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The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context  30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2  emissions (Gt) CO 2  concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income,  population passing its peak in the middle of  this century  Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T  : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B  : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic  development  and unbroken population growth  Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and  but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population  culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society
Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change (  0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *
Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm
Climate change and spatial planning Source: Danish Television NEWS
Potential flooding year 2100
LUCIA -  L and- U se  C hange  I mpact  A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future  Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond
LUCIA User Interface Project management Scenario  management Log file
Multi-level structure ,[object Object],[object Object],National pressures Regional level Local level
Conceptual land-use model Suitability Accessibility Proximity Attractivity Micro level driving forces Socio-economic  changes Macro level driving forces Land-use (t + 1) Land-use (t) Zones Zones Zones Zones
Driving forces for land-use changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The model in mathematical terms ,[object Object],[object Object],P L (t+1) = C L 1 (t) * C L 2  * … C L n  *  ∑  ( w L i  * F L i  )   where  P = Transition potential C = Constraints (0  or  1) F = Factors (values between 0.0 and 1.0) w = individual weight factor between 0 and 1 L = land-use type
Land-use 1990 CORINE  1990 Building and Housing Register Protected Nature areas
Suitability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Suitability for  residential
Accessibility Low High Roads
Attractivity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Spatial planning zones Protected areas Urban zones Summer cottage  zones
Active, passive and static classes
Land-use scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Effect of sea level rise and storm surge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Future impacts of expected sea level rise
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object]
Further research ,[object Object],[object Object],THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! E-Mail :  [email_address] [email_address]

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Impact Of Climate Change Hansen

  • 1. The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context 30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2 emissions (Gt) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society
  • 5. Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change ( 0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *
  • 6. Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm
  • 7. Climate change and spatial planning Source: Danish Television NEWS
  • 9. LUCIA - L and- U se C hange I mpact A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond
  • 10. LUCIA User Interface Project management Scenario management Log file
  • 11.
  • 12. Conceptual land-use model Suitability Accessibility Proximity Attractivity Micro level driving forces Socio-economic changes Macro level driving forces Land-use (t + 1) Land-use (t) Zones Zones Zones Zones
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Land-use 1990 CORINE 1990 Building and Housing Register Protected Nature areas
  • 16.
  • 18.
  • 19. Spatial planning zones Protected areas Urban zones Summer cottage zones
  • 20. Active, passive and static classes
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Future impacts of expected sea level rise
  • 24.
  • 25.