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GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Influence of Accounting Rules for Securitisation


by Andrew Read                                         1
SECURITISATION
 What is securitisation?
 Accounting for securitisation

 Contribution to global financial crisis

 Issues for regulators




                                            2
WHAT IS IT?
   A process of changing non-tradable debt into
    tradable debt by
     combining the non-tradable debt into a portfolio and
     issuing tradable debt financial instruments secured by
      the portfolio
        Frequently used for consumer and small business debt

            Home mortgages
            Credit cards
            Personal loans
            Student loans
            Small business loans



                                                                3
REASON 1 – AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS
   Increase the amount of funds available for these
    types of loans be getting funds from debt markets
     Pension and superannuation funds
     Insurance companies
     Corporations with excess cash




                                                        4
REASON 2 – LIQUIDITY
   Consumer loans like mortgages are for long terms
     25 years in Australia
     40 years in USA

 Investors reluctant to commit their cash for that long
 Securitisation financial instruments are tradable
  which makes them liquid




                                                           5
REASON 3 – DIVERSIFICATION
   Combining different debt instruments in one
    portfolio reduces unsystematic risk
     Apartments, small houses, large houses
     Different cities (and countries)
     Non-mortgage debt




                                                  6
DIVERSIFICATION THEORY – MARKOWITZ
MODEL



                    n          n

    p
                                  X j X k  j  k r jk
                   j 1       k 1


X = proportion of security
σ = standard deviation
r = correlation coefficient
j, k = security
                                                            7
p = portfolio
DIVERSIFICATION THEORY CONTINUED
   As long as rjp < 1
       Correlation between existing portfolio and new security
 And
 σj ≤ σp
       Risk of new security less than or equal to risk of existing
        portfolio
   Adding additional securities will reduce the risk of
    the portfolio



                                                                      8
VANILLA PROCESS                 Promoter
       Originator




 Borrower           Securitisation entity   Financial markets


                                                            9
VANILLA PROCESS – ARRANGING THE
MORTGAGE

   Mortgage originator negotiates loan with consumer
     Aussie Home Loans is an example of an originator
     Gets a fee for doing so

   Promoter creates securitisation entity
       Gets a fee for doing so
   Securitisation entity provides money to consumer
    and receives principal and interest payments over
    the life of the loan
       Payments may be passed via the originator


                                                         10
VANILLA PROCESS – POOLING
   Securitisation entity repeats the process of
    providing mortgages
       Common to issue 200 – 300 mortgages to create the
        portfolio




                                                            11
VANILLA PROCESS - SECURITISATION
   Securitisation entity issues debt instruments
    (bonds) to financial markets
     CMO bonds – collateralised mortgage obligation bond
     CDO bonds – collateralised debt obligation bond
     ABS – asset backed security




                                                            12
ADD-ON – GUARANTEE
   To improve the credit rating of securitisation
    debt, the entity can purchase a guarantee
     Typically provided by a financial institution
     A major part of Fannie Mae’s business was to sell these
      guarantees
     The originator, the promoter or another entity may be
      the guarantor




                                                                13
COST OF DEBT BY RATING

S&P Rating   Basis Points over LIBOR
AAA                              30
AA+                              45    Ashcraft, A. B., & Schuermann, T. (2008).
                                       Understanding the Securitization of Subprime
                                       Mortgage Credit. SSRN eLibrary. Retrieved
AA                               47    April 27, 2009, from
                                       http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstra
AA-                              48    ct_id=1071189.


A+                               53
A                                56
A-                               69
BBB+                            135
BBB                             150
BBB-                            308                                          14
BB+                             375
ADD-ON – OVER-COLLATERALISATION
 To improve the credit rating, the promoter may put
  more assets into the portfolio than needed
 The promoter will receive any surplus when the
  portfolio is liquidated
       The originator or another entity may be the promoter




                                                               15
ADD-ON – TRANCHING
   A proportion of the bonds issued (called a tranche)
    may be given a higher priority for repayment
       High ranking tranches get a better credit rating
        (hence, lower interest rate) than low ranking tranches




                                                                 16
ACCOUNTING FOR SECURITISATION
   Typically, securitisation entities are not consolidated
    by:
     Originator
     Promoter
     Guarantor

   Use structures to get around consolidation standard
       Special purpose entities




