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1 johan van overtveldt the long shadow of the euro
- 1. THE EUROCRISIS IN PERSPECTIVE JOHAN VAN OVERTVELDT March 2012 1
- 2. DYNAMICS OF THE FOLLOW-UP CRISIS FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008-2009 RISK HIGH AVERSION INDEBTNESS UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION IN AGGREGATE DEMAND RECESSION 2
- 3. DYNAMICS OF THE FOLLOW-UP CRISIS FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008-2009 RISK HIGH “NEW” AVERSION INDEBTNESS THREATS UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION IN AGGREGATE DEMAND RECESSION 3
- 4. LARGEST THREAT EUROCRISIS 4
- 5. CRISIS IN 4D EUROZONE: STRUCTURAL FAULTS COMPETITIVENESS SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS CRISIS BANKING CRISIS 5
- 6. I. STRUCTURAL FAULTS • POLITICAL UNION (incl. transfers) SECOND BEST ! • FLEXIBLE LABOUR MARKETS 6
- 7. II. SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS 7
- 8. THE FISCAL CRISIS EXPLICIT IMPLICIT ONE-OFF % 2010 GDP DEBT + DEBT = TOTAL “SHOCK” 1 Italy 118,4 27,6 146,0 2,4 2 Germany 83,2 109,4 192,6 4,0 3 Finland 48,3 146,9 195,2 2,7 4 Austria 71,8 225,9 297,7 4,8 5 France 82,3 255,2 337,5 4,3 6 Portugal 93,3 265,5 358,8 6,5 7 Belgium 96,2 329,8 426,0 5,3 8 Netherlands 62,9 431,8 494,6 8,1 9 Spain 61,0 487,5 548,5 7,0 10 Greece 144,9 872,0 1 016,9 17,6 11 Luxembourg 19,1 1 096,5 1 115,6 12,0 12 Ireland 92,5 1 404,7 1 497,2 10,4 Source: Raffelhüschen & Moog 8
- 9. III. BANKING CRISIS • SHORTAGE OF CAPITAL EBA 115 mia € “PRIVATE ESTIMATES” 200 - 400 mia € • PERVERS MECHANISM (9 %) • ECB 9
- 10. IV. COMPETITIVENESS 10
- 11. UNIT LABOUR COSTS 2000 = 100 Germany Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Source: Deutsche Bank 11
- 12. CURRENT ACCOUNT (in % GDP) 10 8 6 4 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 Source: OESO 12
- 13. CONCLUSION • ACUTE CRISIS TURNS INTO A CHRONIC CRISIS WITH HICKUPS – elections – downgrades – Germany • EXIT GREECE (& PORTUGAL) 13
- 14. GERMANY UNEASY MARRIAGE WITH € - UNDER VALUED € + - EXTREMELY LOW FINANCING COST - BUDGETARY COST - - FINANCIAL STABILITY (ECB) 14
- 15. GREECE THE COUNTRY IS IN DEPRESSION - CUMULATIVE DROP IN GDP BY END 2012: 15-20% OF GDP - UNEMPLOYMENT ABOVE 20% - ESCALATING DEFICITS & DEBT - COST FOR SOCIETY & DEMOCRACY 15
- 16. GREECE SECOND RESCUE PACKAGE - DEBT : + 160% → 120% ?!? NO !!! - REINFORCEMENT OF RECESSION - UNREALISTIC PROCEEDS OF PRIVATIZATIONS - TWO CLASSES OF CREDITORS - CONTAGION ! 16
- 17. LOOK AT ARGENTINA !!! Source: Mark Weisbrot & Juan Antonio Montecino 17
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