IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
Warr 3rd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
1. 3rd IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting
21st – 22nd September 2003, Vienna
Center for the Management of Environmental and Social Responsibility (CMER)
INSEAD
Boulevard de Constance
Fontainebleau
77300
http://benjamin.warr.free.fr
Resource EXergy Services Forecasts
REXS-F
An economic forecasting model with quasi-logistic technical
progress
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2. Overview
– Reminder of REXS model
• Historical trends in resource use
– Energy Intensity
– Conversion Efficiency,
and economic output.
– Forecasts of output varying future trends of
• Energy Intensity
• Conversion Efficiency,
for JAPAN and the US
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3. Reminder of REXS economic output
module (ICT components optional)
Exe rgy
Labour Capital
Serv ice s
Linex
parameter a ICT Fraction of
Gross Output Capital
Linex
parameter b
ICT Capital
Linex Growth Rate
Parameter c
Cumulativ e
Production
Monetary Monetary
Output
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4. Common practice
Y t = Q ( A t , H t K t , G t L t , F t R t ),
Y t = A t (H t K t ) (G t L t ) (F t R t )
α β γ
Yt is output at time t, given by Q a function of,
• Kt , Lt , Rt inputs of capital, labour and natural
resource services.
• α, + β + γ = 1, (constant returns to scale assumption)
• At is total factor productivity
• Ht , Gt and Ft coefficients of factor quality
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5. The production function can be either CD, o
LINEX
L + U L
Yt = U expa 2 −
+ ab − 1
K U
For the US a = 0.12, b = 3.4 (2.7 for Japan)
Corresponds to Y = K0.38 L0.08 U 0.56
• At ‘total factor productivity’ is REMOVED
• Resources (Energy & Materials) replaced by
WORK
• Ft = energy-to-work conversion efficiency
• Factors ARE MUTUALLY DEPENDENT
• Empirical elasticities DO NOT EQUAL COST
SHARE
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6. The Virtuous Cycle driving Historical Growth
Product R&D Substitution of
Improvement Knowledge for Labour;
Capital; and Exergy
Process
Improvement
Substitution of
Exergy for Labour
Lower Limits to
and Capital
Costs of
INCREASED REVENUES Production
Increased Demand for
Final Goods and Services
Economies of Lower Prices of
Scale Materials &
Energy
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7. Output – validation of full model for the US
Simulated and empirical GDP, USA 1900-2000
25
simulated
empirical
20
normalised GDP (1900=1)
15
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
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8. Trend of “Dematerialisation” – a constraint
on future productivity ?
Simulated and empirical primary exergy intensity of output,
USA 1900-2000
1.2
1
0.8
r/y (1900=1)
0.6
0.4
0.2 empirical
simulated
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
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year
9. Aggregate conversion efficiencies have improved
significantly but are they slowing?
0,18
0,16
0,14
technical efficiency, f
0,12
0,1
0,08
0,06
empirical (U/R)"
0,04
bilogistic model
0,02
0
25 695 1486 2660 4677 7113
cumulative primary exergy production (eJ)
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Source Data: Ayres, Ayres and Warr, 2003
10. Could the future rate of technical efficiency
growth also be a constraint?
Rate of change of aggregate technical efficiency
of primary exergy conversion, USA 1900-2000
0.0025
0.002
rate of change
0.0015
0.001
0.0005
10 yr moving average
0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
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cumulative production (1900=1)
11. REXS Projections of future output
PROJECTIONS A
Altering the future rates of the energy
intensity of output
The average decay rate of the exergy intensity of
output (R/GDP) for the period 1900-1998 is 1.2%
The simulations involved increasing or decreasing
this parameter from 1998 onwards, while keeping
the values of all other parameters fixed.
PROJECTIONS B
The future growth rate of technical efficiency of
exergy conversion is uncertain. We tested 3
alternatives, keeping the ‘demat rate’ at 1.2%s
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12. Trends in technical efficiency for other
countries
Aggregate conversion efficiency of commercial
fuel exergy to useful work,1960-1998
0.30
0.25
0.20
percentage (%)
0.15
0.10
0.05
France Germany Japan UK US
0.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
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13. Possible trajectories for future technical efficiency (US)
P o s s ib le t r a je c to r ie s o f te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y w ith p r im a r y
e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n e x p e r ie n c e , U S 1 9 0 0 -2 0 5 0
0 .3 0 d o u b lin g o f e x p e r ie n c e
E m p ir ic a l tr e n d f r o m 1900
to 2 0 0 0 a n d c u m u la tiv e p r im a r y
e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n
h ig h 130%
0 .2 5
m id 120%
lo w 115%
0 .2 0
technical efficiency
0 .1 5
P la u s ib le
im p r o v e m e n t
o n c u rre n t
e ffic ie n c y o f
0 .1 0 e x e rg y
c o n v e r s io n
0 .0 5 S im u la tio n re s u lts u s in g
th e p la u s ib le tra je c to r ie s o f
te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y g ro w th
a s a fu n c tio n o f c u m u la tiv e
p r im a ry e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n
0 .0 0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
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14. Forecast Gross Output (GDP), US 2000-2050
Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100
45 Simulation results using HIGH
the plausible trajectories of Initial ~3% growth rate, for 130%
technical efficiency growth target increase in technical
as a function of cumulative efficiency.