                                                              17
GAME PLAYING USING SECURITISATION
   Non-consolidation of securitisation entities
    encourages game playing
       Lowering leverage ratios




                                                   18
REGULATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
   Financial institutions must maintain sufficient capital
    under national and international regulations
       Called capital adequacy
   Debt to asset ratio < 92%
       This is a simplification
   Securitisation entities are not regulated




                                                              19
THE GAME
 Sell assets (mortgage assets typically) to a
  securitisation entity
 Use proceeds to repay debt




                                                 20
EXAMPLE – PART 1
   Bank Ltd has $1,000m in assets (receivables on
    mortgages and other loans) and $920m in liabilities
       Debt to asset ratio 92.0%
 Sells $100m in assets to securitisation entity for
  $99m and uses proceeds to repay debt
 Assets now $900m and liabilities $821m
       Debt to asset ratio now 91.2%




                                                          21
EXAMPLE – PART 2
 Bank Ltd sells guarantee to securitisation entity for
  $1m and uses proceeds to repay debt
 Assets now $900m, liabilities $820m
       Debt to asset ratio now 91.1%
   Better debt to asset ratio means:
       Lower marginal cost of debt – maybe
       Less chance of breaching government regulations
           Capital adequacy




                                                          22
BUT
   Has the risk of Bank Ltd changed as a result of
    these transactions?




                                                      23
CONTRIBUTION TO GFC
   First, the impacts:
     On guarantors
     On holders of bonds

   Then, the contribution




                             24
GUARANTORS
 The increase in default level on mortgages has
  required the guarantors to pay on the guarantee
 Some of the largest guarantors were:
     AIG
     Lehmann Bros
     Fannie Mae




                                                    25
HOLDERS OF BONDS
 If the bonds were not guaranteed or if the guarantor
  is insolvent and
 If there have been a large number of defaults on
  the mortgages in the portfolio
 Then the holders of bonds will not be getting their
  principal and/or interest payments




                                                         26
TOXIC ASSETS
 Bonds which are not paying interest and/or principal
  are one type of “toxic asset”
 The secondary market for these bonds has
  disappeared so holders cannot sell or liquidate
  them




                                                         27
IMPACT ON REPORTS
 Most bonds are required by IAS 39 (and equivalent
  SFAS and AASB) to be recorded at fair value
 With changes in fair value recorded in the income
  statement




                                                      28
IMPACT ON CAPITAL ADEQUACY
 If the holder of the bonds is a financial institution
 The reductions in fair value of the bond assets can
  send its debt to asset ratio above 92%
       In breach of capital adequacy requirements




                                                          29
IMPACT ON DEBT COVENANTS
 Debt contracts often contain restrictions
  (covenants) based on leverage ratios
 If the permitted leverage is exceeded then
     Penalty interest rates apply and/or
     The loan must be repaid immediately

   Write-downs of bonds can place a company in
    breach of its debt covenants




                                                  30
CONTRIBUTION – SECURITISATION
ACCOUNTING

 Ability to use securitisation as an OBF vehicle may
  have led to excessive securitisation
 Inadequate disclosure of exposure to risks from
  securitisation may have led to incorrect risk
  assessments by shareholders and creditors




                                                        31
CONTRIBUTION – WRITE-DOWN OF CMOS
   Write-down of bonds may have put companies in
    breach of debt covenants and capital adequacy
    rules
       Forced companies to repay debts or pay higher interest
        when they have insufficient cash
           Insolvency or government bail-out




                                                                 32
CONTRIBUTION – INDIRECT
   One of the immediate impacts of the GFC was to
    make companies re-evaluate credit risk
       also called counter-party risk
   Fear and distrust of accounting reports may have
    caused adverse selection problem
     led to collapse of inter-bank market which caused
     massive contraction in money supply which caused
     worst recession in 80 years




                                                          33
ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – SECURITISATION
 How to report securitisation?
 Options for regulators:
       Require consolidation – but by whom?
         Originator
         Promoter

         Guarantor

       Require disclosure in notes
           Net or gross?
       No change



                                               34
ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – REPORTING
WRITE-DOWNS

   When bonds’ values falls
     Adjust to fair value and record loss in income statement
     Adjust to fair value and record loss in reserves
     Do nothing until realised




