S.dollar-denominated Brady bonds,
                                               loans and eurobonds. Brady Bonds are dollar-denominated bonds, issued mostly by latin american
                                               countries in the 1980s, named after U.S. Treasury Secretary nicholas Brady.
                                               s&P Citigroup EMI global Ex-U.s. measures the bottom 20% of institutionally investable capital of
                                               developed and emerging (after 9/30/1994) countries, selected by the index sponsor, outside the United
                                               States.
                                               The FTsE global REIT ex-U.s. Index measures the stock performance of companies engaged in the
                                               ownership, disposure and development of the Canadian, european and asian real estate markets.




6   This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
disclosures
These examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not actual results. If any assumptions used
do not prove to be true, results may vary substantially.
Simulated performance is hypothetical and may not take into account material economic and
market factors that would impact the adviser’s decision-making. Simulated results are achieved by
retroactively applying a model with the benefit of hindsight. The results reflect the reinvestment of
dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect fees, transaction costs, and other expenses, which
would reduce returns. actual results will vary.
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of dividends but do not
reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest
directly in indices.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based
economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment
advice. Please see additional disclosures.
This material has been prepared by gSaM and is not a product of the goldman Sachs global
Investment Research (gIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of
the gIR Department or other departments or divisions of goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors
are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This
information may not be current and gSaM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.
opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. no part of
this material may, without gSaM’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in
any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or
authorized agent of the recipient.
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment
advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not
guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without
independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from
public sources.
views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a
recommendation by gSaM to buy, sell, or hold any security. views and opinions are current as
of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as
investment advice.
IRs Circular 230 disclosure: goldman Sachs does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. any
statement contained in this communication (including any attachments) concerning U.S. tax matters
is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding penalties
imposed on the relevant taxpayer. Clients of goldman Sachs should obtain their own independent tax
advice based on their particular circumstances.




This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.   7
Copyright 2009, goldman, Sachs & Co. all Rights Reserved.
Date of first Use: february 20, 2009 / 18685.Mf / PeRS-eI3

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Value Investing Seminar July 2009
Value Investing Seminar July 2009Value Investing Seminar July 2009
Value Investing Seminar July 2009fitzgeralddon
 
Index investing
Index investingIndex investing
Index investingszrehman
 
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011c_lambeth
 
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09Prescient Partners
 
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...Jan Bolmeson
 
Investing in small cap stocks
Investing in small cap stocksInvesting in small cap stocks
Investing in small cap stocksAnne Robert
 
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12mullarkea
 
Missed Fortune
Missed FortuneMissed Fortune
Missed Fortuneadamauten
 
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...Mangesh Sonawane
 
The intelligent investor
The intelligent investorThe intelligent investor
The intelligent investorManoj bhuma
 
The Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent InvestorThe Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent InvestorGurudatt Rao
 
Speculation vs investment
Speculation vs investmentSpeculation vs investment
Speculation vs investmentAnjiyaa
 
Investment Basics
Investment BasicsInvestment Basics
Investment Basicstimpco
 

Tendances (20)

Value Investing Seminar July 2009
Value Investing Seminar July 2009Value Investing Seminar July 2009
Value Investing Seminar July 2009
 
Index investing
Index investingIndex investing
Index investing
 
Guide to Investing
Guide to InvestingGuide to Investing
Guide to Investing
 
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011
Bespoke Dfm & Market Update Oct 2011
 
Investing
InvestingInvesting
Investing
 
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09
Hybrid Portfolio Theory, 6.17.09
 
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...
#215 - Investera i investmentbolag | Del 3 av 4 - Tenderar att ha samma avkas...
 
