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Secular Shift From
Display to Search
         Dr. Augustine Fou
         http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
         May 24, 2012.
From Display to Search
         1996                     2000                     2004                     2008                      2011
     $267 million             $8.2 billion             $9.6 billion              $23 billion               $31 billion




  100% banner ads


                           40% display                 40% search               45% search               47% search
                           31% sponsorships            39% display              33% display              35% display
                           10% classifieds             18% other                14% other                17% other


  Source: IAB March 1997    Source: IAB April 2001   Source: IAB April 2005   Source: IAB March 2009   Source: IAB March 2009
    http://bit.ly/JKwCJ1     http://bit.ly/MA9FIh      http://bit.ly/LlB6zY     http://bit.ly/LuiZhD      http://bit.ly/JK2lIu

                                            crossover
May 24, 2012                                                                                                                     2
Ad Revenues by Pricing Model



               Source: IAB, PwC April 2011




May 24, 2012                                 3
Display to Search

May 24, 2012.       4
Display ad impressions…
                             Except
                             Facebook, which
                             is artificially
                             inflating
                             impressions by
                             serving up to 9
                             ads per pageview.

                             Source: go-digital
                             Blog, May
                             12, 2012




May 24, 2012
               … are headed downward.
                                                  5
If users can’t see the ads...
                   “about half are never in view”




                    “quality problem in long-tail content
                    sites”

      … no wonder click rates suck.
May 24, 2012                                                6
If users don’t look...
                                                   Source: Banner Blindness




 “The ads to the right are only noticed by 23%
 of the respondents, and they spend only half a
 second on the ads.” Source: Mashable 12/29/2011

  … even “branding” doesn’t happen.
May 24, 2012                                                                  7
Display ads on portals…
                            Portals were the
                            largest share of
                            display ads (e.g.
                            AOL and Yahoo)

                            They are among
                            the fastest-losing
                            areas of display ad
                            spending.




       … are dropping by double-digits.
May 24, 2012                                      8
Pay for impressions vs...
 Display Ads
 Pay for impressions




                            Search Ads
                            Pay for clicks


   … pay only for results (clicks).
May 24, 2012                                 9
Why is search so much better?

     Display Ads              Search Ads
       Ads next to content    Ads based on what the
       the user wants to      user is looking for
       read –                 (keyword) at the exact
       email, scores, news,   moment in time.
       content, etc.

April 13, 2012                                         10
Search is always better
                                            Search CTR: 0.19%
                                            Display CTR: 0.05%

                                            Search CTR: 0.25%
                                            Display CTR: 0.03%

                                            Search CTR: 0.13%
                                            Display CTR: 0.07%


                                            Search CTR: 0.24%
                                            Display CTR: 0.07%

               Source: Search versus Display | go-Digital Blog
May 24, 2012                                                     11
Company
Performance

May 24, 2012.   12
AOL - Financials




May 24, 2012.      13
YHOO - Financials




May 24, 2012.       14
Planned Spending
Changes

May 24, 2012.      15
Display ads shifting to …




                … social media sites
May 24, 2012.                      16
So What?
      “Smart advertisers are shifting away from
      display ads which are paid on an
      impression basis to other forms of online
      ads such as search and social, for better
      measurability and return. Look at your
      entire mix and determine what mix is
      optimal for your business and industry.”
                              - Dr. Augustine Fou
May 24, 2012                                        17
Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist
   “I advise clients on shifting their
   marketing mix among traditional
   and digital tactics, and unifying
   them to work optimally together.”

   FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
   MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
   CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
   PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
   ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
   PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23

    ClickZ Articles: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou
    LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou



May 24, 2012                                                                     18
                                                              acfou@mktsci.com
APPENDIX

May 24, 2012.   19
AOL




May 24, 2012.   20
Relative CPM – industry




May 24, 2012.             21
Relative CTR – industry




May 24, 2012.             22

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Secular Decline Shift Away from Display Advertising

  • 1. Secular Shift From Display to Search Dr. Augustine Fou http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou May 24, 2012.
  • 2. From Display to Search 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 $267 million $8.2 billion $9.6 billion $23 billion $31 billion 100% banner ads 40% display 40% search 45% search 47% search 31% sponsorships 39% display 33% display 35% display 10% classifieds 18% other 14% other 17% other Source: IAB March 1997 Source: IAB April 2001 Source: IAB April 2005 Source: IAB March 2009 Source: IAB March 2009 http://bit.ly/JKwCJ1 http://bit.ly/MA9FIh http://bit.ly/LlB6zY http://bit.ly/LuiZhD http://bit.ly/JK2lIu crossover May 24, 2012 2
  • 3. Ad Revenues by Pricing Model Source: IAB, PwC April 2011 May 24, 2012 3
  • 4. Display to Search May 24, 2012. 4
  • 5. Display ad impressions… Except Facebook, which is artificially inflating impressions by serving up to 9 ads per pageview. Source: go-digital Blog, May 12, 2012 May 24, 2012 … are headed downward. 5
  • 6. If users can’t see the ads... “about half are never in view” “quality problem in long-tail content sites” … no wonder click rates suck. May 24, 2012 6
  • 7. If users don’t look... Source: Banner Blindness “The ads to the right are only noticed by 23% of the respondents, and they spend only half a second on the ads.” Source: Mashable 12/29/2011 … even “branding” doesn’t happen. May 24, 2012 7
  • 8. Display ads on portals… Portals were the largest share of display ads (e.g. AOL and Yahoo) They are among the fastest-losing areas of display ad spending. … are dropping by double-digits. May 24, 2012 8
  • 9. Pay for impressions vs... Display Ads Pay for impressions Search Ads Pay for clicks … pay only for results (clicks). May 24, 2012 9
  • 10. Why is search so much better? Display Ads Search Ads Ads next to content Ads based on what the the user wants to user is looking for read – (keyword) at the exact email, scores, news, moment in time. content, etc. April 13, 2012 10
  • 11. Search is always better Search CTR: 0.19% Display CTR: 0.05% Search CTR: 0.25% Display CTR: 0.03% Search CTR: 0.13% Display CTR: 0.07% Search CTR: 0.24% Display CTR: 0.07% Source: Search versus Display | go-Digital Blog May 24, 2012 11
  • 13. AOL - Financials May 24, 2012. 13
  • 14. YHOO - Financials May 24, 2012. 14
  • 16. Display ads shifting to … … social media sites May 24, 2012. 16
  • 17. So What? “Smart advertisers are shifting away from display ads which are paid on an impression basis to other forms of online ads such as search and social, for better measurability and return. Look at your entire mix and determine what mix is optimal for your business and industry.” - Dr. Augustine Fou May 24, 2012 17
  • 18. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist “I advise clients on shifting their marketing mix among traditional and digital tactics, and unifying them to work optimally together.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou May 24, 2012 18 acfou@mktsci.com
  • 21. Relative CPM – industry May 24, 2012. 21
  • 22. Relative CTR – industry May 24, 2012. 22