Rapid manufacturing and the global economy

Rapid Manufacturing and the Global Economy

Master of Philosophy in Technology Policy
2007/2008

Rapid Manufacturing and the
Global Economy

Written by:
Blake J. Driscoll
MPhil in Technology Policy Candidate
Judge Business School
University of Cambridge

With the guidance of:
Dr. William O’Neill
Institute for Manufacturing
Department of Engineering
University of Cambridge

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Declaration

This Project Report is substantially my own work and conforms to the Judge School
guidelines on plagiarism. Where reference has been made to other research this is
acknowledged in the text and bibliography.

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Abstract
Rapid manufacturing is more than a novel method of production; rather, it
represents a paradigm shift which will impact the very nature of production and
consumption. The ability to quickly manufacture limited quantities of highly individualized
or geometrically optimized products locally is a revolutionary prospect which challenges the
fundamental principles of economies of scale, specialization, mass production, and
outsourcing which have largely defined the manufacturing industry since the industrial
revolution.
Many have speculated that rapid manufacturing will enable a manufacturing
renaissance in high wage economies by reducing labor and assembly costs. Others declare
rapid manufacturing to be the next industrial revolution. While such claims are common,
there has been no attempt to quantify the potential impact of rapid manufacturing upon the
global economy. This study will evaluate rapid manufacturing as a disruptive technology,
identify which products will be most likely impacted by the uptake of additive fabrication,
and quantify the potential impact widespread adoption of rapid manufacturing may have
upon global trade.

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Acknowledgements
…to Malcolm Cook and Jim Dempsey for introducing me to rapid prototyping.

…to Bill O’Neill for sharing my initial enthusiasm to undertake a project of this scope.

…to Grant Kopec and Satya Dash for their ideas, opinions, and sense of humor.

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Table of Contents
DECLARATION ................................................................................................................................................. 2
ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................................................... 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................................ 4
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................... 5
1 RAPID MANUFACTURING AS A DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY .............................................. 6
1.1 EVOLUTION OF RAPID MANUFACTURING ......................................................................................... 6
1.2 EVOLUTION OF TRADITIONAL MANUFACTURING ............................................................................. 6
1.3 RAPID MANUFACTURING AS A DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY .............................................................. 8
2 POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS OF RAPID MANUFACTURING ................................................ 10
2.1 RECENTLY COMMERCIALIZED APPLICATIONS ................................................................................. 10
2.2 CURRENT AREAS OF RESEARCH ....................................................................................................... 13
2.3 FEASIBILITY OF IMPLEMENTING RAPID MANUFACTURING AT THE FIRM LEVEL ............................ 15
2.4 CHARACTERISTICS OF PROMISING APPLICATIONS .......................................................................... 17
2.5 LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT TECHNOLOGY ....................................................................................... 18
3 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF RAPID MANUFACTURING ON CURRENT PRODUCTS .......... 19
3.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................ 19
3.2 ANALYSIS OF CURRENT PRODUCTS .................................................................................................. 22
4 THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION? ...................................................................................... 29
4.1 MANUFACTURING AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ............................................................................ 29
4.2 THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF RAPID MANUFACTURING ................................................................... 30
4.3 THE REAL IMPACT OF RAPID MANUFACTURING ............................................................................. 31
5 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................ 36
6 FUTURE WORK ...................................................................................................................................... 38
APPENDIX I: PRODUCT ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................... 39
APPENDIX II: FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS.................................................................................................... 57
APPENDIX III: TRADE STATISTICS BY PRODUCT.............................................................................. 59
APPENDIX IV: TRADE STATISTICS BY COUNTRY.............................................................................. 62
REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................................... 67

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1 Rapid Manufacturing as a Disruptive Technology
The first chapter will introduce the reader to additive fabrication technology,
describe the evolution of traditional manufacturing, and evaluate rapid manufacturing as a
disruptive technology.
1.1 Evolution of Rapid Manufacturing
Additive fabrication is a revolutionary manufacturing process first commercialized
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by 3D Systems in 1986. Many forms of additive fabrication exist, including
stereolithography (SLA), selective laser sintering (SLS), fused deposition modelling (FDM),
and 3D printing. All additive technologies utilize an additive process of bonding liquid,
powder, or other materials layer-by-layer to produce a physical part.
While early additive technologies were quite crude in terms of accuracy, limited in
terms of material selection, and required several pre- and post-processing steps, they were
embraced by designers and engineers who used the technology to produce prototypes and
models for evaluating form, fit, and function of designs early in the development cycle,
greatly reducing design costs and increasing the speed and quality of products brought to
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market. Because of this early application, additive fabrication is often referred to as “rapid
prototyping.”
Additive fabrication continued to make technological advancements under the guise
of “rapid prototyping” throughout the 1990s and 2000s. With continuous improvements in
materials, resolution, and build speed, many began to consider additive fabrication as a
manufacturing process in its own right. The application of additive techniques for the
production of end use products, or “rapid manufacturing,” is a potentially revolutionary
concept which will form the basis of this study.
1.2 Evolution of Traditional Manufacturing
To understand the potentially disruptive nature of rapid manufacturing, a brief
history of traditional manufacturing is necessary to identify the fundamental principles
which have influenced the rise of industry. Despite numerous process improvement and
technology based improvements, two basic principles have largely defined traditional
manufacturing: specialization and standardization.
1.2.1 Basic Principles
Specialization is a natural manifestation of human interaction and represents the
most fundamental characteristic of manufacturing. Adam Smith discussed the increase in
human productivity resulting from specialization and the division of labor by drawing

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examples from contemporary society. He notes that even within primitive tribes, certain
members would specialize in the manufacture of tools and weapons to be exchanged with
others who specialized in hunting.3 David Ricardo identified the concept of comparative
advantage in which entire nations or societies may benefit from specialization and trade. He
notes that natural or artificial advantages unique to geographic regions or societies support
the production of certain products, the trade of which results in increased wealth.4
Early manufacturing, or “craft production,” was based largely upon specialization.
Craft production featured highly skilled workers using flexible tools to design and produce
customized products in low volumes. It originally consisted of local customers, local
production, and local suppliers—although improvements in transport and international
trade would eventually enable the expansion of markets. Because each manufactured item
was unique, the overall consistency and quality of craft production was highly variable.5
The development of interchangeable parts by Honoré Blanc and Eli Whitney in the
late 1700s represents a significant advancement in production methodology. 6 The
standardization of parts and processes provided improved quality and consistency, thus
enabling larger production volumes at lower cost.
Standardization is the fundamental process which enabled a shift from craft
production to mass production and, along with specialization, largely defines contemporary
manufacture. While today’s global manufacturing system also benefited from numerous
technology and process improvements, the underlying principles remain specialization and
standardization.
1.2.2 Process Improvements
Following the development of standardized parts, the next significant advancement
in manufacturing occurred in 1908 with Henry Ford’s development of the assembly line.
His system of mass production utilized unskilled workers to operate inflexible single-
purpose machines and enforced rigid measurement techniques to ensure consistency and
facilitate assembly. The result was highly standardized production which delivered a high
volume of products with significantly reduced costs. By automating the entire assembly
process along a moving belt, Ford was able to carefully control the rate of production.7 Also
in the early 1900s, Fredrick Winslow Taylor introduced the idea of scientific management.
Taylor preached the extreme specialization through the division of labor into basic tasks, the
subsequent optimization of which would result in improvements to the overall process.
Taylor’s ideas are credited with launching the field of management science.8

