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Good Governance for a Better Tomorrow

         Philippine Economic Briefing
  Policy Agenda, Fiscal and Macroeconomic Updates


       Philippine International Convention Center
                  Pasay City, Philippines
                      6 March 2012
Agenda


    I.      Executive Summary                                                       3


    II.     Government’s Focus on Governance and Near Term Goals                    4


    III.    Economic and Fiscal Updates

             Healthy, Sustained and Inclusive Economic Growth                       5


             Rapidly Improving Public Finances                                      7


             Prudent Debt Management                                                10


             Strong External Payments Position                                      14


             Credible Monetary Policy with Strong Track Record                      18


             Resilient Banking System                                               19


             Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results                       20


     IV.    Economic and Fiscal Outlook                                             23


     V.     Key Investment Areas                                                    33


     VI.    Profiles of Government Officials and Speakers from the Private Sector   47


     VII.   Investor Relations Office Brochure                                      66




                                                                                         22
The Philippines: Pushing Forward on All Fronts
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and governance reforms enabled the economy to sustain
its positive momentum in 2011




           •Resilient and stable economic growth driven by strong domestic consumer base and growing
            investment

           •Prudent fiscal management focused on fiscal consolidation and medium-term debt sustainability

           •Strong external payments position supported by large foreign exchange reserves, robust overseas
            foreign remittances and a net external creditor balance

           •Credible and effective monetary policy that has ensured price stability through its proactive stance
            and independent approach to policy implementation

           •Stable banking system, which is resilient to external shocks due to low NPLs, strong prudential ratios
            and stable domestic funding sources

           •Reform-minded Administration with a growing track record of good governance, prudent fiscal and
            budgetary management and sustained popular support from the Filipino people

            Growing third-party recognition with several credit rating upgrades over the past two years and
            ongoing market appetite




                                                                                                                     33
An Administration Focused on Good Governance and Near-Term Goals
The Aquino administration has made significant achievements and has set clear goals for the future



   “From the beginning of my campaign, I have maintained that the job of the President is composed of three things…first is the efficient allocation
   of resources – that as a country with a sizable debt and limited resources, we must be able to utilize these resources to the maximum benefit of
   our people. Second is to make certain that, as we walk the path to progress, no one is left behind… it is the government’s job to promote
   inclusive growth and the third is the bedrock on which the first two are built on — the idea that by curbing corruption we can reduce poverty.”

                                                                                     - - President Benigno S. Aquino III, Feb. 21, 2012

         The President’s Social Contract                                                          Priority Areas
                                                               • Rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth
  • A re-awakened sense of right and                                 Stable macroeconomic environment, low inflation and sustainable
     wrong, through the living examples of our                       fiscal position; GDP growth of 7% to 8% for at least 6 yrs
     highest leaders;                                                Public private partnership; integrated and multimodal national transport
  • An organized and widely-shared rapid                             and logistics system
     expansion of our economy through a                              Adequate and responsive formal education structure and program
                                                                     National Health Insurance Coverage Program
     government dedicated to honing and
     mobilizing our people’s skills and energies                     Communication, education and advocacy program for population
     as well as the responsible harnessing of our                    development
     natural resources;                                        • Anti-corruption/transparent, accountable and participatory governance
                                                                       Government Integrated Financial Management Information System
  • A collective belief that doing the right thing
                                                                       and procurement reforms;
     does not only make sense morally, but also
     translates into economic value as well; and                       Enhance role of Local Government Units in the anti-corruption drive
                                                               • Poverty reduction and empowerment of the poor and vulnerable
  • Public institutions rebuilt on the strong                        Focus on comparative advantage in more labor-intensive activities;
     solidarity of our society and its communities
                                                                     Credit access for poor;
                                                                     Regional savings generation
                                                                     Conditional cash transfers
                                                               • Just and lasting peace and the Rule of Law; and
                                                               • Integrity of the environment and climate change mitigation and adaptation
                                                                      Measure to mitigate potential negative impact of environmental factors
                                                                                                                                                       44
Economy: Healthy and Stable
A healthy economy supported b y sustained improvements across credit metrics




                                                                                                                         2005 vs. 2010
                                                                                                                                                         2011
                                                                                                    2005                         2010       Difference

      Real GDP Grow th1 (%)                                                                          4.8                              7.6    +58%          3.7


      GDP Per Capita2 (USD)                                                                       1,159.1                       2,131.0      +84%        2,346.8


      Investm ent (% of GDP)                                                                        14.6                          20.8       +42%         21.8


      General Government Debt (% of GDP)                                                            59.2                          42.2       -29%         40.13


      External Debt (% of GDP)                                                                      52.7                          30.1       -43%         28.44


      OF Rem ittances (USD bn)                                                                      10.7                          18.8       +76%         20.1


      Current Account (% of GDP)                                                                     1.9                              4.5    +137%        3.14


      Gross International Reserves (USD bn)                                                         18.5                          62.4       +237%        77.45

   Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (“BSP”), National Economic and Development Authority (“NEDA”), Department of Finance (“DOF”)
   1/ At constant 2000 prices               3/ Preliminary Q1 2011 data
   2/ At current prices                     4/ For Jan – Sep 2011
                                            5/ As of Jan 2012




                                                                                                                                                                   55
Economy: Healthy and Stable
    A stab le economy highlighted b y continued positive growth




             52 consecutive quarters of positive GDP grow th since 1999                                                Relative stability m easured by GDP volatility (2000 – 2010)
              8                                                                                                 2.6   Real GDP growth ranked by mean
                                                                                                  7.6
                                                                                                                       16.0%
              7                                         6.7                                                     2.4
                                                                             6.6

                                                                                                                       12.0%
              6                                                                                                 2.2

                                                                      5.2
                                                 5
              5                                                4.8                                              2        8.0%
                            4.4
                                                                                    4.2
              4                                                                                          3.7    1.8
                                          3.6                                                                            4.0%
                    3.1
                                   2.9
              3                                                                                                 1.6
                                                                                                                         0.0%

              2                                                                                                 1.4

                                                                                           1.1                         (4.0%)
              1                                                                                                 1.2


                                                                                                                       (8.0%)
              0                                                                                                 1


                                                                                                                                   China




                                                                                                                                                        Malaysia




                                                                                                                                                                                            Turkey




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Brazil
                                                                                                                                            Indonesia




                                                                                                                                                                                 Thailand
                                                                                                                                                                   Philippines
                     1999

                            2000

                                   2001

                                          2002

                                                 2003

                                                        2004

                                                               2005

                                                                      2006

                                                                             2007

                                                                                    2008

                                                                                           2009

                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                         2011




                                     Real GDP Growth Rate (LHS)
                                     Nominal GDP Per Capita (Rebased to 1999=1, RHS)                                                       Hi / Low Real GDP Growth              Mean Real GDP Growth




Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (“NSCB”),
IMF World Economic Outlook (“WEO”) Database for 2000-2010 GDP data for other countries                                                                                                                        66
Government Reforms: The Focus on Good Governance
   Good governance agenda with emphasis on fiscal discipline, transparency and accountability




