3. Insert
Image
Here
Carl Kulo
BISG Making Information Pay Higher Ed Event
February 7, 2013
2
4. PubTrack Higher Ed: What is it?
• The “Go-To” source for data about U.S. College
Course material “sell through” and “adoption”.
•Used by over 100 clients
3
5. Where does the data come
from?
Course material P-O-S Adoption Demand
Tracks new and
Course Book Pre-order
used Point-of- Data collected in Use and wholesaler
Sample from over 3630 Instructor data
Sale Data on
represents ~60% bookstores, & data from over
Course Materials (FTE) of the US online e-tailers collected from 4200 stores
from 4-yr, 2-yr, Higher Ed market tied to over 2,500 college and
and For-Profit schools registrars
schools e-tailers
office
4
6. PubTrack HE Data Sources:
. o B&N
o Follett
Campus o Nebraska Books
Book o ~ 1,500 Independent campus stores
Stores
o Discipline level o B&NCollege.com
o ISBN tagging
Online oMBS Direct
Publisher o eCampus.com
o Returns Book
Files
o Sell-out Stores
PubTrack
Higher
Education
o Professor Profiles Course &
o Course codes Wholesalers
Department
o Carnegie Codes Demand Data o MBS
Information o Follett Demand
For-Profit
o Apollo Group-Axia College Institutions
o Apollo Group-Univ. of Phoenix (all)
o Laureate Education
o Corinthian College, Inc.
o ITT
o DeVry
5
7. What it is and What it isn’t….
• Primarily data comes through college bookstores
(including in-store and online)
• Tracks data that can be tied to a school
• Data from Amazon and other e-tailers (can’t be tied to
schools) and are not included
• Data on other alternate sources (e.g., student swaps,
etc) not included
• BISG Student Survey will give a holistic view of what
students are doing regarding course material
6
9. The “Big Picture”
. What can PubTrack Higher Ed tell us about
what American college students are buying
for their courses?
10. The College Textbook market levels off
Total Sales in Billions
$9.0
$8.0 $7.7 $7.4 $7.4
$7.3
$7.0 $6.3 $6.3
$6.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$-
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
9
11. New Textbook Prices Rising, but Used is
holding steady!
$90.00
$82.17
$80.00
$77.25
$73.85
$70.00 $69.95
$64.31
$61.71
$60.00 $60.47 $60.68
$58.89
$57.27 $56.98
$50.00 $50.74 Avg. New Price
$47.50
$46.34 Avg. Used Price
$40.00
$30.00
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
10
12. Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units – little
change over time
100%
90%
80%
70% 67% 66% 64% 66% 67% 67% 68%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 34% 34% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32%
10%
0%
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
Used Units New Units
11
13. Over ¾ of Textbook Dollars Sold are New
Units
100%
90%
80%
70%
71% 72% 70% 70% 70% 72% 74%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
29% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 26%
10%
0%
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
Used $ New $
12
14. Which Textbooks are Keepers?
Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates
Nursing 22%
Mathematics 22%
Business Education/Vo-Tech 22%
Engineering 21%
Biological Sciences 20%
Computers & Information Systems 18%
Foreign Languages and Literature 17%
Chemistry 17%
Accounting 17%
ESL 11%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
13
15. And which Texts are not?
Top Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates
Anthropology 48%
History 47%
Sociology 46%
Theater 45%
Philosophy 44%
Classics 44%
Parks & Recreation 44%
Art 44%
Criminal Justice 43%
40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%
14
16. ‘The Basics’
Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (est. in millions)
• .