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The concept of lean production represents the next significant process improvement.
Pioneered by Eiji Toyoda and Taiichi Ohno in the 1950s and 1960s, “lean” encompasses a
variety of process improvements including reduction of waste, continuous improvement of
production processes (kaizen), just-in-time inventory supply, and build-to-order production
based on kanban.9 Unlike mass production, lean utilizes multi-skilled workers and semi-
flexible machines to produce a limited variety of products in moderate volumes. This
reduces time wasted changing over to a different product, thus enabling the cost effective
manufacture of products with short lifecycles while reducing inventory and overhead
costs.10 Despite these improvements over mass production, lean factories still specialize in a
limited variety of products with common, standardized characteristics.
Agile manufacturing is yet another modern production philosophy which strives to
improve, but not fundamentally change, traditional mass production. Agile manufacturing
systems feature high levels of product and process flexibility to compress product lead time
and improve responsiveness. These goals may be achieved within a traditional mass
production environment through the rapid reconfiguration of manufacturing processes, but
typically result in additional waste. 11 Some manufacturers have attempted to meet
consumer demand through modularization, or the personalized combination of
standardized components.12 The most extreme form of agile manufacture, “build-to-order,”
requires process flexibility, product flexibility, and volume flexibility to effectively meet
consumer demand.13 Agility attempts to combine the flexibility and customization of craft
production with the reliability and volume of mass production, but is restricted by the need
to utilize standardized parts and specialized processes.
The application of technology has also historically resulted in the improvement of
manufacturing processes. Both Smith and Ricardo discussed the numerous benefits of
machinery, notably the reduction of labor by specialized machines capable of completing
repetitive tasks. The steam engine powered early factories of the industrial revolution,
while enterprise resource planning systems power today’s global manufacturing businesses.
While technology has greatly improved the efficiency of production, it has not inherently
changed its fundamental principles.
1.3 Rapid Manufacturing as a Disruptive Technology
Traditional manufacturing is built upon the principles of standardization and mass
production. Gradual improvements in process, technology, and transportation have
resulted in a truly global supply chain of international sourcing, manufacturing, and
distribution with economies of scale never previously imagined. But rapid manufacturing

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provides producers and consumers with a different value proposition: responsive
production of low-volume, customized products with increasingly competitive unit prices.
According to Christensen, attributes which make disruptive technologies less
appealing to mainstream markets are the same attributes which are more appealing to
emerging markets.14 In the case of rapid manufacturing, the ability to generate customized
products with a flexible machine is counter to the fundamental principles of conventional
manufacture—standardization and specialization.
Rapid manufacturing eliminates the need to produce standardized products and
maintain highly specialized factories. It provides the flexibility to manufacture multiple
products with a single machine, including complex geometries previously impossible to
manufacture through subtractive means. Additive technology enables the fabrication of
truly personalized products given direct customer input, thus eliminating all forms of
standardization.
Tuck and Hague discuss how rapid manufacturing achieves many goals of both lean
and agile philosophies. Rapid manufacturing results in the elimination of waste through the
reduction raw materials, work in progress inventory, and finished goods inventory. Further
cost savings are achieved by reducing assembly costs, consolidating the number of
components, reducing set-up and change-over time, and potentially eliminating transport
costs by allowing for manufacture at the site of demand. In addition, additive technologies
allow for the creation of value through customization and the compression of lead time
through the elimination of supply lines—two key goals of agile manufacturing.15 While lean
and agile manufacturing attempt to improve traditional production techniques, rapid
manufacturing achieves the goals of both philosophies using an entirely different—and
potentially disruptive—approach.

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2 Potential Applications of Rapid Manufacturing
Potential applications of rapid manufacturing technologies have been widely
documented in both academic literature and popular press. This chapter will review many
of the recently commercialized applications of additive fabrication and current areas of
research, and will also examine literature addressing firm level implementation of additive
technologies. This review will serve to identify the characteristics of promising applications
as well as the current limitations of rapid manufacturing technology.
2.1 Recently Commercialized Applications
The following literature review describes the numerous applications which have
been commercialized to date.
2.1.1 Prosthetic Implants
Rapid manufacturing has been widely adopted by the medical industry for a variety
of applications. Janssens and Poukens attribute the early adoption of rapid manufacturing
within the medical industry to the need for personalized implants, the ability to produce
complex geometries, and the ability of doctors to actively influence the design and
manufacture of components which greatly reduces development time and improves quality.
Most importantly, the high-value nature of medical devices justifies the relatively high cost
of manufacture.16
Doctors are using additive fabrication to produce titanium implants which can be
customized prior to surgery, offer a more accurate fit, and provide better post-operation
aesthetic appearance for the patient. Janssens and Poukens have also demonstrated the
successful use of electron beam melting to manufacture a titanium cranial implant.
2.1.2 Orthodontics
Harris and Savalani discuss a variety of applications in the field of orthodontics.
They cite research into the use of selective laser melting and selective laser sintering to
produce titanium prosthetics, but note that resolution constraints of today’s technologies
limit the rapid manufacture of dental prosthetics. They also cite more successful application
of rapid manufacturing technology for the production of orthodontic support structures,
such as drill guides, which can be customized for each patient.17
The Invisalign® system is perhaps the most successful commercial application of
rapid manufacturing technology in the field of orthodontic support structures. First
commercialized by Align Technologies in 1999, Invisalign® utilizes SLA technology to
create a series of customized clear plastic implants to be worn over a patient’s teeth.
Incremental changes in each successive implant slowly realign and straighten a patient’s

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teeth over the length of treatment, typically lasting about twelve months. Each implant is
unique, designed to fit each patient’s dental structure as well as the particular stage of
treatment.18
2.1.3 Hearing Aids
Masters, et al, discussed the use additive techniques for the manufacture of hearing
aids, citing particular benefits of quality and consistency. Hearing aids require a
personalized fit for both functionality and comfort. To achieve this level of customization, a
highly manual process resembling traditional craft-style of manufacture was employed,
often resulting in variable quality and inconsistency. Rapid manufacturing is able to deliver
the necessary personalized fit in addition to consistency and quality. Masters also cites the
biocompatibility of SLS nylon material as an inherent benefit of the technology.19
Phonak, one of the top three global manufacturers of communication and ear care
technology, uses selective laser sintering to manufacture nylon hearing aids. In addition to
delivering a personalized device in a biocompatible material, rapid manufacturing allows
Phonak to carefully control their production process and quickly deliver original or
replacement products to customers. 20 Siemens, the market leader in hearing aids, also
utilizes SLS technology to manufacture hearing aids. Like Phonak, Siemens cites process
control and improved quality as the primary advantages over traditional manufacturing
methods.21
2.1.4 Sports Equipment
Delamore, et al, demonstrates the use of SLS in the development of bespoke football
boots citing advantages such as the ability to produce customized sensory and aesthetic
features and design freedom through consolidation of components and application of
functionally graded materials. 22 Gerrits describes the use of SLS to manufacture a
customized helmet for an Olympic rower. The helmet was designed to reduce body
temperature by reflecting sunlight and optimizing wind flow along the rower’s skull, thus
improving comfort and performance.23 Current research at Loughborough University is
investigating the use of rapid manufacturing technologies to produce tailored sports
garments optimized for injury prevention and impact protection.24
These examples of additive technology in sport target the niche market of world class
athletes, not the mass market of amateurs. While the high cost of personalized development
is currently limited to professional athletes who can more easily justify the expense and
quantify the value of competitive advantage, continued improvements in additive