                                                         Key Reforms Instituted by the Administration


              Prudent fiscal controls coupled w ith intensified revenue collection efforts over the past year have laid the framew ork for efficient budgetary
              allocation in 2012
              Tax reform m easures including the indexation of sin taxes (alcohol and tobacco product taxes) and the rationalization of fiscal incentives
              aim to further improve the fiscal position
              Tighter prioritization of expenditures through the Zero Based Budgeting approach, improved composition of expenditures and quality
              of government services
              Rigorous im plementation of RATE, RATS, RIPS program s to go after evaders, smugglers, corrupt officials, respectively, have improved
              tax collection
              Contracts and public tenders are now posted on public w ebsites to instill transparency in the procurement process
              Set-up BIR key performance indicators and publish actual results; establish appropriate performance standards and evaluations
              Enacted the GOCC Governance Act of 2011 w hich lays the groundw ork for enhanced discipline in GOCCs
              Set up the Debt Managem ent Office at the Department of Finance w hich is tasked to formulate and oversee the implementation of the
              Republic’s debt management strategy




                                                                                                 Transparency and
                                             Fiscal Discipline
                                                                                                    Accountability



Source: BSP                                                                                                                                                      77
Fiscal Reform Under the Aquino Administration
   Getting on a sustainab le fiscal path with improving fiscal metrics




                                                                                       Strict im plementation of adm inistrative reform measures
                                                               Actual                  at the BIR and BOC to im prove revenue generation

                                                                                              Run After the Tax Evaders Program (“RATE”)
                                               2008    2009         2010      2011         RATE is a program initiated by the Department of Finance
                                                                                           (“DOF”) and Bureau of Internal Revenue (“BIR”) to investigate
                                                                                           and prosecute individuals or entities engaged in tax evasion

            Rev enues (% of GDP)               15.6    14.0         13.4      14.0         RATE is enhancing voluntary compliance and promoting the
                                                                                           confidence of the public in the tax system

                                                                                           87 tax evasion cases filed as of Jan 31, 2012 with total tax
                                                                                           liabilities of P36.1 billion
               Rev enue Grow th (%)            5.8     (6.6)            7.5   12.6
                                                                                              Run After the Sm ugglers Program (“RATS”)
                                                                                           RATS is a vigorous campaign against smugglers that was
                                                                                           launched in 2005
            Expenditures (% of GDP)            16.5    17.7         16.9      16.0
                                                                                           Revitalized RATS program zeroes in not only on smugglers
                                                                                           but even on Bureau of Customs (“BOC”) officers and personnel
                                                                                           who may be involved in illegal operations

            Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)          (0.9)   (3.7)        (3.5)     (2.0)        66 smuggling cases filed as February 15, 2012 with total
                                                                                           dutiable value of P59.7 billion

                                                                                               Revenue Integrity Protection Service (“RIPS”)
            General Gov ernment Debt
                                               44.2    44.3         42.2      40.1 1       RIPS was created to address persistent reports of corruption in
            (% of GDP)
                                                                                           revenue generating agencies of the government that lead to
                                                                                           collection shortfalls

                                                                                           29 cases filed with the Office of the Ombudsman involving 31
Source: NSCB, Bureau of the Treasury (“BTr”)
1/Preliminary Q1 2011 data                                                                 government personnel
                                                                                                                                                             88
National Government’s Fiscal Consolidation Efforts on Track
    Fiscal performance further solidifies under the Aquino Administration




                                          National Governm ent’s P197.8 billion deficit in 2011 w as 37.1% low er than last year




                                        Revenues                                 Expenditures                               Surplus/(Deficit)




                        2,000
                                                                                                             (3.7%) of GDP
                                                                                    1,522       1,558
                        1,600                       1,360                1,422
                                1,123     1,208
                        1,200                                                                                               (3.5%) of GDP
         PHP Billions




                         800                                                                                                             (2.0%) of GDP

                         400
                           0
                        (400)                                                                                       (299)                   (198)
                                                                            2009 2010 2011
                                                                                                                                 (315)




Source: BTr                                                                                                                                              99
Prudent Debt Management
   Domestic / foreign b orrowing mix effectively managed



         Prudent strategies to finance the annual funding requirement m inimize foreign exchange risk and increase funding self-sufficiency

         National Government Gross Financing
                                                                                                                             5.9%            10.9%
         100%
                                                                                                    14.2%
                                   34.2%                                        26.6%
          80%                                   35.5%                                                                        28.5%
                    45.3%                                     43.4%                                         43.8%                            22.4%

          60%

          40%                                                                                       85.8%
                                                                                73.4%
                                   65.8%        64.5%                                                                        65.6%           66.7%
                    54.7%                                     56.6%                                         56.2%
          20%

           0%
                     2003           2004        2005          2006              2007                2008    2009             2010        Jan-Nov 2011


                                                           Global-Peso Notes    Foreign         Domestic

                             External com ponent of National Governm ent debt has been gradually declining over the years

                            2003                                           2006                                             2010




                                                                 44.1%                                              42.4%
                   49.2%
                                     50.8%                                              55.9%                                        57.6%




                                                                      Foreign      Domestic
Source: DOF, BTr                                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                                                         10
Improving Debt Sustainability
    Proactively managing the liability profile




                                The National Government’s foreign and domestic debts have grown longer dated over time

                                                                                                Domestic Debt
                                                     2003                              2005                              2010                             Jan – Nov 2011

                                                                                                                                                                     10%
                   Reduced rollover risk                       29%                                                                     19%
                                            27%                              29%                 29%
                   and increased debt
                   carrying capacity over                                                                                                                                     20%
                   the past ten years

                                                                                                                                        27%         70%
                   Debt portfolio has                                                                         54%
                   become significantly                     44%                              42%
                   longer in tenor
                                                                                                    Foreign Debt
                   New issue yields                 2003                              2005                                2010                            Jan – Nov 2011

                   decreasing and                 10%                                4%
                   foreign currency-
                   denominated bonds
                   are receiving a
                   substantial bid from
                   onshore investors

                                                               90%                            96%                                 100%
                                                                                                                                                                       100%



                                              Short term – 1 y ear or less     Medium term – bey ond 1 y ear but less than 10 y ears         Long-term – bey ond 10 y ears



Source: DOF, BTr                                                                                                                                                                    11
                                                                                                                                                                                     11
Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt
    Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength




        External debt is supported by growing current account receipts                                                                                                         Am ple reserves to cover debt service burden
                                                                                                                                                                  Improving external debt ratios underpin the country’s
                                                                                                                                                                  strengthening external payments position

      140%                                                                                                                                                         14
                             11 5.5%




                                                   1 13 .6 %
                                        1 09.6 %
                   102 .8%




      120%                                                                                                                                                         12
                                                               98.3%




                                                                                                                                                9 3.4%
                                                                                                                              9 0.7%
                                                                       8 9.9%




      100%                                                                                                                                                         10

                                                                                                           77 .0 %
                                                                                76 .1 %

                                                                                          7 0.0%

                                                                                                   68.1%




                                                                                                                     67.7 %
       80%                                                                                                                                                          8


       60%                                                                                                                                                          6


       40%                                                                                                                                                          4


       20%                                                                                                                                                          2


         0%                                                                                                                                                         0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan- Nov 2 010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan- Nov 2 011
                                                                                                                              Ja n- Sep 201 0

