A political outlook presented by Welber Barral, former Secretary of Foreign Trade and co-founder of Barral M Jorge & Associates.

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SUMMARY
BARRAL M JORGE CONSULTORES ASSOCIADOS
2
TRADE BALANCE
TRADE BALANCE - ASIA
OPPORTUNITITIES
CHALLENGES
TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

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Trade Balance 2015
3

4. TRADE BALANCE
• 2006 - 2015
137.8
160.6
197.9
153
201.9
256
242.6 242
225.1
191.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exports

5. TRADE BALANCE
• 2006 - 2015
91.4
120.6
173
127.7
181.8
226.2 223.2
239.7 229.2
171.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Imports

6. TRADE BALANCE
• 2006 - 2015
137.8
160.6
197.9
153
201.9
256 242.6 242 225.1
191.1
91.4
120.6
173
127.7
181.8
226.2 223.2
239.7
229.2
171.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exports x Imports
Exports Imports

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 Exports and Imports declined recently
 Brazilian firms are eager to export more
 Search for new markets and opportunities
 Exchange rate unfavorable for imports
 Main exports of agricultural products and iron
 Main imports of machines, fertilizers, fuels and high- tech
devices

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Trade Balance Brazil -
Asia
10

11. TRADE BALANCE BRAZIL - ASIA
• 2006 - 2015
20.8
25.1
37.6 40.2
56.2
76.7 74.6 77.6
73.5
63.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exports

12. TRADE BALANCE BRAZIL - ASIA
• 2006 - 2015
22.8
30.7
47.1
36.1
56.1
70 68.8
73.2 71.1
55.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Imports

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 Quick growth starting from 2011
 Asian markets are unknown to many Brazilian companies
 Most operations are performed by trading companies, limited
participation of domestic companies
 Main exports of agricultural products and iron
 Main imports of machines, fertilizers, fuels and high- tech
devices

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Challenges, opportunities
and negotiations
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FTA Negotiations
 Brasil will only sign FTAs within the Mercosur framework.
 Change of course in Mercosur after Argentinean elections
 Concerns about the ratification of TPP
 Mercosur main negotiation = EU
 Other negotiations: Canada, EFTA, Lebanon, and Tunisia
 Advances on non-tariff issues

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Challenges
 Political and economic crisis
 Fluctuating exchange rate
 Relationship with authorities in Brazil (MAPA, MDIC and others.)
 Increasing number of investigations of origin
 Active use of trade remedies
 Complex tax system

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Opportunities
 Brazilian consumer market remains one of the world's largest
market
 Imports of machines and hightech still have large demand
 Opportunities to invest and partnership with Brazilian companies
 Opportunities for foreign companies in the airlines, oil and gas
and infrastructure sectors.
 Brazilian government is under pressure to conclude new trade
agreements
 Brazilian firms are searching new markets.

18. http://www.barralmjorge.com.br/pagina.php?id=1478

19. ESCRITÓRIO BRASÍLIA
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