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SB1070 Doesn’t Work
The Impacts of State-level Immigration Laws

Todd Landfried
Executive Director
Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform




                                              1
“The greatest threat to democracy
is having a public that thinks it is
fully informed, but really isn’t very
well informed at all.”
                                 Linda Foley




                                               2
Arizona v. United States
             “Arizona bears the brunt of the country’s illegal
             immigration problem. Its citizens feel themselves
             under siege by large numbers of illegal
             immigrants who invade their property, strain
             their social services and even place their lives in
             jeopardy.”
                                                                                          Justice Scalia
                                                                                       Dissenting Opinion



Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 22 (2012) (Scalia, J. dissenting).    3
Arizona v. United States
             “...these aliens are reported to be responsible for a
             disproportionate share of serious crime.”

             “Accounts in the record suggest there is an ‘epidemic of
             crime, safety risks, serious property damage, and
             environmental problems’ associated with the influx of illegal
             migration across private land near the Mexican border.”
                                                                                  Justice Kennedy
                                                                                    Majority Opinion




Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012).                        4
Arizona v. United States

             “The problems posed to the State by illegal
             immigration must not be underestimated.”
                                                                                  Justice Kennedy
                                                                                    Majority Opinion

                Unfortunately, they are being overestimated!


Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012).                        5
“A salient characteristic of the
current debate on U.S.
immigration policy is the high
ratio of hot air to data.”
                           Dr. Douglas Massey
                Co-director, Mexican Migration Project
                                  Princeton University
                              mmp.opr.princeton.edu



                                                         6
Economic Fallacies
                   Claim       Reality   Difference

 Education Costs   $810M       $379M      +214%


  Health Costs     $400M        $24M      +1,600%


  Tax Payments     $257M       $2.84B     -1,100%




                           7
Crime Fallacies
                                    Claim              Reality   Difference

     % in Federal Prison              35%               17.5%     +200%

      % in AZ Prisons*                33%               13.2%     +250%

         Hate Crime
                               Not a problem            +68%      +6,800%
       Increase ‘07-’10

        Identity Theft               100%               0.9%      -99.1%




* Includes green card and undocumented prisoners

                                                   8
Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12   9
PolitiFact Immigration Checks
       Pants On                            Mostly                    Mostly
                          FALSE                          Half True            TRUE
         Fire                              False                      True
             19              56               33               41      31      23

           9.4%            27.6%           16.3%             20.25   15.3%    11.3%

                                      Wrong 88.7%                             11.3%




Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203                    10
9 out of 10

Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203   11
g
           9 out on10
                 of
             W r
Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203   11
AZ FactCheck: Immigration
                             Mostly         Somewhat False
         FALSE                              Somewhat True       Mostly True          TRUE
                             False
             29                  4                   8                   4            4

          59.2%               8.2%               16.3%                8.2%           8.2%

                                  Wrong 91.8%                                        8.2%




Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 7/08/12. N = 49          12
9 out of 10

Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49   13
g
         9 out on10
               of
           W r
Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49   13
How’s This Working Out?
 U.S. history is replete with examples of bad immigration law:

    Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, The Gentleman’s Agreement of 1907, The
    Immigration Act of 1924, and Bracero Program of 1942

 Prior to SB 1070 “Attrition Through Enforcement” was tried:

    Cities: Farmer’s Branch, TX, Freemont, NE and Hazelton, PA

    Counties: Prince William County, VA

    States: Arizona and Oklahoma




                                                                            14
A Local Record of Failure
                Prince William County, VA (2007) - $14.9M to train & enforce
                county officers, increase property tax rate by $0.15/$1,000;
                foreclosure rate 3X regional rate; business closures up 45%

                Farmer’s Branch, TX (2007) - $3.2M for lawyers, $5M in settlement
                fees, $623,000 in legal set-asides, increased vacancy rates, lower
                property values, business reputation damaged, divided community

                Hazelton, PA (2007) - $1M for lawyers, $2.4M in settlement fees,
                increased foreclosure and vacancy rates, businesses closed,
                divided community



Source: Dallas Morning News, April 9, 2010. Hazelton Standard Speaker, Nov. 7, 2010
A State Record of Failure
                Oklahoma Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act (2007) - Oklahoma
                Bankers Association study found the loss of 90,000 unauthorized
                workers/families resulted in net Gross State Product loss of $1.9B

                   Urban Institute found negligible impact on savings on public services
                   from departure of the undocumented because by law they’re ineligible
                   for those benefits in the first place

              Despite having examples of universal failure at every level of
              government, Arizona passed SB 1070 anyway




Source: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007
A Continued Record of Failure
                “Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act” -
                SB1070 (2010)