                                                                                                                                                Ja n- Sep 201 1
                   200 0

                             200 1

                                        200 2

                                                   200 3

                                                               200 4

                                                                       200 5

                                                                                200 6

                                                                                          200 7

                                                                                                   200 8

                                                                                                           200 9

                                                                                                                     201 0




                                                                                                                                                                        2000

                                                                                                                                                                               2001

                                                                                                                                                                                      2002

                                                                                                                                                                                             2003

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010
                                       External Debt / Current Account Receipts                                                                                                                        GIR / Debt Service Burden



Source: BSP, BTr                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12
Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt (cont’d)
    Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength




     External debt ratios have declined significantly over the last 6 years                                                            Revenue allocated to debt service has declined drastically



      90




                                                                                                                                                37%
                                                                                                                                 40%




                                                                                                                                                       37%
                                                                                                                                         35%
      80
                                                                                                                                 35%




                                                                                                                                                                   32%
                                      68.6
                      68.3

                              66.1
              63.4




      70
                                              60.2




                                                                                                                                 30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                 25%


                                                                                                                                                                                                        24%
      60
                                                         52.7




                                                                                                                                                                             24%


                                                                                                                                                                                      23%
                                                                                                                                 25%




                                                                                                                                                                                                               21%
                                                                44.1




      50
                                                                       37.1




                                                                                                                                 20%
      40
                                                                                     32.6
                                                                              31.3




                                                                                                     31.3
                                                                                            30.1



                                                                                                                  28.4
                                                                                                                                 15%
      30

      20                                                                                                                         10%


      10                                                                                                                         5%

       0                                                                                                                         0%
                                                                                                   Jan-Sep 2010

                                                                                                                  Jan-Sep 2011
              2000

                      2001

                              2002

                                      2003

                                              2004

                                                         2005

                                                                2006

                                                                       2007

                                                                              2008

                                                                                     2009

                                                                                            2010




                                                                                                                                       2003    2004   2005       2006      2007     2008     2009      2010   2011

                                                     External Debt / GDP                                                                                     NG Interest Payments / NG Revenue




Source: BSP, BTr
Debt servicing costs are for national government data and cover interest payments                                                                                                                                    13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      13
Strong External Payments Position
          BOP supported b y rob ust growth of remittances and BPO revenues



                                                                                                                                                      Rem ittances have tripled in a decade
                                                                                                                      24
                           7 consecutive years of balance of paym ents surplus                                        22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20.1
                                                                                                                      20                                                                                     18 .8
                                                                                                                                                                                                     17.3
                                                                                                                      18                                                                      16.4




                                                                                                      USD Billions
                  20,000                                                                                              16                                                              14.5
                                                                                                                      14                                                    12.8
                                                                                        14,308                        12                                           10.7
                                                                                                                      10                                    8 .6
                  15,000                                                                                                                              7.6
                                                                                                                       8                 6.9
                                                                                                                                6.0
                                                                                             10,179                    6
                                                                   8,557                                               4
   USD Millions




                  10,000                                                        6,421                                  2
                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                2001     2002     2003      2004   2 005    20 06     2007   20 08   200 9   2010    2011
                                                           3,769
                   5,000                                                                                                                                            OFW Remittances
                                                   2,410                   89
                                                                                                                                                 BPO revenues continue to grow rapidly
                           -202 810
                                      115
                      0                                                                                                    14

                                                                                                                           12                                                                                    10.9
                                            -280
                                                                                                                           10                                                                          8.9
                                                                                                            USD Billions




                  -5,000
                           2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011                                           8                                                                7.1
                                                                                                                                                                                6.1
                                                                                                                            6                                        4.9
                               Current Account                      Capital + Financ. Account
                               Other                                BOP Position                                            4                               3.3
                                                                                                                                                2.4
                                                                                                                            2     1.5

                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                  2004         2005         2006     2007       2008         2009     2010      2011E

                                                                                                                                                                      BPO Rev enues
Source: BSP                                                                                                                                                                                                                 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             14
Growing Foreign Exchange Reserves
The growing stock of FX reserves shields the economy from external shocks




                                        Foreign exchange reserves continue to grow at a record high
      The Philippines is now a net external creditor; foreign exchange reserves of US$77.4 billion more than covers the country’s total
      external debt as of September 2011 of US$62.4billion
      As of end-January 2012, the country’s foreign exchange reserves could cover 11.4 months worth of imports of goods and
      payments of services and income
      At this level, reserves are equal to 10.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity
      Foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a healthy buffer from external shocks

                                                                                                              11.1        11.4
                     80                                                                                                          12

                     70                                                                             9.6
                                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                           8.7
                     60
      USD Billions




                                                                                                                                 8
                     50
                                                                               6.0
                                                                     5.8
                     40                                                                                               77.4       6
                                                                                                            75.3
                                                             4.2
                                                                      x
                     30           4.0             3.8                                             62.4
                           4.0           3.6                                                                                     4
                     20                                                                  44.2
                                                                             37.6
                                                                    33.8
                                                                                                                                 2
                     10                                    23.0
                          16.4   17.1   16.2     18.5

                     0                                                                                                           0
                          2002   2003   2004     2005      2006    2007      2008        2009     2010      2011     Jan-12

                                                FX Resrves (LHS)            Import Cover (RHS)
 Source: BSP


                                                                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                                           15
Strong External Position is Supportive of the Peso
    The Philippine Peso is stab le relative to currencies of other emerging market economies




                         The Peso has remained stable in recent years                            Peso m ore stable than peers’ currencies

                                                                                  3 Months Realized Volatility
       55
                                                                            160

       53
                                                                            140
       51

                                                                            120
       49


       47                                                                   100



       45                                                                    80

                                           2010 Av g:
       43                                 PHP45.1/USD
                                                                             60
                                                         2011 Av g:
                                                        PHP43.3/USD
       41
                                                                             40
       39

                                                                             20
       37


       35                                                                     0
                                                                                    Jul-97

                                                                                    Jul-98

                                                                                    Jul-99

                                                                                    Jul-00

                                                                                    Jul-01

                                                                                    Jul-02

                                                                                    Jul-03

                                                                                    Jul-04

                                                                                    Jul-05

                                                                                    Jul-06

                                                                                    Jul-07

                                                                                    Jul-08

                                                                                    Jul-09

                                                                                    Jul-10

                                                                                    Jul-11
                                                                                   Jan-98

                                                                                   Jan-99

                                                                                   Jan-00

                                                                                   Jan-01

                                                                                   Jan-02

                                                                                   Jan-03

                                                                                   Jan-04

                                                                                   Jan-05

                                                                                   Jan-06

                                                                                   Jan-07

                                                                                   Jan-08

                                                                                   Jan-09

                                                                                   Jan-10

                                                                                   Jan-11

                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                           Philippine Peso       Turkish Lira   Indonesian Rupiah
                                                                                           South African Rand    Thai Baht

Source: BSP, Bloomberg 29 December 2011                                                                                                             16
                                                                                                                                                     16
External Position is Supported by Moderate Exposure to EU Headwinds
   Limited reliance on EU markets shelters the economy from external b oom-bust cycles




                Financial sector risk from EU exposure is limited                                       Lim ited trade and financial dependence on EU

