This report is covering the GDP per capita for Morocco, and approaches its expenditure and evolut the past 20 years. In these years Morocco has known a very good progress in the production of its good and services. At the end of the project it will a projection and prediction of the future using the times series methods.

1. GDP per capita of Morocco 2010
Morocco GDP
$5,000.00
$4,500.00
$4,000.00
$3,500.00
$3,000.00
GDP per capita
$2,500.00
$2,000.00 Morocco GDP
per capita
$1,500.00 (PPP)
$1,000.00
$500.00
$-
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
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Time series project
| Badr Moussadek

2. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Table of Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3
THE FOUR COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES: ....................................................................................................... 3
THE IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................................................. 4
Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 5
Seasonal Variation ........................................................................................................................................ 6
Cyclical and irregular variation ..................................................................................................................... 7
AGRICULTURE ............................................................................................................................................. 7
MINING..................................................................................................................................................... 8
MARITIME FISHING ...................................................................................................................................... 8
Forecasting .................................................................................................................................................... 9
Discussion...................................................................................................................................................... 9
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 14
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3. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Gross Domestic Product per capita of
Morocco
Introduction
GDP per Capita or (GDP ppp) is a very good approach to know the value of goods produced per person in
the country, in fact, GDP per capita is the total GDP of a country for one year divided by the total
number of the people of that country; furthermore, the GDP is the total of the consumption,
investment, Government expenditure, and net export:
GDP = Y=C+I+G+(X-M) And GDP per capita (PPP) = Y/Population.
This report will cover the GDP per capita for Morocco, and approach its expenditure and evolution of
the past 20 years. In the past 20 years Morocco has known a very good progress in the production of its
good and services; hence, it increased its GDP per capita; the table below show the change of GDP per
capita for the past 20 years:
Year GDP PPP Year GDP PPP
1989 1890.648 2000 2665.813
1990 2035.014 2001 2894.569
1991 2208.318 2002 3002.331
1992 2128.369 2003 3223.642
1993 2113.594 2004 3409.111
1994 2339.687 2005 3573.819
1995 2192.38 2006 3927.195
1996 2463.932 2007 4101.879
1997 2410.109 2008 4362.016
1998 2580.464 2009 4587.107
1999 2589.131 2009 4587.107
THE FOUR COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES:
1. Secular trend: which refers to the long trend of sales, employment, stock price and other
business and economic series; for instance, GDP per capita.
2. Cyclical variation: Which refers to the rise and fall of a time series in a period over one
year, this is used to refer to the current state of the economy whether it is in
Prosperity, Recession, Depression, or Recovery.
3. Seasonal Variation: Which refers to the patterns of change in a time series within
one year and tend to repeat themselves year after year.
4. Irregular variation: is subdivide into;
a) Episodic: which is unpredictable, but identifiable (strike or economic status)
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4. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
b) Residual – Which cannot be identified, and is a feat of chance (Natural
Disaster)
THE IMPLEMENTATION
These factors can be implemented into the trend of the Moroccan GDP per capita to explain its
variation and cyclical trend. For instance, the secular trend refers to growth in RGDP therefore,
increasing the GDP per capita, that’s why we will see in the graph an upward trend line. The
seasonal trend is the change in each quarter of the year in the GDP; to understand that we have
to mention that the economy of Morocco is based in some part on Agriculture and Tourism;
theses two make almost 20% of total GDP, therefore, this will impact the seasonal change. The
Cyclical Trend it depends on general economy of the world along with the Moroccan economy;
for example in case of recession (2008 the GDP per capita had been reduced less than the
previous year); other economic situation can be seen as well like depression then recovery
(2009). The irregular Trend is the hardest because of the episodic fluctuation are unpredictable;
but can be identifiable (again the strike of the US economy); the residual fluctuation is not
noticeable in this trend since there were no sudden catastrophe events in the past twenty
years.
Morocco GDP per capita (PPP)
1600.0
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Morocco GDP per capita (PPP)
Linear (Morocco GDP per capita
(PPP))
Figure 1
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5. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Trend Analysis
Where b and a are equal to:
And
Is the slope of the line. Or the average change in GDP per capita for each
change of one unit in a time (year or quarter)
Is the GDP per capita-intercept. It is the estimated value of GDP per capita
when t=0.
Above is the equation needed to determine the trend line equation, time is the
independent variable and the value of GDP per capita is the dependant variable.