                   $5M+ to train law enforcement

                   $186M in near-term convention and related tourism losses

                   $40.7M loss in state tax revenues

                   $3M+ to defend SB1070 in court, losing on 3/4 of the challenges and
                   it’s not over




Source: CAP “Rising Tide or Shrinking Pie” 2011 and Arizona Republic June 21, 2012
SB1070 Economics
         Immigrant Pop.                Gross State                                                              Tax Revenue
                                                                Income Loss                    Job Loss
            Decline                   Product Loss                                                                  Loss

                  15%                       $8.3B                      $5.3B                     99,000           $636M

                  30%                      $14.4B                      $9.4B                    172,000           $1.27B

                  50%                       $20B                      $15.7B                    291,000           $2.11B

                 100%                      $48.8B                     $29.5B                    581,000           $4.22B




Source: "A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie," M. Fitz and R. Hinojosa, Immigration Policy Council, March, 2011.


                                                                          18
Sound Good?
✓Shrinking workforce
✓Significant population loss
✓Fewer consumers
✓Business layoffs & closures
✓Broad tax base decline
✓Foreclosures up, values down
✓Damage to business climate
✓Loss of investment interest
They Did It
Anyway
Alabama
Indiana
Georgia
South Carolina
Utah
Georgia’s HB 87
 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Deal signed it on May 12, 2011

 Georgia felt the impact within days

  Farmers lost field workers during prime spring harvest season and the
  state’s Farm Bureau projected immediate losses at $330M

  Gov. Deal called for impact study 14 days AFTER the law was passed

  “Pilot” probationer employment program for agriculture failed
  miserably: needed 11,000 and 14 showed up and seven remained a
  week later
GA Governor: Use Prison Labor
How many support giving prison laborers this knife?




                          12”
Alabama’s HB 56
 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Bentley signed it on June 9, 2011

 Alabama felt the impact within days

  Construction industry stalled as workers leave, slowing down
  rebuilding process following spring tornado storms

  Long-term growers of crops that are hand-picked are switching to
  crops that can be mechanized

  Recent study show community tax receipts are down so low in
  agricultural communities, they are considering cutting services
Quiz
 Doing the same thing over and over and
 expecting a different result is the definition of...



           INSANITY
Spreading The Truth
             “What is more, the supposed benefits of S.B. 1070 are illusory and
             do not outweigh its burdens. Arizona claims it enacted S.B. 1070
             to address the severe fiscal and economic effects of unauthorized
             immigrants—specifically, the rising costs of incarceration,
             education, and health care. But Arizona’s contentions lack
             empirical support. To the contrary, unauthorized immigrants
             provide a net benefit to state economies.”

                                                                                 AZEIR Amicus Brief




Source: Brief of Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform,. et. al. As Amici Curiae In Support of Respondent,
No. 11-182, Supreme Ct. Of the US. 25 April 2012.                                                               25
Facts + Engagement = Wins
 Building coalitions of business, faith, legal and community organizations
 can educate the public and defeat SB1070-style bills

  Kansas - SB1070 copycat bills DEFEATED TWICE

  Mississippi - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED

  Missouri - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED

  Rhode Island - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED

  Texas - 108 immigration bills DEFEATED

  West Virginia - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
What You Must Do
 These laws have never worked anywhere - Tell people!

 Challenge every statement - 9 times out of 10 it’s wrong

 Hold public forums to discuss facts and present alternatives

 Challenge “rule of law” assumption that current laws are “good”

  Business, faith, legal, and community leaders must speak out together

 Start demanding state and federal candidates have solutions and
 demand specific timelines for action
Thank You
Todd Landfried
Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform
Email: todd@azeir.org

www.azeir.org

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NCLR Economics of SB1070 Presentation