              The banking sector continues to fund itself primarily                                                                 2010         2011      2011 Actual Value
              through domestic deposits eliminating the need for
                                                                                           Exports to EU / Total Exports            14.4%       12.3%                US$5.89bn
              external financing
                                                                                           Imports f rom EU / Total Imports         7.2%        7.4%                 US$4.45bn
              Domestic banks have limited exposure to EU
              assets, mitigating the potential impact from NPLs or                         Net EU FDI / Total FDI 1                 -9.1%       -39.2%               -US$0.31bn
              financial instrument contagion                                               OF Remittances from Europe /
                                                                                                                                    17.0%       16.6%                US$3.3bn
                                                                                           Total Remittances 2
              Local banking system’s consistently improving asset
                                                                                          1/ Period covers Jan-Nov
              quality, good liquidity and favorable capital profile serve                 2/ 53.0% of all remittances come from the Americas, 16.6% from Europe, 16.0%
              as a buffer to external and domestic shock                                  from the Middle East ,12.8% from Asia, and 1.6% from other regions

                            The econom y is less susceptible to
                                                                                           Lim ited im pact of global economic shock on real economy
                               trade shock than other EMs
           Trade Openness 2010: Higher number indicates more vulnerability                2009 GDP Growth Shock
           to trade shock                                                                   ST DEV
                                                                                                        0.0   1.0     2.0     3.0         4.0     5.0          6.0       7.0      8.0

            Malaysia                                                                          Turkey                                                                             7.5

             Taiwan                                                                         Malaysia                                                     5.3

            Thailand                                                                        Thailand                                                     5.3

          Philippines                                                                        Taiwan                                              4.5

               China                                                                      Philippines                               3.1

           Indonesia                                                                           China                1.5

              Turkey                                                                       Indonesia          0.7


                        0         20           40            60           80      100       Growth Shock: Standard deviation seen in 2009 GDP growth
     Trade Openness: Sum of US dollar value of current account transactions as % of GDP     compared with the preceding five-year average growth rate

Source: BSP, IMF WEO Apr 2011 release, Fitch Sovereign Data Comparator Dec 2011                                                                                                         17
                                                                                                                                                                                         17
Credible Monetary Policy
     Refinements in the inflation targeting framework has allowed the BSP to meet its inflation target for 3 consecutive years




                               The Republic has achieved the right policy balance between containing inflation and supporting economic growth

              14
                                                                                                                                                      Global inflationary cycle
              12
              10
                8                                                                                                                                                                                           January
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
                6
                4                                                                                                                                                                                              3.9
                2
                0
                            2002




                                           2003




                                                         2004




                                                                             2005




                                                                                               2006




                                                                                                                    2007




                                                                                                                               2008




                                                                                                                                               2009




                                                                                                                                                                   2010




                                                                                                                                                                                         2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
                                                                             Headline                 Lower Bound of Target    Upper Bound of Target


                                                                       Liquidity and dom estic interest rates remain supportive
                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec 2011:
                            5,000                                                                                                                                                        P4,674bn      14
                            4,500
                            4,000                                                                                                                                                                      12

                            3,500                                                                                                                                                                      10
              PHP billion




                            3,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   %
                            2,500                                                                                                                                                                      8
                                                                                                                                                                                                6.1%
                            2,000
                            1,500                                                                                                                                                                      6
                            1,000                                                                                                                                                                      4
                              500                                                                                                                                                               4.5%
                                0                                                                                                                                                                      2
                                    2002          2003          2004                2005         2006               2007      2008          2009               2010               2011

                                                                       M3 (LHS)            Bank Lending Rates (RHS)           Reverse Repurchase Rate (RHS)

Source: BSP                                                                                                                                                                                                            18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18
Resilient Banking System
        Improving asset quality and strong prudential ratios underpin soundness of the b anking system


                                                                                                                                               Strong capitalization above international norms
               Improving asset quality has minimized the risk of a potential                                                     Capital Adequacy Ratio (“CAR”) (%)
               banking-system led crisis                                                                                         20%                                                                                     17.4%
               The resilience demonstrated by the Philippine banking system                                                      18%
               is highlighted by the decrease in system-wide Non-Performing                                                      16%
               Loans (“NPL”) and Non-Performing Assets (“NPA”) levels                                                            14%                                                                                     16.5%
               even at the heart of the global financial crisis                                                                  12%
               NPL coverage ratios have strengthened as insurance against                                                        10%
               potential future asset deterioration, and underpin the                                                             8%
               conservative nature of the banking system                                                                                2001    2002    2003    2004     2005    2006    2007     2008     2009     2010    End-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun
                                                                                                                                                        CAR, Solo                  CAR, Cons olidated                       2011



               System -wide NPL level has show n sustained im provement                                                                  While NPLs have shrunk, NPL coverage ratios have
                         even through the global financial crisis                                                                                           strengthened

     4,000                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                          3,500.6
     3,500                                                                                                                       120
                                                                                                                      16                                                                                                 102.6%
     3,000                                                                                                                       100
     2,500                                                                                                            12         80
     2,000
                                                                                                                      8          60
     1,500
     1,000                                                                                                  3.1%                 40
                                                                                                                      4
        500                                                                                                                      20
           0                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                  0
                2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 end-                                                                 2001    2002    2003    2004    2005     2006    2007    2008     2009     2010   end-
                                                                  Sept                                                                                                                                                   Sept
                                                                  2011                                                                                                                                                   2011
                                 Total Loan Portfolio, Gross                                  NPL Ratio                                                                NPL Coverag e Rati o
Source: BSP
NPA Ratio is equal to the percentage of assets that are no longer paying interest or principal as a percentage of total assets                                                                                                     19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    19
Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
      ROP is showing improvement on several governance and competitiveness indicators




                                                                                                                         2009/2010                          2010/2011*     Change
              World Bank Governm ent Effectiveness Indicator                                                                    51                                  52    1 percentile

              Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index                                                        139                                 134     5 places

              World Econom ic Forum (“WEF”) Com petitiveness Rankings

              Overall                                                                                                           85                                  75     10 places

                   Institutions                                                                                                125                                 117     8 places

                   Macro environment                                                                                            68                                  54     14 places

                   Higher Education and Training                                                                                73                                  71     2 places

                   Goods and Market Efficiency                                                                                  97                                  88     9 places

                   Technological Readiness                                                                                      95                                  83     12 places

                   Financial Market Development                                                                                 75                                  71     4 places

                   Business Sophistication                                                                                      60                                  57     3 places

                   Innovation                                                                                                  111                                 108     3 places




Source: World Bank , Transparency International and WEF
*World Bank Governance Indicators and Transparency International values are for the year 2010 / World Economic Forum Rankings values are from the 2011/2012 report data                  20
                                                                                                                                                                                          20
Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
     Progress has b een recognized by the rating agencies




             “The national government recorded a           “The strength of the Philippines’ external                                                  “The upgrade in June reflects progress
             small fiscal surplus, building upon the       balance sheet and fav orable grow th                                                        on fiscal consolidation against a track
             notable turnaround in fiscal                  traj ectory support the sovereign credit                                                    record of macro stability, broadly
             management seen during 2H 2010. Much          ratings on the country. Structural                                                          fav orable economic prospects and
             of the improvement has been attributed to     strengths of the current account                                                            strengthening external finances”
             the progress made in fiscal                   appear sufficiently w ell entrenched”
             consolidation by the new Aquino
             administration”


