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TRADOC OE Dr. Bishop Presentation
- 1. TRADOC Mad Scientist Newport News VA January 20, 2010 Strategic Foresight Technological Forecasting Dr. Peter Bishop Futures Studies University of Houston Source: Technology Forecast Archive, Battelle, http://www.battelle.org/spotlight/tech_forecast/
- 3. Change
- 5. Four Basic Concepts Sources Times Levels Rates Change
- 6. Sources of Change … but within limits Anticipate… Intelligence Influence … Policy INBOUND Change that happens to us Predict… OUTBOUND Change we create ourselves Control …
- 7. Levels of Change Transactional Environment Enterprise STEEP Political Environmental Technological Economic Social Demographic Cultural
- 9. The Real Shape of Change S-Curve 1 No problem. 2 What is going on here? 3 Whew!
- 10. Eras in Information Technology
- 12. Estimation errors Underestimation Too late Too soon Overestimation
- 13. Hype Curve Expectation Reality Overestimate Underestimate The media first overestimates the effect of a change. Then the media underestimates its effect.
- 14. Punctuated Equilibrium Transitions Transformational, Discontinuous Eras Incremental, Continuous
- 15. Successive Eras Speed Riding Motoring Flying Law of diminishing returns Running Inherent capacity for performance
- 16. x The Gap Old era New era Transitions inevitability create problems... … but problems are investments toward a better future.
- 22. Inference Model Evidence Unobservable Observable Forecast Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Assumption Assumption Assumption
- 23. Knowing Different Times Visions Events Trends Issues Images Drawings Writings Artifacts Structures Bones Present Evidence History Assumptions Forecast Assumptions
- 24. Prediction and Forecasting Prediction Physical evidence Strong assumptions Unitary phenomenon Higher quality inferences Forecasting Intangible evidence Weak assumptions Multiple possibilities Lower quality inferences
- 27. Mechanisms of Change – The Baseline Trends Plans Expected Future Implications Projections Stakeholder Intentions/Plans Trends Cycles Constants
- 29. Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation
- 32. The Cone of Plausibility The Future is many, not one. Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College Present Limit of Plausibility Alternative Futures Limit of Plausibility Past Implications Baseline
- 34. Mechanisms of Change -- Alternatives Discontinuities Trends Unresolved issues Novel ideas Proposals Scenarios Implications Potential events Wildcards Unfulfilled intentions Failed strategies Trend reversals Counter-trends
- 35. The “Trick” of Scenarios Impact High High Moderate Low Low Probability U n i m p o r t a n t Expected Wildcard Scenario
- 36. Words and Probabilities = ~0%, but with high impact if it does occur Wildcard = ~50% Most uncertain = more likely than any other, but is usually << 50% Most likely (expected, surprise-free, official, baseline) = ~0% or ~100% Most certain = 100% Certain > 50% Probable, likely >> 0% Plausible > 0% Possible = 0% Impossible Means… Term…
- 38. The Real Purpose of Forecasting Surprises
- 39. Two ways to the top ...rather than in a big way all at once! Being surprised in little ways over a long time...
- 42. The Third Wave Era 1 Era 1 Hunting/ Gathering Agricultural Industrial Information
- 43. Other Waves Era 1 Steam Electricity Petroleum Information Rail
- 47. The Elimination of... The Reduction of...
- 55. Energy?
- 56. Source: ASPO-USA; created by OilPoster.org One possible scenario…
- 57. Temperature Projections to 2100 Source: IPCC Data Distribution Center, http://ipcc-data.org/
- 60. A Complex Energy Picture Commerce, Comfort & Connectivity Emissions Control Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal Bio-fuels Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar Nuclear Engineered Crops ICE Fuel Cell Gasoline & Diesel Gasification Combined Cycle Chemical Separation Syngas Hydrogen Fischer Tropsch Refining CO 2 Flue Gas PC Sequestration Nuclear Waste Transportation Bio-refining Chemical Processing Transmission Batteries Transmission Personal Mobility Societal Needs
- 61. Getting to Work
- 62. Mechanisms of Change -- Preferred Choice Discontinuity Trend
- 64. Language of the Future STEEP Demographic Technological Economic Environmental Political Cultural Expectations Trends Plans Preferences Values Vision Goals Strategies Actions Scenarios Trend reversals Unfulfilled plans Potential events Unresolved issues New ideas
- 65. A Final Word Learning faster than your competitors is the only sustainable competitive advantage in an environment of rapid innovation and change. -- Arie de Geus, former Director Corporate Planning Royal Dutch Shell Group
Notes de l'éditeur
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Symbol in the middle
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Inference -- a statement concerning an unobservable phenomenon. Inferences require support in the form of evidence and assumptions. Example: a forecast. Evidence -- a statement that no one disputes as true, usually concerning an observable phenomenon (a fact). Since evidence is not disputed, they require no further support. Example: a trend line. Assumption -- a belief that is required so that a particular piece of evidence can be used to support a particular inference. Assumptions cannot be proven to be true or false although one can put forward reasons and evidence to make an assumption more or less likely. Example: The trend will continue. The graph shows that supporting inferences requires evidence that link to them via assumptions.
- The form of the support for inferences in history, science and futures studies is the same, but the single-valued prediction is only useful in science, not yet in the realm of human affairs.
