2. The tools that economists use
• Much of an economists’ work is looking at
data sets
• There is a growing amount of good data in a
modern, complex society although austerity
means that governments may want to cut this
down – for example the next 2021 census
• Some data sets get considerable press
coverage and thus have an effect on our
economic behaviour
• We will introduce you to one of these – the
figures for unemployment in the UK
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3. Video Summary: Latest on the Labour Market, September
2012
Part of Labour Market Statistics, September 2012 Release
Released: 12 September 2012
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4. . This short video shows that:
Unemployment for everyone aged 16 and over for May to July 2012 was 2.59
million, down 7,000 on the previous three months. Employment for the same
age group was 29.56 million, up 236,000 on the previous three months.
Public sector employment was 5.66 million in June 2012 and private sector
employment 23.90 million. Public sector employment was down 235,000 and
private sector employment up 471,000 between March and June 2012.
The three month change in public and private sector employment was affected
by the reclassification of some educational bodies from the public sector to the
private sector. Excluding the reclassification, public sector employment was
down 39,000 and private sector employment up 275,000 between March and
June 2012.
Finally it looks at total and average hours. It shows that over the past twenty
years average full-time hours have fallen and average part-time hours have
increased.
Source: Office for National Statistics
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5. Key points from the September 2012 Press Release
The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for May
to July 2012 was 71.2 per cent, up 0.5 on the quarter. There
were 29.56 million people in employment aged 16 and over,
up 236,000 on the quarter.
The unemployment rate for May to July 2012 was 8.1 per
cent of the economically active population, down 0.1 on the
quarter. There were 2.59 million unemployed people, down
7,000 on the quarter.
The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for May to
July 2012 was 22.4 per cent, down 0.5 on the quarter. There
were 9.01 million economically inactive people aged from 16
to 64, down 181,000 on the quarter.
Between May to July 2011 and May to July 2012, total pay
(including bonuses) rose by 1.5 per cent and regular pay
(excluding bonuses) rose by 1.9 per cent.
In this release
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6. We should always ask
What exactly is in this data set?
For example unemployment figures represent the number of people who are
out of work but are actively looking for and are available to start work within
a fortnight
It is based on surveys done by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) which
makes three monthly averages
If you work for as little as one hour a week you are employed, the same goes
if you are on a government training scheme or on holiday
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7. A second set of unemployment figures
This is the claimant count, that is people who get Jobseeker’s
Allowance. It comes from the Department of Work and
Pensions (DWP). You are entitled to six months worth after
you lose your job depending on your past National Insurance
contributions, after that it is means tested but even if you get
no money, if you sign on, you are a claimant.
It is lower than the ONS unemployment figures because there
are many people who are out of work and seeking work who
don’t sign on. This is very true now that we have so many dual
income couples, if one is still in work, the family will get little
in the way of benefits so they don’t bother to sign on.
In some more affluent areas, it has become a sign of weakness
to sign on if your finances are good enough not to need
benefits. This in turn means that those who need benefits are
more likely to be stigmatised.
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8. A second set of unemployment figures
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9. Data is limited by
The cost of getting data – this can be considerable
Whether it measures what you are interested in. Much
data on graduate employment has been based on surveys done a few
months after graduation. Many who will get good employment are still
searching and taking student type work
You want to make comparisons over time and compare like with
like but where there are major social changes, this can be distorting
You want to make international comparisons
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11. Economically inactive people have
not been looking for work or are
not ready to start work in the next
fortnight. It includes retired people,
those looking after a family or
home, those who are ill or
disabled, students and those who
choose not to work
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14. HOMEWORK
Start a record of the monthly data on unemployment – this appears in
the middle of the month
Why do we have unemployment? If you don’t have much economic
knowledge at this stage, all the better. Maybe when you have studied
more economics, you will have a different view. Or you may not.
Look in more detail at some aspect of the data on unemployment or
activity rates that interests you. It could be differences between male
and female unemployment, public sector versus private
companies, different regions of the country, youth or racial or ethnic
groups.
Can you see any major changes in the data? What might they be and
what might they mean?
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