                               Moo dy's                                                               S&P                                                                   Fi tch
           Baa3                                            BBB-                                                                                        BBB-
                                                                                                                                                                               Last upgraded to BB+
                                                                                                                                                                                   (June 23, 2011)
           Ba1                                             BB+                                                                                         BB+
                                    Last upgraded to Ba2                                             Last upgraded to BB
                                       (June 15, 2011)                                               (November 12, 2010)
           Ba2                                             BB                                                                                          BB


           Ba3                                             BB-                                                                                         BB-
                                                                                                            S&P: Positive Outlook
                                                                                                             (December 16, 2011)
            B1                                             B+                                                                                          B+

            B                                               B                                                                                           B

            B-                                              B-                                                                                         B-
             2000

             2001

             2002
             2003

             2004

             2005
             2006

             2007

             2008

             2009

             2010

             2011




                                                                  2000

                                                                         2001

                                                                                2002

                                                                                       2003

                                                                                              2004
                                                                                                     2005

                                                                                                             2006

                                                                                                                    2007

                                                                                                                           2008
                                                                                                                                  2009

                                                                                                                                         2010

                                                                                                                                                2011




                                                                                                                                                              2000

                                                                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                                                              2002

                                                                                                                                                              2003

                                                                                                                                                              2004

                                                                                                                                                              2005
                                                                                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                                                              2007

                                                                                                                                                              2008

                                                                                                                                                              2009

                                                                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                                                              2011
                                                                                                                                                             2000
                                                                                                                                                             2000
                                                                                                                                                             2001
                                                                                                                                                             2001
                                                                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                                                             2003
                                                                                                                                                             2003
                                                                                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                                                                             2005
                                                                                                                                                             2005
                                                                                                                                                             2006
                                                                                                                                                             2006
                                                                                                                                                             2007
                                                                                                                                                             2007
                                                                                                                                                             2008
                                                                                                                                                             2008
                                                                                                                                                             2009
                                                                                                                                                             2009
                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                                                             2011
                                                                                                                                                             2011
           2000
           2000
           2001
           2001
           2002
           2002
           2003
           2003
           2004
           2004
           2005
           2005
           2006
           2006
           2007
           2007
           2008
           2008
           2009
           2009
           2010
           2010
           2011
           2011




Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch                                                                                                                                                                           21
                                                                                                                                                                                                       21
Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
Low CDS spreads and record high performance of the PSE are proofs of positive investor sentiment on the Philippines



                                     Philippines’ CDS levels are tighter than some higher rated peers
                          1400                                                                       Ratings          CDS level as of
                                                                                  Country
                                                                                                (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch)    1 March 2012
                          1200                                               Brazil               Baa2/BBB/BBB            135.1
                                                                             Peru                 Baa3/BBB/BBB            140.3
                          1000
                                                                             Philippines            Ba2/BB/BB+            155.5
                          800                                                Indonesia            Baa3/BB+/BBB-           166.2
                                                                             Turkey                 Ba2/BB/BB+            232.2
                          600
                                                                             India                Baa3/BBB-/BBB-          283.5
                          400

                          200

                             0




                                       Philippines   India   Brazil          Peru           Indonesia     Turkey


                                       Philippine Stock Exchange index sustains its bullish trend
                          5500

                          4500

                          3500                                                                                               5,016.3 pts
                                                                                                                             2 Mar 2012
                          2500

                          1500




                                                                      PSE index



Source: Bloomberg, Data                                                                                                                    22
                                                                                                                                            22
Economic Outlook
Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting




                         2012 Growth Outlook                                                       2012 Macroeconomic Assumptions
                 (growth rate, in %, at constant prices)
                                Actual                 2012 Assumption*
                                                                                                    Parameter                                    2012
                        2010          2011              Low               High
 GDP                      7.6            3.7             5.0                6.0    Inflation Target (1)                                         3% - 5%
 GNI                      8.2            2.6             4.0                5.0    FX rate (1)                                                P42 – P45
Demand Side                                                                        Crude oil (1)                                         $90 - $110 / barrel
  HH Cons.               3.35            6.1             4.6                5.6    Merchandise Export Growth (1)                                 10%
  Govt. Cons.             4.0            (0.7)           4.0                4.6
                                                                                   Merchandise Import Growth (1)                                 15%
  Investment            31.61          11.1              8.9              10.2
                                                                                  External Accounts
  Total Exports          21.0            -3.8            8.4                9.3
                                                                                   Balance of Payments (2)                                      $2.8 bn
  Total Imports          22.5            1.9             9.7              10.4
                                                                                   Current Account (2)                                          $4.3 bn
 Supply Side
                                                                                   Gross International Reserves (2)                             $79.0 bn
  Agriculture            (0.2)           2.6             4.1                5.0
  Industry               11.6            1.9             5.6                6.6    Remittances (2)                                              $21.1 bn

  Services                7.2            5.0             4.9                5.9    Remittance growth (2)                                           5%
*DBCC approved only the GDP growth rate. Assumption details may still change.     (1) DBCC approved as of Jan 25,2012; (2) Based on BSP projections as approved by
                                                                                  the Monetary Board on 2 December 2011




                                                                                                                                                                     23
                                                                                                                                                                      23
Economic Outlook
  Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting




                     Near-term Policy Directions                                Accelerated government spending to support
                                                                                             domestic demand

   • Stimulating domestic demand                                        • Early release of funds for infrastructure projects
         Sustaining domestic consumption                                      72.1% or P150.2 billion allocation for capital outlays in
         Securing investments                                                 2012 has already been released to agencies like
   • Accelerating fiscal spending and infrastructure outlays                  DPWH, DA, DepEd
   • Diversifying domestic and external trade                                 Sixteen (16) projects under PPP are already in the pipeline
   • Strengthening economic relations with fast-growing ASEAN                     Estimated cost P140.8 billion
     economies; seizing the opportunity from China rebalancing          • More efficient and faster process due to the implementation of
                                                                          bureaucratic reforms in budget management and
                                                                          administration initiated in 2011.
                                                                        • Accelerated budget execution process
              Global and Domestic Risks to Growth
                                                                              99.6% of the budget for PS and 90.4% for MOOE have
                                                                              already been released 1/
   • External Risks
         Balance sheet issues and weak consumption in the US
         Fiscal problems and sluggish output in the Eurozone

   • Internal Risks
         Weak industry output
          Damages in agriculture and infrastructure due to natural
         calamities
         Timely and effective implementation of Disbursements
         Acceleration Program


1/ as of January 17, 2012
                                                                                                                                            24
                                                                                                                                             24
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation

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Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation

  • 1. Good Governance for a Better Tomorrow Philippine Economic Briefing Policy Agenda, Fiscal and Macroeconomic Updates Philippine International Convention Center Pasay City, Philippines 6 March 2012
  • 2. Agenda I. Executive Summary 3 II. Government’s Focus on Governance and Near Term Goals 4 III. Economic and Fiscal Updates Healthy, Sustained and Inclusive Economic Growth 5 Rapidly Improving Public Finances 7 Prudent Debt Management 10 Strong External Payments Position 14 Credible Monetary Policy with Strong Track Record 18 Resilient Banking System 19 Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results 20 IV. Economic and Fiscal Outlook 23 V. Key Investment Areas 33 VI. Profiles of Government Officials and Speakers from the Private Sector 47 VII. Investor Relations Office Brochure 66 22
  • 3. The Philippines: Pushing Forward on All Fronts Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and governance reforms enabled the economy to sustain its positive momentum in 2011 •Resilient and stable economic growth driven by strong domestic consumer base and growing investment •Prudent fiscal management focused on fiscal consolidation and medium-term debt sustainability •Strong external payments position supported by large foreign exchange reserves, robust overseas foreign remittances and a net external creditor balance •Credible and effective monetary policy that has ensured price stability through its proactive stance and independent approach to policy implementation •Stable banking system, which is resilient to external shocks due to low NPLs, strong prudential ratios and stable domestic funding sources •Reform-minded Administration with a growing track record of good governance, prudent fiscal and budgetary management and sustained popular support from the Filipino people Growing third-party recognition with several credit rating upgrades over the past two years and ongoing market appetite 33
  • 4. An Administration Focused on Good Governance and Near-Term Goals The Aquino administration has made significant achievements and has set clear goals for the future “From the beginning of my campaign, I have maintained that the job of the President is composed of three things…first is the efficient allocation of resources – that as a country with a sizable debt and limited resources, we must be able to utilize these resources to the maximum benefit of our people. Second is to make certain that, as we walk the path to progress, no one is left behind… it is the government’s job to promote inclusive growth and the third is the bedrock on which the first two are built on — the idea that by curbing corruption we can reduce poverty.” - - President Benigno S. Aquino III, Feb. 21, 2012 The President’s Social Contract Priority Areas • Rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth • A re-awakened sense of right and Stable macroeconomic environment, low inflation and sustainable wrong, through the living examples of our fiscal position; GDP growth of 7% to 8% for at least 6 yrs highest leaders; Public private partnership; integrated and multimodal national transport • An organized and widely-shared rapid and logistics system expansion of our economy through a Adequate and responsive formal education structure and program National Health Insurance Coverage Program government dedicated to honing and mobilizing our people’s skills and energies Communication, education and advocacy program for population as well as the responsible harnessing of our development natural resources; • Anti-corruption/transparent, accountable and participatory governance Government Integrated Financial Management Information System • A collective belief that doing the right thing and procurement reforms; does not only make sense morally, but also translates into economic value as well; and Enhance role of Local Government Units in the anti-corruption drive • Poverty reduction and empowerment of the poor and vulnerable • Public institutions rebuilt on the strong Focus on comparative advantage in more labor-intensive activities; solidarity of our society and its communities Credit access for poor; Regional savings generation Conditional cash transfers • Just and lasting peace and the Rule of Law; and • Integrity of the environment and climate change mitigation and adaptation Measure to mitigate potential negative impact of environmental factors 44
  • 5. Economy: Healthy and Stable A healthy economy supported b y sustained improvements across credit metrics 2005 vs. 2010 2011 2005 2010 Difference Real GDP Grow th1 (%) 4.8 7.6 +58% 3.7 GDP Per Capita2 (USD) 1,159.1 2,131.0 +84% 2,346.8 Investm ent (% of GDP) 14.6 20.8 +42% 21.8 General Government Debt (% of GDP) 59.2 42.2 -29% 40.13 External Debt (% of GDP) 52.7 30.1 -43% 28.44 OF Rem ittances (USD bn) 10.7 18.8 +76% 20.1 Current Account (% of GDP) 1.9 4.5 +137% 3.14 Gross International Reserves (USD bn) 18.5 62.4 +237% 77.45 Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (“BSP”), National Economic and Development Authority (“NEDA”), Department of Finance (“DOF”) 1/ At constant 2000 prices 3/ Preliminary Q1 2011 data 2/ At current prices 4/ For Jan – Sep 2011 5/ As of Jan 2012 55
  • 6. Economy: Healthy and Stable A stab le economy highlighted b y continued positive growth 52 consecutive quarters of positive GDP grow th since 1999 Relative stability m easured by GDP volatility (2000 – 2010) 8 2.6 Real GDP growth ranked by mean 7.6 16.0% 7 6.7 2.4 6.6 12.0% 6 2.2 5.2 5 5 4.8 2 8.0% 4.4 4.2 4 3.7 1.8 3.6 4.0% 3.1 2.9 3 1.6 0.0% 2 1.4 1.1 (4.0%) 1 1.2 (8.0%) 0 1 China Malaysia Turkey Brazil Indonesia Thailand Philippines 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP Growth Rate (LHS) Nominal GDP Per Capita (Rebased to 1999=1, RHS) Hi / Low Real GDP Growth Mean Real GDP Growth Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (“NSCB”), IMF World Economic Outlook (“WEO”) Database for 2000-2010 GDP data for other countries 66
  • 7. Government Reforms: The Focus on Good Governance Good governance agenda with emphasis on fiscal discipline, transparency and accountability Key Reforms Instituted by the Administration Prudent fiscal controls coupled w ith intensified revenue collection efforts over the past year have laid the framew ork for efficient budgetary allocation in 2012 Tax reform m easures including the indexation of sin taxes (alcohol and tobacco product taxes) and the rationalization of fiscal incentives aim to further improve the fiscal position Tighter prioritization of expenditures through the Zero Based Budgeting approach, improved composition of expenditures and quality of government services Rigorous im plementation of RATE, RATS, RIPS program s to go after evaders, smugglers, corrupt officials, respectively, have improved tax collection Contracts and public tenders are now posted on public w ebsites to instill transparency in the procurement process Set-up BIR key performance indicators and publish actual results; establish appropriate performance standards and evaluations Enacted the GOCC Governance Act of 2011 w hich lays the groundw ork for enhanced discipline in GOCCs Set up the Debt Managem ent Office at the Department of Finance w hich is tasked to formulate and oversee the implementation of the Republic’s debt management strategy Transparency and Fiscal Discipline Accountability Source: BSP 77
