Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the EPSRC 'Manufacturing the Future' conference on 23 September 2014.

1. The Future of Manufacturing
EPSRC Manufacturing the Future
Conference - 23rd
September
Sir Mark Walport, the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor

2. 2
Manufacturing matters, now and for the future
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Absolute value: contribution to GDP of £139 billion in 2013
• Exports: 52% of UK exports in 2013 (£263 billion)
• R&D: 72-79% of total UK R&D spend 2001-2012
• Productivity: growth 4.6% p.a. (1980-2013), UK 3.1% p.a.
• Jobs: high skilled and well paid
• Resilience: supporting faster recovery from recession
Manufacturing is and must continue to be an essential part of
the UK economy.

3. 3
The recent history of manufacturing in UK
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• UK manufacturing is diverse
• Historical context
• Weak relative performance
• R&D expenditure
• Capital investment
• % global manufacturing
exports
• Strong relative performance
• Productivity
• Export intensity

4. 4
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th
September 2013
Emerging market opportunities
• Emergence of
BRICs and the
‘Next 11’
• Growing average
buying power
• Continued global
‘fragmentation’ of
the value chain
• Some ‘onshoring’
back to the UK

5. 1950
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban
population size.
5
30%
Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

6. 1980
6
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban
population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
40%
Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

7. 2010
7
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban
population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
52%
Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

8. 2030
8
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban
population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
61%
Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

9. 2050
9
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban
population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
72%
Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

10. 10
Sustainability Challenge – Climate Change
credit: Daily Mail
Credit: Adelaide
Advertiser

11. 11
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:
A Circular Economy
These trends will
lead to volatile
commodity prices,
necessitating a
‘circular economy’:
•Reuse,
•Remanufacturing,
•Recycling.

12. 12
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Packaging of services with products e.g. Rolls Royce
• Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM
• Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar
The Value Chain
Manufacturing is no longer just about ‘production’ – manufacturers
will increasingly make use of a wider ‘value chain’ to create revenue.

13. 13
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
More digital connections along value chains
Mass personalisation of low-cost
products, on demand
Distributed production: super
factories, local, home, mobile
Greater design freedom
Faster, more responsive and closer to customers
credit: stock photo credit: Mojo
credit: flightradar24.comcredit: Zaha Hadid
Architects

14. 14
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Robotics
Improving operational efficiencies.
credit: KUKA Systems GmbH (CC BY-SA 3.0) credit: Universal Robots

15. 15
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
The Internet of Things
Better energy management
The Internet of Things (IoT) has massive potential to
revolutionise manufacturing:
credit: Measure My Energy

16. 16
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
The Internet of Things
More connected supply chain
Source: Map for iPhone Glass

17. 17
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:
The Internet of Things
• To get the full benefits, the
system will need to allow
• ‘thing-to-thing’ authentication
• Secure remote access
The Internet of Things (IoT) also exposes manufacturing to
new challenges:
• Security
• Industrial espionage/sabotage
• Encryption needs to be
proportionate to the risk
credit:
Bloomberg/Getty
credit: stock photo

18. 18
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th
September 2013
High Performance Computing
Enables highly complex designs to be engineered cheaper and manufactured quicker
credit: stock photo
credit: TED.comcredit: stock photo

19. 19 The Age of Analytics, April 30th
2014
The Turing Institute
The Mission
1. To undertake research and
knowledge sharing in the key
disciplines of mathematics,
computer and data science
2. To develop networks between
leaders
3. To enable industry and academia
to work together on research with
practical applications
4. To provide advice to policy makers
on the wider implications of
research
5. To provide strategic oversight and
leadership
The vision
1. Promote the development
and use of advanced
mathematics, computer science
and algorithms for human benefit
2. Conduct first class research and
development
3. It will be a world leading
institute that will provide a fitting
memorial to Alan Turing
credit: Duane Wessels (CC BY-SA-NC 2.0)

20. 20
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th
September 2013
Advanced Materials
New materials, metals, super-
alloys and composites which are
able to withstand
•higher temperatures;
•greater pressures, and;
•higher radiation doses.
They are light and strong, and
therefore more efficient.
credit: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

21. We need to utilise the
whole of the Science
Landscape

22. 22
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:
Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers
• Strong demand for manufacturing workers – 800,000
jobs to fill in the years up to 2020.
• STEM skills will be
vital for majority of
these roles.
• However, due to the
increasing ‘value
chain’ people will
need a blend of
technical &
commercial ‘hybrid’
skills

23. 23
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
We will need to accommodate an older workforce
Looking ahead to 2050:
Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers
Human enhancement may support mental
performance and physical mobility, helping
counter the effect of ageing credit: Noonee

24. 24
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Better intelligence - beyond
measuring output from production
• Better targeting of support, using
the wider policy system
• Enhancing capability in evaluating
and coordinating policy
• Scaling up a number of existing
initiatives
• EPSRC Foresight Fellowships
As manufacturing evolves, policy makers will need new
approaches to ensure that the UK is a place where it thrives
What’s the role of Government?

25. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We
apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be
incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk.
@uksciencechief
www.gov.uk/go-science