Furthermore, we code the independent variable time to make the equation easier
to interpret. In other words, we replace the year (first year) by 1(t) and second
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6. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
year by 2, and so on. This equation will help us to forecast the data in the future
with high accuracy holding other variable constant (ceteris paribus). The slope of
the trend line is 14.82. This shows that over the 32 month the GDP per capita
increase at rate of $14.82 per quarter. The value of 696.1 is the intercept of the
trend line on the Y-axis (i.e., for t=0). The standard before being deseasonalized is
showing that the summer is the highest season (or quarter) and the lowest is the
winter.
1,600.00
1,400.00
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
GDP Per Capita
600.00
400.00 Deseasonalized
200.00 Linear (GDP
Per Capita)
0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Figure 2
Seasonal Variation
As each seasonal variation, the GDP per capita seasonal variation is changing over the year by season.
The determinant of the Moroccan’ GDP are many, where tourism and agriculture contribute a big part of
it. Because these two components are seasonal, the RGDP will tend to be seasonal as well; thus, making
the GDP per capita to know a seasonal variation. The highest quarter is the summer this is due to a high
entrance of tourism to Morocco that are combined of two parts: first are international tourists and the
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7. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
second are almost 1.3 million Moroccan living in Europe and other continent (Indicat et aggregats,
2010); furthermore, Morocco was targeting 10 million tourist for this year (2010), where 7,879,000.0 are
recorded in 2008 combining international (58% are from French and Spain) and Moroccan residing in
exterior (Worldbank data, 2010). On the other hand, most farmers harvest and sell their product in the
end of the spring and beginning of the summer (14.6 the total contribution of Agriculture for the year of
2008). The graph below shows the trend of the seasonal variation for one year.
Seasonal Index
1600.0
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
Seasonal 200.0
0.0
Index
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 3
Cyclical and irregular variation
The cyclical irregular variation is almost identical to the original data with the summer being the highest
and the winter is the lowest in each year; however in this graph we can extinguish the four phases of
Morocco economy cyclical , the year 1992 known a drop on the percentage of the RGDP that went to -
4% this is due the recession period that affected most of the word and especially Europe; Morocco is
trading mostly with the European union countries; therefore, any change in these countries economy
will affect directly the Moroccan economy.
AGRICULTURE
Agriculture generate and contribute a good part to the GDP, it make a good position in the national
economy by providing 15% of the GDP during the three past years 2002-2004. Furthermore, the GDP
growth rate registered 12% between 2002-2003, due to the good climate condition and rain. However,
the year 2004 was marked by a weak growth which did not exceed 2%. The performances of the
agricultural sector continue to influence those of the whole economy. Between 1996 and 2000,
agriculture contributed slightly to the growth of the GDP with a 0,6 points for an average growth rate of
3,7% (3,1 points for the GDP not including agriculture ). Between 2001 and 2004, with 4,8% average
growth rate of the GDP, agriculture contributed with 1,7 points (against 3,1 for the rest of the
economy). As for food industries, their growth rate amounted to 2% during the period 2001-2003.
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8. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Although the added value generated by these industries amounts to 55% of all processing industries,
their contribution to the economy is still very weak with 8% of global GDP (Economy of Morocco, 2010).
MINING
The mining sector holds an important place in the Moroccan economy. It represents 21% of the
value of exports remittances and employs about 39,225 persons. Morocco contains 3/4 of the
world's phosphates reserves. It is the world's first exporter and third producer.
MARITIME FISHING
Morocco boasts two sea coastlines the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, extending over 3500
Km. With a fleet of 3000 ships and thriving port facilities, Morocco is the most important producer and
exporter of sea products in Africa and the Arab world. The sector of sea fisheries represents 15% of the
overall value of exports and 55% of the value of food exports and it employ 200000 persons.
On the graph we can notice also a slowdown of growth in 2008 (the index shows 85%), which is noticed
by a recession in all over the world this has influenced the Moroccan economy and affected the total
GDP for the year mentioned. Whereas, 2002 we can notice a very good growth in the total GDP that will
affect automatically the GDP per capita, this was due the good climate condition and a growth of
tourism rate (the index shows a growth of 124.1%.)
Cyclical Irregular Ratios (CxI)
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Winter
Winter
Winter
Winter
Spring
Winter
Winter
Winter
Spring
Spring
Spring
Spring
Spring
Spring
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
Summer
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Figure 4
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9. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Forecasting
Forecasting is very important for any organization, Good forecast of the future improve the productivity
and certainty of companies along with economies. In the case of a macro-economy for a country like
Morocco is vey crucial to predict the future and decide what you plans should be; Moroccans economist
had worked to tighten the effect of the global recession and meltdown of economies. Furthermore, the
forecasting of the 2009 data was almost similar, because the trend of development was planned by the
Ministry to enhance the country economy. Despite a difficult international environment in which
international tourism declines averaging - 4%, the Moroccan tourism has maintained a steady
growth rate demonstrating its resilience to external economic shocks. Indeed, Morocco was the
only country in the Mediterranean in 2009 to exceed the 6% growth in terms of international
arrivals (Economy of Morocco, 2010).
