4. What will the future look like?
― The future has already happened,
it is just unequally distributed.‖
- William Gibson
ITSI
Copyright@2010
5. The Relationship Between Strategy and Scenarios
The hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of
a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising
Internal Analysis & externalScenario Thinking Business Model
both internal and experts.
Hypothesis Generation Design
What Could be
What is What Should be
ITSI
Copyright@2010
6. In the next decade …
95% of video and DVD stores will close down
You will have your own TV channel
Augmented Reality will redefine how you see the
world
TV stations will carry personalised
advertisements
Your current cellular number will stop being the
primary identifier in your life
You will finally be able to see the world from a
celebrity's point of view
ITSI
Copyright@2010
9. The primary forces
Bandwidth
- will double every 9 months
This revolution will mean very
low-cost
high-bandwidth
communication
ITSI
Copyright@2010
10. More information can today be sent over a single
cable in a second than was sent over the entire
Internet in 2004 in a month.
Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport.
This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer,
exceeds previous records such as one achieved in
May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer
(Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
11. How was it done?
155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km
fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each
wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give
the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per
second.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
12. The primary forces
Storewidth is doubling
every 12 months.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
13. Storewidth
"The consumer will have a
5 or 6-terabyte drive by
2009, and will be able to
store
25-50,000 CDs
—which is all the music on
all the labels!
That's when we officially
reach the point of lunacy!―
- Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com
ITSI
Copyright@2010
17. Industry Trendsin the Ubiquitous Internet
Coming Network Society Emerging Cloud Computing
1B+new mobile subscribers TrillionUS$ Internet application
mainly in Emerging Markets market
The
Totally up to Converged value chain: Telecom,
5B+subscribers
Building blocks Internet, Software, Media,
Electronics
Ubiquitous Broadband
Of the
Exploding Digital Space
300Mnew fixed line BB CyberSphere Thousand Exabyte (1018) digital
subscribers, totally up to
600M info
1.2Bnew mobile BB 10times traffic increase, up to
subscribers, totally up to 50%-80%annual growth
1.4B
5,000,000,000 subscribers
ITSI
Copyright@2010
20. A new era of wireless connectivity
3.5 – 3.7 GHz WiMax
2.5 – 2.7 GHz WiMax / LTE
2.4 GHz WiFi
2.1 GHz WCDMA
1800 MHz PSM
900 MHz GSM
850 MHz CDMA 2000
692 – 850 MHz UTRAN LTE
Normative
Range ITSI
Bandwidth Copyright@2010
21. The Digital Value chain
Intelligence
Identification
Power
App. or
ID & Intel Local Users
Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard
OS Browser App.
provider
ITSI
Copyright@2010
22. The Digital Value chain
Open Open
Network Network
App. or
Local Users
Content Billing Portals Net Core OS Browser Intel. ID App.
loop Hard
provider
App. or
ID & Intel. Local Users
Content Portals Net Core OS Browser App.
Billing Edge loop Hard
provider
Controlled Network ITSI
Copyright@2010
23. Abundance
―Survival dictates that
human beings develop an ethics
and aesthetics that favour
exploiting fully those recourses
that exist in abundance and
economizing on those items
that are in short supply.‖
- Taichi Sakaiya
ITSI
Copyright@2010
24. Exploiting the abundance
"Bandwidth is doubling every 8-9 months. Storage is
doubling every 12 months. Computing power is doubling
every 18 months. We're here to talk about exploiting the
abundance."
- Niel Robertson, Technologist-in-Residence, Mobius
Venture Capital, and former Technology Advisor, Exodus
ITSI
Copyright@2010
25. The ubiquitous
Internet will need
to be redefined if we are
to understand its true potential. ITSI
Copyright@2010
27. The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet
ITSI
Copyright@2010
28. The story so far
The Internet is all around us,
pervasive,
intelligent
and
invisible,
not confined to the narrow boundaries
of our mind and experience.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
29. The building blocks of the Cybersphere
Mental Cyberspace
Space
Physical The
Space Internet
ITSI
Copyright@2010
30. The building blocks of the Cybersphere
Mental Cyberspace
Space
Physical The
Space Internet
ITSI
Copyright@2010
31. The building blocks of the Cybersphere
is the virtual & physical space where all
the electronic technologies
Ubiquitous Cyberspace
Internet, payment systems,
CyberSphere
telephones, computing devices, media,
security systems, digital personal
identities, augmented reality
Ubiquitous Internet
- all converge into a single seamless
system.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
36. Oracle of Delphi
The Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess presiding
over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the
slopes of Mount Parnassus.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
38. The Oracle for a new millennium
What is the exchange rate right now?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
39. The Oracle for a new millennium
What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
40. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
41. The Oracle for a new millennium
What song is playing right now?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
42. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest resort?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
43. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is my car?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
44. The Oracle for a new millennium
What is happening at my office?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
45. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest open restaurant?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
46. Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City:
Special at BabysRus:
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
R99.00/40
R80.00/40
ITSI
Copyright@2010
47. Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City:
Special at BabysRus:
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
R99.00/40
R80.00/40
ITSI
Copyright@2010
48. AR for the London Underground
ITSI
Copyright@2010
49. Technology’s impact on time and space
Internet Bandwidth Connectivity Quality of
Protocol Experience
Information Information Information Information
Becomes Becomes Becomes Becomes
Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to
Content Time Space Form
ITSI
Copyright@2010
60. One click e-Commerce
Handheld TV units have bi-directional communication
capabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce
applications.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
66. Payment via Near Field Communication
Early market: Hong Kong
Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro-
payments
throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to
launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006
.