Basics of Investment
Basics of InvestmentBasics of Investment
Basics of Investment
 
Introduction to investment
Introduction to investmentIntroduction to investment
Introduction to investment
 
Investing in small cap stocks
Investing in small cap stocksInvesting in small cap stocks
Investing in small cap stocks
 
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12
Use credit union investment basics seminar 3 27 12
 
Missed Fortune
Missed FortuneMissed Fortune
Missed Fortune
 
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
 
The intelligent investor
The intelligent investorThe intelligent investor
The intelligent investor
 
The Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent InvestorThe Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent Investor
 
Wealth Management Investor guide
Wealth Management Investor guideWealth Management Investor guide
Wealth Management Investor guide
 
Pradeep
PradeepPradeep
Pradeep
 
Speculation vs investment
Speculation vs investmentSpeculation vs investment
Speculation vs investment
 
Investment Basics
Investment BasicsInvestment Basics
Investment Basics
 
ETFs apalancados by Direxion
ETFs apalancados by DirexionETFs apalancados by Direxion
ETFs apalancados by Direxion
 

En vedette

Process improvement - preparing for process improvement
Process improvement  - preparing for process improvementProcess improvement  - preparing for process improvement
Process improvement - preparing for process improvementiandavidjames
 
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZ
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZGuia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZ
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZmoniki
 
Life to Eagle Process Overview
Life to Eagle Process Overview				Life to Eagle Process Overview
Life to Eagle Process Overview roused75
 
Smartphones in the classroom
Smartphones in the classroomSmartphones in the classroom
Smartphones in the classroomMarion Stamps
 
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINES
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINESTasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINES
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINESGloveries
 
Ppt Presentations Best Methods
Ppt Presentations Best MethodsPpt Presentations Best Methods
Ppt Presentations Best MethodsFlagler College
 
Cecyt 2009
Cecyt 2009Cecyt 2009
Cecyt 2009moniki
 
Cecyt 2008
Cecyt 2008Cecyt 2008
Cecyt 2008moniki
 
Daystar elc presentation
Daystar elc presentationDaystar elc presentation
Daystar elc presentationGloveries
 
Business Support Services
Business Support ServicesBusiness Support Services
Business Support Servicesasankar24
 
The living room library @ tamworth library
The living room library @ tamworth libraryThe living room library @ tamworth library
The living room library @ tamworth libraryPam Langridge
 
The State of Agriculture in Nigeria
The State of Agriculture in NigeriaThe State of Agriculture in Nigeria
The State of Agriculture in NigeriaGloveries
 
How to REALLY improve teamwork.
How to REALLY improve teamwork.How to REALLY improve teamwork.
How to REALLY improve teamwork.iandavidjames
 
Agriculture in Nigeria
 Agriculture in Nigeria Agriculture in Nigeria
Agriculture in NigeriaGloveries
 
Mc carthy proposal
Mc carthy proposalMc carthy proposal
Mc carthy proposalGloveries
 

En vedette (16)

Process improvement - preparing for process improvement
Process improvement  - preparing for process improvementProcess improvement  - preparing for process improvement
Process improvement - preparing for process improvement
 
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZ
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZGuia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZ
Guia De Aprendizaje CECYTEZ
 
Life to Eagle Process Overview
Life to Eagle Process Overview				Life to Eagle Process Overview
Life to Eagle Process Overview
 
Smartphones in the classroom
Smartphones in the classroomSmartphones in the classroom
Smartphones in the classroom
 
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINES
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINESTasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINES
Tasly RAISING A NEW SET OF DOWNLINES
 
Ppt Presentations Best Methods
Ppt Presentations Best MethodsPpt Presentations Best Methods
Ppt Presentations Best Methods
 
Cecyt 2009
Cecyt 2009Cecyt 2009
Cecyt 2009
 
Cecyt 2008
Cecyt 2008Cecyt 2008
Cecyt 2008
 
Daystar elc presentation
Daystar elc presentationDaystar elc presentation
Daystar elc presentation
 
Business Support Services
Business Support ServicesBusiness Support Services
Business Support Services
 
Asianpain
AsianpainAsianpain
Asianpain
 
The living room library @ tamworth library
The living room library @ tamworth libraryThe living room library @ tamworth library
The living room library @ tamworth library
 
The State of Agriculture in Nigeria
The State of Agriculture in NigeriaThe State of Agriculture in Nigeria
The State of Agriculture in Nigeria
 
How to REALLY improve teamwork.
How to REALLY improve teamwork.How to REALLY improve teamwork.
How to REALLY improve teamwork.
 
