Overall: A decrease in both gas and electricity prices drove the Bord Gáis Energy Index 1% lower for the month of December. The ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, fears about global economic growth in 2012 and a mild start to the winter across Ireland, the U.K. and Europe, all contributed to put downward pressure on gas and electricity prices. However, Ireland did not benefit fully from falls in fuel commodity prices as the euro weakened over the month.
The average price of Brent crude oil posted a record high in 2011 as daily oil demand hit a new high of 89 million barrels per day, as growing demand from the emerging market countries continued. Prices were also supported by concerns about supply from the Middle East and North Africa. As a result, the Bord Gáis Energy Index now stands at 143, which is 5% higher than in December 2010.
The following are the key trends recorded for the month of December:
Oil: The oil element of the Index was up 1% to 152. Due to the ongoing European sovereign debt concerns, the possibility of a European recession in 2012 and fears of further ratings downgrades. In US dollar terms, oil prices weakened in December. However, euro zone buyers of oil, such as Ireland, did not benefit fully from this fall as the euro weakened significantly versus the US dollar. Because of this, in euro terms, the cost of oil increased by 1%.
Natural Gas: The natural gas element of the Index was down 1% to 189. A mild start to the winter across Ireland, the U.K. and mainland Europe, depressed demand in December and has resulted in relatively high stock levels for this time of the year. This put downward pressure on prices over the month. Temperatures above seasonal norms in December reduced demand for gas-fired central heating and the holiday season also lead to the seasonal slowdown of many businesses and industry. The ongoing European sovereign debt crisis is also weighing on prices as it is now likely that Europe will burn less gas in 2012 as activity and production slows.
Coal: The coal element of the Index was up 2% to 145. In US dollar terms, coal prices fell in December as the world experienced an oversupply of coal. Economic uncertainties and a comparatively mild winter is restricting European demand. However, euro zone buyers of coal, such as Ireland, did not benefit fully from the fall in international coal prices as the euro weakened significantly versus the US dollar. Because of this, in euro terms, the cost of coal increased by 2% over the month.
Electricity: The electricity element of the Index was down 4% to 118. The average wholesale Irish electricity price for December closed 4% lower than its November equivalent as unseasonably mild weather and reduced demand for electricity pushed prices downwards. In addition, as the cost of gas and carbon reduced in the month, the cost of producing electricity fell. The availability of hydro and wind power put additional downward pressure on price
1. Bord Gáis Energy Index
DECEMBER 2011
G29346 BGE Energy Index Dec 2011 LK.indd 1 06/01/2012 11:49
2. Bord Gáis Energy Index
DECEMBER 2011
THE BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX CLOSES 5% HIGHER IN 2011 AS
AVERAGE OIL PRICE RECORDED A 150-YEAR HIGH
- INDEX DROPS 1% IN DECEMBER REFLECTING GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100) OVERALL SUMMARY:
The average price of Brent crude oil posted
Bord Gáis Energy Index 12 Month Rolling Average a record high in 2011 as daily oil demand hit a
180 new high of 89 million barrels per day, owing
primarily to growth from emerging market
countries. Prices were also supported by
concerns about supply from the Middle East
and North Africa. As a result, the Bord Gáis
140 Energy Index closed the year 5% higher.
Points
100
60
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
1 Mth -1% 3 Mth 6% 12 Mth 5%
From month to month, the Index for December recorded a 1% drop due to the ongoing European sovereign debt concerns,
fears about global economic growth in 2012 and a mild start to the winter across Ireland, Britain and Europe, all of which
put downward pressure on gas and electricity prices. However, Ireland did not benefit fully from falls in fuel commodity
prices as the euro weakened over the month. This meant that in euro terms, oil and coal prices in fact increased over
the month. Ominously, tensions between the West and Iran raised the possibility of military engagement and oil supply
disruptions as there is now a possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, a narrow passage through which 40%
of global oil supplies pass through.
Oil Index OIL
Due to the ongoing European sovereign
180 debt concerns, the possibility of a European
recession in 2012 and fears of further
ratings downgrades, in US dollar terms, oil
prices weakened in December. However,
euro zone buyers of oil, such as Ireland, did
140 not benefit fully from this fall as the euro
weakened significantly versus the US dollar.
Points
Because of this, in euro terms, the cost of oil
increased by 1%.
100 Prices were supported due to the escalation
in tensions between the West and Iran
over its nuclear programme. Military
engagement and the possibility of oil supply
60 disruptions supported oil prices somewhat.
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Furthermore, data from the US in December
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
reconfirmed the view that the economy
there is expanding moderately.
