SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  24
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
3rd IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting
               21st – 22nd September 2003, Vienna
      Center for the Management of Environmental and Social Responsibility (CMER)
                                        INSEAD
                               Boulevard de Constance
                                     Fontainebleau
                                         77300
                              http://benjamin.warr.free.fr



        Resource EXergy Services Forecasts
                     REXS-F
  An economic forecasting model with quasi-logistic technical
                          progress




28/04/2003                                                                          1
Overview
     – Reminder of REXS model
             • Historical trends in resource use
                – Energy Intensity
                – Conversion Efficiency,
                                         and economic output.


     – Forecasts of output varying future trends of
             • Energy Intensity
             • Conversion Efficiency,
                          for JAPAN and the US


28/04/2003                                                      2
Reminder of REXS economic output
             module (ICT components optional)
               Exe rgy
                             Labour         Capital
              Serv ice s


          Linex
       parameter a                        ICT Fraction of
                           Gross Output      Capital
          Linex
       parameter b
                                                         ICT Capital
          Linex                                          Growth Rate
       Parameter c
                                           Cumulativ e
                                           Production
                           Monetary         Monetary
                            Output

28/04/2003                                                    3
Common practice

             Y t = Q ( A t , H t K t , G t L t , F t R t ),
             Y t = A t (H t K t ) (G t L t )             (F t R t )
                                      α              β               γ


             Yt is output at time t, given by Q a function of,
             • Kt , Lt , Rt inputs of capital, labour and natural
                resource services.
             • α, + β + γ = 1, (constant returns to scale assumption)
             • At is total factor productivity
             • Ht , Gt and Ft coefficients of factor quality

28/04/2003                                                       4
The production function can be either CD, o
        LINEX
                       L + U         L 
          Yt = U expa 2 − 
                                  + ab − 1
                           K       U     
          For the US a = 0.12, b = 3.4 (2.7 for Japan)
          Corresponds to Y = K0.38 L0.08 U 0.56
             • At ‘total factor productivity’ is REMOVED
             • Resources (Energy & Materials) replaced by
               WORK
             • Ft = energy-to-work conversion efficiency
             • Factors ARE MUTUALLY DEPENDENT
             • Empirical elasticities DO NOT EQUAL COST
               SHARE
28/04/2003                                             5
The Virtuous Cycle driving Historical Growth



                    Product                R&D Substitution of
                  Improvement             Knowledge for Labour;
                                           Capital; and Exergy
                      Process
                    Improvement
                                               Substitution of
                                              Exergy for Labour
                              Lower Limits to
                                                 and Capital
                                 Costs of
 INCREASED REVENUES             Production
 Increased Demand for
Final Goods and Services

                           Economies of   Lower Prices of
                               Scale        Materials &
                                              Energy

28/04/2003                                                        6
Output – validation of full model for the US
                                                      Simulated and empirical GDP, USA 1900-2000

                                       25

                                                  simulated

                                                  empirical
                                       20
             normalised GDP (1900=1)




                                       15




                                       10




                                       5




                                       0
                                        1900   1910   1920    1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000
                                                                            year
28/04/2003                                                                                                       7
Trend of “Dematerialisation” – a constraint
             on future productivity ?
                                       Simulated and empirical primary exergy intensity of output,
                                                            USA 1900-2000
                              1.2



                               1



                              0.8
               r/y (1900=1)




                              0.6



                              0.4



                              0.2             empirical

                                              simulated

                               0
                                1900   1910      1920     1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990
28/04/2003                                                                                             8
                                                                        year
Aggregate conversion efficiencies have improved
                   significantly but are they slowing?
                                   0,18

                                   0,16

                                   0,14
         technical efficiency, f




                                   0,12

                                    0,1

                                   0,08

                                   0,06
                                                                                     empirical (U/R)"
                                   0,04
                                                                                     bilogistic model
                                   0,02

