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To Catch a Virus


 Barbara Macdonald | @BarbaraEMac | Barbara@GetWillet.com
Barbara
Waterloo, Ontario
+   ?
Who is going
to succeed?
Viral loops are core.
Willet
Social
WriteThat.Name
Each user more valuable an
an individual
Each user more valuable an
an individual
Viral loops are core.
Roelof Botha
“Forget about adding ‘viral’ to your marketing
 to-do list after your product is already on the
     market. You need to bake it into your
   business model from the very beginning.

   Viral isn’t something you can just make
happen. It has to be inherent in your product."
                                         paypal

                                         youtube
Not Marketing.

Not Advertising.
            Yes, marketing term, not talking about that, not a
            marketer, am an engineer



              •      branding = marketing - do
                     something cool, poeple will talk about
                     it, one -off

            action = Do something that’s REALLY easy
            to spread to other people, mechanism not
            content
Viral Loop

The steps a user goes through between
entering the site to inviting the next set of
                 new users

                                                                                    no mention of message or
                                                                                    content

                                                                                    simply an action

                                                                                    proactive


                http://andrewchenblog.com/2007/07/11/whats-your-viral-loop-understanding-the-engine-of-adoption/
Viral Loop
Viral Loop


E
Viral Loop


E                A
Viral Loop
             A   A   A

                     A
E                A   A
Viral Loop
             A   A   A

                     A
E                A   A




       S
Viral Loop
             A   A   A

                     A
E                A   A




       S
Adam Penenberg

“Simply by designing your product the right way, you
can build a billion-dollar business from scratch.

No advertising or marketing budget, no need for a
sales force, and venture capitalists will kill for the
chance to throw money at you.”



                               http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/125/nings-infinite-ambition.html
Resistance is futile.
Theory is simple.
Engineering is hard.
B.J. Fogg’s
    Mass
Interpersonal
 Persuasion
                http://www.bjfogg.com
Persuasive
Experience
       Experience created to change attiudes + behaours

       You need to make an impact to change passive bystanders
       into active users

       People’s attention is bombarded with many things

       hinges on social influence
What Makes Content Viral?




                                                  Experience created to
                                                  change attiudes, behaours




              http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/documents/research/virality.pdf
What Makes Content Viral?



         ?                                        Experience created to
                                                  change attiudes, behaours




              http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/documents/research/virality.pdf
What Do
People Share?
The “Social Core”
Why Do
People Share?

                http://www.bjfogg.com
“It’s so cool”   “Everyone else
   Principle       is doing it”
                    Principle



                      Experience created to
                      change attiudes, behaours
Automated
 Structure
             Digital technology
             structures the persuasive
             experience

             Repeatable
             automated
             Strucutred by computer
reducing friciton
Social
Distribution
               The persuasive experience
               is shared from one friend
               to
               another.

               FB = high-trust communit
               friends vs. strangers
Huge
Social
Graph
         : The persuasive
         experience can potentially
         reach
         millions of people
         connected through social
         ties or structured
         interactions.
25% of Internet traffic
      is social
750M Users
120 Friends
20% on FB
10% on Twitter
Technology doesn’t
     matter.
               25%

               paul revere
Let’s do an
experiment.
Hypothesis:

1-1 > 1-Many
www.wil.lt/fowa
Rapid
Cycle
        The persuasive experience
        can be distributed quickly
        from one
        person to another
Consider the Following ...
Consider the Following ...
Consider the Following ...


    E
Consider the Following ...


    E             A
Consider the Following ...


    E             A

           S
Consider the Following ...


    E             A

           S
Consider the Following ...
Consider the Following ...


E
Consider the Following ...


E           A1
Consider the Following ...


E           A1




      S
Consider the Following ...
                 A2        A4


E           A1        A3




      S
Consider the Following ...
                 A2        A4


E           A1        A3




      S
Consider the Following ...
                 A2        A4


E           A1        A3




      S
Consider the Following ...
                 A2        A4


E           A1        A3




      S
Consider the Following ...

          2 months




                     6 months
Consider the Following ...

          2 months


    E
                     6 months
Consider the Following ...

          2 months


    E                A
                     6 months
Consider the Following ...

          2 months


    E                A
                     6 months


            S
Consider the Following ...

          2 months


    E                A
                     6 months


            S
Short cycle
times are key.
                 internet has sped up viral
                 cycle
internet has sped up viral
cycle
internet has sped up viral
cycle
Users’ Momentum



                                                                    2007




     http://techcrunch.com/2007/05/09/tagged-turns-profitable-may-be-fastest-growing-social-network/
Measured
 Impact
            The effect of the
           persuasive experience is
           obser vable by
           users and creators
Viral Coefficient
k-Factor
average number of
                                                  additional users each
                                                  new user brings in




http://www.think-through.com/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Viral-Growth.jpg
X*Y
    X = ave # invites
Y = % invite acceptances                              Noah Kagan
                                                      improve x: figure out a way to
                                                      get them to send more invites.
                                                      Or return more times to be able
                                                      to invite more often.
                                                      1 increase y: work on ways
                                                           the recipient is more likely
                                                           to accept an invite.

                http://okdork.com/2008/04/22/learning-viral-the-basic-viral-model/
Phew ...
Persuasive
Experience
       Experience created to change attiudes + behaours

       You need to make an impact to change passive bystanders
       into active users

       People’s attention is bombarded with many things

       hinges on social influence
Automated
 Structure
             Digital technology
             structures the persuasive
             experience

             Repeatable
             automated
             Strucutred by computer
Social
Distribution
               The persuasive experience
               is shared from one friend
               to
               another.

               FB = high-trust
               community
Huge
Social
Graph
         : The persuasive
         experience can potentially
         reach
         millions of people
         connected through social
         ties or structured
         interactions.
Rapid
Cycle
        The persuasive experience
        can be distributed quickly
        from one
        person to another
Measured
 Impact
            The effect of the
           persuasive experience is
           obser vable by
           users and creators
Andrew Chen’s
     “Crucial”
Viral Loop Design
       Stages
       http://andrewchenblog.com/2009/09/23/5-crucial-stages-in-designing-your-viral-loop/
VIRAL LOOP
Strategize
      Develop your core stratgy around the loop

      How will a user move through your product and
      eventually invite their friends

      How does loop fit with core product

      what is your value prop

      Qualitative, predictive
Implement
      Rapid development of product and loop
      build both together

      focus on MVP

      keep code lean so you can iterate fast

      prototype

      keep in separate repos
Launch
    fast

    get traffic quickly

    successful companies have often been enbarrassed by
    their first product iteration
hypothesis & tools to be able to test them

   A/B test every aspect

   Quantitavie, data driven decisions

   Try:
   shrink funnel steps
   rearragne look and feel

   diferent value prop wordings




Optimize
   increase # invites

   tradeoff bet ween high growth potential and UX

   months

   Hot OR Not:

   Greg Tseng

   bland colours >> garish backgrounds
   make pages dl faster
   smiley emoticon in emails increased by 10%

   outcomes: 1 working 2 not working
Refine
    Only when working

    Polish, UX

    Become less embarrassed


    if too much virality, great time to run tests
Double
Phew ...
Viral loops are core.
Short cycle
times are key.
Needs tools to
measure & analyze.
Future is mobile.
Barbara
@BarbaraEMac
 Barbara@GetWillet.com




                         www.willetinc.com

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