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technology and subsequent reduction in cost may make this application more widely
accessible.
2.1.5 Aerospace Industry
Fox presents variety of factors which make rapid manufacturing attractive to firms
within the aerospace industry. Tooling is not cost effective given the low production
volume of the aircraft industry, so the small-batch ability of rapid manufacturing is
attractive. Further, rapid manufacturing is able to produce truly functional components
with adequate material, geometry, and accuracy. Rapid manufacturing technologies are also
flexible in their ability to build using a variety of materials, thus the continuous
development of new materials suitable for rapid manufacturing will only support the
continued application of the technology.25
Fox also presents an example of British Aerospace utilizing SLS technology to
manufacture complex duct work for its aircraft. Boeing and the US Navy also utilized SLS
to manufacture cooling ducts with complex geometry for the F/A-18 Hornet. In the case of
the F/A-18 Hornet, SLS was able to provide both the accuracy and material functionality as
well as the benefit of consolidating the number of components, thus reducing the need for
intermediate assembly.26
Spielman reflects on the use of rapid manufacturing to produce “Flight Certified”
components for use in space. Two hundred plastic capacitor housings were to be
manufactured for the international space station—a quantity which made rapid
manufacturing more economically viable than injection molding. Despite the need to
qualify the material and process prior to production and use, the total cost of product
development remained lower than that featuring traditional tooling.27
The University of Loughborough worked with Martin Baker Aircraft to develop
personalized ejector seats for pilots, but were ultimately limited by materials constraints.28
Steward examined the application of rapid manufacturing in the production of
premium airline seats. He cites benefits of rapid manufacturing given the low volume of
premium seats and complexity of seating design, but acknowledges that material limitations,
the need for aesthetic finishing operations, and size constraints limit the practical application
to small, non-cosmetic, non-structural seat components.29
2.1.6 Motor Sports
Tromans has examined the application of rapid manufacturing in the automobile
industry, specifically its early applications within motor sports. He notes that rapid
manufacturing is well suited for Formula One and NASCAR because of its ability to

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produce customized functional components in small volumes, generate complex geometries
which may be otherwise unmanufacturable, and quickly turn around new or replacement
parts.30
The Renault Formula One team recognized the early potential of rapid
manufacturing and developed a digital manufacturing center in 2002 with 3D Systems, a
pioneer of stereolithography technology. 31 The ability to make quick modifications to
functional components and reduce the need for assembly by consolidating multiple
components into single parts is advantageous for F1 teams.
Morrison provides an example of custom motorcycle shops which are utilizing
additive fabrication to produce functional parts in low volumes for their unique bikes.32
Kimberley discusses numerous applications of rapid manufacturing by the Italian
firm CRP Technology to optimize complex, functional components in low volumes. He cites
examples from Formula One racing, including break ducts, air intakes, and body panels, as
well as examples from championship motorbikes including seats, mudguards, and
windscreens.33
2.1.7 Art and Furniture
Rapid manufacturing has also allowed artists to construct works previously
restricted to their imaginations. EOS has collaborated with designer Assa Ashuash to
develop an artistic chair with optimized ergonomic and structural properties.34 Materilise, a
rapid manufacturing and design company based in Belgium, offers a variety of lamps, vases,
and other interior ornaments.35 And the Dutch firm Freedom of Creation uses laser sintering
to produce a range of artistic lighting and furniture pieces which are not manufacturable by
traditional methods. Freedom of Creation has also used SLS technology to produce
personalized awards and trophies for a variety of clients.36
2.1.8 Aesthetic Models
Morrison provides an example of firms using rapid manufacturing to produce
architectural models faster and cheaper than traditional, manual-intensive methods. 37
Wisconsin-based 3D Molecular Designs employs five different rapid manufacturing
technologies to produce complex models of proteins and other molecules for scientists and
academics.38
2.2 Current Areas of Research
In addition to the wide variety of additive products have already been
commercialized, many other applications are currently being researched.

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2.2.1 Textiles
Fralix has documented the potential for mass customization within the apparel
industry.39 Hague has described the benefits of rapidly manufactured textiles, including
seamless garments, customized tailoring, the creation of products that transition from solid
to fabric, and the potential to produce smart textiles with embedded functionality such as
computing.40
Evenhuis and Kyttanen first developed the concept for the rapid manufacture of
textiles composed of individual links and their company, Freedom of Creation, has
commercialized a limited number of textile products which are manufactured using SLS.
However, current technical capabilities limit the resolution of rapidly manufacture textiles,
which tend to be quite crude and resemble medieval chainmail. Continued improvements
will likely expand the number of potential applications.41
2.2.2 Automotive
The automobile is arguably responsible for the emergence of mass production in its
current form.42 Given the sheer volume of automobile production, the application of rapid
manufacturing within the automotive industry has been largely limited to the niche market
of high performance vehicles and concept cars.
Lamborghini worked with CRP Technology to manufacture a carbon fibre headlight
washer cover flap for its Gallardo sports car using SLS. The aerodynamic and aesthetic
requirements of the high speed vehicle demanded dimensional precision and reliability in a
variety of environmental situations. While this represents the successful application of rapid
manufacturing in the manufacture of consumer automobiles, it must be noted that the initial
production run was for only one hundred vehicles.43
Knight discusses research conducted by MG Rover and Loughborough University to
assess various automotive applications of rapid manufacturing, including seats, steering
wheels, and hand breaks customized to fit individual drivers. While the ability to create
accurate part geometry exists, researchers believe there is a need to ensure the repeatability
of mechanical properties before utilizing the technology for structural and safety
applications.44
Hyundai collaborated with Freedom of Creation to manufacture aesthetic floor
carpeting for the QarmaQ concept car using SLS.45
2.2.3 Bone Scaffolds
Despite the success of their titanium cranial implant, Janssens and Poukens
addressed the need for implants to be constructed of materials featuring biocompatibility

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and the ability to support bone growth rather than simply replace it. Cooke researched the
use of stereolithography to manufacture porous structure for tissue engineering applications.
Cooke’s study developed bespoke bone scaffolds using biocompatible, biodegradable
material to support cell regeneration in animals with promising results.46
2.2.4 Drug Delivery
Harris and Savalani have discussed the use of rapid manufacturing technologies to
provide effective, personalized methods of drug delivery. They postulate that the ability of
SLS or 3D-Printing to create functionally graded materials may enhance the drug release
rate of oral pharmaceuticals by optimizing the density and diffusivity of each pill. Further,
they suggest that the ability to manufacture each tablet individually would allow for patient
customization, as a single tablet containing multiple drugs with personalized dosages and
delivery times may replace the need to take multiple pills throughout the day.47
2.2.5 Construction
Others have examined the potential to apply rapid manufacturing techniques to
large scale construction projects. Soar explains that the construction of buildings and other
structures is well suited for rapid manufacturing because of its ability to produce
functionally graded and optimized designs, provide individual customization, and reduce
the need for assembly by integrating features such as wiring or ducting. 48 While this
demand for customization and flexibility are supported by rapid manufacturing principles,
the technology required to meet such demand is still in infancy. Khoshnevis cites the
unsuitability of existing technologies as the primary factor limiting widespread uptake
within the construction industry, notably the low deposition rate of existing technologies
and the inability to deliver a wide range of materials simultaneously.49
2.3 Feasibility of Implementing Rapid Manufacturing at the Firm Level
In addition to the numerous examples of rapid manufacturing applications, the
feasibility of implementing the technology for specific parts or for individual firms has been
widely documented.
Hopkinson examined the production economics of rapid manufacturing compared to
traditional injection molding at the part level. He considered the machine costs, labor costs,
and material costs of various rapid manufacturing technologies compared to traditional
methods (Figure 2.1).50 It must be noted that the magnitude of cost savings will vary for
different applications as the unit cost of rapid manufacturing is highly dependent upon part
geometry.