Agriculture in Nigeria
 Agriculture in Nigeria Agriculture in Nigeria
Agriculture in Nigeria
 
Mc carthy proposal
Mc carthy proposalMc carthy proposal
Mc carthy proposal
 

Similaire à Persevering through challenging markets

Wealth strategy understanding risks & portfolio creation
Wealth strategy  understanding risks & portfolio creationWealth strategy  understanding risks & portfolio creation
Wealth strategy understanding risks & portfolio creationSudhir Upadhyay
 
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.com
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.comSmart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.com
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.comDavid Lee
 
Investment Analysis Final Project
Investment Analysis  Final ProjectInvestment Analysis  Final Project
Investment Analysis Final Projectnroopraj24
 
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...Solid Rock Wealth Management
 
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsInvesting with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsSteve Rodman
 
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsInvesting with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsJames Mabbutt
 
1st assignment (investment)
1st assignment (investment)1st assignment (investment)
1st assignment (investment)Danish Saqi
 
Investment financial instruments
Investment financial instrumentsInvestment financial instruments
Investment financial instrumentsA.W. Berry
 
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11Proactive Advisor Magazine
 
5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket
5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket
5 Rules in Investing in the StockmarketAldrin Bibon
 
Switzerland - Independent Voices
Switzerland - Independent VoicesSwitzerland - Independent Voices
Switzerland - Independent VoicesLudovic Bonnamour
 
Volatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and DownsVolatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and Downsdmauro6
 
Volatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and DownsVolatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and DownsVleporerox
 
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?Richard Crenian
 
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12Proactive Advisor Magazine
 

Similaire à Persevering through challenging markets (20)

Wealth strategy understanding risks & portfolio creation
Wealth strategy  understanding risks & portfolio creationWealth strategy  understanding risks & portfolio creation
Wealth strategy understanding risks & portfolio creation
 
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.com
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.comSmart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.com
Smart option for planning for retirement, now at bealelee.com
 
Investment Analysis Final Project
Investment Analysis  Final ProjectInvestment Analysis  Final Project
Investment Analysis Final Project
 
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
 
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsInvesting with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
 
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial SolutionsInvesting with Accurate Financial Solutions
Investing with Accurate Financial Solutions
 
1st assignment (investment)
1st assignment (investment)1st assignment (investment)
1st assignment (investment)
 
Issues with hedge fund performance
Issues with hedge fund performanceIssues with hedge fund performance
Issues with hedge fund performance
 
Investment financial instruments
Investment financial instrumentsInvestment financial instruments
Investment financial instruments
 
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 11
 
5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket
5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket
5 Rules in Investing in the Stockmarket
 
Switzerland - Independent Voices
Switzerland - Independent VoicesSwitzerland - Independent Voices
Switzerland - Independent Voices
 
Volatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and DownsVolatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and Downs
 
Volatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and DownsVolatility Ups and Downs
Volatility Ups and Downs
 
Active & Passive[1]
Active & Passive[1]Active & Passive[1]
Active & Passive[1]
 
aer_0407_trendyinvesting
aer_0407_trendyinvestingaer_0407_trendyinvesting
aer_0407_trendyinvesting
 
Mutual Fund.pdf
Mutual Fund.pdfMutual Fund.pdf
Mutual Fund.pdf
 
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?
What percentage of my investment portfolio should be in real estate?
 