33.75
primary exergy production
22.5 MID
Initial 1.5% growth rate for target
120% improvement in efficiency.
11.25
LOW
Shrinking economy at rate of
2 - 2.5% after 2010 if the target
0 technical efficiency is only 115%
1900 1918 1936 1954 1972 1990 2008 2026 2044
year
greater than the current.
GDP (1900=1)
empirical
low
mid
high
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15. Marginal productivity of exergy services (work)
Graph for Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services
1
Increasing marginal productivity of
exergy services as technological
progress increases.
0.85
Faster rate of marginal productivity
growth with slower rates
of technological progress.
0.7
Once the economy slows the
marginal productivity of capital
is negatively affected.
0.55
highest
0.4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Time (Year) Simulation results using
Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin04 the plausible trajectories of
Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin03 technical efficiency growth
Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin02 as a function of cumulative
Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin01
Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : Empirical Data primary exergy production
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16. Marginal productivity of capital
Graph for Marginal Productivity of Capital
0.04
Slower growth in the marginal
productivity of capital with faster
low and mid rates of technological productivity
growth
-0.02
-0.08
high
-0.14
-0.2
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Time (Year) Simulation results using
Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin04 the plausible trajectories of
Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin03 technical efficiency growth
Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin02 as a function of cumulative
Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin01
Marginal Productivity of Capital : Empirical Data primary exergy production
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17. Marginal productivity of labour
Graph for Marginal Productivity of Labour
0.6 Slower decrease in the marginal
productivity of labour with faster
rate of technological productivity
growth
0.45
0.3
0.15
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Time (Year) Simulation results using
the plausible trajectories of
Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin04
Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin03 technical efficiency growth
Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin02 as a function of cumulative
Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin01 primary exergy production
Marginal Productivity of Labour : Empirical Data
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18. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #1
dmat_sens
Empirical Data Empirical Data
25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95%
Primary Exergy Intensity of Output Gross Output
2 60
Exergy Intensity of Output Forecast GDP (1900 = 1)
(index 1900 = 1) for sensitivity tests varying
the "dematerialisation rate"
from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum
1.5 45
1 30
0.5 15
0 0
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Time (Year) Time (Year)
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19. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #2
Empirical Data Empirical Data
25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95%
Technical Efficiency of Primary Exergy Conversion Primary Exergy Demand
0.4 8
Technical Efficiency Primary Exergy Demand
for sensitivity tests varying (index, 1900=1)
the "dematerialisation rate"
0.3 6
from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum
0.2 4
0.1 2
0 0
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Time (Year) Time (Year)
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20. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #3
dmat_sens
Empirical Data Empirical Data
25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95%
Marginal Productivity of Labour Marginal Productivity of Capital
0.6 0.04
0.45 -0.02
0.3 -0.08
0.15 -0.14
MP of Labour MP of Capital
0 -0.2
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Time (Year) Time (Year)
dmat_sens
Empirical Data
"Dematerialisation" Sensitivity 25% 50% 75% 95%
Analysis Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services
1
MP of Exergy Services
Varying the "exergy intensity of output"
0.9
reduction rate between 1.2 and 1.5%,
using an exponential distribution 0.8
(order: 0, stretch: 0.015), using the
parameters for the high trajectory of 0.7
technical efficiency growth.
0.6
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Time (Year)
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21. Exergy Service Breakdown Comparison of Japan and US
F r a c tio n s o f fo s s il fu e l e x e r g y a p p a r e n t c o n s u m p tio n ,
Japan 1900-2000
100% E le c tric ity
r e m o v e la y e r s t h e n a d d P r im e m o v e r s
th e s e o n N o n -fu e l
90% s u c c e s s ively Heat
H e a t (U S )
E le c tric ity (U S )
80% P r im e m o v e r s ( U S )
N o n -fu e l (U S )
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
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22. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #1
Forecast Technical Efficiency REXS F US100
0.4
0.2
0
1960 1978 1996 2014 2032 2050
year
empirical
v1
v2
v3
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23. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #2
Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100
15
7.5
0
1960 1978 1996 2014 2032 2050
year
empirical
v2
v3
Gross Output : v3
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24. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #3
MP of labour (V2 - Slow technical efficiency growth)
1
0.5
0
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
year
MP of labour (V3 - Fast technical efficiency growth)
1
0.5
0
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
year
Labour
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Exergy Services