ITSI
Copyright@2010
67. The eBook competition is heating up
B&N Reader $199
Amazon Sony eBook
Kindle Reader
$299 $199
Apple iPad $499
ITSI
Copyright@2010
72. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Wifi coverage built into public
phone terminals
TIMELINE
Smart Barbie with GPS tracking,
personality chip and full sensory
input
Artificial Intelligent houses which
react to occupants
ITSI
Copyright@2010
73. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2011
Hospitals use virtual queuing
systems
TIMELINE
Neural networks used for
patient appointment
management
Multimedia patient records
ITSI
Copyright@2010
74. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2011
Home manager computer
TIMELINE
Chips in packaging control
cooking
Washing machine aware of
contents and selects
cycle
ITSI
Copyright@2010
75. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2012
Electronic wallpaper
Full voice interaction with machine
TIMELINE
Anti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
ITSI
Copyright@2010
76. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2013
Voice synthesis quality up
to human standard
TIMELINE
Voice over IP spam calls
become prevalent
Highly integrated
biosensors
ITSI
Copyright@2010
77. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2013
Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
social problem
TIMELINE
Government introduce legislation to protect
local community Intellectual Property from
exploitation in the Virtual World
ITSI
Copyright@2010
78. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2014
Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
high street
TIMELINE
Personal banking replaced by agents
Global barter sub-economy
ITSI
Copyright@2010
79. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2014
Shadow democracy used in community
networks
Most tickets electronic
TIMELINE
In-store positioning systems enable
personalised guides
ITSI
Copyright@2010
80. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2015
Artificial Intelligentteachers get better results
than most human teachers
TIMELINE
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous video
3D video conferencing
ITSI
Copyright@2010
81. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2015
Genetic screening widely used
TIMELINE
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to
medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part of
medical record
ITSI
Copyright@2010
82. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
Spread of nomadic information companies
leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
TIMELINE
More people using telework centres than
home working
ITSI
Copyright@2010
83. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Office Automationsystems using
functions similar tobrain functions
TIMELINE
Satellite location devices implanted into
humans become commonplace
Machine use of human-like creativity
ITSI
Copyright@2010
84. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2018
Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives
dominate
TIMELINE
Purely electronic companies exist - minimal
human involvement
ITSI
Copyright@2010
85. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2018
VR overlays on real world
TIMELINE
VR escapism is a major social problem
ITSI
Copyright@2010
86. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2018
Online surgeries dominate first linemedical
care
TIMELINE
Quiz shows screen for implant technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
ITSI
Copyright@2010
87. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2018
ID cards replaced by
biometric scanning
TIMELINE
Cyberspace covers 75%
of developed world
ITSI
Copyright@2010
88. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2020
Global voting on some issues
Network based telepathy
TIMELINE
VR extensively used in retirement homes
ITSI
Copyright@2010
89. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2025
Creation of ―The Matrix‖
Experience recording
TIMELINE
Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
ITSI
Copyright@2010
90. Business Opportunities in a world of abundance
Personalised TV advertisements
Shared RAN with Government / Competitors
Video glasses
―Time share‖ Virtual Presence
Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets /
Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi
Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G / LTE
Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to gather all
relevant information on your behalf
Management of all your IP addresses via your own
cockpit
ITSI
Copyright@2010
91. Universal Resource Locater (URL)
125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com
So, if your devices are called
196.14.23.45.13.126
198.34.56.78.123.235 or
198.34.56.78.235.12
What prohibits us then from giving all our devices
an easy-to-remember name?
Which bring us to the next question:
ITSI
Copyright@2010
92. What will be the most important Internet address in my life?
Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.name phone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 !