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12
Daniel Namey – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 12
 
Against Index Funds
Against Index FundsAgainst Index Funds
Against Index Funds
 

Persevering through challenging markets

  • 1. Perseverance in challenging times. E D U C AT E D I N V E S T O R Is This What Buying Low Feels Like? We regularly hear the investment mantra “buy low and sell high,” which sounds like an easy strategy to follow. However, many investors fail to execute that rule because times like these show us what buying low really feels like — it’s emotionally hard. As many wonder whether we have reached the bottom of the bear market and what may happen next, now is a crucial time for investors to make decisions about how they will position their portfolios going forward. Below, we provide several historical examples that may help investors decide if now is the right time to “buy low.” Reasons for Investing in the Equity Markets Now Trying to Time the Market Bottom Many investors worry about timing the investment of their assets in the markets. During periods of extreme volatility, they wonder whether they should wait until they are sure the market has bounced back from its low before investing their money. We believe timing the tops and bottoms of markets is difficult to achieve with any precision. Let’s look at some illustrations to evaluate the effectiveness and potential drawbacks of trying to identify a market bottom. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
  • 2. *TRadITIoNaL vs. CoRE First, let’s take a look at the scenario of investing $1 million halfway into the aNd saTELLITE INvEsTINg decline of the 2000-2002 bear market, a period in which the S&P 500 declined a traditional portfolio by approximately 48% at its worst point. In this example, that $1 million would typically involves a mix of have grown to approximately $1.5 million five years later if invested in a traditional U.S. stocks, investment portfolio. Alternatively, a $1 million investment in a more broadly diversified Core grade bonds and perhaps and Satellite* portfolio would have grown to $1.8 million in 2006. So, although some international stocks. this hypothetical investor “got in too early” by investing before the equity market In Core and satellite portfolio hit bottom, they actually realized attractive gains after waiting through the design, core investments subsequent decline and recovery. provide a broad foundation comprising U.S. stocks, U.S. EXHIBIT 1: S&P 500 — InveSTIng $1 MIllIon (MM) Half-Way DoWn 3/24/2000–10/23/2006 fixed income and developed market international equities. Value of $1MM Investment at Peak: The main types of risk inherent S&P 500 Index = $1.00MM Traditional = $1.48MM in these investments are Index Levels Core/Satellite = $1.80MM those naturally associated with bond and stock 1500 market returns — interest Invest $1MM at bear rate and equity market market mid-point 1300 risk (similar to the risk in a traditional portfolio). 1100 Investors then surround their core holdings with 900 satellite investments such as emerging market debt, real 700 6/24/01 6/24/00 6/24/04 6/24/06 6/24/03 6/24/02 6/24/05 estate securities and high yield bonds, etc. although these investments introduce Source: gSaM 3/24/00-10/23/06. Please see appendix for asset allocation breakdowns for Traditional and Core/ new types of portfolio risk, Satellite Portfolios. they can also offer strong Returns include cash returns from peak to mid point. The hypothetical historical returns were created with the diversification benefits and benefit of hindsight using the percentage allocations shown in the appendix. Simulated performance results do not reflect actual trading and have inherent limitations. Please see additional disclosures. any changes will have opportunities for skilled an impact on the hypothetical historical performance results, which could be material. Hypothetical performance portfolio managers to capture results have many inherent limitations and no representation is being made that any investor will, or is likely to excess returns. Whatever achieve, performance similar to that shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved. Portfolios are comprised of underlying indices. the combination of satellites See appendix for Benchmarks and Blend allocation. added to complement the core of a portfolio, the goal is to Now, let’s contrast these figures to a hypothetical investor who said “I’m going to ensure that investors benefit wait until the markets have clearly bounced back before investing my money” and from the risk they assume. deployed their $1 million halfway up during the recovery. 2 This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
