Drivers, forest transitions and setting baselines at sub-national level
Redd alert linking global climate to local behavior
1. REDD-ALERT: Linking global climate
arrangements to local land-use behaviour
Robin Matthews
James Hutton Institute
Aberdeen AB15 8QH
UNFCCC COP-18, Doha, Qatar, 29 Nov 2012
2. Issue-attention cycle theory of Downs
1. Pre-problem phase, the problem exists but is not the subject of public discussion
2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm: The public is alarmed and constructively aims to deal with the problem thinking
that this is possible ‘without any fundamental reordering of society itself’ (Copenhagen)
3. Social actors become aware of the costs of dealing with the problem (currently)
4. Public attention declines as the problem is seen as too complex or expensive to address, or requiring major structural overhaul
of societies
5. Post problem - twilight realm of lesser attention or spasmodic recurrences of interest
(Downs, 1972)
3. Is the window of opportunity closing?
Forest-related emissions declining as % of total emissions : 20% 17%
10% due to increase in fossil fuel emissions
Cap-and-trade system in developed countries slow – no demand for credits
Hostage to vagaries of international finance and variations in commodity
prices (food)
Supply of credits from big players (e.g. Brazil) may swamp the market
Realisation of costs
Transaction costs high – 80-90% of total?
Use of ODA funds at expense of other devt objectives – also declining due to
recession – payments moving from definite to conditional
Seen as unfair – license for northern countries to continue to emit
Too complicated
4. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
World Bank Independent
Evaluation Group (IEG):
“REDD+ is a more
expensive, complex, and
protracted undertaking
than was anticipated at
the time of the FCPF’s
launch”
5. Drivers of the Forest Transition curve
Around 80% of
deforestation from
clearing for
agriculture
(Gupta et al., 2012)
6. Food demand
Global demand by
2050:
Calories: +100%
Protein: +110%
(Tilman et al., 2011, PNAS)
7. Competition between global land uses
Some countries have increased forest area
and food production – Costa Rica, El
Salvador, Bhutan, Vietnam
agricultural intensification
land use zoning
forest protection
creation of off-farm jobs
foreign capital investments
remittances
But - 39% of regrowth of Vietnam’s forests
through increasing food & wood imports
Factors influencing global land use change:
Displacement and cascade effects
Rebound effect
Remittance effect
Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011), PNAS 108:3465
8. Drivers and REDD+ instruments
Regulatory instruments
Trade restrictions
Protected areas
Reporting
Land rights
Economic and market instruments
Trade liberalisation
Funds, grants & loans
Forest C offsetting
Forest certification
Suasive instruments
Concepts & principles
Targets
Information and education
Research
9. Economy-wide modelling
Complex relationship between the
3Es (effectiveness, efficiency,
equity) not evident in more
aggregate analyses
Landowners benefit but local
subsistence demands would raise
their opportunity costs
Rent and wage changes create net
costs for most private stakeholders
REDD+ mechanisms should avoid
general formulas by giving local
authorities the necessary flexibility
to address the trade-offs involved
Dyer et al, 2012. PLoS (in press)
10. Encouraging behaviour change
van Vugt’s 4Is framework
Incentives (self-improvement)
Information (understanding)
Identity (belonging, pride, shame)
Institutions (trust)
Altruism index:
A = c + w*(t-c) + e*(1 – (c + w*(t-c)))
c = communication
e = equity
w = welfare
t = threat from environmental
damage
11. Systems thinking
Socio-ecological systems:
Livelihoods, recreation, health Agriculture
(arable,
Fluxes of carbon, water, grasslands)
nutrients, energy, labour &
capital
Organisation, governance,
conflict resolution
Resilience to change Communities
Forests Wetlands
Should REDD fund agricultural research and reduction in food chain
waste?: 34% more GHGs since 1961 if Green Revolution had not
occurred - cost around only $4/tCO2e (Burney et al, 2010)
Matthews & De Pinto, 2012. Carb. Mgt 3:117-120
12. Agricultural intensification
Borlaug hypothesis: agricultural
intensification relieves pressure on forests
Closed system – increased productivity
decreases prices, no clearing
Open system – increased income
incentivises further clearing
In/out-migration
Guinea rain forest - if fertiliser/ shade tree Pucallpa, Peru
intensification of cocoa adopted in 1960s
21,000 km2 less deforestation
1.4 billion tCO2 saved
Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011); Gockowski & Sonwa (2011)
13. What has REDD+ achieved so far?
Better understanding of the drivers of deforestation
Progress in methodologies
Baselines
Monitoring, reporting, verification
Emissions from tropical peatlands
Realisation that deforestation is a landscape problem –
need to deal with underlying drivers – NAMAs
It’s not all economics – range of solutions needed
Has created awareness of importance of forests – concept
of the ‘global forest’
14. A global forest transition?
Supply - shift production to more productive lands
Expanding the area of natural forests managed sustainably
Supporting natural regeneration through land zoning, forest
extraction regulations, and plantations on degraded land
Increasing production and productivity from tree plantations
Promoting agroforestry in areas unsuitable for large-scale intensive
farming
Sparing land for forests through agricultural intensification combined
with land zoning in high-potential agricultural areas
Demand
Create a demand for carbon credits in cap-and-trade systems
Ecoconsumerism
Corporate environmentalism