Can we expect as cataclysmic a power-shift in our industry as the US retail business experienced in the last century? This presentation uses the historical analogy of the rise of the supermarket in the post-automobile world to inform us about a possible future of the games industry. How did the technological revolution of the motor car create an increase in convenience and a reduction of the quality of the shopping experience for the average American, and how did that shift change the retail landscape in the US? How can we apply this and similar technology-driven business revolutions to our own rapidly changing industry as we react to the technological revolution of the internet?
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
1. Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of Gaming
Ben Cousins, EA
Andreas Gursky – 99 Cent (1999)
2. Generic Personal Opinion
Disclaimer
The personal opinions of the presenter
expressed during this talk do not necessarily
state or reflect those of Electronic Arts and
should not be interpreted in any way as
representing current or future policies of that
organization.
Any attempt to reproduce opinions expressed
during this talk as representative of Electronic
Arts will be met by snorting disdain, elitist
high-minded mocking and pedantic petty
corrections.
9. FAIL
‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben
Cousins, E3 2006
10. ”Future of games is :-
• User Created Content
• Data in the cloud, not
local
• Simple interfaces
• Mass market content
• Social Networking
• Hyperlinks
• Low system specs
• Persistence, levelling”
– Ben Cousins, Nordic
Game 2007
11. ”Future of games is :-
• User Created Content
• Data in the cloud, not
local
• Simple interfaces
• Mass market content
• Social Networking
• Hyperlinks
• Low system specs
• Persistence, levelling”
– Ben Cousins, Nordic
Game 2007
33. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
inconvenient experience
• A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
• Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice
and easy access to products
• Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high
quality expectations that would keep them paying the
high prices
• The new business model grew exponentially and took
over
34. The Internet and the Videogame
Tim Berners-Lee‟s first ever WWW server at CERN
43. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
inconvenient experience
• A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
• Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice
and easy access to products
• Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high
quality expectations that would keep them paying the
high prices
• The new business model grew exponentially and took
over
44. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
inconvenient experience
45. • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
46. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
Travian Halo Wars
Metin 2 Assassin's
Creed 2
Combat Modern
Arms Warfare 2
47. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
Online Consumer
Lower quality
distribution price trends
expectations
cost falling to zero
48. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
Quality less
Infinite shelf Less need to
important to
space/time ‘be noticed’
differentiate
49. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
convenience, cheaper consumer experience
Entry price Attention Higher
zero span shorter convenience
55. • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice
and easy access to products
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63. • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high
quality expectations that would keep them paying the
high prices
"Social games, social network integration,
mobile and portable games, a few you're
hearing a lot about today, they're
interesting and present brand
development and marketing
opportunities,”
“[But] they remain characterized by
unproven business models, a lot of clutter,
and relatively low barriers to entry,”
64. • The new business model grew exponentially and took
over
65.
66. Firefox
Elite
vs
Paradroid
Gauntlet
Forbidden Forest Operation Wolf
68. Arcade Home
Commodore 64
Space Harrier
Outrun
Nintendo NES
69. House of the Dead
£0.50 = 10 minutes
Cost per hour = £3
Tomb Raider
£40 = 25 hours
Cost per hour = £1.60
70.
71. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures
NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue
$6 billion $13.5 billion
72. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures
NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue
$6 billion $13.5 billion
Console software, hardware
Portable software, hardware
PC software
73. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures
NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue
$6 billion $13.5 billion
Air Hockey Console software, hardware
Bulk Vending Portable software, hardware
Cigarette Vending PC software
Countertops/Touch Screens
Cranes
8-Line Games
Electronic Darts
Foosball
Full Line Vending
General Business
Jukeboxes
Kiddie Rides
Pinballs
Pool Tables
Redemption/Novelty
Rotaries
Shuffleboards
Video Games
Video Poker
74.
75. Further reading
The Innovator‟s Dilemma - Clayton M.
Christensen
Free – Chris Anderson
Trade-Off – Kevin Maney
bcousins@ea.com