ITSI
Copyright@2010
94. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008
Smart Barbie with personality chip and
full sensory input
TIMELINE
Artificial Intelligent houses which
react to occupants
Expert systems surpass human
learning and logic abilities
ITSI
Copyright@2010
95. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009 Home manager computer
Chips in packaging control cooking
TIMELINE
Washing machine aware of contents
and selects cycle
ITSI
Copyright@2010
96. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009
Windows with holographic coatings
to re-direct sunlight
TIMELINE
Virtual windows
Full voice interaction with machine
ITSI
Copyright@2010
97. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Voice synthesis quality up to human
standard
TIMELINE
Talking head technology used in
public terminals
Highly integrated biosensors
ITSI
Copyright@2010
98. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Office Automationsystems using
functions similar tobrain functions
TIMELINE
Satellite location devices implanted
into humans become
commonplace
Machine use of human-like
creativity
ITSI
Copyright@2010
99. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Hospitals use virtual queuing systems
TIMELINE
Neural networks used for patient
appointment management
Multimedia patient records
ITSI
Copyright@2010
100. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2011
Genetic screening widely used
TIMELINE
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance
linked to medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part
of medical record
ITSI
Copyright@2010
101. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008 Virtual companies and virtual co-
operatives dominate
Purely electronic companies exist -
TIMELINE
minimal human involvement
Spread of nomadic information
companies leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
ITSI
Copyright@2010
102. Technological events that will define the
epoch
2011
VR overlays on real world
TIMELINE
VR escapism is a major social problem
Direct electronic pleasure production
Artificial senses, sensors directly
stimulating nerves
ITSI
Copyright@2010
103. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2012
Online surgeries dominate first line
medical care
TIMELINE
Quiz shows screen for implant
technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
ITSI
Copyright@2010
104. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2015
Artificial Intelligentteachers get better
results than most human teachers
TIMELINE
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous
video
3D video conferencing
ITSI
Copyright@2010
105. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2016
Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised
internationally
TIMELINE
Use of virtual environments for proxy
space exploration Emotion
transmission and conversion (feel love
or anger)
Digital image overlays enhance
relationships
ITSI
Copyright@2010
106. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Desktop computer as fast as human
brain
TIMELINE
1 Petabit memory chip
AI technology imitating thinking
processes of the brain
ITSI
Copyright@2010
107. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Parallel computer with 1000 million
processors
TIMELINE
ID cards replaced by biometric
scanning
Cyberspace covers 75% of
developed world
ITSI
Copyright@2010
110. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
Use of talking head technology for
conferencing
TIMELINE
Net bring and buy exchanges
Shopping lists automatically compiled by
supermarkets
ITSI
Copyright@2010
111. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
Personal shopping tablets
People have cyberspace wardrobe
TIMELINE
Frequent use of multiple Net identities
causes personality disorders
South Korean company
selling Avatar clothing
made more than
$ 10 million
profit in 2003 !!!
ITSI
Copyright@2010
112. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
First cellular phone virus becomes
prevalent
TIMELINE
RFIDs become commonplace
Global electronic currency in use
Conferencing technology for remote
socialising in public places
ITSI
Copyright@2010
113. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2006
1000 000 000 Internet users
People reduce tax liability by being partially
TIMELINE
paid in information products
Replacement of people leads to anti-
technology subculture
ITSI
Copyright@2010
114. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2008
Digital bathroom mirror
Magazine tablets
TIMELINE
Personalised response from household
gadgets
Electronic newspapers
ITSI
Copyright@2010
115. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2009
Automated real life highlight channels on
digital TV
TIMELINE
VR overlays on real world
Paper and coins largely replaced by
electronic cash
ITSI
Copyright@2010
116. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2010
Electronic wallpaper
Mood sensitive light bulbs
TIMELINE
Anti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
ITSI
Copyright@2010
117. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2011
Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
social problem
Government introduce legislation to protect
TIMELINE
local community IP
Social software, organising functions etc
Holodeck meeting room
ITSI
Copyright@2010
118. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2012
Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
high street
TIMELINE
Personal banking replaced by agents
Global barter sub-economy
ITSI
Copyright@2010
119. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2013
Shadow democracy used in community
networks
Most tickets electronic
TIMELINE
In-store positioning systems enable
personalised guides
ITSI
Copyright@2010
120. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
Spread of nomadic information companies
leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
TIMELINE
More people using telework centres than
home working
ITSI
Copyright@2010
121. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2017
Most towns echoed in cyberspace
Emotion transmission and conversion (feel
love or anger)
TIMELINE
Major pension crises
ITSI
Copyright@2010
122. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2025
Global voting on some issues
Network based telepathy
TIMELINE
VR extensively used in retirement homes
ITSI
Copyright@2010
123. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2035
Creation of ―The Matrix‖
Experience recording
TIMELINE
Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
ITSI
Copyright@2010
124. How do you create value in this environment?
ITSI
Copyright@2010
125. Sections of the presentation available on
www.itsi.org.za
Training -> Strategy Partners
Username: Strategy
Password: Partners
ITSI
Copyright@2010