Real Data Against Predicted data
1600
1400
1200
GDP per capita
1000
800
Real Year
600
Predectied Year
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Quarter
Figure 5
Discussion
In the previous graph we will see the real data and the predicted data. In the graph we can notice a slide
difference from the predicted and the real for the first two quarters; the real data shows a very slow
progress in the GDP per capita for the first quarter, this is due, to the recovery of the recession that
happened in 2008; whereas, the predicted data does not include any recession or unexpected
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10. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
phenomena. In fact, in the second quarter the real data had known a great growth against the predicted
data, this is due to a boost in the economy of Morocco and a good season of agriculture along with a
reasonable growth of tourists on the last two quarters.
Conclusion
The time series is a very good tool that helps us lay the data and understand its trend, the time
series enable us to modeling, forecasting, and simulating the data to better predict the future and
be able to get the best approach to use the country resources by efficiency. Furthermore, it can
help us understand the impact of other factors like recession, unpredicted disasters, and market
condition. The most important of analysing this data is to make the economists ready to make
good decision, in case of slowdown of the economy, the government can decide to reduce its
expenditure, or lower its taxes to generate more cash and business to invest, this known as
expenditure fiscal policy. On the opposite side, if the country like Morocco known a boost it will
try to reduce its purchase and higher the taxes to stop the country to go in a high inflation, this is
known with contractionary fiscal policy (Sexton, 2009).
Indeed the time series was a good tools and function to understand the evolution of the economy
of Morocco and in particular it’s GDP per capita, and how the trend has been growing through
the last 20 years. Furthermore, the time series allowed me to predict accurately data for the future
with a slide difference due the impact of the economy determinants. This study purpose is to
elaborate and calculate the data then predict the future, it’s a tools that has been used by many
other economist in particular. In general, the Time series is a material and subject that explore
the numbers and give a slide precision future, this subject is been taught in almost all other
science from economy to engineering.
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11. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Appendix
GDP (purchasing power parity)
This entry gives the gross domestic product (GDP) or value of all final goods and services
produced within a nation in a given year. A nation's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP)
exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at
prices prevailing in the United States. This is the measure most economists prefer when looking
at per-capita welfare and when comparing living conditions or use of resources across countries.
The measure is difficult to compute, as a US dollar value has to be assigned to all goods and
services in the country regardless of whether these goods and services have a direct equivalent in
the United States (for example, the value of an ox-cart or non-US military equipment); as a
result, PPP estimates for some countries are based on a small and sometimes different set of
goods and services. In addition, many countries do not formally participate in the World Bank's
PPP project that calculates these measures, so the resulting GDP estimates for these countries
may lack precision. For many developing countries, PPP-based GDP measures are multiples of
the official exchange rate (OER) measure. The differences between the OER- and PPP-
denominated GDP values for most of the wealthy industrialized countries are generally much
smaller.
The Economy growth by the King decision (CIA world factbook)
Economic policies pursued since 2003 by King Mohammed VI have brought macroeconomic stability to
the country with generally low inflation, improved financial sector performance, and steady progress in
developing the services and industrial sectors. The National Initiative for Human Development (INDH), a
$2 billion initiative launched by the King in 2005, has improved social welfare through a successful rural
electrification program, an overhaul of the tourism and agriculture sectors, and the gradual replacement
of urban slums with decent housing. Despite the INDH's success, Morocco continues to grapple with a
high illiteracy rate, a low education enrolment rate, and a high urban youth unemployment rate of
around 30%. Moroccan exports have dropped sharply since mid-2008 as a result of the decline in global
phosphates prices--the bulk of Moroccan exports by value--and the global economic slowdown. The
recession in Europe--Morocco's main export market--also prompted a decline in the flow of foreign
tourists and remittances, two primary sources of foreign currency. A record agricultural harvest, strong
government spending, and domestic consumption, however, combined to offset losses from weak
exports and helped GDP grow by 5.1% in 2009 (Africa-Morocco, 2010).
