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아키텍트의 논리와 직관

        11 Oct. 2008
           장승운
chang.seungwoon@gmail.com
논리와 생존 본능
Evolution: Introduction
라마르크의 용불용설
               획득형질(Acquired character)은 다음 세대로 젂해짂다는
               용불용설(Theory of use and disuse)




다윈의 자연선택




드 브리스의 돌연변이설




바그너의 지리적 생리적 격리설
The Origin of Species




획득형질유젂론                                     개체간에 경쟁
 라마르크                                   T.R.맬서스의 《인구론》




                 갈라파고스

          Evolution: Darwin's Finches
101번째 원숭이 효과

어떤 영국의 동물학자가 큐슈지방에서 원숭이를 연구했
는데, 첨에 어떤 핚 마리가 고구마를 물에 씻어 먹더랍니
다. 그걸 보고 두 마리, 열 마리, 이런 식으로 점점 물에
씻어 먹는 숫자가 불어나더니, 100마리가 됐을 때,

저 멀리 홋카이도에 사는 원숭이가 고구마를 물에 씻어
먹기 시작했다고 합니다.




    어떤 집단의 집단무의식 혹은 집단지능
Mega-Trends
Consumers drive the universe. Not brands. Not products. Not
businesses.

And today’s consumers are more sophisticated than ever at
tuning out messages that do not resonate immediately with their
own desires or needs.

Relevancy—the role that a particular brand plays in consumers’
lives—is what it’s all about. Unless your brand plays a role that
consumers value, you’re wasting your time.

Understanding the context surrounding a brand’s role is
paramount to knowing what drives consumers to want what they
want.
01. High-Low Consumerism Consumers demand low prices on basic
                         goods but are willing to pay premiums
                         for products that matter more to them.
02. Individualism “The world revolves around me”

03. Choice Overload “Unlimited choice can produce genuine suffering”
04. Hiving   “homebody” mega-trend is partially attributed to Gen X
             being the first Gen to be raised largely by single parents.


05. Gender Complexity Men are becoming more “feminized,”
                      while more women are indulging in the
                      bachelor lifestyle.
06. Thirty Is the New 20

07. Geek Chic   Nerds are cool.

08. Retirement Defied
        Translating Mega-Trends into Brand Insights
•Organic IT, Forrester
         •The Real-time Enterprise, Gartner
         •Adaptive Enterprise, HP
         •On Demand, IBM
         •Agile Business, MS



                                        Digital
          Intelligent
                                      Divergence
            Object

                          Digital
                        Convergence            Organic
Going
Mobile                                           IT

                        Connected
                           IT
2006 RFID WMS & SCM Hype Cycle, Gartner Research
What is a Megacity, What is a Megatrend – Level Set


•   Megacity – is usually defined as a recognized metropolitan area with a total
    population in excess of 10 million people. Some definitions also set a minimum
    level for population density (at least 2,000 persons/square Km). For example, in
    1900, London was the largest city in the world with 6.4 million people. Tokyo is
    larger today (over 30 million people) than the ten largest cities in the world in
    1900 (London, New York, Paris, Berlin, Chicago, Vienna, Tokyo, St. Petersburg,
    Manchester, Philadelphia).



•   Megatrend – is a large, social, economical, political, environmental or
    technological change that is slow to form. Once in place, Megatrends influence a
    wide range of activities, processes and perceptions, both in government and in
    society, possibly for decades. They are underlying forces that drive trends e.g.,
    aging population, population growth, technology changes,…
What are several Megatrends that will change everyone in this rooms life
           What are several Megatrends that will change everyone in this rooms life

                         Demographic change               Urbanization

                        • Until 2030, 90% of the          • Mid-2007, 50% of the
                          world's population growth         world population is living     IT Technology
                          will occur in cities              in cities
Technology                                                                               • Digital
                                                                                           Computing; Data
• By 2015 80% of                                                                           Storage; Telecom
  current                                                                                  - Metcalfe’s and
  technology is                                                                            Moore’s Law (et
  outdated                                                                                 al)
                                                                           Growing demand for health-
       Increasing mobility                                                 and elder care
      • Traffic congestion on city                                         • Urban air pollution causes
        streets in Western Europe                                            an estimated 130,000
        will increase 188% by 2010                                           premature deaths each
        – Transportation Systems                                             year in developing
        become Intelligent                                                   countries



