Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
•
2 j'aime•1,294 vues
My talk for #TEDxKL about economics, self-organized criticality and football managers and how they are related althogether.
Recommandé
Contenu connexe
Plus de Bernard Leong
Plus de Bernard Leong (19)
Dernier
Dernier (16)
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
- 1. Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers Bernard Leong 3 June 2009
- 2. Self-Organization Long Tail Self-Organized Criticality Tipping Point
- 3. SOC implies scale invariance and “simple” microscopic mechanism leads to an observed macroscopic effect. Earthquakes History Objects Economic, Social & Mechanism Classical Mechanics Political Interactions Self-Organization Formation of tectonic Formation of a social Structure plates hierarchy Criticality Earthquake Political Change Power Law Plot the frequency of Plot the frequency of tenures (Emergent Phenomenon) earthquakes vs Richter scale vs tenures of leaders
- 6. P (t) = At α Measures how volatile the league is, i.e. how frequent they fire managers.
- 7. Period Power Law α England 1874-2005 ✔ -2.23 France 1928-2003 × n/a Spanish 1910-2003 ✔ -2.75 Germany 1947-2003 ✔ -2.51 All Managers 1874-2005 ✔ -2.75 National Coaches 1902-2003 ✔ -2.92 American Baseball 1875-2003 ✔ -2.63 American Football 1920-2003 ✔ -2.08 Japanese Baseball 1936-2003 ✔ -2.41 Source: Aidt, Leong, Sgroi, Saslaw, Physica A, 370(2): 697-703
- 8. Can we explain this via a microscopic model? ✤ We initialize 20 managers with two attributes: (1) Reputation and (2) Tenure Length. ✤ Use the standard round robin (38 games) with each managers playing against each other and a simple scoring system. The principles of relegation, “Home” and “Away” apply. ✤ We use a set of criteria to decide how we fire a manager. ✤ Then run it for a hundred years (steady state) and see if we can produce the power law distribution relating tenure length and frequency.
- 9. When do we “fire” a manager? ✤ A manager is fired for poor performance - Firing threshold. ✤ A manager is poached by another club by good performance - Poaching threshold ✤ A manager retires due to old age - Ossification threshold ✤ A manager is replaced when the team is relegated in the main league after 38 games. You are fired !!!
- 10. “Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A) or Equal Chances (Model B)
- 11. “Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A) or Equal Chances (Model B)
- 15. Wage Cap of players removed Start of TV coverage
- 17. Economics & Football Managers ✤ Competitive market forces might bring sports leagues to a point of maximum efficiency related to self-organized criticality. ✤ Competition is a zero sum game where what matters is relative, not absolute performance. ✤ The Red Queen Principle: The more things change, the more they stay the same.