Regression Analysis
r² 0.389 n 32
r 0.624 k 1
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12. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Std. Error 176.922 Dep. Var. GDP Per Capita
ANOVA table
Source SS df MS F p-value
Regression 599,078.7920 1 599,078.7920 19.14 .0001
Residual 939,045.3906 30 31,301.5130
Total 1,538,124.1826 31
Regression output confidence interval
std. 95% 95%
variables coefficients error t (df=30) p-value lower upper
Intercept 710.8803 61.1133 11.632 1.21E-12 586.0703 835.6904
Year 14.8190 3.3874 4.375 .0001 7.9011 21.7369
Centered Moving Average and
Deseasonalization
Centered
GDP Per
Moving Ratio to Seasonal Capita
GDP Per
t Year Quarter Capita Average CMA Indexes Deseasonalized
1 2002 1 600.40 0.854 702.971
2 2002 2 660.50 0.910 725.770
3 2002 3 990.70 760.088 1.303 1.301 761.216
4 2002 4 750.50 779.763 0.962 0.934 803.214
5 2003 1 676.90 794.975 0.851 0.854 792.540
6 2003 2 741.40 802.963 0.923 0.910 814.664
7 2003 3 1,031.50 806.463 1.279 1.301 792.565
8 2003 4 773.60 808.150 0.957 0.934 827.936
9 2004 1 681.80 820.913 0.831 0.854 798.277
10 2004 2 750.00 842.425 0.890 0.910 824.114
11 2004 3 1,125.00 860.838 1.307 1.301 864.406
12 2004 4 852.20 878.413 0.970 0.934 912.057
13 2005 1 750.50 889.725 0.844 0.854 878.714
14 2005 2 821.90 892.738 0.921 0.910 903.119
15 2005 3 1,143.60 897.788 1.274 1.301 878.698
16 2005 4 857.70 902.501 0.950 0.934 917.943
17 2006 1 785.40 926.803 0.847 0.854 919.576
18 2006 2 824.71 966.253 0.854 0.910 906.207
19 2006 3 1,335.20 991.240 1.347 1.301 1,025.916
20 2006 4 981.70 1015.564 0.967 0.934 1,050.653
21 2007 1 861.30 1027.575 0.838 0.854 1,008.443
22 2007 2 943.40 1025.088 0.920 0.910 1,036.626
23 2007 3 1,312.60 1037.713 1.265 1.301 1,008.551
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13. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
24 2007 4 984.40 1057.475 0.931 0.934 1,053.542
25 2008 1 959.60 1080.800 0.888 0.854 1,123.536
26 2008 2 1,003.20 1082.650 0.927 0.910 1,102.335
27 2008 3 1,439.40 1069.100 1.346 1.301 1,105.979
28 2008 4 872.40 1076.025 0.811 0.934 933.676
29 2009 1 963.20 1086.050 0.887 0.854 1,127.751
30 2009 2 1,055.00 1118.163 0.944 0.910 1,159.254
31 2009 3 1,467.80 1.301 1,127.801
32 2009 4 1,100.90 0.934 1,178.225
Calculation of
Seasonal
Indexes
1 2 3 4
2002 1.303 0.962
2003 0.851 0.923 1.279 0.957
2004 0.831 0.890 1.307 0.970
2005 0.844 0.921 1.274 0.950
2006 0.847 0.854 1.347 0.967
2007 0.838 0.920 1.265 0.931
2008 0.888 0.927 1.346 0.811
2009 0.887 0.944
mean: 0.855 0.911 1.303 0.936 4.005
adjusted: 0.854 0.910 1.301 0.934 4.000
Forecast
2009
Predectied
Quarters Real Year
Year
Q1 963.2 1123.9
Q2 1055 1055
2009
Q3 1467.8 1153.34
Q4 1100.9 1168.02
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14. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek
Bibliography
Africa-Morocco. (2010). Retrieved July 20, 2010, from Central Intelligence Agency:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mo.html
Economy of Morocco. (2010). Retrieved August 1, 2010, from www.maroc.ma:
http://www.maroc.ma/PortailInst/An/MenuGauche/Portrait+of+Morocco/Economy/Agriculture.htm
Indicat et aggregats. (2010). Retrieved July 15, 2010, from Haut-Commissariat au plan:
http://www.hcp.ma/
Sexton, f. a. (2009). Exploring Macroeconomics. Torontp.
The world Factbook-Morocco. (2010, July 27). Retrieved July 31, 2010, from central intelligent agency:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mo.html
Worldbank data. (2010). Retrieved July 29, 2010, from http://www.worldbank.org/:
http://search.worldbank.org/quickview?view_url=http%3A%2F%2Fdatabanksearch.worldbank.org%2FD
ataSearch%2FLoadReport.aspx%3Fdb%3D2%26cntrycode%3DMAR%26sercode%3DST.INT.ARVL%26yrco
de%3D
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