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Developing insight from commercial data to support #Census2022
1. Developing insight from commercial
data to support #Census2022
BSPS Conference – September 2014
Andy Newing a.newing@soton.ac.uk
Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk (@dataknut)
Sustainable Energy Research Group
3. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
What we are trying to do: Census2022
UK Census 2011/2021 evolution
Timeliness & cost
Challenges
Finding new ways to deliver the Census – ‘Census-like’
Opportunities
New kinds of data
New kinds of social indicators - ‘Census-plus’
More frequently
3
4. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Smart metering
• Universal mandate
• Quasi-real time
• High temporal resolution
• Geo-coded
• Reveals actual behaviors
• Near 100% coverage
4
5. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Smart metering
5
Smart
Gas
Meter
Smart
Electricity
Meter
WAN
DCC
Utilities
and
Authorised
Third
Parties
3
In Home
Display(s)
Utility World
managed by the utility
Consumer World
managed by the consumer
2
1
Bills etc.
SMHAN
Smart Meter
Home Area Network
Comms
Hub
Consumer
Gateway(s)
•Appliances
•Consumer HAN
•Internet
•Services
•Future
See also http://www.gov.uk/government/policies/helping-households-to-cut-their-energy-bills/supporting-pages/smart-meters
6. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Electricity Load profiles
• Household composition & characteristics
• Ownership and use of appliances
• Habits and routines
6
7. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Generating area based household
statistics and indicators
Household Load Profiles
Infer household characteristics
Aggregate to small area geographies
9. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
UoS Energy Monitoring Study (UoS-E)
9
Smart meter-like household dataset
n=180
Repeated surveys:
characteristics, behaviors and attitudes
1 second level power import
Sample: October 2011
~ 500m records (1 second)
Cleaned & checked
Aggregated (mean power)
~ 250,000 records (half hourly)
10. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
10
Descriptive Analysis
1-2 persons vs 3+ Midweek: No children vs 1-2 vs 3+
Midweek: Respondent in
employment vs not
12. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Evening consumption factor (ECF)
Midweek (Tuesday – Thursday)
Ratio of mean 30
minute evening
peak power
import (4pm –
8pm) to off peak
power import
Ψ note: n= 5
12
ECF All households Employed Not in active
employment
All households 2.13 1.64
No Children 2.21 2.54 2.09
With Children 2.31 2.29 1.30Ψ
14. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Inferring household characteristics
Presumption of availability
via administrative sources
• Exploratory analysis suggests clear links but
poor explanatory/predictive power
• However … improvements in model fit are
encouraging given limitations of the dataset
15. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Inferring household characteristics
using classification
• Classification / cluster
Profile
analysis
Indicators
• Applied within electricity
sector to cluster households
based on their consumption
• Our interest is in underlying
characteristics
• Partitional clustering
technique (k-means)
Consumption
driven clusters
Link to
characteristics
of interest
19. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Realising the ‘added value’ from
domestic smart metering
19
Smart
Gas
Meter
Smart
Electricity
Meter
WAN
DCC
Utilities
and
Authorised
Third
Parties
3
In Home
Display(s)
Utility World
managed by the utility
Consumer World
managed by the consumer
2
1
Bills etc.
SMHAN
Smart Meter
Home Area Network
Comms
Hub
Consumer
Gateway(s)
•Appliances
•Consumer HAN
•Internet
•Services
•Future
See also http://www.gov.uk/government/policies/helping-households-to-cut-their-energy-bills/supporting-pages/smart-meters
20. Census2022: Extracting value from near real time …….. RGS Aug 2014
Thank you
http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/tag/census2022/
Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk (@dataknut)
Andy Newing a.newing@soton.ac.uk
20
Notes de l'éditeur
Be very clear here that the DCC will be a ‘gateway’ rather than a warehouse.
Re-enforce the point that discussions between the likes of ONS and other Govt. Depts. to ensure appropriate data access.