Mathematics $875
English $628
Biological Sciences $514
Psychology $455
Computers & Information
$303
Systems
Accounting $266
Foreign Languages and
$262
Literature
Chemistry $260
Education $256
Engineering $228
$- $500 $1,000
Millions
15
17. Finance, Engineering. & C.S. are growing again!
Top 10 Growing Disciplines (in $)
AY 2011 to AY 2012
Finance 13.3%
Engineering 13.3%
Computer Science 12.1%
Animal Science 12.0%
Social Work 11.5%
Quantitative Business 9.2%
Legal Studies 7.8%
Chemistry 6.9%
Physics 6.5%
Geography 6.0%
16
18. Where the jobs ‘aren’t’-
Top 10 Declining Disciplines
AY 2010 to AY 2011
English -9.16%
Classics -9.07%
Dance -8.61%
History -7.78%
Art -7.66%
Philosophy -7.50%
Political Science -7.35%
Interdisciplinary Studies -6.23%
Sociology -5.30%
Education -3.76%
17
19. 101 - Psych & Spanish
Top 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
English Composition $170
Intro Psychology $169
Elementary Spanish $130
CIS: MS Office Suites $125
Intro General Chemistry $104
Non-Majors Biology $94
Human Anatomy and Physiology $89
Majors Biology $81
Mathematics: Softw are $79
$- $100 $200
Millions
18
20. Top 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
The Art of Public Speaking (PK w /Connect Lucas) 9.6
Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association 9.0
CINS 101: Computer Concepts (PK w /MyItLab) 8.9
Microsoft Office 2010: Introductory 8.6
Campbell Biology 8.4
Campbell Biology (PK w /MasteringBiology) 8.2
Human Anatomy and Physiology 6.7
A Writer's Reference 6.6
Exploring Psychology 6.2
Intermediate Accounting 6.2
$- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12
Millions
19
21. But it’s not just about the ISBN–
Consider total size of these franchises….
Total Sales
(est.)
Marieb $ 44 million
Campbell Biology $ 5 million
Lucas $ 12 million
20
24. Pricing
•Overall average textbook price: $65
(New & Used – unchanged from 2011)
•Overall average digital textbook price: $61
(up from $56 in 2011)
23
25. Wide Array of ‘e’
Top 5 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates
AY 2012 Units
Foreign Languages
and Literature 6.15%
Computers &
Information Systems 5.28%
Marketing 2.10%
Quantitative Business 1.87%
Film Studies 1.53%
24
26. Rental growth strong for used:
Used Rental
New Rental New Rental Used Rental Sales (Millions)
Term Units Sales (Millions) Units
Fall Term 2010 485,636 $ 22.9 297,786 $ 11.7
Spring & Summer
2011 997,245 $ 45.9 1,344,498 $ 51.2
Fall Term 2011 1,969,199 $ 92.8 1,830,288 $ 60.7
Spring & Summer
2012 1,248,288 $ 53.6 2,246,607 $ 79.5
Note: Rentals as sold through PT-HE Data Suppliers: Not including Chegg
25
27. Top Disciplines for Rentals:
Top Discipline
1 English
2 Psychology
3 Mathematics
4 History
5 Biological Sciences
26
29. Insert
Image
Here
Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What percent of students enrolled actually
buy the required textbook?
• How does this differ by format (print
textbook, custom, digital text)?
• How does this differ by Discipline?
• How does this differ by Pub Date?
28
30. Insert
Image
Here
Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required
textbook?
• Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” in 4 courses
80%
70%
4%
60% 4%
50% 20% 5%
4% used rent
2% 3%
3% 3% new rent
40%
9% 16%
10% used
30%
new
20% 40%
29% 32%
28%
10%
0%
English Economics Mathematics Psychology
29
31. Insert
Image
Here
Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What if it’s custom?
• Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” of custom
product in same 4 courses
100%
90%
1%
80% 12%
70%
60% 1% used rent
1% 0%
50% 6% 7% 13% new rent
40% used
73%
30% new
50% 50%
20% 44%
10%
0%
English Economics Mathematics Psychology
30
32. Insert
Image
Here
Publishers interested in…..
Shift to Digital…
• Despite high costs of textbooks, why does print still
dominate?
• When can we expect the instructor/higher ed market
to transition?
• Will the nature of the “textbook” have to change?
31
33. Textbook Purchase Source
(Source: Bowker Market Research: Book Buyer Tracker N= 842, annually)
60%
50%
40%
In Store (in person)
30% Online
device/app
20%
10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
32
34. Textbook outlet sources:
40%
35%
30%
25%
Amazon.com
other eCommerce
20%
Large chain stores
College Bookstores
15%
10%
5%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
33