  • 1. SB1070 Doesn’t Work The Impacts of State-level Immigration Laws Todd Landfried Executive Director Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform 1
  • 2. “The greatest threat to democracy is having a public that thinks it is fully informed, but really isn’t very well informed at all.” Linda Foley 2
  • 3. Arizona v. United States “Arizona bears the brunt of the country’s illegal immigration problem. Its citizens feel themselves under siege by large numbers of illegal immigrants who invade their property, strain their social services and even place their lives in jeopardy.” Justice Scalia Dissenting Opinion Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 22 (2012) (Scalia, J. dissenting). 3
  • 4. Arizona v. United States “...these aliens are reported to be responsible for a disproportionate share of serious crime.” “Accounts in the record suggest there is an ‘epidemic of crime, safety risks, serious property damage, and environmental problems’ associated with the influx of illegal migration across private land near the Mexican border.” Justice Kennedy Majority Opinion Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 4
  • 5. Arizona v. United States “The problems posed to the State by illegal immigration must not be underestimated.” Justice Kennedy Majority Opinion Unfortunately, they are being overestimated! Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 5
  • 6. “A salient characteristic of the current debate on U.S. immigration policy is the high ratio of hot air to data.” Dr. Douglas Massey Co-director, Mexican Migration Project Princeton University mmp.opr.princeton.edu 6
  • 7. Economic Fallacies Claim Reality Difference Education Costs $810M $379M +214% Health Costs $400M $24M +1,600% Tax Payments $257M $2.84B -1,100% 7
  • 8. Crime Fallacies Claim Reality Difference % in Federal Prison 35% 17.5% +200% % in AZ Prisons* 33% 13.2% +250% Hate Crime Not a problem +68% +6,800% Increase ‘07-’10 Identity Theft 100% 0.9% -99.1% * Includes green card and undocumented prisoners 8
  • 9. Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12 9
  • 10. PolitiFact Immigration Checks Pants On Mostly Mostly FALSE Half True TRUE Fire False True 19 56 33 41 31 23 9.4% 27.6% 16.3% 20.25 15.3% 11.3% Wrong 88.7% 11.3% Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 10
  • 11. 9 out of 10 Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 11
  • 12. g 9 out on10 of W r Source: PolitiFact.com immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 11
  • 13. AZ FactCheck: Immigration Mostly Somewhat False FALSE Somewhat True Mostly True TRUE False 29 4 8 4 4 59.2% 8.2% 16.3% 8.2% 8.2% Wrong 91.8% 8.2% Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 7/08/12. N = 49 12
  • 14. 9 out of 10 Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
  • 15. g 9 out on10 of W r Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
  • 16. How’s This Working Out? U.S. history is replete with examples of bad immigration law: Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, The Gentleman’s Agreement of 1907, The Immigration Act of 1924, and Bracero Program of 1942 Prior to SB 1070 “Attrition Through Enforcement” was tried: Cities: Farmer’s Branch, TX, Freemont, NE and Hazelton, PA Counties: Prince William County, VA States: Arizona and Oklahoma 14
  • 17. A Local Record of Failure Prince William County, VA (2007) - $14.9M to train & enforce county officers, increase property tax rate by $0.15/$1,000; foreclosure rate 3X regional rate; business closures up 45% Farmer’s Branch, TX (2007) - $3.2M for lawyers, $5M in settlement fees, $623,000 in legal set-asides, increased vacancy rates, lower property values, business reputation damaged, divided community Hazelton, PA (2007) - $1M for lawyers, $2.4M in settlement fees, increased foreclosure and vacancy rates, businesses closed, divided community Source: Dallas Morning News, April 9, 2010. Hazelton Standard Speaker, Nov. 7, 2010
  • 18. A State Record of Failure Oklahoma Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act (2007) - Oklahoma Bankers Association study found the loss of 90,000 unauthorized workers/families resulted in net Gross State Product loss of $1.9B Urban Institute found negligible impact on savings on public services from departure of the undocumented because by law they’re ineligible for those benefits in the first place Despite having examples of universal failure at every level of government, Arizona passed SB 1070 anyway Source: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007
  • 19. A Continued Record of Failure “Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act” - SB1070 (2010) $5M+ to train law enforcement $186M in near-term convention and related tourism losses $40.7M loss in state tax revenues $3M+ to defend SB1070 in court, losing on 3/4 of the challenges and it’s not over Source: CAP “Rising Tide or Shrinking Pie” 2011 and Arizona Republic June 21, 2012
  • 20. SB1070 Economics Immigrant Pop. Gross State Tax Revenue Income Loss Job Loss Decline Product Loss Loss 15% $8.3B $5.3B 99,000 $636M 30% $14.4B $9.4B 172,000 $1.27B 50% $20B $15.7B 291,000 $2.11B 100% $48.8B $29.5B 581,000 $4.22B Source: "A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie," M. Fitz and R. Hinojosa, Immigration Policy Council, March, 2011. 18
  • 21. Sound Good? ✓Shrinking workforce ✓Significant population loss ✓Fewer consumers ✓Business layoffs & closures ✓Broad tax base decline ✓Foreclosures up, values down ✓Damage to business climate ✓Loss of investment interest
  • 23. Georgia’s HB 87 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Deal signed it on May 12, 2011 Georgia felt the impact within days Farmers lost field workers during prime spring harvest season and the state’s Farm Bureau projected immediate losses at $330M Gov. Deal called for impact study 14 days AFTER the law was passed “Pilot” probationer employment program for agriculture failed miserably: needed 11,000 and 14 showed up and seven remained a week later
  • 24. GA Governor: Use Prison Labor How many support giving prison laborers this knife? 12”
  • 25. Alabama’s HB 56 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Bentley signed it on June 9, 2011 Alabama felt the impact within days Construction industry stalled as workers leave, slowing down rebuilding process following spring tornado storms Long-term growers of crops that are hand-picked are switching to crops that can be mechanized Recent study show community tax receipts are down so low in agricultural communities, they are considering cutting services
  • 26. Quiz Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of... INSANITY
  • 27. Spreading The Truth “What is more, the supposed benefits of S.B. 1070 are illusory and do not outweigh its burdens. Arizona claims it enacted S.B. 1070 to address the severe fiscal and economic effects of unauthorized immigrants—specifically, the rising costs of incarceration, education, and health care. But Arizona’s contentions lack empirical support. To the contrary, unauthorized immigrants provide a net benefit to state economies.” AZEIR Amicus Brief Source: Brief of Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform,. et. al. As Amici Curiae In Support of Respondent, No. 11-182, Supreme Ct. Of the US. 25 April 2012. 25
  • 28. Facts + Engagement = Wins Building coalitions of business, faith, legal and community organizations can educate the public and defeat SB1070-style bills Kansas - SB1070 copycat bills DEFEATED TWICE Mississippi - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Missouri - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Rhode Island - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Texas - 108 immigration bills DEFEATED West Virginia - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
  • 29. What You Must Do These laws have never worked anywhere - Tell people! Challenge every statement - 9 times out of 10 it’s wrong Hold public forums to discuss facts and present alternatives Challenge “rule of law” assumption that current laws are “good” Business, faith, legal, and community leaders must speak out together Start demanding state and federal candidates have solutions and demand specific timelines for action
  • 30. Thank You Todd Landfried Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform Email: todd@azeir.org www.azeir.org