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Figure 1.1: Production Cost Comparison for Various Technologies, 3.6 g part (Hopkinson 2006).
Rufflo, et al, expanded upon Hopkinson’s study by accounting for the initial
overhead cost of the rapid manufacturing machine, as well as recurring maintenance costs,
labor costs, and other costs. He also considered the cost incurred by building impartial lines,
layers, or builds. Using the same baseline part, Rufflo found a higher per-part cost estimate
than Hopkinson’s study and also showed the effect of non-optimal build quantities (Figure
2.2). Despite finding a higher cost per part, Rufflo’s study confirms the value of rapid
manufacturing for low volume production compared to injection molding.51

Figure 2.2: Production Cost Comparison for Laser Sintering and Injection Molding, 3.6 g part
(Rufflo, et al. 2006).
Tuck and Hague examined the effect of rapid manufacturing at the firm level. In
addition to improved production economies, they note significant reductions in inventory,

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labor, and distribution costs. They postulate that rapid manufacturing may result in a
general reduction in overhead costs, shorter lead time to market, the near elimination of raw
materials, work in progress inventory, and finished goods inventory. They also examine a
variety of potential supply chain strategies given the freedom to manufacture in any
environment.52
Reeves has provided a methodology to assess the value of implementing rapid
manufacturing for individual businesses. He discusses the business drivers, material
considerations, and process considerations which should influence a firm’s decision to
implement rapid manufacturing. He also touches on higher level impacts, including a
reduction in supply chain and capital costs as well as reduction of lead time and the
advantage of being first to market.53
Walter, Holmström and Yrjölä discuss the potential impact of rapid manufacturing
on supply chain management by examining the many shortcomings of traditional spare
parts supply methods within the airline industry and introducing rapid manufacturing as a
potentially valuable alternative. They conclude that rapid manufacturing is especially well
suited for low volume production of parts featuring variable demand, high inventory
holding costs, and high logistics costs.54
2.4 Characteristics of Promising Applications
The preceding cases highlight many disruptive characteristics of rapid
manufacturing which have driven commercialization of the technology. These primary
characteristics are:
1. Personalization. The ability to manufacture truly personalized features has been
shown in numerous cases. Visual customization has been shown in art, aesthetic
models, and automobiles. The value of comfort and functionality achieved by the
manufacture of products to fit a consumer’s body has been shown in the cases of
hearing aids, bespoke football boots, and bone scaffolds.
2. Responsiveness. The value of speed and reduced lead times achieved by rapid
manufacturing has been widely documented and shown to be especially useful for
products which are fashionable, such as clothing, or products with variable demand,
such as spare parts.
3. Low Volume. The elimination of tooling and subsequent cost reduction is especially
valuable for applications featuring low production volumes, such as motorsports or
aerospace.

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4. Complexity. The ability to produce complex geometries which were previously
impossible to manufacture, such as optimized airflow systems, is also extremely
valuable. Rapid manufacturing also allows for the consolidation of components and
reduction of assembly costs.
2.5 Limitations of Current Technology
Despite the numerous benefits, the previous cases also highlight barriers which limit
the feasibility of implementing rapid manufacturing. While additive technologies are
continuously being researching and improved, a number of issues still remain.
1. Resolution. The precision and resolution of additive technologies limits their
feasibility for some applications, as the need for finishing or post-processing results
in additional costs.
2. Size. The build envelope of current rapid manufacturing technologies limits its
application to relatively small products. The largest additive system is capable of
building a part only 59” across.55
3. Reliability. While rapid manufacturing is able to provide some level of control and
repeatability to previously manual processes, the overall quality and reliability of the
process has yet to be qualified. If rapid manufacturing is used to produce a highly
customized functional component, each iteration may potentially require reliability
or safety testing.
4. Speed and Cost. The low deposition rate of rapid manufacturing limits its
application in large-scale projects, such as construction. And the high cost of
materials makes rapid manufacturing an unlikely replacement for high-volume, low-
value industries.
5. Materials. Current materials also limit the number of practical applications of rapid
manufacturing technology. Questions of biocompatibility restrict in vivo
applications, with only limited achievements in the field of hearing aids. The ability
to manufacturing multiple materials at the same time is also a current limitation of
the technology. And while the ability to provide functionally graded materials my
eventually prove valuable, it has yet to be commercialized.

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3 Potential Impact of Rapid Manufacturing on Current Products
This chapter will identify products and sectors which are most likely to be affected
by rapid manufacturing based on the characteristics identified in the previous chapter. It
will introduce a methodology used to evaluate the potential impact on individual products
in terms of applicability and feasibility.
Applicability refers to the ability of rapid manufacturing to add value to a product.
Value may be added by providing customization and improved responsiveness based on
consumer demand. Value may also be created through geometric optimization and part
consolidation, which may also reduce assembly and tooling costs.
Feasibility, in contrast, refers to the ability of rapid manufacturing technologies to
actually manufacture products given current or expected limitations in terms of materials,
size, resolution, reliability, and cost. In addition to identifying products which are most
likely to be impacted by rapid manufacturing, evaluating the feasibility of the most
promising applications will provide a basis for future research and improvement of rapid
technologies.
It is important to note that applicability will dictate the uptake of rapid
manufacturing more so than feasibility. Consumer demand must exist and value must be
created to justify the application of rapid manufacturing technologies. A product’s ability to
be constructed through additive means may not provide any additional value compared to
conventional methods, and would therefore not justify a shift in production style.
3.1 Methodology
To evaluate the potential impact of rapid manufacturing for a large quantity of
individual products, a consistent and transparent methodology is necessary. To date, no
such methodology has been developed and a study of such scope has not been undertaken.
This evaluation intends to provide a high level analysis of all commonly
manufactured and globally traded goods. It strives to identify products and sectors most
likely to be affected by rapid manufacturing, thus allowing conclusions to be drawn
regarding the potential impact of rapid manufacturing upon the global economy. Given
such a wide scope, a flexible methodology has been developed which may accommodate a
diverse range of products.
The proposed methodology resembles a failure mode and effect analysis, a common
engineering tool used to evaluate product reliability in terms of multiple, independent
characteristics. The simplicity of this method will provide flexibility to assess a wide variety
of products, each with very different features.56

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Characteristics presented in the previous chapter will serve as criteria for assessment.
Each individual product will be assigned a numeric score for each characteristic to quantify
the value which may be added by rapid manufacturing. These criteria scores will be
multiplied to determine a “value score” for each manufactured product. This “value score”
will enable the comparison of different goods based upon the total value received from
rapid manufacturing. While certain products will likely achieve greater value from certain
characteristics, all criteria will carry an equal weighting for mathematical simplicity, clarity,
and consistency, allowing for an unbiased comparison of different products. A weighted
scale of 1 (low value), 2 (minor value), 4 (moderate value), and 8 (high value) was used to
evaluate each characteristic.*
Once the most applicable products are identified, the feasibility of manufacture will
be assessed using a similar scale ranging from 1 (not feasible) to 8 (feasible).
3.1.1 Applicability
Consumer demand for customization is one characteristic which will continue to
drive the acceptance of rapid manufacturing technologies. However, various levels of
customization exist. Extreme customization, such as body fit or ergonomic personalization,
achieves perhaps the highest value for products requiring direct input from the user to
improve comfort or performance (value = 8). Modular personalization, resulting in
variations of shape, size, or material, is of less value than ergonomic personalization but
may significantly improve functionality (value = 4). Basic customization, such as color or
appearance, may significantly affect aesthetic qualities of a product, but is of less value than
ergonomic or modular personalization in that it has no impact on functional performance
(value = 2). Some products may achieve no value through personalization (value = 1), such
as purely functional products with little user interaction or products for which value may be
actually be achieved through standardization.
Consumer demand for responsiveness is also highly variable. Rapid manufacturing
may deliver high value for products which require immediate availability in response to
sporadic demand (value = 8), but little value for products featuring consistent demand
(value = 1). Intermediate products may be assessed in terms of fashionability, with highly

*
An exponential scale was selected in preference to a linear scale to better distinguish products gaining
significant value from rapid manufacture. A variety of alternate scales were also investigated to prove the
robustness of the methodology, including both linear scales of [1,2,3,4], [1,3,5,7], and [1,4,7,10] and exponential
scales of [1,3,9,27]and [1,4,16,64]. Use of these scales identified nearly the same products to be promising
applications as the originally selected exponential scale of [1,2,4,8] with 96% consistency. The decision to
calculate the “value score” through multiplication rather than addition was also investigated. The addition of
exponential scales resulted in generally the same products as multiplication with 73% consistency.