1 Mth 1% 3 Mth 8% 12 Mth 17%
G29346 BGE Energy Index Dec 2011 LK.indd 2 06/01/2012 11:49
3. Bord Gáis Energy Index
DECEMBER 2011
Natural Gas Index
250 NATURAL GAS
The average December Day-ahead
gas price was lower than its November
equivalent by 1%. Despite a brief period
200 where cold and stormy weather bore
down on the UK and some disruptions
Points
to UK gas supplies from Norway, the
150 December average Day-ahead gas price
softened. A mild start to the winter across
the British Isles and Europe, has resulted
in very healthy stock levels which also
100 applied downward pressure on prices.
Temperatures rose to above seasonal
50 norms in the second half of the month,
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
which reduced demand for gas-fired
Data Source: Spectron Group central heating and depressed prices. The
holiday season also resulted in reduced
demand from businesses and industry.
1 Mth -1% 3 Mth 5% 12 Mth -8% The ongoing European sovereign debt
crisis is also weighing on prices as it is now
likely that Europe will burn less gas in 2012
Coal Index as activity and production slows.
COAL
260
In US dollar terms, coal prices fell in
December as the world experiences an
oversupply of coal. Economic uncertainties
205 and a comparatively mild winter is
restricting European demand. Chinese
Southern ports are reportedly very well
Points
150 supplied with significant quantities of
Australian and South African coal, and
Chinese power companies are finding it
increasingly difficult to access credit to
95 purchase additional quantities. Indian
buyers are also absent from the market
as industrial production slows and a
40 weakening Indian rupee makes US dollar
priced oil more expensive.
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
However, euro zone buyers of coal, such as
Ireland, did not benefit fully from this fall as
1 Mth 2% 3 Mth -7% 12 Mth -9% the euro weakened significantly versus the
US dollar. Because of this, in euro terms,
the cost of coal increased by 2% over the
month.
Electricity Index
180
ELECTRICITY
The average wholesale Irish electricity
price for December closed 4% lower than
its November equivalent as unseasonably
mild weather and reduced demand for
140 electricity put downward pressure on
prices.
Points
In addition, as the cost of gas and carbon
became cheaper in the month, the cost of
100 producing electricity fell. The availability
of cheap hydro and wind power put
additional downward pressure on prices.
60 Wholesale prices could have fallen further
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 but for a number of outages of efficient
Data Source: SEMO
generators and an increased use of
expensive peaker units to supply short
bursts of electricity.
1 Mth -4% 3 Mth 1% 12 Mth -13%
G29346 BGE Energy Index Dec 2011 LK.indd 3 06/01/2012 11:49
4. Bord Gáis Energy Index
DECEMBER 2011
FX Rates
FX RATES
1.60 In December, the euro hit a 15 month low
versus the US Dollar. Despite hopes of a
1.40 solution to the euro zone crisis emerging
from the latest crunch EU summit, the
mood quickly soured and concerns again
1.20 mounted about the economic prospects
of European region and the future of its
currency.
1.00
Investors in turn favoured the safe
haven of the US Dollar and the currency
0.80 appreciated versus the euro in the month.
These concerns also lead to a weakening
of the euro versus the Pound sterling.
0.60 Some fuel commodities are priced in US
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Dollars (oil and coal) and in the Pound
sterling (gas).
1 Mth -4% 3 Mth -4% 12 Mth -3% EURUSD
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth -3% 12 Mth -3% EURGBP
MARKET OUTLOOK:
There are a number of strong influences that are putting downward pressure on fuel commodities such as the apparent
inability of European leaders to offer a solution to the crisis that convinces the markets, fears of a slowing global economy
in 2012 and mild weather (which is reducing the need for heating). Should the euro continue to weaken versus the US dollar,
euro zone buyers will not benefit fully from any price falls and would have to pay even more should prices increase. Given the
economic weakness within the region, a softening euro has the potential to inflate European energy costs.
These downward pressures are being counteracted somewhat however by the escalation of international tensions due to Iran’s
nuclear programme which may apply upward pressure to oil and consequently all fuel commodity prices should the situation
get more treatening in 2012.
RE-WEIGHTING OF BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX:
Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in
Ireland, released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall Oil 64.93%
energy consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil
consumption in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the
economic downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural Gas
gas and electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. 13.52%
An increase in the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of
coal in electricity generation was also observed. As a result the
Bord Gáis Energy Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest Electricity Coal
consumption data. This has had a minimal effect on the overall 18.40% 3.16%
shape of the Index, but may indicate future trends.
For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard - Aidan McLaughlin - 085 749 0484
Bord Gáis Energy - Christine Heffernan - 087 050 5555
Disclaimer:
The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may
not be correct, current, accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility
is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Eireann, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by any of the Parties or any of their respective
directors, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Each of the
Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does not and will not accept any liability in relation to the information
contained in this report. Bord Gáis Eireann reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or delete the information provided
in this report.
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