Delivered during the 11th National Congress of the Phil. Society of NSTP Educators and Implementers (PSNEI, Inc.) last April 10-12, 2013 in Davao City, Philippines.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
In the Purview of National Security
FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLO
Senior Consultant, NSC
Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OST

2. SCOPE
Preliminaries
International Consensus on Climate Change
Why Climate Change is a MAJOR NATIONAL
SECURITY ISSUE
Policy Environment for CCA & SD in the PHL
Opportunities for Local Action via NSTP/NRSC

3. Where I’m coming from…
I AM NOT A CLIMATOLOGIST.
Nor AM I A SCIENTIST.

4. Where I’m coming from…
As an Air Force officer, and pilot, for 9 years
WE DID HAVE EXTENSIVE EXPOSURE TO
METEOROLOGY.
As a Management Consultant since 2008,
My FOCUS has been on STRATEGY
MANAGEMENT.

5. Where I’m coming from…
And since 2010, I have been
SENIOR CONSULTANT to the National Security
Adviser / NSC.
From 2010 to 2011, I was involved in
drafting the country’s first-ever NATIONAL
SECURITY POLICY (NSP) since 1999.

6. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS
• The scientific opinion on climate change is
that the Earth's climate system is
unequivocally warming, and it is more than
90% certain that humans are causing most of
it through activities that increase
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, such as deforestation and
burning fossil fuels.
- Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

7. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS
• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in
January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their
conclusions were:
1. The global average surface temperature has
risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and
0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years.

8. Global Temperature Anomaly
1880-2010

9. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS
• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in
January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their
conclusions were:
1. The global average surface temperature has risen
0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C
per decade in the last 30 years.
2. There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years
is attributable to human activities, in particular
emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide
and methane.

10. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS
• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in
January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their
conclusions were:
3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the
warming will also continue, with temperatures
projected to increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between
1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature
increase will be increases in some types of
extreme weather and a projected sea level rise.

11. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS
 No scientific body of national or
international standing has pushed forward
any formal opinion dissenting from any of
these three main points.

12. World Economic Forum
Global Risks Report 2013
• The World Economic Forum is an independent
international organization committed to improving the
state of the world by engaging business, political,
academic and other leaders of society to shape global,
regional and industry agendas.
• Global Risks 2013 report is based on an extensive survey
of over 1,000 experts worldwide. The report – now in
its eighth edition (since 2006) – serves to orient and
inform decision-makers as they seek to make sense of
an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.

13. WEF’s Global Risks Map 2013

14. 2011 Economic Losses Related to Selected
Natural Catastrophes

15. World Economic Forum
Global Risks Report 2013
• Economic and environmental systems are
simultaneously under stress worldwide, and this is
testing resilience at the global and national levels.
• Meanwhile, the impact of climate change is more
evident as temperature rises and more frequent
extreme weather events loom on the horizon.

16. World Economic Forum
Global Risks Report 2013
• The 2013 report identified the failure of climate change
adaptation and rising greenhouse gas emissions as
among those global risks considered to be the most
likely to materialize within a decade. Compared to last
year’s survey, the failure to adapt to climate change
replaced rising greenhouse gas emissions as the most
systemically critical.
• This change in the data mirrors a wider shift in the
conversation on the environment from the question of
whether our climate is changing to the questions of “by
how much” and “how quickly”.

17. U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025

18. U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025
“…A lack of national leadership in tackling climate
change further damages America’s international
standing as it fails to lead by example. The charge that the
current US policy is short-sighted and disconnected from
the scientific evidence means that America is sowing the
seeds for more environmental and economic damage in
the future.”

19. U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025
“..But in a world living on borrowed time, there is no
sense of urgency associated with the problem of climate
change, except for those most likely to feel its effects.”
- Global Scenarios to 2025, U.S. National Intelligence Council

20. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
• The United Nations (UN) Report of the Secretary
General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges
and Change 2004, “A More Secured World: Our
Shared Responsibility,” defined six clusters of
threats with which the world must be concerned
with for the 21st century, foremost among them:
Economic and social threats, including
poverty, infectious disease and environmental
degradation.

21. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
The United Nations (UN) Report of the Secretary
General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and
Change 2004, “A More Secured World: Our Shared
Responsibility” - 5 of 6 other clusters of threats:
Inter-State conflict
Internal conflict, including civil war, genocide and
other large-scale atrocities
Nuclear, radiological, chemical and biological
weapons
Terrorism
Transnational organized crime

22. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
In defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty,
infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UN
said that:
“Environmental degradation has enhanced the
destructive potential of natural disasters and in
some cases hastened their occurrence. The dramatic
increase in major disasters witnessed in the last 50
years provides worrying evidence of this trend… “

23. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
In defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty,
infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UN
said that:
“.. More than two billion people were affected by
such disasters in the last decade, and in the same
period the economic toll surpassed that of the
previous four decades combined. If climate change
produces more acute flooding, heat waves,
droughts and storms, this pace may accelerate.”

24. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
 Poverty, infectious disease, environmental
degradation and war feed one another in a deadly
cycle.
 Disease and poverty, in turn, are connected to
environmental degradation; climate change
exacerbates the occurrence of such infectious
disease as malaria and dengue fever.
 Environmental stress, caused by large populations
and shortages of land and other natural resources,
can contribute to civil violence.

25. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
Poverty ( as measured
by per capita gross
domestic product
(GDP)) is strongly
associated with the
outbreak of civil war

26. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY

27. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY

28. The NSP 2011-2016
• It is an open-source document, available for
download from our Official Gazette at:
http://www.gov.ph/2011/08/18/national-security-
policy-2011-2016/
• In it, the NSP posits that: “Climate change is
expected to hit developing countries the hardest.
Its effects – higher temperatures, changes in
precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, more
frequent weather-related disasters, pose risks to
agriculture, food and water supplies…”

29. NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
& NATIONAL SECURITY
• (cont’d): “.. At stake are the Philippines’ recent
gains in the fight against poverty, hunger and
disease, and in protecting the lives and
livelihood of our people.”

30. CCA & SD in the Philippines
• After the first meeting of the UN Conference
on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in
1992 (Rio 1992), the PHL gov’t. established
the PCSD under NEDA.
• FVR’s “Philippines 2000” strategic plan was
heavily influenced by Rio 21.
• Succeeding versions of the MTPDP (now PDP)
have incorporated SD as a concept and basis
for action plans

31. CCA & SD in the Philippines
• In 2009, PHL passed RA 9729 or the Climate
Change Act, leading to creation of Climate
Change Commission and adoption of National
Framework Strategy on Climate Change.
• In 2012, RA 10174 was passed, amending RA
9729 and setting up a Php 1 billion People’s
Survival Fund (PSF) annually to implement local
climate change action plans and make
communities more resilient to climate-induced
disasters.

32. CCA & SD in the Philippines
• Relatedly, PHL also passed RA 10121 or the
“Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Act of 2010,” abolishing the NDCC
and reconstituting it into a NDRRMC.
• This law also recognized the critical effects of
climate change on disasters and calamities in
the country, and called for a “Community-Based
Disaster Risk Reduction Management”
(CBDRRM) system

33. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?

34. The PCSD’s Agenda 21 recognizes the
importance of raising our citizens’ civic-
mindedness – their ability for good
citizenship – in promoting SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT.

35. From Agenda 21 (Rio 1992)
Children
and
Youth
Indigenous
Women People
Non-
Farmers Governmental
Organizations
Major
Groups
Scientific and Local
Technological Authorities
Community
Business
Workers and
and Trade Unions
Industry

36. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21:
GOAL:
Making sustainable development a way of life for civil
society
STRATEGY:
Integrating SD principles into people’s values and
lifestyles
STRATEGY OWNER:
PCSD-Civil Society counterpart

37. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:
1.Pushing for the integration of SD principles
and parameters into the education curricula at
all levels
• Move towards the Integration of SD modules
into the business and allied curricula in all
schools, colleges and universities

38. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:
2. Harnessing the power of media, academe, and
church-based organizations by establishing
partnerships and coalitions in implementing SD
programs and projects
3. Coordinating the development of a living sustainable
community model

39. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:
4. Linking up with academe and other major groups
on reviewing all relevant laws for consistency
with SD
5. Defining a transparent operational framework and
plan for wider civil society engagement in SD efforts,
such as the youth and other major groups

40. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
Study, review and give inputs to:
1) The Climate Change Commission’s National Strategy
Framework for Climate Change
2) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Plan
3) The ACTION PLANS on Climate Change of DILG,
DENR, Dept. of Agriculture
4) Or even the National Security Policy, and others

41. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
Agencies for potential tie ups:
a. DENR (for watersheds, mangrove areas,
mining area communities)
b. Climate Change Commission
c. Office of Civil Defense, DND
d. Municipal/City, Provincial and Regional
DRMMC's

42. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
Focus areas for action:
1. Watersheds
2. Mangroves
3. Coastal living communities
4. Urban living communities along river
banks, canals and esteros

43. Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?
Focus areas for action:
5. Communities living within mining areas
6. Typhoon-proofing of houses and school
buildings
7. Organizing school clubs that promote
climate change awareness, sustainable
development and disaster and risk mitigation
and preparedness

44. As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point
leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say:
“…As leaders, you have a choice: You can make
assumptions about the next generation or you
can invest in them the way that others have
invested in you.”

45. As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point
leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say:
“To truly guide and develop the younger
generation, we need to practice
transformational and authentic leadership.”

46. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
In the Purview of National Security
THANK YOU!
FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLO
Senior Consultant, NSC
Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OST