                                     0
                                          25        695          1486         2660          4677            7113
                                                      cumulative primary exergy production (eJ)

28/04/2003                                                                                              9
                                          Source Data: Ayres, Ayres and Warr, 2003
Could the future rate of technical efficiency
             growth also be a constraint?
                                            Rate of change of aggregate technical efficiency
                                             of primary exergy conversion, USA 1900-2000

                                   0.0025



                                    0.002
                  rate of change




                                   0.0015



                                    0.001



                                   0.0005


                                                10 yr moving average
                                       0
                                        0.00      5.00   10.00    15.00   20.00    25.00   30.00   35.00
28/04/2003                                                                                                 10
                                                          cumulative production (1900=1)
REXS Projections of future output
         PROJECTIONS A
         Altering the future rates of the energy
         intensity of output
         The average decay rate of the exergy intensity of
         output (R/GDP) for the period 1900-1998 is 1.2%
         The simulations involved increasing or decreasing
         this parameter from 1998 onwards, while keeping
         the values of all other parameters fixed.
         PROJECTIONS B
         The future growth rate of technical efficiency of
         exergy conversion is uncertain. We tested 3
         alternatives, keeping the ‘demat rate’ at 1.2%s

28/04/2003                                              11
Trends in technical efficiency for other
             countries
                                   Aggregate conversion efficiency of commercial
                                       fuel exergy to useful work,1960-1998

                                0.30


                                0.25


                                0.20
               percentage (%)




                                0.15


                                0.10


                                0.05

                                          France      Germany            Japan     UK      US
                                0.00
                                   1960   1965     1970   1975    1980    1985   1990   1995
                                                                 year
28/04/2003                                                                                      12
Possible trajectories for future technical efficiency (US)
                                        P o s s ib le t r a je c to r ie s o f te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y w ith p r im a r y
                                                 e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n e x p e r ie n c e , U S 1 9 0 0 -2 0 5 0


                                    0 .3 0                                                    d o u b lin g o f e x p e r ie n c e
                                                 E m p ir ic a l tr e n d f r o m   1900
                                                 to 2 0 0 0                                   a n d c u m u la tiv e p r im a r y
                                                                                              e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n

                                                                                                  h ig h      130%
                                    0 .2 5
                                                                                                  m id        120%

                                                                                                  lo w        115%

                                    0 .2 0
             technical efficiency




                                    0 .1 5
                                                                                                              P la u s ib le
                                                                                                              im p r o v e m e n t
                                                                                                              o n c u rre n t
                                                                                                              e ffic ie n c y o f
                                    0 .1 0                                                                    e x e rg y
                                                                                                              c o n v e r s io n




                                    0 .0 5                                                   S im u la tio n re s u lts u s in g
                                                                                             th e p la u s ib le tra je c to r ie s o f
                                                                                             te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y g ro w th
                                                                                             a s a fu n c tio n o f c u m u la tiv e
                                                                                             p r im a ry e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n
                                    0 .0 0
                                             0          2000        4000        6000       8000        10000        12000       14000
28/04/2003                                                                            year                                                13
Forecast Gross Output (GDP), US 2000-2050
                       Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100
   45        Simulation results using                                       HIGH
             the plausible trajectories of                                  Initial ~3% growth rate, for 130%
             technical efficiency growth                                    target increase in technical
             as a function of cumulative                                    efficiency.
 33.75
             primary exergy production



  22.5                                                                      MID
                                                                            Initial 1.5% growth rate for target
                                                                            120% improvement in efficiency.

 11.25
                                                                            LOW
                                                                            Shrinking economy at rate of
                                                                            2 - 2.5% after 2010 if the target
     0                                                                      technical efficiency is only 115%
      1900      1918    1936    1954    1972    1990   2008   2026   2044
                                         year
                                                                            greater than the current.
GDP (1900=1)
  empirical
  low
  mid
  high



         28/04/2003                                                                                         14
Marginal productivity of exergy services (work)
           Graph for Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services
  1
                                                                                Increasing marginal productivity of
                                                                                exergy services as technological
                                                                                progress increases.
0.85
                                                                                Faster rate of marginal productivity
                                                                                growth with slower rates
                                                                                of technological progress.

