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LEARNING FROM THE TOP-PERFORMERS IN
TOBACCO RETAIL
                                                                         April 26, 2011

                    Presented as Part of




                                                                    117 South Cook Street #339
                                                                      Barrington, Illinois 60010
                                                                           phone: 847.722.2732
                                                                               fax: 847.382.1801
                Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.    davidbishop@balvor.com
What can we learn from top-performers?


                                         Space




                                 KPIs
             Product                                                       Inventory




                       Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.               2
Composition of Retailer Respondents
  (Percent of Retailers – Grouped by Number of Stores Operated)


                                     500+
                   201-500
                                  Stores, 2%
                  Stores, 4%


                    51-200
                  Stores, 8%
                                                                                      Top-Line Characteristics
             11-50
           Stores, 9%                                                                 # of retailers: 162
                                                         1 Store,
                                                           48%
                                                                                      # of store represented: 17,391
                                                                                      1-10 store operator share: 77%
                                                                                      Median cigarette CPW: 120
                    2-10                                                              Survey: 1/18/11 – 1/31/11
                   Stores,
                    29%




Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.           3
2010 Cigarette Carton Sales
  (Average per Store Week)



                                       414




                                                                                                                 102




                                 Top Quartile                                                                  All Other

Note: Quartiles are based on average weekly cigarette volume per store.
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.               4
2010 Dollar Sales Growth Index
  (Top Quartile vs. All Other)

                                                                                      Index = (Top Quartile / All Other) x 100



   Cigarettes                                                                                                        227




          OTP                                                                      123




Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                     5
Average Shelf Space per Store – vs. Year Ago
       (Percent of Retailers)

                                Cigarettes                                                                        OTP

                                                                                                         47%

                                                                                                                          41%
Increased




                   9%
                                                      6%
Decreased




                                                                                                                          12%
                                                                                                         15%
                                                     17%
                  21%


             Top Quartile                         All Other                                        Top Quartile         All Other

Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                        6
Cigarette Space Allocations – vs. Year Ago
       (Percent of Retailers)

                             Top Quartile                                                                         All Other
Increased




                                                               38%



                                                                                              20%                            21%
                                             16%                                                                                             16%
                           12%                                                                                  13%
              9%

                                                                                              10%
Decreased




                                                                                                                                             17%

             26%                                               27%                                              25%          25%
                           29%               31%



            Premium     Branded         Sub-Generic       Fourth Tier                     Premium             Branded     Sub-Generic     Fourth Tier
                        Discount       /Private Label                                                         Discount   /Private Label

Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                          Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                             7
OTP Space Allocations – vs. Year Ago
       (Percent of Retailers)

                             Top Quartile                                                                        All Other
              61%

                                                                                              51%
                           47%                                 48%
Increased




                                                                                                              38%



                                                                                                                                     18%
                                                                                                                         15%
                                             11%

                                                                                               7%                        7%
              12%                                                                                             14%
                                                                                                                                     18%
                                                               22%
Decreased




                                             25%

                           34%


            Smokeless     Cigars           Papers       Pipe/Cigarette                   Smokeless            Cigars    Papers   Pipe/Cigarette
                                                           Tobacco                                                                  Tobacco

Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                          Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                       8
In-Store Inventory Levels
       (Percent Change vs. Year Ago)
Increased




                                         2.4%




                                                  0.5%                              0.6%
            -0.2%


                                                                                                               -1.9%               -1.9%
Decreased




                                                                                                                                           -2.2%
                                                                         -2.7%



                                                                                                                       -4.1%

                    -4.9%

             Cigarettes                   Smokeless                           Cigars                             Papers        Pipe/Cigarette Tobacco

                                                                    Top Quartile         All Other


Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                            9
# of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Cigarettes
       (Percent of Retailers)

                             Top Quartile                                                                         All Other
Increased




             38%                                                                              37%

                           24%               24%               24%
                                                                                                                             19%             19%
                                                                                                                15%




             18%                                                                              18%
Decreased




                                                                                                                                             19%
                                                                                                                             24%
                                                               28%
                                                                                                                31%
                           35%
                                             42%


            Premium     Branded         Sub-Generic       Fourth Tier                     Premium             Branded     Sub-Generic     Fourth Tier
                        Discount       /Private Label                                                         Discount   /Private Label

Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                          Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                             10
# of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Smokeless
       (Percent of Retailers)

                             Top Quartile                                                                       All Other
                                          67%

                                                                                            56%                        54%
Increased




                                                                                                                46%
            41%                40%

                                                                                                          26%
                                                      21%
                   17%
                                                                                                                             14%
                                                                   0%                                                              8%
                                                                                                                 7%
                               13%                                                          12%                        13%
Decreased




                                          15%
            22%                                                                                           21%                23%   24%
                   28%
                                                      36%
                                                                  39%




Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                          Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                              11
# of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Cigars
       (Percent of Retailers)

                                Top Quartile                                                                   All Other



                                                                                              48%
Increased




                44%
                                             39%

                                                                                                                        28%           29%
                              23%                              22%                                            21%



                                                                                               8%
Decreased




                                                                                                                                      11%
                                                                                                                        15%
                                             19%
                25%                                            25%                                            24%


                              40%

            Singles-Small Singles-Large   Pack-Little     Pack-Small                   Singles-Small Singles-Large   Pack-Little   Pack-Small

Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.”
Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                          Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                     12
Current Availability of e-cigarettes
  (Percent of Retailers)




              53%

                                                                                                                                    46%




                                                                                                               26%

                                                                                               21%                         21%

                          15%
                                                               13%

                                                    6%

                    Yes                   No, but we're planning to sell            No and we're still evaluating    No and we don't have any
                                                  them in 2011                           this opportunity             plans to add at this time

                                                                     Top Quartile        All Other


Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                                      13
2011 Dollar Sales Targets
  (Percent Change vs. Year Ago)



                                                                                                               7.5%

                                                                                                                            6.8%




                                                 4.0%
                           3.7%




                                   Cigarettes                                                                         OTP

                                                                     Top Quartile        All Other


Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011.

