1. The Evolving National Security
Role of the Vice President
Prospectus Defense
Aaron Mannes
December 14, 2011
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2. From Throttlebottom to Angler
• Once there were two brothers: one ran away to sea, the other was elected
Vice-President – and nothing was ever heard from either of them again –
Thomas Marshall (VP to Woodrow Wilson)
• …the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably had in American
history – Joe Biden describing his predecessor
In just a few decades the vice presidency has shifted from obscurity to
centrality, from being an inconsequential position, a “Constitutional
appendage” to being a power center within the White House
What Changed?
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3. Key Questions
• Why has the vice presidency become a source
of influence?
• Why have presidents been increasingly willing
to follow the advice of the vice president?
Influence, is defined by Paul Light as “an
adviser’s ability to change outcomes from what
they would have been.”
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4. Overview: Three Theories
There are three approaches, each with several hypotheses, that
may explain the growth in vice presidential influence:
1) Demands of the modern presidency have created incentives
for presidents to give their vice presidents expanded roles
2) The growth of the institutional vice presidency has given the
vice president resources to play a greater role
3) Rise of the outsider presidency has brought people with
little Washington experience to the presidency and they
have selected their running mates as partners who can help
fill these gaps

5. The Modern Presidency
• From Leader to Clerk
• Since FDR, responsibilities and powers of the
president have expanded dramatically
• The following two hypotheses examine the
institutional changes to the presidency that have
created new incentives for presidents to give an
expanded role to their vice presidents
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6. H1A: When the president is able to select his vice
president, the vice president is more likely to
exercise influence
• In the most early cases, running mates were chosen at the
convention by the party faction that lost the nomination
• Presidents had little incentive to cooperate with the vice
president who was a former rival
• Under FDR, the president obtained control of the selection
process
• Possible Proof: Compare the set of influential VPs with the set
of VPs selected by the party nominee
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7. H1B: As the demands on the president have
increased, the vice president will have greater
opportunities to exercise influence.
• Since the 1930s, the expectations of presidential involvement
in national and international affairs has expanded dramatically
• Increased demands on the president created incentives for
the president to give the vice president a greater role
• Possible Proof: Compare the set of influential VPs with the
changes in indicators of expansion of presidential
responsibility
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8. The Institutional Vice Presidency
• In the past 60 years, the vice presidency has acquired several
institutional attributes, including a seat on the NSC and personal
staff
• Since the 1970s, the vice presidency has gained semi-
institutionalized attributes including a West Wing office, regular
meetings with the president, and access to the policy process
• Vice presidents have adopted a set of behaviors and strategies to
maximize their influence
• The following four hypotheses test the importance of the growth of
the institutional vice presidency on vice presidential influence
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9. H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff are
better able to exercise influence.
• In the 1970s, vice presidents were granted substantial
personal staff
• Staff allowed the vice president to develop areas of expertise
and use surrogates for influence
• Possible Proofs:
- Compare the set of influential VPs with VPs who had
substantial staff
- Examine the role of vice presidential staff in cases of vice
presidential influence
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10. H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the West
Wing are better able to exercise influence.
• Nothing propinks like propinquity
• Since Mondale, vice presidents have had offices in the West
Wing, giving the vice president a presence in the heart of the
informal aspects of the policy process
• Possible Proofs:
- Compare the set of influential VPs with the VPs who had
West Wing offices
- Examine cases of vice presidential influence to determine if
and how the VP’s West Wing office played a role
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11. H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to the
President, and with access to White House meetings
and paper-flow for themselves and their staff are
better able to exercise influence.
• As a condition of accepting the vice presidency, Walter Mondale
insisted on access to White House meetings and paper-flow for
himself and his staff
• This has continued with vice presidents since and allows the vice
president to follow the policy process and be present or
represented at meetings
• Possible Proofs:
– Compare the set of influential VPs with the VPs who had access to White
House meetings and paper-flow
– Examine specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if access
to the president, meetings, and paper-flow was a factor
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12. H2D: Vice presidents who foster allies on the
president’s staff, exercise “hidden hand”
influence, and avoid publicity for their policy
preferences are better able to exercise influence.
• After consulting his predecessors, vice president Mondale
adopted a set of strategies for influence
• Mondale’s successors have continued to employ these
strategies
• Possible Proof: Study specific cases of vice presidential
influence to determine what means the vice president used to
advance his preferred policy positions
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13. Insider/Outsider
• Since the mid-1970s, voters have shown a preference
for “outsider” presidential candidates with little or
no Washington experience
• Outsider candidates are more likely to view the vice
president as a governing partner
• The following three hypotheses examine the
relationship between outsider presidents and
influential vice presidents
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14. H3A: Outsider presidents are more likely to
select running mates for personal and political
compatibility, increasing the likelihood that the
President will include the VP as a top advisor.
• At the heart of vice presidential influence is the president’s
willingness to listen
• Outsider presidents are more likely to consider their vice
president as a partner
• Possible Proofs:
– Examine pre-selection relationships between candidates and their
running mates and
– Examine the vice presidential selection process
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15. H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to be
inexperienced in areas such as national security affairs
and not have strong national security teams, thus
creating opportunities for vice presidential influence.
• Presidents inexperienced in foreign policy may have difficulty establishing
an organizational framework that serves their needs
• This situation can create policy vacuums that an experienced VP can fill
• Possible Proofs:
– Examine a president’s previous relationships with his national security team
– Compare the set of influential vice presidents with the presidents who had
strong and weak national security teams
– Study specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if they
occurred in areas where the president’s national security team had difficulty
formulating policy
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16. H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seek
their vice presidents’ input in the appointments
process, which increases the VP’s opportunities for
influence.
• Outsider presidents are more likely to include the vice president in
the transition process
• By helping to select appointees, the vice president can establish
lines of confidence throughout the bureaucracy that can help the
vice president achieve influence through the bureaucracy
• Possible Proofs:
– Compare the set of influential vice presidents with the vice
presidential role in the transition and appointment process
– Examine specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if
lines of confidence in the bureaucracy was a factor
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17. Methodology I: Case Studies
• Case studies on vice presidents who were:
– Influential
– Active but not influential
– Uninfluential (lost access to the policy process)
• These overviews will discuss the VP’s role in the NSC system,
access to the president and White House, and general
discussions of vice presidential influence
• There will also be focused case studies on specific instances of
vice presidential influence to tease out the elements
contributing to vice presidential influence
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18. Methodology II: Process Tracing
• Causation is not correlation
• Process tracing (according to Bennet and George):
“…attempts to identify the intervening causal process - the
causal chain and causal mechanism - between an
independent variable (or variables) and the outcome of
the dependent variable.”
• The object is to identify how the presence or
absence of specific elements played a role in cases of
successful and failed vice presidential influence in
order to test the hypotheses
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19.
Potential Case Studies
Vice President Successful Influence Unsuccessful Influence
Uninfluential Vice President
Wallace Bureau of Economic Warfare
Humphrey Bombing North Vietnam
Agnew Mars Mission
Rockefeller Energy Initiative CIA Commission
Substantial Vice President
Hobart
Nixon Invading Cuba
Defense spending increases
GHW Bush Counter‐Terror Task Force Supporting Solidarity
Quayle Missile Defense Space Council
Influential Vice President
Van Buren French Reparations Bank of the United States
Mondale Carrier veto Grain embargo
Vietnam Refugees Moderating Brzezinski’s role as NSA
Assistance to China
Gore Balancing Russian Reform Environment Intelligence Center
Renditions
Cheney Gitmo & Military Tribunals Bombing Iran
Biden Afghan troop surge
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