 0.7
                                                                                Once the economy slows the
                                                                                marginal productivity of capital
                                                                                is negatively affected.

0.55



                                                               highest
 0.4
    1900     1920       1940       1960      1980       2000   2020      2040
                                       Time (Year)                                 Simulation results using
 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin04                                 the plausible trajectories of
 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin03                                 technical efficiency growth
 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin02                                 as a function of cumulative
 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin01
 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : Empirical Data                         primary exergy production


       28/04/2003                                                                                                  15
Marginal productivity of capital
                  Graph for Marginal Productivity of Capital
0.04
                                                                                Slower growth in the marginal
                                                                                productivity of capital with faster
                                                                low and mid     rates of technological productivity
                                                                                growth
-0.02




-0.08

                                                                  high

-0.14




 -0.2
     1900      1920       1940       1960     1980     2000    2020      2040
                                         Time (Year)                                Simulation results using
  Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin04                                         the plausible trajectories of
  Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin03                                         technical efficiency growth
  Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin02                                         as a function of cumulative
  Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin01
  Marginal Productivity of Capital : Empirical Data                                 primary exergy production


        28/04/2003                                                                                                  16
Marginal productivity of labour
                 Graph for Marginal Productivity of Labour
 0.6                                                                      Slower decrease in the marginal
                                                                          productivity of labour with faster
                                                                          rate of technological productivity
                                                                          growth
0.45




 0.3




0.15




   0
    1900     1920       1940       1960     1980     2000   2020   2040
                                       Time (Year)                              Simulation results using
                                                                                the plausible trajectories of
 Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin04
 Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin03                                       technical efficiency growth
 Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin02                                       as a function of cumulative
 Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin01                                       primary exergy production
 Marginal Productivity of Labour : Empirical Data



       28/04/2003                                                                                               17
US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #1
                                                             dmat_sens
Empirical Data                                               Empirical Data
25%       50%      75%       95%                             25%      50%      75%     95%
Primary Exergy Intensity of Output                           Gross Output
    2                                                           60
           Exergy Intensity of Output                                    Forecast GDP (1900 = 1)
           (index 1900 = 1)                                              for sensitivity tests varying
                                                                         the "dematerialisation rate"
                                                                         from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum
   1.5                                                          45




    1                                                           30




   0.5                                                          15




    0                                                            0
    1900            1938            1975       2013   2050        1900          1938         1975        2013   2050
                                 Time (Year)                                              Time (Year)




           28/04/2003                                                                                           18
US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #2
Empirical Data                                                    Empirical Data
25%       50%      75%      95%                                   25%       50%    75%     95%
Technical Efficiency of Primary Exergy Conversion                 Primary Exergy Demand
  0.4                                                                 8

            Technical Efficiency                                             Primary Exergy Demand
            for sensitivity tests varying                                    (index, 1900=1)
            the "dematerialisation rate"
  0.3                                                                 6
            from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum




  0.2                                                                 4




  0.1                                                                 2




    0                                                                 0
     1900           1938           1975             2013   2050       1900          1938        1975       2013    2050
                                Time (Year)                                                  Time (Year)




            28/04/2003                                                                                            19
US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #3
                                                                   dmat_sens
Empirical Data                                                     Empirical Data
25%       50%      75%       95%                                   25%       50%       75%       95%
Marginal Productivity of Labour                                    Marginal Productivity of Capital
  0.6                                                               0.04