  • 3. EXHIBIT 2: S&P 500 — InveSTIng $1 MIllIon (MM) Half-Way UP 3/24/2000–10/23/2006 Value of $1MM Investment at Peak: S&P 500 Index = $1.00MM Traditional = $1.43MM Index Levels Core/Satellite = $1.52MM 1500 Invest $1MM at bear market mid-point 1300 1100 900 700 6/24/01 6/24/03 6/24/04 6/24/06 6/24/00 6/24/02 6/24/05 Source: gSaM. Please see appendix for asset allocation breakdowns for Traditional and Core/Satellite Portfolios. Returns include cash returns from peak to mid point of recovery. The hypothetical historical returns were created with the benefit of hindsight using the percentage allocations shown in the appendix. Simulated performance results do not reflect actual trading and have inherent limitations. Please see additional disclosures. any changes will have an impact on the hypothetical historical performance results, which could be material. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations and no representation is being made that any investor will, or is likely to achieve, performance similar to that shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved. Portfolios are comprised of underlying indices. See appendix for Benchmarks and Blend allocation. In this example, that $1 million would have grown to approximately $1.4 million by October 2006 if invested in a traditional portfolio as compared to approximately $1.5 million if invested in a more broadly diversified Core and Satellite portfolio. Compared to the previous hypothetical investor who invested while the market was still headed downward, this investor had accumulated less wealth regardless of their chosen portfolio structure. The bottom line? In this example, trying to guess the “right” time to get into the market, and/or waiting until the worst was over and the market began to rebound, did not prove to be an effective strategy. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. 3
  • 4. avoid the Possibility of Missing the Rebound Although bear markets can be painful for investors, from a historical perspective, they are less prevalent than market gains using the S&P 500 Index as a proxy. Consider that from 1926 through 2008, investors have been rewarded over time with more positive years than negative years. In addition, the positive return years, on average, have been greater than the negative return years. EXHIBIT 3: S&P CalenDaR yeaRS 1926 –2008 negaTIve yeaRS PoSITIve yeaRS average Return –14% +22% number of years 24 (29%) 59 (71%) Source: gSaM, lipper So let’s visit some of the specific “buy low” examples from the past. The picture below highlights some of the worst periods of U.S. equity performance in history, similar to what investors experienced in 2008. For those investors who were able to overcome their emotions and “buy low,” they were rewarded with large port- folio gains in the subsequent year. For investors who could not maintain a long term investment focus and reduced their equity exposure, they locked in losses by “buying high and selling low,” the exact opposite of what they say they want to do. EXHIBIT 4: S&P 500 CalenDaR yeaR anD ToTal annUalIZeD ReTURnS S&P 500 CALENDAR YEAR AND TOTAL ANNUALIZED RETURNS DURING DURIng ReSPeCTIve BeaR MaRKeT PeRIoDS BEAR MARKET PERIODS 1930: –24.9% 1931: –43.3% 1932: –8.2% 1930–1932: –61.0% 1933: 54.0% 1937: –35.0% 1938: 31.1% 1973–1974: –37.2% 1973: –14.7% 1974: –26.5% 1973–1974: –37.2% 1975: 37.2% 2000: –9.1% 2001: –11.9% 2002: –22.1% 2000–2002: –37.6% 2003: 28.7% 2008: –38.5% ??? Source: gSaM, lipper In summary, we believe that although “buying low and selling high” may be hard to execute from an emotional perspective, it is important to work with one’s financial advisor to follow that age-old advice when appropriate. And, if you do decide this is a good opportunity to “buy low,” we believe a broadly diversified Core and Satellite investment approach offers a prudent strategy to help investors achieve their long-term investment goals. For more information on how to diversify your portfolio with a Core and satellite approach, please contact your Financial advisor. 4 This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
  • 5. Risk Considerations equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Small and mid-sized company stocks involve greater risks than those customarily associated with larger companies. Bonds are subject to interest rate, price and credit risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. emerging markets securities may be less liquid and more volatile and are subject to a number of additional risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations and political instability. foreign securities may be more volatile than investments in U.S. securities and will be subject to a number of additional risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations and political developments. High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities. an investment in real estate securities is subject to greater price volatility and the special risks associated with direct ownership of real estate. appendix exHIBITS 1, 2 TRadITIoNaL CoRE/saTELLITE assET CLassEs BENCHMaRk PoRTFoLIo PoRTFoLIo U.S. large Cap S&P 500 Index 55.0% 16.7% U.S. Mid Cap Russell Mid Cap — 6.6% U.S. Small Cap value Ibbotson associates — 1.8% compiled U.S. Small Cap growth Ibbotson associates — 1.8% compiled International equity MSCI eafe 15.0% 22.1% U.S. fixed Income Barclays aggregate 30.0% 21.0% Bond Commodities S&P/gSCI — 6.3% U.S. ReITs fTSe naReIT — 1.5% U.S. High yield Bond Ibbotson associates — 1.6% compiled emerging Markets equity MSCI eMf — 6.8% emerging Markets Debt JPM eMBI — 7.4% International Small Cap S&P/Citi eMI World ex — 3.9% US TR International ReITs fTSe glbl ReITs ex US — 2.5% 100% 100% This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. 5
