Impacts of Extreme Space Weather
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Thomas J. Bogdan, 2010 American Astronautical Society Goddard Memorial Symposium
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Impacts of Extreme Space Weather
- 1. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather 48 th Robert H Goddard Memorial Symposium March 10 , 2010 Thomas J Bogdan SWPC Director
- 2. “ SPACE TORNADOS” FLARES : photons, energetic ions “ SPACE HURRICANES” or “ SOLAR TSUNAMIS” CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS : plasma, magnetic field, energetic ions, energetic electrons “ SPACE WEATHER” SOLAR WIND : thermal plasma, energetic electrons THREE VARIETIES OF SPACE WEATHER
- 4. SWPC Product Subscription Service
- 6. Worst case scenario… “… blackouts could exceed even that of the very large blackout that occurred in August 14, 2003. And there is no part of the U.S. power grid that is immune to this… we could impact over 100 million population in the worst case scenario.” John Kappenman - before U.S. House Subcommittee on Environment, Technology & Standards Subcommittee Hearing on “What is Space Weather and Who Should Forecast It?” The grid is becoming increasingly vulnerable to space weather events Future Directions in Satellite-derived Weather and Climate Information for the Electric Energy Industry – Workshop Report Jun 2004 $1-2 Trillion | Source: National Academy Workshop on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events held in Washington, D.C., May 2008. Potential loss due to widespread power grid blackout following severe geomagnetic storm 4-10 Years | Recovery time from a widespread power grid blackout following severe geomagnetic storm
- 10. Summary Our global economy and national security depend on uninterrupted and reliable access to advanced technologies that are increasingly susceptible to the impacts of severe space weather. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is pursuing an aggressive partnership-based strategy to make numerical space weather prediction the cornerstone of our ambition to be the world’s trusted source for space weather alerts, watches and warnings.
- 11. SWPC’s Goal: Provide the right information… in the right format... at the right time… to the right people… to make the right decisions
Editor's Notes
- The National Space Weather Program was founded with the explicit goal of applying the newly developed knowledge of the space environment to help reduce the growing impact of space weather on societies’ advanced technologies. NASA, NSF, and DOD have expended tens of millions of dollars to develop models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun; many of these models are now mature and ready for transition to operations. However, at an estimated average cost greater than $1,000,000 per model, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has been unable to fund transitions of these critical models. Lack of resources constrains NOAA’s ability to deliver what customers want; the capability exists in the Space Weather Program, but not the capacity. SWPC unable to meet customer demands for regional specification and forecasts of space weather. The transition to operations of these models will be ongoing as new and improved models are developed in the research community. Some geospace models are already in place. Full physics based models will be introduced into SWPC beginning in 2012.
- From the government perspective , this is about bringing the benefits of technology to our citizens .