 0.45                                                              -0.02



   0.3                                                             -0.08



 0.15                                                              -0.14

                                             MP of Labour                                                             MP of Capital
    0                                                                -0.2
     1900             1938            1975       2013       2050         1900             1938             1975           2013        2050
                                   Time (Year)                                                          Time (Year)
                                                                   dmat_sens
                                                                   Empirical Data
         "Dematerialisation" Sensitivity                           25%       50%       75%       95%
         Analysis                                                  Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services
                                                                       1

                                                                                                       MP of Exergy Services
         Varying the "exergy intensity of output"
                                                                      0.9
         reduction rate between 1.2 and 1.5%,
         using an exponential distribution                            0.8
         (order: 0, stretch: 0.015), using the
         parameters for the high trajectory of                        0.7
         technical efficiency growth.
                                                                      0.6
                                                                        1900              1938             1975           2013        2050
                                                                                                        Time (Year)




28/04/2003                                                                                                                                   20
Exergy Service Breakdown Comparison of Japan and US
                    F r a c tio n s o f fo s s il fu e l e x e r g y a p p a r e n t c o n s u m p tio n ,
                                                  Japan 1900-2000


             100%                                                             E le c tric ity
                     r e m o v e la y e r s t h e n a d d                     P r im e m o v e r s
                     th e s e o n                                             N o n -fu e l
             90%     s u c c e s s ively                                      Heat
                                                                              H e a t (U S )
                                                                              E le c tric ity (U S )
             80%                                                              P r im e m o v e r s ( U S )
                                                                              N o n -fu e l (U S )

             70%


             60%


             50%


             40%


             30%


             20%


             10%


28/04/2003    0%                                                                                             21
REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #1
         Forecast Technical Efficiency REXS F US100
  0.4



  0.2



     0
      1960     1978     1996          2014   2032   2050
                               year
  empirical
  v1
  v2
  v3



28/04/2003                                                 22
REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #2
               Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100
  15



 7.5



    0
     1960             1978   1996          2014   2032   2050
                                    year
  empirical
  v2
  v3
  Gross Output : v3



28/04/2003                                                      23
REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #3
             MP of labour (V2 - Slow technical efficiency growth)
              1



             0.5



              0
               1960    1975     1990   2005   2020      2035   2050
                                        year
              MP of labour (V3 - Fast technical efficiency growth)
              1



             0.5



              0
               1960    1975     1990   2005   2020    2035    2050
                                       year

              Labour
28/04/2003    Capital                                                 24
              Exergy Services

Contenu connexe

Similaire à Warr 3rd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting

Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406
Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406
Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406Benjamin Warr
 
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingBenjamin Warr
 
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance ToolEX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance ToolSIANI
 
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.Cisco Russia
 
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widman
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widmanSession2.2 infra wolfgang widman
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widmanSHAREPROJECT
 
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electric
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electricMr. satish kumar, schnieder electric
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electricRohan Pinto
 
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking thierry klein
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking   thierry kleinGreen Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking   thierry klein
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking thierry kleinBellLabs
 
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezk
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezkMET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezk
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezkIbrahim AboKhalil
 
Session 4 a chen et al discussion
Session 4 a chen et al   discussionSession 4 a chen et al   discussion
Session 4 a chen et al discussionIARIW 2014
 
Energy policy 20120725
Energy policy 20120725Energy policy 20120725
Energy policy 20120725yusangchang
 
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006Dmitry Tseitlin
 
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座meebox
 
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in BuildingsInfrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in BuildingsAlliance To Save Energy
 
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC
 
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...Eamon Keane
 

Similaire à Warr 3rd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting (20)

Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406
Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406
Warr Jussieu Presentation 240406
 
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
 
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance ToolEX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool
EX-ACT: EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool
 
La Smart Specialization Strategy per l'Europa 2020
La Smart Specialization Strategy per l'Europa 2020La Smart Specialization Strategy per l'Europa 2020
La Smart Specialization Strategy per l'Europa 2020
 
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.
Cloud-Computing and Energy Efficiency an holistic approach.
 
