How might global energy systems be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development?

1. Energy for All in the Anthropocene:
A Shared Development Agenda
Preliminary Findings
Charles Heaps, Ph. D.
Director, SEI US Center
www.sei-international.org and www.sei-us.org
charlie.heaps@sei-us.org
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2. Objectives
• Explores how global energy systems might
be reconfigured to address sustainability
whilst also providing meaningful
development.
• Goes beyond basic energy access to
instead explore sustainable energy for all at
levels that can underpin economic activity
consistent with at least middle income levels
in all countries.
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3. Reasons for Concern
Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)

4. Three Scenarios
• Baseline (BAS)
Likely global trends: assumes major efforts to tackle climate
change will not materialize.
• Basic Energy Access (BEA)
Similar economic trends to BAS + major efforts to mitigate
climate change + consistent with provision of basic energy
access for all by 2050 (without additional deviation in average
incomes vs. BAS).
• Shared Development Agenda (SDA)
Builds upon BEA scenario. Assumes faster growth in the
poorest regions so that avg. Incomes reach at least $10,000
PPP by 2050. Balanced by slower growth in richest regions.
Overall global GDP is similar to BEA.

5. More Equitable Income Distribution
(2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)
Baseline SDA
SDA requires sustained growth rates of between 8% and 9% per year in Africa
until 2050. Similar to rates seen in most rapidly growing African countries now.
Baseline already assumes rapid economic development. Additional growth over
and above baseline amounts to between 0.6% and 1.4% per year.

6. More Equitable Income Distribution
(2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)
2010 2050 Baseline 2050 Shared Development

7. Improved Income Distribution in SDA
• Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic
participation improve and countries become better governed.
GINI Analysis Credit: Eric Kemp-Benedict, SEI

8. Poverty Levels in BEA vs. SDA

9. Cumulative Emissions
Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2
Baseline (97% chance exceeding 2°C) 2,436
50% Chance of 2°C 1,440
SDA (60% Chance of 2°C) 1,300
67% Chance of 2°C 1,169
Already Emitted (2000-2012): 406 GT CO2

10. CO2 Emissions reductions:
BEA vs. Baseline

11. SDA: Primary Energy Compared to
Sustainable Resource Base
Primary Requirements (EJ) Sustainable
1990 2010 2030 2050 Resource Base (EJ)
Coal 85 132 108 33 n/a
Oil 139 176 121 36 n/a
Natural Gas 71 111 100 55 n/a
Nuclear 26 31 52 81 n/a
Geothermal 1 2 12 12 1-12
Hydro 7 11 23 25 49-80
Solar 0 2 19 50 7-285
Wind - 1 31 56 28-134
Biomass 33 47 63 89 78-139
Total 329 467 467 348
Sources: SEI, Global Energy Assessment (resources)

12. SDA: Evolution of
Energy Demand in 3 Regions
EJ

13. Required Energy Intensity Declines:
Selected Scenarios
SEI Baseline
1.2
GEA Baseline
IEA ETP 2010 Baseline
Final Energy Intensity (2010=1)
1.0
Greenpeace Baseline
IEA WEO 2011 Current
Policies
0.8
IEA WEO 2011 450
IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map
0.6
GEA Efficiency
Greenpeace Energy
[Re]volution
0.4
SEI Shared Development
Agenda
SEI Basic Energy Access
0.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

14. Some Conclusions
• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, and
even 2°C likely to be insufficient for climate protection).
• Mitigation goals extremely challenging, but likely still
technically feasible if political will emerges.
– Requires significant climate action in all regions.
– Dramatic improvements in energy intensities (-2.8%/year) required:
probably requires technical measures and sufficiency measures.
– Up to 8900 GW of wind may be required by 2050! Requires building
248 GW per year (2015-2050 ) - 25 times recent global build rate!
• SDA has minimal additional impacts on overall energy use and
CO2 emissions compared to BEA. CO2 emissions increase by
4.3% in 2050 vs. BEA. Weigh increase against huge social
benefits and likelihood that greater equity is a necessary
precondition for concerted global climate action.