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“Economics of Biofuel
     Feedstock”

   Dr. Cole Gustafson
     April 10, 2012
Corn vs. Biofuel Feedstocks
• Economics of Corn Production
  – Market price
  – Low cost of production


• Feedstock Economics
  – Contract/Price
  – Sustainable
  – Lower GHG
  – Low Cost
  – Scaleable
North Dakota Projects
•   Wheat straw to biofuel
•   Energy beets
•   Flair gas to fertilizer
•   USDA feedstock market standards
•   Economics of corn stalk harvesting
Energy Beet Plant Design
•   20 mgy
•   Feedstock, 20 miles, 30,000 acres
•   70% thermal energy from feedstock
•   Capital investment $40 million w/ working
    capital
Energy Beet Industry
•   Phase I Development
    – 2009 APUC, $58,245, Initial Feasibility
    – 2009 REC, $330,000, Burn Test, Yield Trials,
      Juice Storage, Grower Education,
• Phase II
    – 2011 APUC, $73,317, EPA Advanced Biofuel
    – 2011 REC, $1,000,000, Frontend Processing,
      Yield Trials, Juice Storage, Promotion
• Phase III
    – Commercialization
2007 Energy Independence and Security Act

Year           Conventional   Advanced       Cellulosic Biofuel Biomass-based
               Biofuel        Biofuel                           Diesel

       2008          9.0

       2009         10.5           0.60                              0.5

       2010         12.0           0.95            0.10              0.7

       2011         12.6           1.35            0.25              0.8

       2012         13.2           2.00            0.50              1.0

       2013         13.8           2.75            1.00               *

       2014         14.4           3.75            1.75               *

   2015-2022        15.0         5.50-21.0      3.00-16.0             *
Biomass Contracts
• What, When, Where?
• Moisture
• Premiums/Discounts
  – Foreign matter (dirt)
  – Purity
  – Spoilage
Highly Variable Quality
Lower Than Expected Quantity
Logistics and Transportation
• Wheat straw
  biorefinery
• Is collection
  economically feasible?
Potential Wheat Straw Supply
•   1.16 million tons (bone dry)
•   10% moisture
•   Plant height 34.6”
•   Combine height 7.6”
•   Producers are willing to supply
•   Adequate time to harvest
Farm Focus Group
         Table 2.7. Reasons Why Participants Do Not Collect More Straw

Reason                            Percent Response      Number of Participants
Too distant to haul                           0.00%                         0
No market                                    38.89%                         7
Environmental concern                        11.11%                         2
Fertility loss                               50.00%                         9
Loss of wildlife habitat                      0.00%                         0
No time                                       0.00%                         0
Total                                       100.00%                        18
Farm Focus Group
Table 2.12. Price of Wheat Straw Participants Willing to Accept
   Participant Number                   Wheat Straw ($/ton)
   1                                               -
   2                                           35.00
   3                                           40.00
   4                                           30.00
   5                                           25.00
   6                                           20.00
   7                                           25.00
   8                                           50.00
   9                                           40.00
   10                                          50.00
   11                                          20.00
   12                                          30.00
   13                                          15.00
   14                                          15.00
   15                                          15.00
   16                                          50.00
   Average                                     30.67
Potential Constraints
1) Rotary Combines
2) Tenant vs. Land Owner
3) USDA/NRCS
Stover Harvest to Maintain Carbon

                 Continuous Corn     Corn Soybean Rotation

Grain   Stover   Plow      Chisel/      Plow      Chisel/
Yield                      No Till                No Till

Bu/ac    t/ac    t/ac       t/ac        t/ac        t/ac

103      2.2     0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0




                                                             Source: PRX 2010, Johnson 2006
156      3.3     0.0         1.0        0.0         0.0

200      4.5     1.1         2.1        0.0         0.9

259      5.6     2.2         3.2        0.0         2.1

312      6.7     3.3         4.3        0.9         3.2

363      7.8     4.4         5.4        2.1         4.3

415      8.9     5.5         6.6        3.2         5.4
Competition
• Who else is interested in biomass?
  – Livestock bedding
  – Livestock feed
  – Fertility
  – Ground Cover
  – ????
Questions?