                                                                 35
ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – MARKET
COLLAPSE

   The market for bonds has collapsed
     No-one is buying
     Cannot observe fair value

   How should fair value be reported?
     At $0
     Based on DCF estimating default and risk-adjusted
      discount rate (mark to model)
     At last observed market price




                                                          36

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Global Financial Crisis And Securitisation

  • 1. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS The Influence of Accounting Rules for Securitisation by Andrew Read 1
  • 2. SECURITISATION  What is securitisation?  Accounting for securitisation  Contribution to global financial crisis  Issues for regulators 2
  • 3. WHAT IS IT?  A process of changing non-tradable debt into tradable debt by  combining the non-tradable debt into a portfolio and  issuing tradable debt financial instruments secured by the portfolio  Frequently used for consumer and small business debt  Home mortgages  Credit cards  Personal loans  Student loans  Small business loans 3
  • 4. REASON 1 – AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS  Increase the amount of funds available for these types of loans be getting funds from debt markets  Pension and superannuation funds  Insurance companies  Corporations with excess cash 4
  • 5. REASON 2 – LIQUIDITY  Consumer loans like mortgages are for long terms  25 years in Australia  40 years in USA  Investors reluctant to commit their cash for that long  Securitisation financial instruments are tradable which makes them liquid 5
  • 6. REASON 3 – DIVERSIFICATION  Combining different debt instruments in one portfolio reduces unsystematic risk  Apartments, small houses, large houses  Different cities (and countries)  Non-mortgage debt 6
  • 7. DIVERSIFICATION THEORY – MARKOWITZ MODEL n n  p    X j X k  j  k r jk j 1 k 1 X = proportion of security σ = standard deviation r = correlation coefficient j, k = security 7 p = portfolio
  • 8. DIVERSIFICATION THEORY CONTINUED  As long as rjp < 1  Correlation between existing portfolio and new security  And  σj ≤ σp  Risk of new security less than or equal to risk of existing portfolio  Adding additional securities will reduce the risk of the portfolio 8
  • 9. VANILLA PROCESS Promoter Originator Borrower Securitisation entity Financial markets 9
  • 10. VANILLA PROCESS – ARRANGING THE MORTGAGE  Mortgage originator negotiates loan with consumer  Aussie Home Loans is an example of an originator  Gets a fee for doing so  Promoter creates securitisation entity  Gets a fee for doing so  Securitisation entity provides money to consumer and receives principal and interest payments over the life of the loan  Payments may be passed via the originator 10
  • 11. VANILLA PROCESS – POOLING  Securitisation entity repeats the process of providing mortgages  Common to issue 200 – 300 mortgages to create the portfolio 11
  • 12. VANILLA PROCESS - SECURITISATION  Securitisation entity issues debt instruments (bonds) to financial markets  CMO bonds – collateralised mortgage obligation bond  CDO bonds – collateralised debt obligation bond  ABS – asset backed security 12
  • 13. ADD-ON – GUARANTEE  To improve the credit rating of securitisation debt, the entity can purchase a guarantee  Typically provided by a financial institution  A major part of Fannie Mae’s business was to sell these guarantees  The originator, the promoter or another entity may be the guarantor 13
  • 14. COST OF DEBT BY RATING S&P Rating Basis Points over LIBOR AAA 30 AA+ 45 Ashcraft, A. B., & Schuermann, T. (2008). Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit. SSRN eLibrary. Retrieved AA 47 April 27, 2009, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstra AA- 48 ct_id=1071189. A+ 53 A 56 A- 69 BBB+ 135 BBB 150 BBB- 308 14 BB+ 375
  • 15. ADD-ON – OVER-COLLATERALISATION  To improve the credit rating, the promoter may put more assets into the portfolio than needed  The promoter will receive any surplus when the portfolio is liquidated  The originator or another entity may be the promoter 15
  • 16. ADD-ON – TRANCHING  A proportion of the bonds issued (called a tranche) may be given a higher priority for repayment  High ranking tranches get a better credit rating (hence, lower interest rate) than low ranking tranches 16
  • 17. ACCOUNTING FOR SECURITISATION  Typically, securitisation entities are not consolidated by:  Originator  Promoter  Guarantor  Use structures to get around consolidation standard  Special purpose entities 17