                                                           Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.                       14
What lessons did we learn from top-performers?

•   Space - Manage it more aggressively
•   SKUs - Scrutinize lower-volume ones more closely
•   Inventory - Balance reduced levels with in-stock on core SKUs
•   Assortment – Keep fresh with NPI, but don’t loose focus on base




                            Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved.   15

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Learning from the top performers in tobacco retailing

  • 1. LEARNING FROM THE TOP-PERFORMERS IN TOBACCO RETAIL April 26, 2011 Presented as Part of 117 South Cook Street #339 Barrington, Illinois 60010 phone: 847.722.2732 fax: 847.382.1801 Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. davidbishop@balvor.com
  • 2. What can we learn from top-performers? Space KPIs Product Inventory Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2
  • 3. Composition of Retailer Respondents (Percent of Retailers – Grouped by Number of Stores Operated) 500+ 201-500 Stores, 2% Stores, 4% 51-200 Stores, 8% Top-Line Characteristics 11-50 Stores, 9% # of retailers: 162 1 Store, 48% # of store represented: 17,391 1-10 store operator share: 77% Median cigarette CPW: 120 2-10 Survey: 1/18/11 – 1/31/11 Stores, 29% Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3
  • 4. 2010 Cigarette Carton Sales (Average per Store Week) 414 102 Top Quartile All Other Note: Quartiles are based on average weekly cigarette volume per store. Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 4
  • 5. 2010 Dollar Sales Growth Index (Top Quartile vs. All Other) Index = (Top Quartile / All Other) x 100 Cigarettes 227 OTP 123 Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. Average Shelf Space per Store – vs. Year Ago (Percent of Retailers) Cigarettes OTP 47% 41% Increased 9% 6% Decreased 12% 15% 17% 21% Top Quartile All Other Top Quartile All Other Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 6
  • 7. Cigarette Space Allocations – vs. Year Ago (Percent of Retailers) Top Quartile All Other Increased 38% 20% 21% 16% 16% 12% 13% 9% 10% Decreased 17% 26% 27% 25% 25% 29% 31% Premium Branded Sub-Generic Fourth Tier Premium Branded Sub-Generic Fourth Tier Discount /Private Label Discount /Private Label Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7
  • 8. OTP Space Allocations – vs. Year Ago (Percent of Retailers) Top Quartile All Other 61% 51% 47% 48% Increased 38% 18% 15% 11% 7% 7% 12% 14% 18% 22% Decreased 25% 34% Smokeless Cigars Papers Pipe/Cigarette Smokeless Cigars Papers Pipe/Cigarette Tobacco Tobacco Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8
  • 9. In-Store Inventory Levels (Percent Change vs. Year Ago) Increased 2.4% 0.5% 0.6% -0.2% -1.9% -1.9% Decreased -2.2% -2.7% -4.1% -4.9% Cigarettes Smokeless Cigars Papers Pipe/Cigarette Tobacco Top Quartile All Other Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9
  • 10. # of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Cigarettes (Percent of Retailers) Top Quartile All Other Increased 38% 37% 24% 24% 24% 19% 19% 15% 18% 18% Decreased 19% 24% 28% 31% 35% 42% Premium Branded Sub-Generic Fourth Tier Premium Branded Sub-Generic Fourth Tier Discount /Private Label Discount /Private Label Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • 11. # of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Smokeless (Percent of Retailers) Top Quartile All Other 67% 56% 54% Increased 46% 41% 40% 26% 21% 17% 14% 0% 8% 7% 13% 12% 13% Decreased 15% 22% 21% 23% 24% 28% 36% 39% Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11
  • 12. # of SKUs Offered vs. Year Ago - Cigars (Percent of Retailers) Top Quartile All Other 48% Increased 44% 39% 28% 29% 23% 22% 21% 8% Decreased 11% 15% 19% 25% 25% 24% 40% Singles-Small Singles-Large Pack-Little Pack-Small Singles-Small Singles-Large Pack-Little Pack-Small Note: Percentages may not equal 100% as difference relates to those responding that space “remained the same.” Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 12
  • 13. Current Availability of e-cigarettes (Percent of Retailers) 53% 46% 26% 21% 21% 15% 13% 6% Yes No, but we're planning to sell No and we're still evaluating No and we don't have any them in 2011 this opportunity plans to add at this time Top Quartile All Other Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13
  • 14. 2011 Dollar Sales Targets (Percent Change vs. Year Ago) 7.5% 6.8% 4.0% 3.7% Cigarettes OTP Top Quartile All Other Source: Balvor/CSN 2011 Tobacco Retailing Survey, Balvor LLC, February 2011. Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. What lessons did we learn from top-performers? • Space - Manage it more aggressively • SKUs - Scrutinize lower-volume ones more closely • Inventory - Balance reduced levels with in-stock on core SKUs • Assortment – Keep fresh with NPI, but don’t loose focus on base Copyright © 2011 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15