20


fashionable products receiving moderate value from rapid manufacture (value = 4) and less
fashionable products resulting in lower value (value = 2).
Value can also be achieved by enabling the production of complex products or
simplifying the number of components and labor required for assembly. Highly complex
assemblies may achieve high levels of value through rapid manufacturing (value = 8), while
simple assemblies may achieve moderate levels of value (value = 4). Complex components
may achieve some value (value = 2) while simple products offer little to no value (value = 1).
Reduction of tooling costs and the ability to deliver low production volumes is
perhaps the most disruptive aspect of rapid manufacturing. It is especially valuable for
production quantities of one (value = 8), but is also valuable for low production volumes up
to 1000 (value = 4). Medium production volumes between 1000 and 10,000 offer some
benefit (value = 2), while no benefit is achieved for mass produced products with quantities
over 10,000 (value = 1). While the scale of appropriate production quantities may change
given improvements in technology, the concept of individual, low, medium, and high
production volumes remains relevant.
3.1.2 Feasibility
Once the most promising products have been identified, each will be evaluated
based on feasibility of manufacture. Current limitations of rapid manufacturing technology
were discussed in the previous chapter will provide criteria for assessment.
The resolution of additive technologies may limit the feasibility of producing certain
products containing small features, fine detail, or requiring an exceptionally smooth surface
finish. Products requiring resolution which is achievable using current rapid technologies
are considered highly feasible (value = 8). Products requiring resolution which may be
attained assuming reasonable advancements in technology over the next decade are
considered somewhat feasible (value = 4). Products requiring significant advancements in
rapid technologies to meet resolution requirements are not feasible (value = 1).
Current rapid manufacturing technologies are also limited by the size of their build
envelope. Products measuring less than one cubic foot are considered highly feasible (value
= 8) as they are able to fit within the build envelope of a typical additive system. Assuming
reasonable advancements in additive technology over the next ten years provide build
envelopes of up to one cubic metre, medium sized products may be considered somewhat
feasible (value = 4). Extremely large products in excess of one cubic metre will require
significant advancements in rapid technologies and are not currently feasible (value = 1).

21


As an emerging technology, many questions still surround the reliability and
repeatability of additive processes. Non-functional products have little need for reliability
assurance and may be considered highly feasible given today’s level of technology (value =
8). Products with minimal reliability requirements may be considered somewhat feasible
(value = 4). Highly functional and high performance products, or products which must
meet strict safety requirements, will require further advancements in rapid manufacturing
processes (value = 1).
The speed and cost of manufacture also limit the application of rapid manufacturing
for certain products. The low deposition rate and high cost of material make rapid
manufacturing ill-suited for the production of large, low value products (value = 1). Small,
high-value products are more likely applications of the technology in its current form (value
= 8). Reasonable advancements in technology over the next ten years may expand the
potential applications to include larger products of lower value (value = 4), but rapid
manufacturing is unlikely to be cost effective extremely large products.
Materials represent another barrier for rapid manufacturing. While significant
advancements have been made in terms of material variety and functionality, the ability to
replicate certain material characteristics is not yet feasible. What is more, current additive
technologies lack the ability to fabricate multiple materials simultaneously. Plastic or
metallic products of single material may be considered highly feasible (value = 8), while
products requiring high performance materials or biocompatibility and products composed
of multiple materials may be considered somewhat feasible given moderate future
advancements (value = 4). Heat sensitive materials such as glass and materials featuring
unique tactile characteristics such as wood or fine textiles will require significant
improvements in current technology (value = 1).
3.2 Analysis of Current Products
The methodology described above was applied to over two thousand manufactured
products listed in the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC Rev 3).
SITC Rev 3 was selected due to the completeness of global trade statistics, which will form
the basis of the economic analysis conducted in the following chapter.
The products listed in SITC Rev 3 were first evaluated based on the value which may
be added through rapid manufacturing. Full results of this analysis have been provided in
Appendix I. The most promising products were then evaluated based upon the feasibility of
manufacture, the full results of which are available in Appendix II.

22


The following section will discuss the products identified as receiving the most value
from rapid technologies. For clarity of presentation, similar products will be grouped into
product families, each possessing similar characteristics well suited for rapid manufacture.
A detailed explanation will also address the feasibility of manufacture, as not all
applications are feasible given current or even reasonable advancements in additive
technology.
3.2.1 Medical Devices
Medical devices are perhaps the most promising application of rapid manufacturing
technology. Medical devices derive their greatest benefit from customization, as products
may be tailored to fit the recipient’s body. This includes both in-vivo products, such as
hearing aids, dental implants, and other artificial body parts, and in-vitro products, such as
spectacles and frames, walking sticks, and therapeutic or massage apparatuses. Medical
devices are also among the most feasible products to manufacture using additive methods
despite questions regarding the availability of materials and product reliability. The
applicability and feasibility of medical devices is further evidenced by the numerous
examples of commercialized applications presented in the previous chapter.
3.2.2 Art and Home Décor
Artists and designers have only recently embraced rapid manufacturing, but the
limitless design potential of additive fabrication allows the feasible production of highly
complex, customized products in volumes of one. This is especially valuable for art and
other interior decorations, especially those of high complexity featuring ornate details,
which would benefit from reduced assembly costs and are valued for their artistic qualities.
Clocks are a good application given their high level of fashion, the potential demand
for customization, and the complex assembly which may be reduced through rapid
manufacturing techniques. Lighting fixtures offer another opportunity for high aesthetic
customization. Decorative wall ornaments are perhaps the most feasible application of
rapid technology given the current technical capabilities of additive fabrication systems.
Improved resolution, speed, and material selection will continue to justify the uptake of
rapid manufacturing for this application.
Decorative woven articles, such as awnings, curtains, and tapestries, may also benefit
from high levels of aesthetic customization in terms of color, design, and shape. The ability
to manufacture in low volumes and respond to individual demand is also highly valuable.
However, the technology required to manufacture fabrics is still in infancy, and further

23


advancements in materials and resolution are needed to replace traditional forms of
manufacture.
Floor coverings, including hardwood, tile, carpet, or linoleum, provide an interesting
case. Currently, floor coverings are installed on-site. Raw materials are delivered to a
location and the floor covering is shaped to fit the unique interior space. In effect, floor
coverings are manufactured in volumes of one, and inherently possess both modular and
aesthetic customization. These features make it ideal for rapid manufacture, but current
technical capabilities severely limit the feasibility of such an application. Significant
improvements would be required in terms of material availability and resolution. What is
more, size and deposition rate limit the physical and financial feasibility of such an
application.
3.2.3 Jewellery
Jewellery is another application which would greatly benefit from the value
provided by customization. This includes watches, watch straps, rings, bracelets, and other
articles of metal or precious metal. The feasibility of using additive technologies for
jewellery manufacture will increase as a greater variety of materials, including precious
metals, become available for rapid manufacture.
3.2.4 Musical Instruments
The manufacture of musical instruments is another area which may be significantly
impacted by additive fabrication. Musical instruments typically feature high levels of
complexity, and rapid manufacturing would allow for a reduction in the number of
components, reduced assembly costs, and potentially optimized acoustic performance.
Instruments may also be designed to provide custom ergonomic fit for the musician or even
a signature sound. Additional research in this area is required, as material composition is a
key component of acoustic performance.
3.2.5 Sports Equipment
Another commercially viable application of rapid manufacturing is sporting goods,
including clothing and equipment. Sport offers an ideal application of rapid technologies
given the premium value associated with individual performance which is able to justify
higher development costs. This has been shown by previous examples of bespoke football
boots and applications within Formula One racing. While it is conceivable that rapid
manufacturing may someday deliver customized products to even casual athletes, the
current high cost of development restricts the market to that of high performance sports.

