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NOVELISTS INC. OCTOBER 8, 2010 Quantifying the impact of piracy on paid content sales
Overview of today’s talk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our point of view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Perhaps on the rare occasion that pursuing the right course demands an act of piracy, piracy itself can be the right course?” Governor Swann, in “ Pirates of the Caribbean” (itself pirated) Image courtesy of Wikipedia entry on Governor Weatherby Swann
“ Free” is not “new” … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why look at this topic now?
An evolving file-sharing landscape Centralized servers Decentralized Multiple sources Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009)
BitTorrent terms and tools Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009) Term Explanation Content files The original document (e.g., a movie, an e-book) Torrent files A collection of fragments (hashes) made from a content file Indexes A directory of the fragments (hashes) Trackers Services that point to users with one or more fragments Client software A web interface that uses the BitTorrent protocol Creates, searches, downloads or streams .torrent files Seeds Sources of .torrent fragments Leeches Recipients of .torrent fragments; can become seeds when they receive a complete file
How BitTorrent file sharing works Seeds Tracker Leeches Create a .torrent file Host an index Direct leeches to content Search for content Receive files from seeds Provide hashed content Done, leeches can seed uTorrent BitComet Azureus Client software Client software; search engines Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009)
Our research approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The current sample set Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009) O’Reilly Media Measuring the impact on front-list sales since fall 2008 Monitored BitTorrent sites Only PirateBay had more than a few of O’Reilly titles posted Tracked activity of seeds (uploads) and leeches (downloads) Thomas Nelson Began working with Thomas Nelson’s August 2009 To date, no fall 2009 titles have appeared on monitored sites Lag time for Thomas Nelson titles longer than for O’Reilly
What we have learned so far ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The number of seeds peaks quickly Source: Magellan research
Leeches peak quickly and then decline Source: Magellan research
Lag time before seeding varies Average = 19 weeks Source: Magellan research
Quantifying the impact of piracy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Because of different pub dates, the average time on sale for pirated content in this sample is shorter (35 weeks) than that for un-pirated content (47) weeks.  Comparisons at the end of the on-sale period are not reliable.
Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets +108%
Four-week rolling averages Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
Three useful cautions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Still, potentially a more nuanced model “ White” market “ Gray” market “ Back channel” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our continuing question: what impact does piracy have on sales?
Understanding piracy … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Start with the reader experience Sources:  www.booksprung.com ; www.medialoper.com
What can pirate activities reveal? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],None of this represents an argument against enforcement.  However, activity like this may represent “weak signals” that can help publishing compete now and in the future.
A pirate-site example Source: www.evanglibrary.org.uk
Legitimate alternatives exist Source: Evangelical Library web site
Source: quantcast.com
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Avoid conclusions using limited data Sources: Attributor.com; ereads.com;  W. Patry, Moral Panics and the Copyright Wars
Top 10 pirated titles (maybe) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: TorrentFreak, via Teleread (Paul Biba)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],DRM does not stop piracy
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],In a pirate’s words … Source: Richard Curtis, http://www.ereads.com/2010/02/wicked-wisdom-of-e-book-pirate.html
A call to action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An old(er) problem … ,[object Object],Source: Stewart Brand (1984)
For more information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Impact of piracy (Novelists Inc)

  • 1. NOVELISTS INC. OCTOBER 8, 2010 Quantifying the impact of piracy on paid content sales
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. “ Perhaps on the rare occasion that pursuing the right course demands an act of piracy, piracy itself can be the right course?” Governor Swann, in “ Pirates of the Caribbean” (itself pirated) Image courtesy of Wikipedia entry on Governor Weatherby Swann
  • 5.
  • 6. Why look at this topic now?
  • 7. An evolving file-sharing landscape Centralized servers Decentralized Multiple sources Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009)
  • 8. BitTorrent terms and tools Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009) Term Explanation Content files The original document (e.g., a movie, an e-book) Torrent files A collection of fragments (hashes) made from a content file Indexes A directory of the fragments (hashes) Trackers Services that point to users with one or more fragments Client software A web interface that uses the BitTorrent protocol Creates, searches, downloads or streams .torrent files Seeds Sources of .torrent fragments Leeches Recipients of .torrent fragments; can become seeds when they receive a complete file
  • 9. How BitTorrent file sharing works Seeds Tracker Leeches Create a .torrent file Host an index Direct leeches to content Search for content Receive files from seeds Provide hashed content Done, leeches can seed uTorrent BitComet Azureus Client software Client software; search engines Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009)
  • 10.
  • 11. The current sample set Source: Magellan research; “Impact of piracy” research paper (2009) O’Reilly Media Measuring the impact on front-list sales since fall 2008 Monitored BitTorrent sites Only PirateBay had more than a few of O’Reilly titles posted Tracked activity of seeds (uploads) and leeches (downloads) Thomas Nelson Began working with Thomas Nelson’s August 2009 To date, no fall 2009 titles have appeared on monitored sites Lag time for Thomas Nelson titles longer than for O’Reilly
  • 12.
  • 13. The number of seeds peaks quickly Source: Magellan research
  • 14. Leeches peak quickly and then decline Source: Magellan research
  • 15. Lag time before seeding varies Average = 19 weeks Source: Magellan research
  • 16.
  • 17. Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
  • 18. Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
  • 19. Average sales (weeks after pub date) Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets +108%
  • 20. Four-week rolling averages Average week at which seeded content first seen Unreliably small sample sets
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. A pirate-site example Source: www.evanglibrary.org.uk
  • 27. Legitimate alternatives exist Source: Evangelical Library web site
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.