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widman
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widmanSession2.2 infra wolfgang widman
Session2.2 infra wolfgang widman
 
"Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Re...
"Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Re..."Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Re...
"Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) in the European Re...
 
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electric
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electricMr. satish kumar, schnieder electric
Mr. satish kumar, schnieder electric
 
Resd technologies-epri
Resd technologies-epriResd technologies-epri
Resd technologies-epri
 
Production 1
Production 1Production 1
Production 1
 
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking thierry klein
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking   thierry kleinGreen Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking   thierry klein
Green Telecom & IT Workshop: Ee routing and networking thierry klein
 
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezk
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezkMET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezk
MET 401 Chapter 10 -_economics_of_power_generation_-_a._rezk
 
Session 4 a chen et al discussion
Session 4 a chen et al   discussionSession 4 a chen et al   discussion
Session 4 a chen et al discussion
 
Mon, 10.45h luethje, boy global production and work in the it industry
Mon, 10.45h luethje, boy global production and work in the it industryMon, 10.45h luethje, boy global production and work in the it industry
Mon, 10.45h luethje, boy global production and work in the it industry
 
Energy policy 20120725
Energy policy 20120725Energy policy 20120725
Energy policy 20120725
 
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
 
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座
諾貝爾獎共同得主克拉克博士來台分享《全球能源創新》講座
 
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in BuildingsInfrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Infrastructure and Investment Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Buildings
 
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...
[Smart Grid Market Research] (Part 1 of 3 Part Series): The U.S. Smart Meter ...
 
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...
G. Schauer, "EV activities in Austria, EU and worldwide, Results from Fleet T...
 

Plus de Benjamin Warr

INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESS
INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESSINSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESS
INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESSBenjamin Warr
 
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004Benjamin Warr
 
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin Warr
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin WarrAccounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin Warr
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
 
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin Warr
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrInsead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin Warr
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
 
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureWarr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureBenjamin Warr
 
Analyse De Cycle De Vie Life Cycle Analysis
Analyse De Cycle De Vie   Life Cycle AnalysisAnalyse De Cycle De Vie   Life Cycle Analysis
Analyse De Cycle De Vie Life Cycle AnalysisBenjamin Warr
 
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine Warr
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine WarrLund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine Warr
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine WarrBenjamin Warr
 
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical Resources
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesEconomic Growth Models and the Role of Physical Resources
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesBenjamin Warr
 
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingBenjamin Warr
 
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingBenjamin Warr
 

Plus de Benjamin Warr (10)

INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESS
INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESSINSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESS
INSEAD Energy Network Our Vision and Action PRESS
 
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004
Benjamin Warr Thalwil Presentation 2004
 
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin Warr
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin WarrAccounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin Warr
Accounting for Growth, Robert Ayres & Benjamin Warr
 
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin Warr
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrInsead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin Warr
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin Warr
 
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureWarr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
 
Analyse De Cycle De Vie Life Cycle Analysis
Analyse De Cycle De Vie   Life Cycle AnalysisAnalyse De Cycle De Vie   Life Cycle Analysis
Analyse De Cycle De Vie Life Cycle Analysis
 
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine Warr
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine WarrLund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine Warr
Lund 29th October 2009 The Growth Engine Warr
 
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical Resources
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesEconomic Growth Models and the Role of Physical Resources
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical Resources
 
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 8th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
 
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical MeetingWarr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
Warr 7th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
 

Dernier

activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfJamie (Taka) Wang
 
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Will Schroeder
 
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxBuilding AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxUdaiappa Ramachandran
 
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarAI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarPrecisely
 
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDEADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDELiveplex
 
20230202 - Introduction to tis-py
20230202 - Introduction to tis-py20230202 - Introduction to tis-py
20230202 - Introduction to tis-pyJamie (Taka) Wang
 
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?IES VE
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdfPedro Manuel
 