24


Clothing, including footwear, safety equipment, and other high performance
garments would greatly benefit from ergonomic customization. The numerous benefits of
bespoke football boots discussed in the previous chapter may be applied to other sporting
footwear such as tennis shoes, basketball shoes, ski boots, and ice or roller skates. Safety
equipment, such as headwear and lifejackets, may also be customized for optimum
performance. While the successful commercialization of bespoke football boots reinforces
the feasibility of sports apparel, continued advancements in materials and resolution as well
as a decrease in the cost of production are necessary for industry wide uptake.
The ability to customize other sports equipment, such as tennis racquets or golf clubs,
to fit individual athletes may also result in improved performance or comfort. Other
probable applications include skis, surfboards, and saddlery. Rapid manufacturing may
allow for optimized design of high performance woven articles, such as sails or parachutes.
These articles would also benefit from aesthetic customization and reduced assembly costs.
Given the ability of rapid manufacturing to deliver highly responsive supply,
children's toys have oft been presented as a promising application. 57 However, most toys
would benefit from only minor customization, such as color and shape, and the simplicity of
most toys remains better suited for high volume manufacture. But rapid manufacturing is
well suited for more complex toys which would also benefit from ergonomic customization.
Bicycles, tricycles, and scooters, for example, would benefit from improved safety and
comfort achieved through customization, as well as a reduction in assembly costs.
3.2.6 Consumer Electronics
Consumer electronics provide another potentially promising application of rapid
manufacturing, but significant advancements in technical capabilities are required before the
production of such products is considered feasible. Consumer electronics are highly
complex and would significantly benefit from a reduction in assembly costs. They are also
increasingly viewed as fashionable, as many products offer varying levels of
customization—from aesthetic to functional. What is more, consumer electronics possess a
relatively short product lifecycles. As technologies become outdated, they are replaced by
newer models and there is a need for producers to reinvest in tooling. Rapid manufacturing
would allow for the production of highly customized products in immediate response to
consumer demand, while eliminating the need for assembly and tooling.
Telephones and mobile phones are highly fashionable and would benefit from
aesthetic customization. Headphones, earphones, and hand tools may be personalized to
comfortably fit the individual consumer, thus resulting in improved performance.

25


However, further research is needed before additive technologies are capable of supporting
complex, electronic circuitry. Alternatively, certain consumer electronic components, such
as casings and housings, are well suited for rapid manufacture in its current form.
3.2.7 Architecture and Construction
The very nature of construction, featuring highly complex, highly customized
products in low volumes, is well suited for additive fabrication. But as previously discussed,
the slow deposition rate of current additive technologies and the inability to utilize multiple
materials simultaneously limits the feasibility of large scale construction. What is more, the
reliability of additive technologies has yet to be proven for use in such applications which
must consider structural integrity and human safety.
3.2.8 High Value Machinery
Rapid manufacturing is well suited for complex industrial machinery produced in
especially low volumes, such as hydraulic turbines or nuclear reactors. These products are
produced in very limited volumes, and would benefit greatly a reduction in part complexity,
geometric optimization, and the ability to customize features in response to unique
requirements. However, the reliability of current additive processes may be questioned for
such high performance machinery. Further, the size of such machinery is unable to be
accommodated by current build envelopes.
3.2.9 Spare Parts
Many highly complex, functional products are ill suited for rapid manufacture for a
variety of reasons. Heavy machinery and transport equipment, for example, are often
standardized and would derive little value from personal customization. They also have
long product lifecycles and stable demand, thus not benefiting from responsiveness of rapid
manufacture. What is more, these products are produced in large quantities to control
quality and reliability.
While rapid manufacturing may not be applicable for the production of complex
machinery, it offers significant value for the fabrication of spare parts and components.
Rapid manufacturing can support the agile supply of spare parts for machinery which are
highly complex and feature highly sporadic demand. Significant value is created by such
responsiveness which allows for the compression of lead time as well as the elimination of
inventory.
3.2.10 Luxury Clothing
Clothing is currently mass produced in a variety of colors, shapes, and sizes to
provide consumers with some level of modular customization. Rapid manufacturing,

26


however, may potentially allow for entirely bespoke wardrobes. While a demand for
rapidly manufactured clothing may exist, the feasibility of such an application may be
difficult to realize. Significant advancements in materials technology and machine
resolution are required to make the fabrication of clothing feasible.
Luxury garments, such as suits, jackets, and dresses, provide a potentially good
application given their high levels of customization, low volume of production, high
fashionability, and short product life cycle. Bespoke suits and dresses are among the only
forms of clothing which are not mass produced today, resulting in justifiably higher costs.
In addition to providing customized products responsively, the ability to manufacture
without the need for assembly would be beneficial. While demand for such an application
clearly exists, technical capabilities limit the feasibility of manufacturing fine textiles.
3.2.11 Vehicles
Luxury recreation vehicles such as yachts, cruise ships, and campers, possess many
characteristics which make them ideal candidates for rapid manufacture. While all types of
vehicle would benefit from aesthetic and modular customization and a reduction in
assembly costs, recreation vehicles tend to be produced in lower volumes which are more
conducive to rapid manufacture.
Automobiles were also identified as a promising application given their high
potential for customization and potential reduction of assembly costs through design
optimization. Motorcycles would likely achieve even greater benefits from ergonomic
customization including improved comfort, safety, and performance.
While recreational vehicles possess many intriguing characteristics, the need to meet
strict safety and reliability requirements may be difficult given both potentially significant
variations in design as well as the unproven nature of rapid manufacturing. What is more,
the feasibility of producing full size passenger and recreational vehicles is currently limited
as the size of such products is unable to be accommodated by the build envelope of current
systems. Certain components, such as body panels or seats, are slightly more practical than
an entire vehicle, but even these components are currently not feasible given current
technical limitations.
3.2.12 Unpromising Applications
A wide range of products will likely be unaffected by the advent of rapid
manufacturing. Highly functional products, raw materials, and simply worked products are
likely to achieve little value from additive fabrication. Some of these products may gain
value from possessing a standard shape and size, while others tend to be consumed in

27


extremely high volumes. For both reasons, mass production provides a more suitable form
of manufacture. Complex industrial machinery and scientific instrumentation are typically
valued for their functional rather than ergonomic characteristics. The same can be said for
simple products such as screws, paperclips, or bottle caps. Raw materials including plastics
in primary form, yarn and fabric, plywood and other simply worked wood, and bulk metal
products such as tubing, piping, wire, sheets, and ingots are unlike to be impacted.

28


4 The Next Industrial Revolution?
The previous chapter identified a variety of products possessing characteristics well
suited for additive fabrication and evaluated the feasibility manufacture given current or
reasonable advancements in additive technology. This chapter will attempt to quantify the
potential impact on global trade which may result from mass uptake of rapid manufacturing
for those products identified.
4.1 Manufacturing and the Global Economy
Continued advancements in transportation, communication, and information
technology coupled with the reduction of policy barriers and liberalization of trade has
enabled the development of a global economic system more closely integrated than ever
before.58 Manufacturing is a critical component of the global economy, accounting for over
two-thirds of global trade.59

OECD Trade Balance

400000

200000
Trade Balance (US$ millions)

Machinery and Transport Equipment
0 Chemicals
Beverages and Tobacco
Oils and Fats
-200000 Crude Materials
Food and Live Animals
Other goods
-400000 Basic Manufactures
Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods
Mineral Fuels
-600000

-800000
1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Figure 2.1: OECD Trade Balance with Rest of the World (Euromonitor International 2008).60
An ever increasing portion of global trade is taking place between developed and
developing nations, but the nature of trade is very imbalanced. Members of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, tend to export high
value products, such as machinery, transport equipment, and chemicals, while emerging
nations tend to export basic manufactured goods and mineral fuels (Figure 4.1). The balance
of basic and miscellaneous manufactured exports has slowly moved from developed to
developing nations over the past twenty years as emerging economies are able to leverage