  • 6. Index definitions The s&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Index is unmanaged and the figures for the Index do not include any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. Ibbotson associates® is a leading authority on asset allocation with expertise in capital market expectations and portfolio implementation. approaching portfolio construction from the top-down through a research-based investment process, its experienced consultants and portfolio managers serve mutual fund firms, banks, broker-dealers, and insurance companies worldwide. Ibbotson associates’ methodologies and services address all investment phases, from accumulation to retirement and the transition between the two. The unmanaged MsCI EaFE Index (unhedged) is a market capitalization-weighted composite of securities in 21 developed markets. The Index is unmanaged and the figures for the Index do not include any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. The Barclays Capital U.s. aggregate Index represents an unmanaged diversified portfolio of fixed- income securities, including U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities. The Index figures do not reflect any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. U.s. Three-Month Treasury Bills mature in three months. like zero-coupon bonds, they do not pay interest prior to maturity; instead they are sold at a discount of the par value to create a positive yield to maturity. Many regard Treasury bills as the least risky investment available to U.S. investors. The FTsE NaREIT U.s. Real Estate Index series is designed to present investors with a comprehensive family of ReIT performance indexes that span the commercial real estate space across the U.S. economy, offering exposure to all investment and property sectors. The s&P goldman sachs Commodity Index (gsCI) is a composite index of commodity sector returns which represents a broadly diversified, unleveraged, long-only position in commodity futures. Standard & Poor’s® and S&P ® are registered trademarks of The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and gSCI™ is a trademark of The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by goldman, Sachs & Co. The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell Midcap Index is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap Index represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 companies. The MsCI EMF Index is the Morgan Stanley Capital International’s market capitalization weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in europe, latin america, and the Pacific Basin. The MSCI eMf Index excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (JPM EMBI) covers U.S.dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans and eurobonds. Brady Bonds are dollar-denominated bonds, issued mostly by latin american countries in the 1980s, named after U.S. Treasury Secretary nicholas Brady. s&P Citigroup EMI global Ex-U.s. measures the bottom 20% of institutionally investable capital of developed and emerging (after 9/30/1994) countries, selected by the index sponsor, outside the United States. The FTsE global REIT ex-U.s. Index measures the stock performance of companies engaged in the ownership, disposure and development of the Canadian, european and asian real estate markets. 6 This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
  • 7. disclosures These examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not actual results. If any assumptions used do not prove to be true, results may vary substantially. Simulated performance is hypothetical and may not take into account material economic and market factors that would impact the adviser’s decision-making. Simulated results are achieved by retroactively applying a model with the benefit of hindsight. The results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect fees, transaction costs, and other expenses, which would reduce returns. actual results will vary. Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. This material has been prepared by gSaM and is not a product of the goldman Sachs global Investment Research (gIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of the gIR Department or other departments or divisions of goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and gSaM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. no part of this material may, without gSaM’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by gSaM to buy, sell, or hold any security. views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice. IRs Circular 230 disclosure: goldman Sachs does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. any statement contained in this communication (including any attachments) concerning U.S. tax matters is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding penalties imposed on the relevant taxpayer. Clients of goldman Sachs should obtain their own independent tax advice based on their particular circumstances. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. 7
  • 8. Copyright 2009, goldman, Sachs & Co. all Rights Reserved. Date of first Use: february 20, 2009 / 18685.Mf / PeRS-eI3