        cole.gustafson@ndsu.edu
       (701) 231-7096

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Economics biofuel041012 gustafson

  • 1. “Economics of Biofuel Feedstock” Dr. Cole Gustafson April 10, 2012
  • 2. Corn vs. Biofuel Feedstocks • Economics of Corn Production – Market price – Low cost of production • Feedstock Economics – Contract/Price – Sustainable – Lower GHG – Low Cost – Scaleable
  • 3. North Dakota Projects • Wheat straw to biofuel • Energy beets • Flair gas to fertilizer • USDA feedstock market standards • Economics of corn stalk harvesting
  • 4. Energy Beet Plant Design • 20 mgy • Feedstock, 20 miles, 30,000 acres • 70% thermal energy from feedstock • Capital investment $40 million w/ working capital
  • 5. Energy Beet Industry • Phase I Development – 2009 APUC, $58,245, Initial Feasibility – 2009 REC, $330,000, Burn Test, Yield Trials, Juice Storage, Grower Education, • Phase II – 2011 APUC, $73,317, EPA Advanced Biofuel – 2011 REC, $1,000,000, Frontend Processing, Yield Trials, Juice Storage, Promotion • Phase III – Commercialization
  • 6. 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act Year Conventional Advanced Cellulosic Biofuel Biomass-based Biofuel Biofuel Diesel 2008 9.0 2009 10.5 0.60 0.5 2010 12.0 0.95 0.10 0.7 2011 12.6 1.35 0.25 0.8 2012 13.2 2.00 0.50 1.0 2013 13.8 2.75 1.00 * 2014 14.4 3.75 1.75 * 2015-2022 15.0 5.50-21.0 3.00-16.0 *
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Biomass Contracts • What, When, Where? • Moisture • Premiums/Discounts – Foreign matter (dirt) – Purity – Spoilage
  • 13. Logistics and Transportation • Wheat straw biorefinery • Is collection economically feasible?
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Potential Wheat Straw Supply • 1.16 million tons (bone dry) • 10% moisture • Plant height 34.6” • Combine height 7.6” • Producers are willing to supply • Adequate time to harvest
  • 19.
  • 20. Farm Focus Group Table 2.7. Reasons Why Participants Do Not Collect More Straw Reason Percent Response Number of Participants Too distant to haul 0.00% 0 No market 38.89% 7 Environmental concern 11.11% 2 Fertility loss 50.00% 9 Loss of wildlife habitat 0.00% 0 No time 0.00% 0 Total 100.00% 18
  • 21. Farm Focus Group Table 2.12. Price of Wheat Straw Participants Willing to Accept Participant Number Wheat Straw ($/ton) 1 - 2 35.00 3 40.00 4 30.00 5 25.00 6 20.00 7 25.00 8 50.00 9 40.00 10 50.00 11 20.00 12 30.00 13 15.00 14 15.00 15 15.00 16 50.00 Average 30.67
  • 22. Potential Constraints 1) Rotary Combines 2) Tenant vs. Land Owner 3) USDA/NRCS
  • 23. Stover Harvest to Maintain Carbon Continuous Corn Corn Soybean Rotation Grain Stover Plow Chisel/ Plow Chisel/ Yield No Till No Till Bu/ac t/ac t/ac t/ac t/ac t/ac 103 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: PRX 2010, Johnson 2006 156 3.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 200 4.5 1.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 259 5.6 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.1 312 6.7 3.3 4.3 0.9 3.2 363 7.8 4.4 5.4 2.1 4.3 415 8.9 5.5 6.6 3.2 5.4
  • 24. Competition • Who else is interested in biomass? – Livestock bedding – Livestock feed – Fertility – Ground Cover – ????
  • 25. Questions? cole.gustafson@ndsu.edu (701) 231-7096

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Copper wire
  2. 295g for beer in can, 120g for can
  3. July 16, 2009
  4. Great River Energy proposes to build a wheat straw biorefinery next to a 99mw combined heat power facility (Sandra will probably describe the project). GRE asked NDSU to conduct feasibility study of collecting wheat stovers.
  5. They pay farmer 10-15 for straw and then 35 to bale and haul, 8x13x100 = 40,000 need million