  • 8. Fiscal Reform Under the Aquino Administration Getting on a sustainab le fiscal path with improving fiscal metrics Strict im plementation of adm inistrative reform measures Actual at the BIR and BOC to im prove revenue generation Run After the Tax Evaders Program (“RATE”) 2008 2009 2010 2011 RATE is a program initiated by the Department of Finance (“DOF”) and Bureau of Internal Revenue (“BIR”) to investigate and prosecute individuals or entities engaged in tax evasion Rev enues (% of GDP) 15.6 14.0 13.4 14.0 RATE is enhancing voluntary compliance and promoting the confidence of the public in the tax system 87 tax evasion cases filed as of Jan 31, 2012 with total tax liabilities of P36.1 billion Rev enue Grow th (%) 5.8 (6.6) 7.5 12.6 Run After the Sm ugglers Program (“RATS”) RATS is a vigorous campaign against smugglers that was launched in 2005 Expenditures (% of GDP) 16.5 17.7 16.9 16.0 Revitalized RATS program zeroes in not only on smugglers but even on Bureau of Customs (“BOC”) officers and personnel who may be involved in illegal operations Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (0.9) (3.7) (3.5) (2.0) 66 smuggling cases filed as February 15, 2012 with total dutiable value of P59.7 billion Revenue Integrity Protection Service (“RIPS”) General Gov ernment Debt 44.2 44.3 42.2 40.1 1 RIPS was created to address persistent reports of corruption in (% of GDP) revenue generating agencies of the government that lead to collection shortfalls 29 cases filed with the Office of the Ombudsman involving 31 Source: NSCB, Bureau of the Treasury (“BTr”) 1/Preliminary Q1 2011 data government personnel 88
  • 9. National Government’s Fiscal Consolidation Efforts on Track Fiscal performance further solidifies under the Aquino Administration National Governm ent’s P197.8 billion deficit in 2011 w as 37.1% low er than last year Revenues Expenditures Surplus/(Deficit) 2,000 (3.7%) of GDP 1,522 1,558 1,600 1,360 1,422 1,123 1,208 1,200 (3.5%) of GDP PHP Billions 800 (2.0%) of GDP 400 0 (400) (299) (198) 2009 2010 2011 (315) Source: BTr 99
  • 10. Prudent Debt Management Domestic / foreign b orrowing mix effectively managed Prudent strategies to finance the annual funding requirement m inimize foreign exchange risk and increase funding self-sufficiency National Government Gross Financing 5.9% 10.9% 100% 14.2% 34.2% 26.6% 80% 35.5% 28.5% 45.3% 43.4% 43.8% 22.4% 60% 40% 85.8% 73.4% 65.8% 64.5% 65.6% 66.7% 54.7% 56.6% 56.2% 20% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Nov 2011 Global-Peso Notes Foreign Domestic External com ponent of National Governm ent debt has been gradually declining over the years 2003 2006 2010 44.1% 42.4% 49.2% 50.8% 55.9% 57.6% Foreign Domestic Source: DOF, BTr 10 10
  • 11. Improving Debt Sustainability Proactively managing the liability profile The National Government’s foreign and domestic debts have grown longer dated over time Domestic Debt 2003 2005 2010 Jan – Nov 2011 10% Reduced rollover risk 29% 19% 27% 29% 29% and increased debt carrying capacity over 20% the past ten years 27% 70% Debt portfolio has 54% become significantly 44% 42% longer in tenor Foreign Debt New issue yields 2003 2005 2010 Jan – Nov 2011 decreasing and 10% 4% foreign currency- denominated bonds are receiving a substantial bid from onshore investors 90% 96% 100% 100% Short term – 1 y ear or less Medium term – bey ond 1 y ear but less than 10 y ears Long-term – bey ond 10 y ears Source: DOF, BTr 11 11
  • 12. Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength External debt is supported by growing current account receipts Am ple reserves to cover debt service burden Improving external debt ratios underpin the country’s strengthening external payments position 140% 14 11 5.5% 1 13 .6 % 1 09.6 % 102 .8% 120% 12 98.3% 9 3.4% 9 0.7% 8 9.9% 100% 10 77 .0 % 76 .1 % 7 0.0% 68.1% 67.7 % 80% 8 60% 6 40% 4 20% 2 0% 0 Jan- Nov 2 010 Jan- Nov 2 011 Ja n- Sep 201 0 Ja n- Sep 201 1 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 External Debt / Current Account Receipts GIR / Debt Service Burden Source: BSP, BTr 12 12
  • 13. Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt (cont’d) Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength External debt ratios have declined significantly over the last 6 years Revenue allocated to debt service has declined drastically 90 37% 40% 37% 35% 80 35% 32% 68.6 68.3 66.1 63.4 70 60.2 30% 25% 24% 60 52.7 24% 23% 25% 21% 44.1 50 37.1 20% 40 32.6 31.3 31.3 30.1 28.4 15% 30 20 10% 10 5% 0 0% Jan-Sep 2010 Jan-Sep 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 External Debt / GDP NG Interest Payments / NG Revenue Source: BSP, BTr Debt servicing costs are for national government data and cover interest payments 13 13
  • 14. Strong External Payments Position BOP supported b y rob ust growth of remittances and BPO revenues Rem ittances have tripled in a decade 24 7 consecutive years of balance of paym ents surplus 22 20.1 20 18 .8 17.3 18 16.4 USD Billions 20,000 16 14.5 14 12.8 14,308 12 10.7 10 8 .6 15,000 7.6 8 6.9 6.0 10,179 6 8,557 4 USD Millions 10,000 6,421 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 005 20 06 2007 20 08 200 9 2010 2011 3,769 5,000 OFW Remittances 2,410 89 BPO revenues continue to grow rapidly -202 810 115 0 14 12 10.9 -280 10 8.9 USD Billions -5,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8 7.1 6.1 6 4.9 Current Account Capital + Financ. Account Other BOP Position 4 3.3 2.4 2 1.5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E BPO Rev enues Source: BSP 14 14
  • 15. Growing Foreign Exchange Reserves The growing stock of FX reserves shields the economy from external shocks Foreign exchange reserves continue to grow at a record high The Philippines is now a net external creditor; foreign exchange reserves of US$77.4 billion more than covers the country’s total external debt as of September 2011 of US$62.4billion As of end-January 2012, the country’s foreign exchange reserves could cover 11.4 months worth of imports of goods and payments of services and income At this level, reserves are equal to 10.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity Foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a healthy buffer from external shocks 11.1 11.4 80 12 70 9.6 10 8.7 60 USD Billions 8 50 6.0 5.8 40 77.4 6 75.3 4.2 x 30 4.0 3.8 62.4 4.0 3.6 4 20 44.2 37.6 33.8 2 10 23.0 16.4 17.1 16.2 18.5 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-12 FX Resrves (LHS) Import Cover (RHS) Source: BSP 15 15
  • 16. Strong External Position is Supportive of the Peso The Philippine Peso is stab le relative to currencies of other emerging market economies The Peso has remained stable in recent years Peso m ore stable than peers’ currencies 3 Months Realized Volatility 55 160 53 140 51 120 49 47 100 45 80 2010 Av g: 43 PHP45.1/USD 60 2011 Av g: PHP43.3/USD 41 40 39 20 37 35 0 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Philippine Peso Turkish Lira Indonesian Rupiah South African Rand Thai Baht Source: BSP, Bloomberg 29 December 2011 16 16
  • 17. External Position is Supported by Moderate Exposure to EU Headwinds Limited reliance on EU markets shelters the economy from external b oom-bust cycles Financial sector risk from EU exposure is limited Lim ited trade and financial dependence on EU The banking sector continues to fund itself primarily 2010 2011 2011 Actual Value through domestic deposits eliminating the need for Exports to EU / Total Exports 14.4% 12.3% US$5.89bn external financing Imports f rom EU / Total Imports 7.2% 7.4% US$4.45bn Domestic banks have limited exposure to EU assets, mitigating the potential impact from NPLs or Net EU FDI / Total FDI 1 -9.1% -39.2% -US$0.31bn financial instrument contagion OF Remittances from Europe / 17.0% 16.6% US$3.3bn Total Remittances 2 Local banking system’s consistently improving asset 1/ Period covers Jan-Nov quality, good liquidity and favorable capital profile serve 2/ 53.0% of all remittances come from the Americas, 16.6% from Europe, 16.0% as a buffer to external and domestic shock from the Middle East ,12.8% from Asia, and 1.6% from other regions The econom y is less susceptible to Lim ited im pact of global economic shock on real economy trade shock than other EMs Trade Openness 2010: Higher number indicates more vulnerability 2009 GDP Growth Shock to trade shock ST DEV 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Malaysia Turkey 7.5 Taiwan Malaysia 5.3 Thailand Thailand 5.3 Philippines Taiwan 4.5 China Philippines 3.1 Indonesia China 1.5 Turkey Indonesia 0.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 Growth Shock: Standard deviation seen in 2009 GDP growth Trade Openness: Sum of US dollar value of current account transactions as % of GDP compared with the preceding five-year average growth rate Source: BSP, IMF WEO Apr 2011 release, Fitch Sovereign Data Comparator Dec 2011 17 17
