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Life Cycle Cost
         Analysis
              Ankur Bansal 09010408



Footer Text                           11/2/2012   1
Life Cycle Cost (LCC)
   Life-cycle cost analysis is a
process for evaluating the total
 economic worth of a usable
 project segment by analysing
  initial costs and discounted
           future costs.

Footer Text                 11/2/2012   2
Why Use LCC?
                     Project     Maintenance
                   Engineering   Engineering



    Shareholders                                Production




                                  Reliability
                   Accounting
                                 Engineering


Footer Text                                             11/2/2012   3
Key Parameters used in calculating Life
              Cycle Cost
• Time Value of Money
1. Rate of Return
2. Inflation
• Opportunity Cost
• Discount Rate
• Analysis

Footer Text                       11/2/2012   4
Steps to determine life cycle costs:

• Establish alternative design
  strategies.
• Determine activity timing.
• Estimate agency costs.
• Estimate user costs.
• Determine life-cycle cost.

Footer Text                      11/2/2012   5
Costs Involved




Footer Text                    11/2/2012   6
Costs Involved
 Indirect Costs
• Motorist delay time
• Vehicle operating costs
• Accident Costs




Footer Text                    11/2/2012   7
Calculation of Life Cycle
           Cost
Deterministic
• An Exact Cost is Determined



Probabilistic
• A range of Values is determined with a specific
  probability distribution.

Footer Text                                         11/2/2012   8
Steps Involved
• Step 1-Identify what has to be analysed and the time
  period for the project life study along with the
  appropriate financial criteria.
• Step 2-Focus on the technical features by way of the
  economic consequences to look for alternative
  solutions.
• Step 3-Develop the cost details by year
• Step 4-Select the appropriate cost model, simple
  discrete, simple with some variability for repairs and
  replacements, complex with random variations, etc.
  required by project complexity.
• Step 5-Cost details are acquired.
• Step 6-Yearly cost profiles are found.

 Footer Text                                         11/2/2012   9
Deterministic Approach
• Fixed discrete values are assigned to
  various parameters and any type of
  uncertainties are ignored
• LCC calculated is fixed value




Footer Text                         11/2/2012   10
Probabilistic Approach
• Cost parameters are assigned with
  some appropriate probability
  distribution.
• Random numbers are generated
• These random numbers are used
  to calculate the LCC


Footer Text                    11/2/2012   11
Sensitivity Analysis
• A sensitivity analysis is performed to
  understand what variables make the
  largest difference in the final result.
• We can identify the model variables
  that have a significant influence on
  model results and/or determine break-
  even points that alter the ranking of
  considered options.

Footer Text                          11/2/2012   12
Risk Analysis
• Risk analysis helps to estimate the levels of risk and
  uncertainty within final economic decision
  measures such as BCR and NPV, from uncertainty in
  the key input variables feeding into the project
  evaluation process. By estimating the 'riskiness'
  aspect of these summary measures, a more realistic
  comparison of project returns can be obtained




 Footer Text                                      11/2/2012   13

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Life cycle cost analysis

  • 1. Life Cycle Cost Analysis Ankur Bansal 09010408 Footer Text 11/2/2012 1
  • 2. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Life-cycle cost analysis is a process for evaluating the total economic worth of a usable project segment by analysing initial costs and discounted future costs. Footer Text 11/2/2012 2
  • 3. Why Use LCC? Project Maintenance Engineering Engineering Shareholders Production Reliability Accounting Engineering Footer Text 11/2/2012 3
  • 4. Key Parameters used in calculating Life Cycle Cost • Time Value of Money 1. Rate of Return 2. Inflation • Opportunity Cost • Discount Rate • Analysis Footer Text 11/2/2012 4
  • 5. Steps to determine life cycle costs: • Establish alternative design strategies. • Determine activity timing. • Estimate agency costs. • Estimate user costs. • Determine life-cycle cost. Footer Text 11/2/2012 5
  • 7. Costs Involved  Indirect Costs • Motorist delay time • Vehicle operating costs • Accident Costs Footer Text 11/2/2012 7
  • 8. Calculation of Life Cycle Cost Deterministic • An Exact Cost is Determined Probabilistic • A range of Values is determined with a specific probability distribution. Footer Text 11/2/2012 8
  • 9. Steps Involved • Step 1-Identify what has to be analysed and the time period for the project life study along with the appropriate financial criteria. • Step 2-Focus on the technical features by way of the economic consequences to look for alternative solutions. • Step 3-Develop the cost details by year • Step 4-Select the appropriate cost model, simple discrete, simple with some variability for repairs and replacements, complex with random variations, etc. required by project complexity. • Step 5-Cost details are acquired. • Step 6-Yearly cost profiles are found. Footer Text 11/2/2012 9
  • 10. Deterministic Approach • Fixed discrete values are assigned to various parameters and any type of uncertainties are ignored • LCC calculated is fixed value Footer Text 11/2/2012 10
  • 11. Probabilistic Approach • Cost parameters are assigned with some appropriate probability distribution. • Random numbers are generated • These random numbers are used to calculate the LCC Footer Text 11/2/2012 11
  • 12. Sensitivity Analysis • A sensitivity analysis is performed to understand what variables make the largest difference in the final result. • We can identify the model variables that have a significant influence on model results and/or determine break- even points that alter the ranking of considered options. Footer Text 11/2/2012 12
  • 13. Risk Analysis • Risk analysis helps to estimate the levels of risk and uncertainty within final economic decision measures such as BCR and NPV, from uncertainty in the key input variables feeding into the project evaluation process. By estimating the 'riskiness' aspect of these summary measures, a more realistic comparison of project returns can be obtained Footer Text 11/2/2012 13

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. 1. Project Engineering wants to minimize capital costs as the only criteria,2. Maintenance Engineering wants to minimize repair hours as the only criteria,3. Production wants to maximize uptime hours as the only criteria,4. Reliability Engineering wants to avoid failures as the only criteria,5. Accounting wants to maximize project net present value as the only criteria, and6. Shareholders want to increase stockholder wealth as the only criteria. LCC can be used as a decision tool for harmonizing the never ending conflicts by focusing on facts, money and time.
  2. A discount rate must represent the cost of capital and a reasonable opportunity cost.
  3. Future Investments: 1. One time investments occurring after the start of the analysis period.2. Non-Annual maintenance or repair.3. Major alterations to initial investment work
  4. Indirect costs can be quantified by using appropriate standards, as in India IRC: SP:30-2009 provides guidelines to estimate the indirect costs.
  5. In deterministic methods, all the input values are given a discrete fixed value and any type ofuncertainty is ignored in determining the Life Cycle Cost.
  6. the probabilistic distribution assigned to each variable provides aclearer and more descriptive picture of associated outcomes.Here, Monte Carlo simulation is used