Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the Foundation for Science and Technology discussion on 'Cities of the future – science, innovation and city management', June 2013

1. Foresight Project
Future of Cities
Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

2. 2 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…”
Jane Jacobs
The death and life of great American cities
Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0©Amanda Orson

3. 3 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
The Changing Urban World
1950
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

4. 4 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
1980
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
The Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

5. 5 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
The Changing Urban WorldThe Changing Urban World
2010
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

6. 6 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
The Changing Urban World
2030
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

7. 7 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
The Changing Urban World
2050
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

8. 8 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
1950
And looking closer at Europe..
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

9. 9 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
1980
And looking closer at Europe..
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

10. 10 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
2010
And looking closer at Europe..
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

11. 11 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
2030
And looking closer at Europe..
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

12. 12 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
2050
And looking closer at Europe..
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

13. What is a City?
Physical components of cities include:
• Physical boundaries
• Population size
• Hinterland
• Natural infrastructure
• Built infrastructure
• Transport links to other cities &
countries
13 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al
arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph]
Data from Census 2001

14. 14 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
Cities emerge from the demand for
populations to interact and are about
people:
• Poverty and wealth
• Culture and diversity
• Social inclusion/exclusion
• Crime
• Demographics, e.g., ageing population
• Overlapping systems of governance
• Legal designation
More than infrastructure
Julian Mason / CC BY 2.0
Getty ImagesGene Hunt / CC BY 2.0
iStockphoto

15. Current Trends in the UK
15 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
London is outperforming the rest
of the UK economy.
Our largest cities lag behind
London in terms of their
performance – and lag behind
their European rivals in terms of
levels of GDP per capita
achieved.
Cities do not work in isolation –
the networks and interactions
between them are important.
Note: Regional GVA not adjusted for inflation
Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-trends/regional-economic-indicators/march-2013/sty---infographic-summary.html
Growth in output (nominal Gross Value Added) 2007-2011

16. 16
Future challenges and opportunities
Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
• Demography - Ageing population
• Economic competitiveness
• Governance
• Climate change
• Technology
• Sustainability – energy, waste,
resilience
• International competition
• Network of cities
Key Questions:
What are the key enablers of success
for different cities?
What are their most important
decisions in preparing for the future?
Source data: ONS (2010)
UK population change 1999-2009 by local authority

17. Foresight – Future of Cities Project
• Public policy is delivered via cities,
which are centres of innovation and
growth
• Foresight project will take a cross
government interdisciplinary
approach, building on existing work.
• Aim to provide a holistic
understanding of the challenges and
opportunities UK cities will face in the
future
• Seeking input in order to shape
project and focus outputs on most
important questions facing policy
makers
Flooding &
Coastal Defence
Land Use Futures
Sustainable
Energy & the Built
Environment
Examples of previous projects
17 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013

18. http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
iStockphoto

19. Foresight would like acknowledge UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis and specifically thank Pete Ferguson and
Robin Edwards for their support in developing this slide pack.
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material.
We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections
that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through enquiries@bis.gsi.gov.uk .
Foresight Project
Future of Cities
Presentation made to the Foundation for Science and Technology discussion on
Cities of the future – science, innovation and city management, June 2013
Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government