  • 18. GAME PLAYING USING SECURITISATION  Non-consolidation of securitisation entities encourages game playing  Lowering leverage ratios 18
  • 19. REGULATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS  Financial institutions must maintain sufficient capital under national and international regulations  Called capital adequacy  Debt to asset ratio < 92%  This is a simplification  Securitisation entities are not regulated 19
  • 20. THE GAME  Sell assets (mortgage assets typically) to a securitisation entity  Use proceeds to repay debt 20
  • 21. EXAMPLE – PART 1  Bank Ltd has $1,000m in assets (receivables on mortgages and other loans) and $920m in liabilities  Debt to asset ratio 92.0%  Sells $100m in assets to securitisation entity for $99m and uses proceeds to repay debt  Assets now $900m and liabilities $821m  Debt to asset ratio now 91.2% 21
  • 22. EXAMPLE – PART 2  Bank Ltd sells guarantee to securitisation entity for $1m and uses proceeds to repay debt  Assets now $900m, liabilities $820m  Debt to asset ratio now 91.1%  Better debt to asset ratio means:  Lower marginal cost of debt – maybe  Less chance of breaching government regulations  Capital adequacy 22
  • 23. BUT  Has the risk of Bank Ltd changed as a result of these transactions? 23
  • 24. CONTRIBUTION TO GFC  First, the impacts:  On guarantors  On holders of bonds  Then, the contribution 24
  • 25. GUARANTORS  The increase in default level on mortgages has required the guarantors to pay on the guarantee  Some of the largest guarantors were:  AIG  Lehmann Bros  Fannie Mae 25
  • 26. HOLDERS OF BONDS  If the bonds were not guaranteed or if the guarantor is insolvent and  If there have been a large number of defaults on the mortgages in the portfolio  Then the holders of bonds will not be getting their principal and/or interest payments 26
  • 27. TOXIC ASSETS  Bonds which are not paying interest and/or principal are one type of “toxic asset”  The secondary market for these bonds has disappeared so holders cannot sell or liquidate them 27
  • 28. IMPACT ON REPORTS  Most bonds are required by IAS 39 (and equivalent SFAS and AASB) to be recorded at fair value  With changes in fair value recorded in the income statement 28
  • 29. IMPACT ON CAPITAL ADEQUACY  If the holder of the bonds is a financial institution  The reductions in fair value of the bond assets can send its debt to asset ratio above 92%  In breach of capital adequacy requirements 29
  • 30. IMPACT ON DEBT COVENANTS  Debt contracts often contain restrictions (covenants) based on leverage ratios  If the permitted leverage is exceeded then  Penalty interest rates apply and/or  The loan must be repaid immediately  Write-downs of bonds can place a company in breach of its debt covenants 30
  • 31. CONTRIBUTION – SECURITISATION ACCOUNTING  Ability to use securitisation as an OBF vehicle may have led to excessive securitisation  Inadequate disclosure of exposure to risks from securitisation may have led to incorrect risk assessments by shareholders and creditors 31
  • 32. CONTRIBUTION – WRITE-DOWN OF CMOS  Write-down of bonds may have put companies in breach of debt covenants and capital adequacy rules  Forced companies to repay debts or pay higher interest when they have insufficient cash  Insolvency or government bail-out 32
  • 33. CONTRIBUTION – INDIRECT  One of the immediate impacts of the GFC was to make companies re-evaluate credit risk  also called counter-party risk  Fear and distrust of accounting reports may have caused adverse selection problem  led to collapse of inter-bank market which caused  massive contraction in money supply which caused  worst recession in 80 years 33
  • 34. ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – SECURITISATION  How to report securitisation?  Options for regulators:  Require consolidation – but by whom?  Originator  Promoter  Guarantor  Require disclosure in notes  Net or gross?  No change 34
  • 35. ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – REPORTING WRITE-DOWNS  When bonds’ values falls  Adjust to fair value and record loss in income statement  Adjust to fair value and record loss in reserves  Do nothing until realised 35
  • 36. ISSUES FOR REGULATORS – MARKET COLLAPSE  The market for bonds has collapsed  No-one is buying  Cannot observe fair value  How should fair value be reported?  At $0  Based on DCF estimating default and risk-adjusted discount rate (mark to model)  At last observed market price 36