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NASA Research & Research Missions:  Addressing Space Weather Hazards Michael Hesse Chief, Space Weather Laboratory NASA GSFC 49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium - More than you imagine - March 31, 2011
Elements of Space Weather Forecasting ,[object Object]
Data/information
Models
DisseminationNASA plays key role in all aspects
SOHO (NASA/ESA) ,[object Object]
Prime solar observatory at L1,[object Object]
Instruments operating normally
Providing beacon data
At 2015 at opposite side of Sun,[object Object]
Solar Dynamics Observatory ,[object Object]
Geosynch orbit
Key research and space weather platform,[object Object]
Present Missions: ACE ,[object Object]
Prime Solar Wind information source
Almost full RT coverage,[object Object]
2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination
2 year nominal mission lifetime
The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.
Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s). ,[object Object]
Forecast model development at NASA NASA, together with partner agencies, such as NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, sponsors the development of models, which: ,[object Object]
Model solar eruptions
Predict their impacts
Predict space environment consequences,[object Object]
Research

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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards

  • 1. NASA Research & Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards Michael Hesse Chief, Space Weather Laboratory NASA GSFC 49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium - More than you imagine - March 31, 2011
  • 2.
  • 5. DisseminationNASA plays key role in all aspects
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Prime Solar Wind information source
  • 16.
  • 17. 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination
  • 18. 2 year nominal mission lifetime
  • 19. The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 24.
  • 27. Model testing and validation
  • 28. SWx forecasting for NASA’s robotic missions
  • 29. Other national needsSpace Weather Laboratory at GSFC http://swl.gsfc.nasa.gov
  • 30. CME Forecasting, April 3, 2010 Event STEREO-behind Available since 2006 CME detection SOHO Parameters used to start forecasting models STEREO-ahead
  • 31. April 3 CME model/forecast Expected impact: 13:30Z April 5
  • 32. Solar energetic particle forecasts Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (M. Nunez, U. Malaga) Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (A. Posner)
  • 33. RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM) GEO & GPS & Polar Observations Data Assimilation Model Modeled HEO Fluxes Measured HEO Fluxes R. Friedel/LANL
  • 35. Neutral Atmosphere Heating Rate Drag effects
  • 36. 19 Solar Shield:Protecting the Power Grid Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)
  • 37. Level 1 forecasts NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used. Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model tp provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory. 20 April 3, 2008
  • 38. NASA ACE Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model. Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC. 21 April 3, 2008
  • 39. Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool % Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1 % % The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . . % yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . . % 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53 2006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153 % Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2 % % The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . . % 0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53 2008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00 2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 22 Unique and innovative capability
  • 40. Innovative dissemination One-stop shop for state-of-the-art information > 200 SWx Tools Flexible to adapt to changing model (and data) environment User-configurable web-based system for analyzing space weather. Includes the most comprehensive list of SW data products and modeling results iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
  • 41.
  • 43.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. - GIC flow also in pipelines but the major interest is in GIC impacts on power grids.
  2. Disturbances propagate from the surface of the Sun to the Earth in about 1-2 days.
  3. Solar wind propagates from L1 (1.5 million km upstream) to Earth in about 30-60 min.