       Increasing scarcity of                                              Growing demand for
       natural resources                                                   safety and security
       • Cities directly or indirectly   Growing need for                  • Malfunctions of critical
         account for 60% of              environmental care                  infrastructures pose high
         world's water use                                                   risks to urban economies:
                                         • Cities cause 80% of the           in 2003, a 3-day power
                                           greenhouse gases, but             outage in NY City caused
                                           they cover only 0.4% of           loss of $1B
                                           the earth's surface
Iceberg
핚국젂자거래짂흥원(원장 김춘석)은 5개 서비스 혁싞 싞사업 모델 개발사업
을 선정하고 시범사업을 추짂핚다고 15일 밝혔다.

이번에 선정된 서비스 혁싞 싞산업 모델 개발사업은
  △매거짂 퍼블리싱 시스템(MPS) 서비스 모델 개발
  △한국형 카세어링(Carsharing) 서비스 모델 개발
  △온라인 소셜 네트워크에서의 사회적 중개 서비스 방법 개발
  △디자인 공급소와 제조업체 연계를 통핚 제조 2.0 서비스 모델 개발
  △젂통산업에서의 3차원 디지털 휴먼 네트워크를 이용핚 유비쿼터스
   서비스 산업 모델 개발 등이다.
 개발모델 개요
•   Carsharing 서비스의 Positioning




        ① 자동차를 자가용 같이 사적으로 언제나 대여하여 사용 할 수 있는 서비스
        ② 서비스에 대한 접근성 용이          ③ 서비스 사용을 위한 적절한 경제성
        ④ 서비스 이용의 편리성 보장          ⑤ 차량관리의 편이성 및 신뢰성
Before you go         Get going            On the move    Returning the car

                      Finding the car
 Joining Streetcar                           The Radio
                                                            Extending a booking


                     Unlocking & PIN


Making a booking                             Refuelling

                      Damage report
                                                            Returning the car


  confirmation                                Cleaning
                     Questions & Problem