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXVoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXTarek Kalaji
 
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdf
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdfIaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdf
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdfDaniel Santiago Silva Capera
 
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxIntroduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxMatsuo Lab
 
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a WebsiteCOMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Websitedgelyza
 
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioComparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioChristian Posta
 
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...DianaGray10
 
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdf
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdfMachine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdf
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdfAijun Zhang
 
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Brian Pichman
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesMd Hossain Ali
 
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IES VE
 

Dernier (20)

activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
 
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
 
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxBuilding AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
 
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarAI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
 
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDEADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
 
20230202 - Introduction to tis-py
20230202 - Introduction to tis-py20230202 - Introduction to tis-py
20230202 - Introduction to tis-py
 
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
 
201610817 - edge part1
201610817 - edge part1201610817 - edge part1
201610817 - edge part1
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
 
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXVoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
 
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdf
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdfIaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdf
IaC & GitOps in a Nutshell - a FridayInANuthshell Episode.pdf
 
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxIntroduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
 
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a WebsiteCOMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
 
20150722 - AGV
20150722 - AGV20150722 - AGV
20150722 - AGV
 
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioComparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
 
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...
Connector Corner: Extending LLM automation use cases with UiPath GenAI connec...
 
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdf
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdfMachine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdf
Machine Learning Model Validation (Aijun Zhang 2024).pdf
 
