Henry Stewart Survival Analysis

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Applications of Survival Analysis to Customer Management Henry Stewart Briefing for Users of Marketing Analytics 4 December 2008, Mayfair Conference Centre, Marble Arch, London William De Genst

Survival Analysis Understanding Customer Attrition

Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes

Survival Analysis Joining Time Time Survey end Actual Time Time from common origin Distributions of lifetimes

Survival Analysis Trial contract Non-trial contract Log-rank test (Mantel-Haenszel) Chisq= 30.2 on 1 degrees of freedom, p= 3.98e-08 Estimation

Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model

Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Var  SE(  ) z p v 1 0.09 0.03 3.19 0.01 v 2 -0.35 0.19 -1.83 0.06 v n -0.34 0.38 -0.90 0.37

Survival Analysis Schoenfeld residuals ~ time Martingale residuals ~ covariate Cox proportional hazards model

Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Smoothed term

Lifetime Value Analysis Customer Lifetime Value

Lifetime Value Analysis time Survival probability Customer spend time ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Customer Lifetime Value

Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

Case Study Free trials Year 1 renewal Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

Case Study DD cancelation Free trials going on to other products Original Payment Method

Case Study Payment method as strata ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign coef exp(coef) se(coef) z p productswitches -0.21 0.81 0.08 -2.58 0.01 methodswitches -2.76 0.06 0.15 -17.99 0.00 downgrades -1.63 0.20 0.58 -2.80 0.01 income 0.03 1.03 0.01 1.76 0.08 HHdensity 0.06 1.06 0.03 1.95 0.05

Case Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Paid Free trial Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

Case Study break-even in week 65 Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

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Henry Stewart Survival Analysis

1. Applications of Survival Analysis to Customer Management Henry Stewart Briefing for Users of Marketing Analytics 4 December 2008, Mayfair Conference Centre, Marble Arch, London William De Genst

2. Survival Analysis

3. Survival Analysis Understanding Customer Attrition

4. Survival Analysis Techniques

5. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes

6. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes

7. Survival Analysis Joining Time Time Survey end Actual Time Time from common origin Distributions of lifetimes

8. Survival Analysis Estimation

9. Survival Analysis Estimation

10. Survival Analysis Trial contract Non-trial contract Log-rank test (Mantel-Haenszel) Chisq= 30.2 on 1 degrees of freedom, p= 3.98e-08 Estimation

11. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model

12. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Var  SE(  ) z p v 1 0.09 0.03 3.19 0.01 v 2 -0.35 0.19 -1.83 0.06 v n -0.34 0.38 -0.90 0.37

13. Survival Analysis Schoenfeld residuals ~ time Martingale residuals ~ covariate Cox proportional hazards model

14. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Smoothed term

15. Lifetime Value Analysis Customer Lifetime Value

16.

17. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

18. Case Study Free trials Year 1 renewal Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

19. Case Study DD cancelation Free trials going on to other products Original Payment Method

20.

21.

22. Case Study break-even in week 65 Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

23. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign

24. Conclusions

Henry Stewart Survival Analysis

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