29


their comparative advantage in labor to ma-nufacture articles at lower costs. This shift in
production is often perceived as a threat to developed nations, thus prompting many to
proclaim rapid manufacturing the savoir for western industry. But, as discussed in the
previous chapter, not all manufactured products are well suited for rapid manufacture.
4.2 The Perceived Impact of Rapid Manufacturing
The potentially disruptive nature of rapid manufacturing is evident given its
fundamental differences with mass production. This has driven many to assert that rapid
manufacturing will result in “the next industrial revolution” or claim that it will enable “a
manufacturing renaissance” in developed nations. 61 While common in literature, these
claims remain largely unsubstantiated. A vast majority of literature on rapid manufacturing
is dedicated to technical attributes of additive technology. Novel applications are becoming
increasingly common, while case studies examining the economic or operational impact at
the firm level remain infrequent. Larger, industry-wide analyses are even less common, and
the wider impact of rapid manufacturing on global economy and society has yet to be
examined.
In Rapid Manufacturing: An Industrial Revolution for the Digital Age, Hopkinson, Hague,
and Dickens provide arguably the most complete explanation of rapid manufacturing
technology and applications to date. They evaluate the potential impact of rapid
manufacturing upon consumers and business, as well as its potential impact on how
products are designed and distributed. However, their focus remains largely constrained to
the individual firm—a very relevant subject, but far from the “next industrial revolution”
touted in their introduction.62 Tuck and Hague state that “the ability to remove [logistic,
labour, and stock holding] costs could also affect the manufacturing environment on a
global scale, by reuniting manufacturing to the country of origin, as labour costs are no
longer a burden.” However, they make no attempt to quantify such claims.63
Following a thorough analysis of additive technologies, McMains offers the
following, similar conclusion: “The ability to make customized products with fast
turnaround times might even reverse the current trend throughout U.S. industry toward
offshore manufacturing.”64 However, no evidence is offered to support such a claim aside
from her explanation of basic rapid prototyping technologies and materials. Knight offers
the same, unsubstantiated conclusion: “As rapid manufacturing requires no tooling, the
technology could cut manufacturer's costs, and ultimately help to reverse the trend of
production moving to China and India.”65

30


But to what extent will rapid manufacturing impact global trade? What products
and sectors are most likely to be affected? Will some countries be more impacted than
others? Is rapid manufacturing truly capable leading a manufacturing renaissance in
developed nations?
4.3 The Real Impact of Rapid Manufacturing
The ability of developed and developing nations to manufacture domestically will
undoubtedly impact the current magnitude of global trade, potentially disrupting the level
of surpluses and deficits of individual nations and within individual sectors. Having
identified a variety of products for which additive fabrication is most applicable and most
feasible, the potential economic impact of large scale adoption may be quantified. Trade
statistics from 2005 will be analyzed as recorded by the United Nations’ Commodity Trade
Statistics Database. This year was chosen given its high level of completeness relative to
subsequent years.
4.3.1 Potential Magnitude
Seventy products and product types were identified in the previous chapter for
which rapid manufacturing is most applicable. These products represent 10.79% of globally
traded manufactured articles by value. Of those, only thirty-nine products were identified
as feasible given reasonable advancements in rapid manufacturing technology, representing
only 2.05% of globally traded manufactured goods by value. Such a magnitude is unlikely
to be considered revolutionary, but closer examination reveals a disproportionate impact
upon individual countries and sectors.
In 2005, a US$587 billion dollar trade deficit existed between OECD nations and non-
OECD nations for all traded commodities including fossil fuels, agriculture, raw materials,
and manufactured goods. Manufactured goods represented eighteen percent of the total
deficit, or US$106 billion. This deficit is largely a result of basic and miscellaneous
manufactured articles which are increasingly produced by non-OECD nations, as previously
shown in Figure 4.1. In 2005, basic and miscellaneous manufactured articles represented a
$284 billion dollar trade surplus for developing nations, while high value manufactures
imported from OECD nations represent a US$178 billion dollar deficit.66
When viewed in terms of trade deficit between developed and emerging nations, the
potential impact of rapid manufacturing appears more significant. A majority of the feasible
products identified as being well suited for rapid manufacture are categorized as basic or
miscellaneous manufactures by the standard international trade classification. These
products represent over 20%, or US$21 billion, of the total manufacturing trade deficit

31


between OECD and non-OECD nations, and nearly 4% of the total trade deficit between
developed and emerging economies.
4.3.2 Impact on Products and Sectors
Not all products and sectors will be equally impacted by rapid manufacturing.
Luxury and recreational products will most likely be affected, while high value
manufactures such as medical devices will remain largely unaffected. Trade statistics and
analysis by product are provided in Appendix III.
Artistic products, including statues and sculpture, and other products of home décor,
including lamps, chandeliers, and clocks, will be significantly affected by the uptake of rapid
manufacturing. These products represent US$40 billion worth of international trade, of
which nearly 30%, or US$11.7 billion, takes place between OECD and non-OECD nations.
Not all artistic products will be impacted, however, as wood products, ornamental ceramic
products, floor coverings, and woven articles including tapestries and curtains, require
significant advancements in rapid manufacturing technology to support industry-wide
uptake.
Musical instruments may also be significantly impacted by the uptake of rapid
manufacturing. The trade of musical instruments which may be manufactured using
additive methods represents a US$2.7 billion dollar industry, one-third of which, or US$0.9
billion, takes place between developed and developing nations.
The trade of sports equipment, including saddlery, sails, skis, golf equipment, and
tennis equipment, will also be considerably affected. These applications represent an US$8.7
billion dollar industry, nearly 30% of which takes place between OECD and non-OECD
nations. While rapid manufacturing has already been used to produce custom sports
footwear, this will most likely remain a niche application as cost constraints limit the
feasibility of mass-market acceptance.
The trade of jewellery products which may be impacted by rapid manufacture
represents a US$51 billion industry, of which US$3.7 billion takes place between developed
and developing nations.
Medical devices, including spectacles and frames, hearing aids, artificial teeth, and
other prosthetic implants, will remain largely unaffected. For these products, over 95% of
global trade is conducted among developed nations. The trade deficit between OECD and
non-OECD nations represents just US$1.6 billion of the US$34 billion dollar industry.
As previously discussed, consumer electronics, high value machinery, and luxury
clothing will not likely be affected as significant advancements in additive technology are

32


required to enable industry wide uptake. Perhaps the most promising consumer electronic
is headphones and earphones, which, like hearing aids, may be customized to provide a
more comfortable fit and improved acoustic performance. Headphones and earphones
represent a US$3.6 billion industry, of which $1.2 billion takes place between developed and
developing nations.
4.3.3 Impact on Individual Nations
The belief that high-wage economies will benefit from additive fabrication due to the
elimination of labor and assembly costs is overly simplistic, as not all countries will be
uniformly impacted by the uptake of rapid manufacturing. Also, the notion that developing
countries may benefit from the ability to manufacture domestically is oft overlooked. In
reality, rapid manufacturing provides variable advantages and disadvantages for both the
consumers and producers of individual nations. Trade statistics and analysis by country are
provided in Appendix IV.
As previously stated, products well suited for rapid manufacturing account for
nearly 20% of the manufacturing trade deficit between developed and developing nations.
Thus, to some extent, assertions that rapid manufacturing can “stop the trend” of
production moving overseas is justified. But it must be noted that cost reduction is not the
only factor which will drive the adoption of rapid manufacturing. Rather, additive
fabrication will be adopted for applications that derive value from customization,
responsiveness, or geometric optimization. Consumers seeking these attributes typically
reside in more developed nations. Consider that while OECD countries import over 70% of
all globally traded manufactured goods and commodities, they import an even higher
portion—over 80%—of products identified as potential applications for rapid manufacturing
based on value.
Thus, it can be argued that developed nations have the tendency and ability to
consume more luxury and recreational goods, such as art, jewellery, musical instruments
and sports equipment. In fact, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
and Japan are the top five importing nations for those products described. Given the
geographic freedom allowed by rapid manufacturing, the production of these products will
conceivably shift to the nations of consumption negatively affecting nations which currently
specialize in these manufactures, regardless of their level of economic development.
Switzerland represents a developed nation which may ultimately be harmed by a
world wide uptake of rapid manufacturing. Switzerland is a model high-wage economy,
routinely ranking among the highest nations in terms of gross national income per capita.67