- As a result, we draw the distinction between prediction and forecasting. Scientific prediction is fine and results in well-supported inferences. Trying to predict anything involving humans, however, is fraught with so much uncertainty that single-valued predictions are just about useless. By forecasting, therefore, we mean presenting a set of plausible alternative forecasts rather than a single prediction of what “will” happen.
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Trends, discontinuities and choices are each the primary ingredients to the three types of futures we deal with – Trends (and other elements like plans) lead to the expected, baseline (probable) future. The probable future occurs if all the assumptions made about the world are correct. It is more likely than any other single future, but its absolute probability is quite small since so many other things could happen instead. Discontinuities (or alternative assumptions) lead to the other alternative (plausible) futures. As a set, they are much more likely to occur, but any single one is still quite improbable. Choices (and actions) lead to the preferred future.
- Three primary mechanisms create change, according to our model – Trends – continuous change over a long period of time, but usually confined to one era Discontinuities – discontinuous change that occurs rapidly, usually ending one era and starting and new one. Together these constitute “in-bound” change, the change we describe when we forecast the future. Choice – our response to change and strategies for influencing and creating change – the “outbound” change that is also involved in creating the future.
- Incorrect assumptions are most often the root of failed forecasts or expectations about the future. Therefore, futurists are much more in the assumptions business than in the data business.
- Scientific prediction gets better as time goes on. And any scientific prediction can be made even more precise by improving the information and theory that goes into making the prediction. Futures studies, however, deals with three sources of uncertainty that are not amenable to more information and better theories – Chaos – Chaos has become a buzz word of late as it is applied in too many cases. But it is a real source of uncertainty because a system in chaos (a mathematical state of a system) is predictable from one event or moment to the next, but rapidly becomes unpredictable in the medium-term. And there is no way of reducing that uncertainty. Complexity – Independent agents working in an environment, even “non-intelligent” ones, can come up with surprising patterns of behavior that one one predicted. Again, no amount of information or theory can discount the element of surprise in complex adaptive systems. Choice – And in the end, we believe that we and others have free choice. Well, if the choice is really free, then it is not predictable. Taken together, these sources of uncertainty pretty well put to rest the possibility that we can have any hope of predicting the future of human systems.
- Trends, discontinuities and choices are each the primary ingredients to the three types of futures we deal with – Trends (and other elements like plans) lead to the expected, baseline (probable) future. The probable future occurs if all the assumptions made about the world are correct. It is more likely than any other single future, but its absolute probability is quite small since so many other things could happen instead. Discontinuities (or alternative assumptions) lead to the other alternative (plausible) futures. As a set, they are much more likely to occur, but any single one is still quite improbable. Choices (and actions) lead to the preferred future.
- Three primary mechanisms create change, according to our model – Trends – continuous change over a long period of time, but usually confined to one era Discontinuities – discontinuous change that occurs rapidly, usually ending one era and starting and new one. Together these constitute “in-bound” change, the change we describe when we forecast the future. Choice – our response to change and strategies for influencing and creating change – the “outbound” change that is also involved in creating the future.
- The purpose of scanning is to be surprised when things change. We try to pick up the signs of change (some call them “weak signals”) before they become strong forces of change. Along the Gulf Coast, we watch the barometer during the summer and fall. Even the slightest twitches downwards means that there might be a powerful storm coming our way.
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Org chart and Network picture
- Org chart and Network picture
- --Note that world-wide discoveries of oil peaked during the 1960s, and have been in a bumpy decline ever since. The Optimists say there is a lot more oil to be discovered, and that it will be discovered once prices stay higher longer and once large proven reserves become less plentiful. Furthermore, they point to a factor called “reserves growth” within existing fields that undercuts the need to discover new fields. It will be interesting to follow this claim. So far, during this century’s high-price regime, the new discoveries fail to match the size and quality of the super-giant fields discovered from 1930-1970, during oil’s heyday. --This is just a scenario. Peak oil could land a couple of years later. We could, as we show here, have several mini-peaks on a modest plateau. It might play out quite differently; for example, if the US bombed Iran and they responded by attacking oil freighters passing through the Straits of Hormuz and terrorists (or Iran) attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refining and export facility, we could experience peak oil within a month after that event. Another scenario would show that we are already on a plateau of production and it won’t increase substantially for a number of years when it will slip into decline. Another scenario would show production increasing intermittently another 8%-10% before declining immediately after that peak. No one knows the exact “when” and “what happens then” answers—no one.
- Perhaps the upstream companies will extend into mining, though many strongly believe that their competencies are in reservoir technology, not in surface mining The majors all went for coal in the 1980s and regretted it I’m not sure the Big Dig concept will attract any followers
- Org chart and Network picture
- Three primary mechanisms create change, according to our model – Trends – continuous change over a long period of time, but usually confined to one era Discontinuities – discontinuous change that occurs rapidly, usually ending one era and starting and new one. Together these constitute “in-bound” change, the change we describe when we forecast the future. Choice – our response to change and strategies for influencing and creating change – the “outbound” change that is also involved in creating the future.
- Trends, discontinuities and choices are each the primary ingredients to the three types of futures we deal with – Trends (and other elements like plans) lead to the expected, baseline (probable) future. The probable future occurs if all the assumptions made about the world are correct. It is more likely than any other single future, but its absolute probability is quite small since so many other things could happen instead. Discontinuities (or alternative assumptions) lead to the other alternative (plausible) futures. As a set, they are much more likely to occur, but any single one is still quite improbable. Choices (and actions) lead to the preferred future.