  • 18. Credible Monetary Policy Refinements in the inflation targeting framework has allowed the BSP to meet its inflation target for 3 consecutive years The Republic has achieved the right policy balance between containing inflation and supporting economic growth 14 Global inflationary cycle 12 10 8 January 2012 6 4 3.9 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Headline Lower Bound of Target Upper Bound of Target Liquidity and dom estic interest rates remain supportive Dec 2011: 5,000 P4,674bn 14 4,500 4,000 12 3,500 10 PHP billion 3,000 % 2,500 8 6.1% 2,000 1,500 6 1,000 4 500 4.5% 0 2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 M3 (LHS) Bank Lending Rates (RHS) Reverse Repurchase Rate (RHS) Source: BSP 18 18
  • 19. Resilient Banking System Improving asset quality and strong prudential ratios underpin soundness of the b anking system Strong capitalization above international norms Improving asset quality has minimized the risk of a potential Capital Adequacy Ratio (“CAR”) (%) banking-system led crisis 20% 17.4% The resilience demonstrated by the Philippine banking system 18% is highlighted by the decrease in system-wide Non-Performing 16% Loans (“NPL”) and Non-Performing Assets (“NPA”) levels 14% 16.5% even at the heart of the global financial crisis 12% NPL coverage ratios have strengthened as insurance against 10% potential future asset deterioration, and underpin the 8% conservative nature of the banking system 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 End- Jun CAR, Solo CAR, Cons olidated 2011 System -wide NPL level has show n sustained im provement While NPLs have shrunk, NPL coverage ratios have even through the global financial crisis strengthened 4,000 20 3,500.6 3,500 120 16 102.6% 3,000 100 2,500 12 80 2,000 8 60 1,500 1,000 3.1% 40 4 500 20 0 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 end- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 end- Sept Sept 2011 2011 Total Loan Portfolio, Gross NPL Ratio NPL Coverag e Rati o Source: BSP NPA Ratio is equal to the percentage of assets that are no longer paying interest or principal as a percentage of total assets 19 19
  • 20. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results ROP is showing improvement on several governance and competitiveness indicators 2009/2010 2010/2011* Change World Bank Governm ent Effectiveness Indicator 51 52 1 percentile Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index 139 134 5 places World Econom ic Forum (“WEF”) Com petitiveness Rankings Overall 85 75 10 places Institutions 125 117 8 places Macro environment 68 54 14 places Higher Education and Training 73 71 2 places Goods and Market Efficiency 97 88 9 places Technological Readiness 95 83 12 places Financial Market Development 75 71 4 places Business Sophistication 60 57 3 places Innovation 111 108 3 places Source: World Bank , Transparency International and WEF *World Bank Governance Indicators and Transparency International values are for the year 2010 / World Economic Forum Rankings values are from the 2011/2012 report data 20 20
  • 21. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results Progress has b een recognized by the rating agencies “The national government recorded a “The strength of the Philippines’ external “The upgrade in June reflects progress small fiscal surplus, building upon the balance sheet and fav orable grow th on fiscal consolidation against a track notable turnaround in fiscal traj ectory support the sovereign credit record of macro stability, broadly management seen during 2H 2010. Much ratings on the country. Structural fav orable economic prospects and of the improvement has been attributed to strengths of the current account strengthening external finances” the progress made in fiscal appear sufficiently w ell entrenched” consolidation by the new Aquino administration” Moo dy's S&P Fi tch Baa3 BBB- BBB- Last upgraded to BB+ (June 23, 2011) Ba1 BB+ BB+ Last upgraded to Ba2 Last upgraded to BB (June 15, 2011) (November 12, 2010) Ba2 BB BB Ba3 BB- BB- S&P: Positive Outlook (December 16, 2011) B1 B+ B+ B B B B- B- B- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch 21 21
  • 22. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results Low CDS spreads and record high performance of the PSE are proofs of positive investor sentiment on the Philippines Philippines’ CDS levels are tighter than some higher rated peers 1400 Ratings CDS level as of Country (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch) 1 March 2012 1200 Brazil Baa2/BBB/BBB 135.1 Peru Baa3/BBB/BBB 140.3 1000 Philippines Ba2/BB/BB+ 155.5 800 Indonesia Baa3/BB+/BBB- 166.2 Turkey Ba2/BB/BB+ 232.2 600 India Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 283.5 400 200 0 Philippines India Brazil Peru Indonesia Turkey Philippine Stock Exchange index sustains its bullish trend 5500 4500 3500 5,016.3 pts 2 Mar 2012 2500 1500 PSE index Source: Bloomberg, Data 22 22
  • 23. Economic Outlook Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting 2012 Growth Outlook 2012 Macroeconomic Assumptions (growth rate, in %, at constant prices) Actual 2012 Assumption* Parameter 2012 2010 2011 Low High GDP 7.6 3.7 5.0 6.0 Inflation Target (1) 3% - 5% GNI 8.2 2.6 4.0 5.0 FX rate (1) P42 – P45 Demand Side Crude oil (1) $90 - $110 / barrel HH Cons. 3.35 6.1 4.6 5.6 Merchandise Export Growth (1) 10% Govt. Cons. 4.0 (0.7) 4.0 4.6 Merchandise Import Growth (1) 15% Investment 31.61 11.1 8.9 10.2 External Accounts Total Exports 21.0 -3.8 8.4 9.3 Balance of Payments (2) $2.8 bn Total Imports 22.5 1.9 9.7 10.4 Current Account (2) $4.3 bn Supply Side Gross International Reserves (2) $79.0 bn Agriculture (0.2) 2.6 4.1 5.0 Industry 11.6 1.9 5.6 6.6 Remittances (2) $21.1 bn Services 7.2 5.0 4.9 5.9 Remittance growth (2) 5% *DBCC approved only the GDP growth rate. Assumption details may still change. (1) DBCC approved as of Jan 25,2012; (2) Based on BSP projections as approved by the Monetary Board on 2 December 2011 23 23
  • 24. Economic Outlook Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting Near-term Policy Directions Accelerated government spending to support domestic demand • Stimulating domestic demand • Early release of funds for infrastructure projects Sustaining domestic consumption 72.1% or P150.2 billion allocation for capital outlays in Securing investments 2012 has already been released to agencies like • Accelerating fiscal spending and infrastructure outlays DPWH, DA, DepEd • Diversifying domestic and external trade Sixteen (16) projects under PPP are already in the pipeline • Strengthening economic relations with fast-growing ASEAN Estimated cost P140.8 billion economies; seizing the opportunity from China rebalancing • More efficient and faster process due to the implementation of bureaucratic reforms in budget management and administration initiated in 2011. • Accelerated budget execution process Global and Domestic Risks to Growth 99.6% of the budget for PS and 90.4% for MOOE have already been released 1/ • External Risks Balance sheet issues and weak consumption in the US Fiscal problems and sluggish output in the Eurozone • Internal Risks Weak industry output Damages in agriculture and infrastructure due to natural calamities Timely and effective implementation of Disbursements Acceleration Program 1/ as of January 17, 2012 24 24