Notes de l'éditeur

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  2. The greatest threat to Democracy is having a public that thinks it is fully informed, but really isn’t very well informed at all. Too often in this digital age, we jump right to the debate without having the facts. We need good, quality journalism so we the citizens of the United States, who live in a very complex world are able to say “These are the facts. I know what the facts are and I’m going to make my decision as an informed citizen.”\n\nThree things you need to know about this presentation\nParty and ideology have nothing to do with this presentation. It’s only intent is to present facts. \nIt’s purpose is to challenge false beliefs and preconceived notions.\nThe information presented herein are based on verifiable public data obtained from recognized sources with sources listed at the bottom of each slide.\n
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  7. EXAMPLE #4: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nThis table highlights some of the more egregious falsehoods told on a daily basis about immigrants in Arizona. The data for Texas is similar, but all highlight the problems of rhetoric of "hot air."\n\nPrison population data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nEducation costs data: Estimates based on larger estimate of http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2010.pdf or http://www.migrationinformation.org/DataHub/charts/MPIDataHub-Children-in-immigrant-families.xls (12.2% or 61,507 undocumented population <=17 yrs x $6,170 = $379,498,190)\nHealth care costs data: Illegal Immigration: Perceptions and Realities, ASU Morrison Inst.\nTax Payments data: “A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie,” CAP, http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/special-reports/rising-tide-or-shrinking-pie \n\n\n
  8. EXAMPLE #4 continued: How exaggerating data distorts public perceptions of the problem.\n\nCrime statistics claims don’t match up with reality.\n\nFederal Prison data: http://www.bop.gov/news/quick.jsp#2 \nAZ Prison data: http://www.azcorrections.gov/adc/reports/Zoya_ethnic.aspx\nViolent crime data: http://www.azdps.gov/About/Reports/Crime_In_Arizona/\nHate crime data: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr#hate\nID Theft data: http://www.adc.state.az.us/BudgetHearings2012.pdf\n
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  10. Does anyone watch lawyer shows on TV? What do they say in the courtroom when they swear someone in as a witness? They swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The DON’T swear to tell the truth, most of the truth or half of the truth.\n
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  15. Farmer’s Branch - http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/carrollton-farmers-branch/headlines/20100409-Farmers-Branch-legal-costs-rise-in-2968.ece\n\nHazelton: http://standardspeaker.com/news/city-loses-appeal-on-who-pays-plaintiffs-1.1060539\n\n\n
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  17. http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/2012/06/21/20120621sb1070-legal-defense-private-funds.html\n
  18. SB1070 has had a brutal impact on Arizona’s economy already, but what would happen if all aspects of SB1070 were passed into law? \n\nSuffice it to say, the economic and jobs damage would be enormous. If SB1070 is fully implemented, the impacts on Arizona’s economy would be worse than during the last recession by doubling the numbers of lost jobs (275,000 to 581,000) and reducing Gross State Product by $48.8B and tax revenues by $4.2B. \n\nThere has to be a better way and there are better ways. What’s important is that you hear about them.\n\nSource: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/rising_tide.html \n
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