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
 
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
 

Warr 3rd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting

  • 1. 3rd IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting 21st – 22nd September 2003, Vienna Center for the Management of Environmental and Social Responsibility (CMER) INSEAD Boulevard de Constance Fontainebleau 77300 http://benjamin.warr.free.fr Resource EXergy Services Forecasts REXS-F An economic forecasting model with quasi-logistic technical progress 28/04/2003 1
  • 2. Overview – Reminder of REXS model • Historical trends in resource use – Energy Intensity – Conversion Efficiency, and economic output. – Forecasts of output varying future trends of • Energy Intensity • Conversion Efficiency, for JAPAN and the US 28/04/2003 2
  • 3. Reminder of REXS economic output module (ICT components optional) Exe rgy Labour Capital Serv ice s Linex parameter a ICT Fraction of Gross Output Capital Linex parameter b ICT Capital Linex Growth Rate Parameter c Cumulativ e Production Monetary Monetary Output 28/04/2003 3
  • 4. Common practice Y t = Q ( A t , H t K t , G t L t , F t R t ), Y t = A t (H t K t ) (G t L t ) (F t R t ) α β γ Yt is output at time t, given by Q a function of, • Kt , Lt , Rt inputs of capital, labour and natural resource services. • α, + β + γ = 1, (constant returns to scale assumption) • At is total factor productivity • Ht , Gt and Ft coefficients of factor quality 28/04/2003 4
  • 5. The production function can be either CD, o LINEX    L + U   L  Yt = U expa 2 −     + ab − 1    K   U  For the US a = 0.12, b = 3.4 (2.7 for Japan) Corresponds to Y = K0.38 L0.08 U 0.56 • At ‘total factor productivity’ is REMOVED • Resources (Energy & Materials) replaced by WORK • Ft = energy-to-work conversion efficiency • Factors ARE MUTUALLY DEPENDENT • Empirical elasticities DO NOT EQUAL COST SHARE 28/04/2003 5
  • 6. The Virtuous Cycle driving Historical Growth Product R&D Substitution of Improvement Knowledge for Labour; Capital; and Exergy Process Improvement Substitution of Exergy for Labour Lower Limits to and Capital Costs of INCREASED REVENUES Production Increased Demand for Final Goods and Services Economies of Lower Prices of Scale Materials & Energy 28/04/2003 6
  • 7. Output – validation of full model for the US Simulated and empirical GDP, USA 1900-2000 25 simulated empirical 20 normalised GDP (1900=1) 15 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 year 28/04/2003 7
  • 8. Trend of “Dematerialisation” – a constraint on future productivity ? Simulated and empirical primary exergy intensity of output, USA 1900-2000 1.2 1 0.8 r/y (1900=1) 0.6 0.4 0.2 empirical simulated 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 28/04/2003 8 year
  • 9. Aggregate conversion efficiencies have improved significantly but are they slowing? 0,18 0,16 0,14 technical efficiency, f 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 empirical (U/R)" 0,04 bilogistic model 0,02 0 25 695 1486 2660 4677 7113 cumulative primary exergy production (eJ) 28/04/2003 9 Source Data: Ayres, Ayres and Warr, 2003
  • 10. Could the future rate of technical efficiency growth also be a constraint? Rate of change of aggregate technical efficiency of primary exergy conversion, USA 1900-2000 0.0025 0.002 rate of change 0.0015 0.001 0.0005 10 yr moving average 0 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 28/04/2003 10 cumulative production (1900=1)
  • 11. REXS Projections of future output PROJECTIONS A Altering the future rates of the energy intensity of output The average decay rate of the exergy intensity of output (R/GDP) for the period 1900-1998 is 1.2% The simulations involved increasing or decreasing this parameter from 1998 onwards, while keeping the values of all other parameters fixed. PROJECTIONS B The future growth rate of technical efficiency of exergy conversion is uncertain. We tested 3 alternatives, keeping the ‘demat rate’ at 1.2%s 28/04/2003 11
  • 12. Trends in technical efficiency for other countries Aggregate conversion efficiency of commercial fuel exergy to useful work,1960-1998 0.30 0.25 0.20 percentage (%) 0.15 0.10 0.05 France Germany Japan UK US 0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year 28/04/2003 12
  • 13. Possible trajectories for future technical efficiency (US) P o s s ib le t r a je c to r ie s o f te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y w ith p r im a r y e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n e x p e r ie n c e , U S 1 9 0 0 -2 0 5 0 0 .3 0 d o u b lin g o f e x p e r ie n c e E m p ir ic a l tr e n d f r o m 1900 to 2 0 0 0 a n d c u m u la tiv e p r im a r y e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n h ig h 130% 0 .2 5 m id 120% lo w 115% 0 .2 0 technical efficiency 0 .1 5 P la u s ib le im p r o v e m e n t o n c u rre n t e ffic ie n c y o f 0 .1 0 e x e rg y c o n v e r s io n 0 .0 5 S im u la tio n re s u lts u s in g th e p la u s ib le tra je c to r ie s o f te c h n ic a l e ffic ie n c y g ro w th a s a fu n c tio n o f c u m u la tiv e p r im a ry e x e r g y p r o d u c tio n 0 .0 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 28/04/2003 year 13
  • 14. Forecast Gross Output (GDP), US 2000-2050 Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100 45 Simulation results using HIGH the plausible trajectories of Initial ~3% growth rate, for 130% technical efficiency growth target increase in technical as a function of cumulative efficiency. 33.75 primary exergy production 22.5 MID Initial 1.5% growth rate for target 120% improvement in efficiency. 11.25 LOW Shrinking economy at rate of 2 - 2.5% after 2010 if the target 0 technical efficiency is only 115% 1900 1918 1936 1954 1972 1990 2008 2026 2044 year greater than the current. GDP (1900=1) empirical low mid high 28/04/2003 14