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아키텍트의 논리와 직관

  • 1. 아키텍트의 논리와 직관 11 Oct. 2008 장승운 chang.seungwoon@gmail.com
  • 4. 라마르크의 용불용설 획득형질(Acquired character)은 다음 세대로 젂해짂다는 용불용설(Theory of use and disuse) 다윈의 자연선택 드 브리스의 돌연변이설 바그너의 지리적 생리적 격리설
  • 5. The Origin of Species 획득형질유젂론 개체간에 경쟁 라마르크 T.R.맬서스의 《인구론》 갈라파고스 Evolution: Darwin's Finches
  • 6. 101번째 원숭이 효과 어떤 영국의 동물학자가 큐슈지방에서 원숭이를 연구했 는데, 첨에 어떤 핚 마리가 고구마를 물에 씻어 먹더랍니 다. 그걸 보고 두 마리, 열 마리, 이런 식으로 점점 물에 씻어 먹는 숫자가 불어나더니, 100마리가 됐을 때, 저 멀리 홋카이도에 사는 원숭이가 고구마를 물에 씻어 먹기 시작했다고 합니다. 어떤 집단의 집단무의식 혹은 집단지능
  • 7.
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  • 12. Consumers drive the universe. Not brands. Not products. Not businesses. And today’s consumers are more sophisticated than ever at tuning out messages that do not resonate immediately with their own desires or needs. Relevancy—the role that a particular brand plays in consumers’ lives—is what it’s all about. Unless your brand plays a role that consumers value, you’re wasting your time. Understanding the context surrounding a brand’s role is paramount to knowing what drives consumers to want what they want.
  • 13. 01. High-Low Consumerism Consumers demand low prices on basic goods but are willing to pay premiums for products that matter more to them. 02. Individualism “The world revolves around me” 03. Choice Overload “Unlimited choice can produce genuine suffering” 04. Hiving “homebody” mega-trend is partially attributed to Gen X being the first Gen to be raised largely by single parents. 05. Gender Complexity Men are becoming more “feminized,” while more women are indulging in the bachelor lifestyle. 06. Thirty Is the New 20 07. Geek Chic Nerds are cool. 08. Retirement Defied Translating Mega-Trends into Brand Insights
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  • 17. •Organic IT, Forrester •The Real-time Enterprise, Gartner •Adaptive Enterprise, HP •On Demand, IBM •Agile Business, MS Digital Intelligent Divergence Object Digital Convergence Organic Going Mobile IT Connected IT
  • 18.
  • 19. 2006 RFID WMS & SCM Hype Cycle, Gartner Research
  • 20. What is a Megacity, What is a Megatrend – Level Set • Megacity – is usually defined as a recognized metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million people. Some definitions also set a minimum level for population density (at least 2,000 persons/square Km). For example, in 1900, London was the largest city in the world with 6.4 million people. Tokyo is larger today (over 30 million people) than the ten largest cities in the world in 1900 (London, New York, Paris, Berlin, Chicago, Vienna, Tokyo, St. Petersburg, Manchester, Philadelphia). • Megatrend – is a large, social, economical, political, environmental or technological change that is slow to form. Once in place, Megatrends influence a wide range of activities, processes and perceptions, both in government and in society, possibly for decades. They are underlying forces that drive trends e.g., aging population, population growth, technology changes,…
  • 21. What are several Megatrends that will change everyone in this rooms life What are several Megatrends that will change everyone in this rooms life Demographic change Urbanization • Until 2030, 90% of the • Mid-2007, 50% of the world's population growth world population is living IT Technology will occur in cities in cities Technology • Digital Computing; Data • By 2015 80% of Storage; Telecom current - Metcalfe’s and technology is Moore’s Law (et outdated al) Growing demand for health- Increasing mobility and elder care • Traffic congestion on city • Urban air pollution causes streets in Western Europe an estimated 130,000 will increase 188% by 2010 premature deaths each – Transportation Systems year in developing become Intelligent countries Increasing scarcity of Growing demand for natural resources safety and security • Cities directly or indirectly Growing need for • Malfunctions of critical account for 60% of environmental care infrastructures pose high world's water use risks to urban economies: • Cities cause 80% of the in 2003, a 3-day power greenhouse gases, but outage in NY City caused they cover only 0.4% of loss of $1B the earth's surface
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  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. 핚국젂자거래짂흥원(원장 김춘석)은 5개 서비스 혁싞 싞사업 모델 개발사업 을 선정하고 시범사업을 추짂핚다고 15일 밝혔다. 이번에 선정된 서비스 혁싞 싞산업 모델 개발사업은 △매거짂 퍼블리싱 시스템(MPS) 서비스 모델 개발 △한국형 카세어링(Carsharing) 서비스 모델 개발 △온라인 소셜 네트워크에서의 사회적 중개 서비스 방법 개발 △디자인 공급소와 제조업체 연계를 통핚 제조 2.0 서비스 모델 개발 △젂통산업에서의 3차원 디지털 휴먼 네트워크를 이용핚 유비쿼터스 서비스 산업 모델 개발 등이다.
  • 30.  개발모델 개요 • Carsharing 서비스의 Positioning ① 자동차를 자가용 같이 사적으로 언제나 대여하여 사용 할 수 있는 서비스 ② 서비스에 대한 접근성 용이 ③ 서비스 사용을 위한 적절한 경제성 ④ 서비스 이용의 편리성 보장 ⑤ 차량관리의 편이성 및 신뢰성
  • 31. Before you go Get going On the move Returning the car Finding the car Joining Streetcar The Radio Extending a booking Unlocking & PIN Making a booking Refuelling Damage report Returning the car confirmation Cleaning Questions & Problem