Palestra Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira, por Sergio de Zen, professor Esalq/USP, coordenador de pecuária do Cepea.

1. Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira CEPEA/ESALQ/USP - Brazil Prof. Dr. SERGIO DE ZEN Ms. Thiago Bernardino de Carvalho

2. CADEIA DE VALOR 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 INSUMOS PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA LAVOURAS AGROINDÚSTRIA EXPORTADOR ATACADO Equipe de Painel / Custos de Produção Equipe de Levantamento de Preços/Mercado Estudo de caso VAREJO MERCADO EXTERNO EXTERNALIDADES: sócio-ambientais Emprego Energia Mercado limpo  i i=cadeias “ SUPERMERCADO” LABORATÓRIO DE INFORMAÇÃO PRODUTOS GESTÃO EMPRESARIAL

3. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 GETÚLIO SE SUICIDA 3 PRESIDENTES E 2 ANOS JUSCELINO E A ESTABILIDADE ECONOMICA E POLÍTICA Instabilidade política e Economica - JANIO e JANGO GOLPE E ESTABILIZAÇÀO MILAGRE CRISES DO PETRÓLEO 4 MOEDAS E 5 PLANOS ECONOMICAOS PLANO REAL

5. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Mapeamento das fazendas típicas Fonte: CEPEA / CNA Alta Floresta Paragominas Santana do Araguaia Nova Crixás e Porangatú Alvorada e São Miguel Ceres Catalão Governador Valadares e Carlos Chagas Uberaba e Uberlândia Andradina e Tupã Bonito Assis e Candido Mota Santo Antonio da Platina Paranavaí Guarapuava Santa Maria Bagé Alegrete Camapuã e São Gabriel Amambaí, Dourados e Naviraí Brasilândia e Paranaíba Cárceres Pontes e Lacerda Ji-Paraná Barra do Garça Colinas do Tocantins Redenção Lavras do Sul Umuarama Araguaína Paraíso do Tocantins Montes Claros Angatuba Jataí e Rio Verde Niqueândia e Uruaçu Chapadão do Sul Miranda Ribas do Rio Pardo Nova Andradina Barreiras Feira de Santana Itapetinga Itamaraju Rio Branco e Xapuri Sena Madureira Feijó e Tarauacá Cruzeiro do Sul Brasiléia

7. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA

8. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA

9. Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Bezerro– média 2009 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA

10. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Boi Gordo – média 2009

11. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Agribenchmark

12. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Cria

14. Sistemas de produção Source : Own illustration Pasture Silage Feedlot Cut & Carry Feed % in >30% >30% >50% grains > 30% dry matter pasture silage and and other freshly cut grass other forages energy feed & other veget . Management Outdoor Closed or semi Confined, large, mix of cut and System year round or open barns with open pens, grazing of paths part of the year slatted floors 1,000-50,000 head and paddies and/or straw one time capacity Extent of Low Medium High Low purchase feed

15. Total cost by factor and non-factor costs Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight

16. Mercado e retornos com pagamentos do governo Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight

17. Total weight sold per cow and year Source : Own calculations kg live weight sold per cow and year

18. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Terminação

19. Total cost of beef finishing 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Europe West EU East Asia Oceania Americas Africa

20. Total cost of beef finishing 2008 (by production system) Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Pasture Feedlot Silage Cut & Carry

21. Beef prices 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold

22. Daily weight gain and net gain by production system (carcass weight divided by age at slaughter) Source : Own calculations Pasture Feedlot Silage Cut & Carry g per day

23. Total cost vs. total returns Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold

24. Time series cost and prices beef finishing 2005-2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Costs Prices

25. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Ciclo Completo

26. Total cost by factor and non-factor costs 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Integrated farms Combined farms

27. Medium-term profitability Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight Integrated farms Combined farms

29. Drivers of production 1 Additional land ─ Idle land presently unused (set aside ...) ─ Additional land not in production (cerrado ...) ─ Climate change: land losses vs. land gains ─ Grassland or arable land? Emissions? 2 Productivity increases ─ Yields per hectare crops and forage – more feed ─ Calves per cow and year, daily weight gains, final weights more beef

31. Productivity increase in Brazil’s beef production Number of cattle (million head) Beef production (million tonnes) Kg carcass weight per cattle From 33 to 44 kg per head (+30 %)

37. Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: IBGE, MAPA, Conab e ABRAF. Distribuição Geográfica Brasileira Million of ha % * 106 million of ha to produce others things (ethanol, cash crops, etc), without beef production Pasture 170 20,2 Conservation’s Unity 176 20,7 Indians Lands 118 13,9 Social Lands (MST) 77 9,0 Cash Crop Lands 72 8,4 Cultivated Forests 5 0,6 Lands for another use 160 18,8 Unexplored Lands Available for Agriculture (not consider Amazonia Forest) 106 12,5 Total 851 100

39. Exchange rates vs. US$ (Index 2000 = 100) Source : Own calculations

40. Income and happiness 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 100 Percen t of happy people Annual income per head

41. Income and beef consumption 2004 – 164 countries Source: FAO, Nancy Morgan (2004) Beef consumption per capita and year Income per capita per year – logarithmic scale (US$)

42. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 http://cepea.esalq.usp.br [email_address] 55 019 3429 8802