  • 15. Marginal productivity of exergy services (work) Graph for Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services 1 Increasing marginal productivity of exergy services as technological progress increases. 0.85 Faster rate of marginal productivity growth with slower rates of technological progress. 0.7 Once the economy slows the marginal productivity of capital is negatively affected. 0.55 highest 0.4 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Time (Year) Simulation results using Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin04 the plausible trajectories of Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin03 technical efficiency growth Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin02 as a function of cumulative Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : flin01 Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services : Empirical Data primary exergy production 28/04/2003 15
  • 16. Marginal productivity of capital Graph for Marginal Productivity of Capital 0.04 Slower growth in the marginal productivity of capital with faster low and mid rates of technological productivity growth -0.02 -0.08 high -0.14 -0.2 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Time (Year) Simulation results using Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin04 the plausible trajectories of Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin03 technical efficiency growth Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin02 as a function of cumulative Marginal Productivity of Capital : flin01 Marginal Productivity of Capital : Empirical Data primary exergy production 28/04/2003 16
  • 17. Marginal productivity of labour Graph for Marginal Productivity of Labour 0.6 Slower decrease in the marginal productivity of labour with faster rate of technological productivity growth 0.45 0.3 0.15 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Time (Year) Simulation results using the plausible trajectories of Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin04 Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin03 technical efficiency growth Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin02 as a function of cumulative Marginal Productivity of Labour : flin01 primary exergy production Marginal Productivity of Labour : Empirical Data 28/04/2003 17
  • 18. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #1 dmat_sens Empirical Data Empirical Data 25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95% Primary Exergy Intensity of Output Gross Output 2 60 Exergy Intensity of Output Forecast GDP (1900 = 1) (index 1900 = 1) for sensitivity tests varying the "dematerialisation rate" from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum 1.5 45 1 30 0.5 15 0 0 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 Time (Year) Time (Year) 28/04/2003 18
  • 19. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #2 Empirical Data Empirical Data 25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95% Technical Efficiency of Primary Exergy Conversion Primary Exergy Demand 0.4 8 Technical Efficiency Primary Exergy Demand for sensitivity tests varying (index, 1900=1) the "dematerialisation rate" 0.3 6 from 1.2 to 1.5% per annum 0.2 4 0.1 2 0 0 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 Time (Year) Time (Year) 28/04/2003 19
  • 20. US “Dematerialisation” forecasts #3 dmat_sens Empirical Data Empirical Data 25% 50% 75% 95% 25% 50% 75% 95% Marginal Productivity of Labour Marginal Productivity of Capital 0.6 0.04 0.45 -0.02 0.3 -0.08 0.15 -0.14 MP of Labour MP of Capital 0 -0.2 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 Time (Year) Time (Year) dmat_sens Empirical Data "Dematerialisation" Sensitivity 25% 50% 75% 95% Analysis Marginal Productivity of Exergy Services 1 MP of Exergy Services Varying the "exergy intensity of output" 0.9 reduction rate between 1.2 and 1.5%, using an exponential distribution 0.8 (order: 0, stretch: 0.015), using the parameters for the high trajectory of 0.7 technical efficiency growth. 0.6 1900 1938 1975 2013 2050 Time (Year) 28/04/2003 20
  • 21. Exergy Service Breakdown Comparison of Japan and US F r a c tio n s o f fo s s il fu e l e x e r g y a p p a r e n t c o n s u m p tio n , Japan 1900-2000 100% E le c tric ity r e m o v e la y e r s t h e n a d d P r im e m o v e r s th e s e o n N o n -fu e l 90% s u c c e s s ively Heat H e a t (U S ) E le c tric ity (U S ) 80% P r im e m o v e r s ( U S ) N o n -fu e l (U S ) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 28/04/2003 0% 21
  • 22. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #1 Forecast Technical Efficiency REXS F US100 0.4 0.2 0 1960 1978 1996 2014 2032 2050 year empirical v1 v2 v3 28/04/2003 22
  • 23. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #2 Forecast Gross Output REXS F US100 15 7.5 0 1960 1978 1996 2014 2032 2050 year empirical v2 v3 Gross Output : v3 28/04/2003 23
  • 24. REXS-F: Japan Forecasts #3 MP of labour (V2 - Slow technical efficiency growth) 1 0.5 0 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 year MP of labour (V3 - Fast technical efficiency growth) 1 0.5 0 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 year Labour 28/04/2003 Capital 24 Exergy Services