33


However, Switzerland is also the world’s largest exporter of watches and clocks with nearly
US$10 billion exported in 2005. As illustrated in the previous chapter, watches and clocks
possess many characteristics which make them well suited for additive fabrication. The
ability for countries to manufacture watches and clocks domestically represents an
especially significant risk to Switzerland’s second largest exported commodity as well as
their marginal trade surplus of US$4.4 billion.
Italy provides another example of a high-wage economy which may be negatively
impacted by rapid manufacturing. Italy is the world’s largest exporter of both spectacles
and jewellery—two products which may gain immense value from the customization
provided by rapid manufacturing. Italy’s current manufacturing trade deficit of US$11.9
billion may potentially increase by over 50% to US$18.6 billion given the advent of rapid
manufacturing and subsequent reduction of its two primary exports.
The adoption of rapid manufacturing will also negatively impact numerous Asian
economies currently specializing in the supply of generic luxury and recreational goods.
Countries such as China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, and Thailand stand to be impacted
to varying degrees.
Chinese manufactures will be most severely impacted as nearly 17% of China’s
US$102 billion dollar trade surplus is composed of luxury and recreational products. This
represents US$17 billion in trade surplus which may be eliminated if their trading partners
adopt rapid manufacturing. Indonesia, another net exporter, will also be negatively
impacted. Nearly 2% of Indonesia’s US$28 billion dollar surplus, US$0.5 billion, may be
eliminated given the rise of rapid manufacturing.
Asian nations which are net importers will generally be negatively impacted. The
elimination of luxury and recreational products as manufacturing exports may cause Hong
Kong’s current trade deficit grow by over 50%, from US$8 billion to US$12 billion. Likewise,
Thailand’s trade deficit may grow 20%, from US$8 billion to US$10 billion, and India’s
deficit may grow 7%, from US$46 billion to US$50 billion.
However, not all developing nations will be negatively impacted. Net exporters
featuring a strong industrial base of transport equipment and heavy machinery, such as
Brazil and Russia, will be largely unaffected by the uptake of rapid manufacturing. These
nations will see less than a one-percent change in their current surplus of manufactured
goods. But as their economies continue to grow and prosper, the consumers of Brazil and
Russia will increasingly benefit from the ability to manufacture luxury and recreational
products domestically.

34


The potential impact upon developed nations which are net exporters is also highly
variable. Some net exporters will gain substantially from the ability to manufacture
previously imported luxury goods. Given the proposed uptake of rapid manufacturing,
Japan’s current trade surplus could grow from US$79 billion to US$85 billion. Germany,
however, will remain largely unaffected. Its current trade surplus may grow from US$197
billion to US$198 billion—a change of less than one percent.
Net importers, such as France, the United Kingdom, and the United States will
significantly benefit from the ability to produce luxury and recreational products
domestically. France may see up to a 3.4% reduction in its trade deficit, from US$42 billion
to US$40 billion. The US trade deficit may fall from US$828 billion to US$805 billion and the
UK trade deficit may fall from US$131 billion to US$128 billion, reductions of 2.8% and 2.4%
respectively.

35


5 Conclusion
The disruptive nature of rapid manufacturing is evident given its ability to deliver
truly customized or optimized products quickly and in small volumes. Further, the
elimination of labor costs allow for geographically unconstrained production and
distribution. Continuing advancements in additive technology and an expanding number of
practical applications have led many to speculate that rapid manufacturing may result in a
second industrial revolution and manufacturing renaissance in high income nations. While
rapid manufacturing will undoubtedly impact individual products, its impact upon
industrial sectors and nations has been shown to be highly variable.
The industrial revolution of the 1700s was enabled by new technologies and new
ways of thinking, but it was only a revolution because of the significant social and economic
changes which changed the how people lived, where people worked, and what people
consumed. As a disruptive technology, rapid manufacturing has the potential to redefine
our present conceptions of manufacturing as it removes many of the limitations inherent in
the current global manufacturing system. It will undoubtedly impact numerous products in
terms of design and production and fundamentally change what people consume and how
people live.
But the impact of rapid manufacturing will be much greater for certain products and
sectors. Luxury and recreational goods will be most significantly impacted given the high
value associated with customization and a reduction in part complexity and assembly costs.
The uptake of additive technology may also impact the balance of trade between developed
and developing nations, as well as among developed nations. The degree to which
economies of individual nations will be impacted has been shown to be highly variable.
However, consumers in all nations stand to benefit as rapid manufacturing will
undoubtedly result in improved product performance, increased consumer comfort, and
novel business models—all of which will deliver increased value to the customer. While the
balance of global trade will be impacted by rapid manufacturing, the outsourcing of most
low-value, labor intensive industries will be unaffected. Highly functional products, raw
materials and simply worked products are better suited for mass production, as they gain
little value from rapid manufacture.
However, as Clayton Christensen contends, radical innovation tends to create new
markets of customers whose needs are initially unknown to themselves and
manufacturers. 68 This is perhaps the most exciting aspect of rapid manufacturing, as
freedom from the design constraints inherent in traditional subtractive manufacture will

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undoubtedly result in a multitude of innovative products which have previously been
impossible to manufacture or not yet conceived. This study attempted to quantify the
potential impact of rapid manufacturing by evaluating current products and trade flows, but
it is impossible to quantify the impact of products yet to be imagined.

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6 Future Work
Given that this study attempted to evaluate the potential impact of rapid
manufacturing upon the global economy, it relied upon a methodology designed to
accommodate a wide variety of products and characteristics. A better understanding of how
rapid manufacturing may impact specific products or industries may be achieved by
tailoring the methodology to meet the demands of specific products. This may be
accomplished by weighting the criteria so characteristics which are considered more
valuable for a particular industry have greater influence. Further investigation into specific
industries is highly encouraged, as it may reveal a more accurate assessment of which
products may be affected by rapid manufacturing, and thus allow a more accurate analysis
of how additive technology will impact the global economy.
Spare parts were identified as a potential application of rapid manufacturing given
the high value associated with responsiveness, reduction in part complexity, and low
volume. Unfortunately, the standard trade classification index does not provide a
classification for spare parts thus making its magnitude impossible to quantify in the same
context as other products. However, the SITC Rev 3 provides numerous sub classifications
for generic “parts.” While these generic classifications may include spare parts as well as
regular uncategorized components, their magnitude represents over 25% (US$1.77 trillion)
of globally traded manufactured goods. This represents a significant opportunity for rapid
manufacturing, especially considering that all other applicable products identified as
feasible represent only 2% (US$0.14 trillion) of globally traded manufactured goods. For this
study, the value of a generic “parts” classification were considered only when listed as a
subclassification of products identified as a potential applications of rapid manufacturing.
While rapid manufacturing represents a fundamentally different approach to
traditional manufacturing, it may be successfully integrated with systems of mass
production to deliver value for certain components. This study largely analyzed the ability
of rapid manufacturing to create finished products in their entirety. A closer evaluation of
“parts” may also reveal components of mass produced products which may be impacted by
rapid manufacturing. The magnitude of this impact is unable to be quantified given the lack
of detail regarding “parts” within the SITC Rev 3.

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Rapid manufacturing and the global economy

Rapid manufacturing and the global economy

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