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April 2009


                Todd Hale
             James Russo
           Jonathan Banks
Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
Nielsen Global Scorecard

• Consumers within their respective countries appear to be in a holding pattern as markets digest
  evidence of a possible bottoming of economic weakness.
• No doubt conditions remain tough for global consumers, but levels of decline are moderating .
                KPI Summary                                                                                 GDP
                                                            10%                                                                         2007
                 Chg vs.
                                     Jan        Feb                                                                                     2008
                 Previous                                    8%                                                                         2009 E
                                      09        09
                  Month
                                                             6%
      Brazil
                                                             4%
    Canada
                                                             2%
      China
     France                                                  0%

   Germany                                                  -2%
       India                                                -4%
                                                                   Eastern Europe               Asia        LatAm   North America Western Europe
        Italy
                                                                  • The UBS Global Economics team now expects 2009 world
     Russia
                                                                    GDP to contract -0.4%.
      Spain
                                                                  • Output is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2009.
      United
    Kingdom                                                       • Recovery will plateau at a level well below potential and a
      United                                                        far cry from past recoveries.
      States
     Very Strong Growth: >= +5%            Neutral: between -1 and +1%              Very Negative: <= -4%

                     Growth: between +1 and plus 4%             Negative: between -1% and -4%
Global Top-Line:
                                                                        Weakness but moderation
                             Dec   Jan   Feb       Mar         Apr        May          Jun         Jul          Aug   Sept   Oct   Nov
                             ‘08   ‘09   ‘09       ‘09         ‘09        ‘09          ‘09         ‘09          ‘09    ‘09   ‘09   ;09
    Nielsen Market Index
                                                Moderation in declining unit sales driven by Germany and Italy
                Volume*

    Nielsen Market Index
                                                Dollar Value sales growing but at a slower rate
                Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?                         Consumers moving to store brands, (driven by US, France, Italy & Spain)

  Are shoppers shifting to
         value channels?                        Noticeable shifts in value channels, even in BRIC

Are retailers selling more
             on promotion?                      Promotional activity holding steady

 Are consumers shopping
        more frequently?                        Evidence of trips moving from neutral to negative

 Are consumers spending                         Globally consumers demonstrating stocking up behavior
          more per trip?
        Nielsen Global
  Consumer Confidence^                                       Consumer confidence drops 7 pts globally

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                               *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%               **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                               ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                       is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
February Top-Line:
                                                                Confidence low, Value driving sales
                             US   CA   FR      DE          UK         IT         ES          BR         RU   IN   CN

   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

 Are consumers moving
       to Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?

Are consumers spending
         more per trip?

       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^
  Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
  Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
  Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                            *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
  Negative: between -1% and -4%             **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                            ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
                                            is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  Very Negative: <= -4%
Consumer Confidence:
                                                                                              Weakening but optimism exists

       Do you think your country is in an economic recession?
       Percent saying yes.
120%
100%
 80%
 60%
              98%            91%            95%            95%               95%      92%        91%       88%
 40%                                                                                                                  77%        77%     72%

 20%                                                                                                                                             35%

  0%
              U.K.         Canada           U.S.          Spain             France   Russia      Italy   Germany   53 country   Brazil   India   China
                                                                                                                      avg

       Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months?
       Percent saying yes.
60%
50%
40%
30%                                                                                                                                      56%

20%
                                                                                      29%                                                        32%
                            22%                           24%                                   24%       22%        23%
10%                                        19%                                                                                  18%
             13%                                                            11%
 0%
             U.K.         Canada           U.S.          Spain         France        Russia     Italy    Germany   53 country   Brazil   India   China
                                                                                                                      avg

Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
Global Consumers:
                                                                                        Top 3 actions consumers are
                                                                                        taking to save
                                                     US          CA         FR    DE     UK   IT    ES    BR    RU    IN    CN

              Cut down out of home
                     entertainment
                                                   65%          63%         58%               65%   60%   65%   65%   52%   37%

               Cut down on take away
                               meals
                                                                                  64%

                   Spend less on new
                              clothes
                                                   63%          55%         65%   66%   68%   72%   62%   71%   65%   61%

                    Switch to cheaper
                      grocery brands
                                                                55%         63%   69%   68%         63%

                    Cut down on phone
                             expenses
                                                                                                          74%

                        Save on gas and
                              electricity
                                                   71%                                  71%                           53%

                            Cut back on
                      holidays/vacations
                                                                                              50%

                  Seek better deals on
                 credit cards, loans etc
                                                                                                                            37%

                       Delay technology
                               upgrades
                                                                                                                54%         40%


Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
Regional Insights
North American
                                                 Summary

• What You Need To Know:
  – February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across
    fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on
    shopping trips in the U.S..
  – Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S.,
    they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as
    many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of
    the year
  – There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales
    across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since
    August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened.
  – Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still
    holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value
    through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature
    price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL
    remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales.
  – Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping
    continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store,
    they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices.
  – Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of
    Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
Western Europe
                                                     Summary
• What You Need to know:
  – While the economies of Western Europe remain solidly within a recessionary cycle, the
    doom and gloom reported in the press is not widely observed in Nielsen data which is
    skewed towards consumable items.
  – Food typically accounts for 15% of household expenditure. Therefore, the grocery
    industry whilst not recession-proof, is recession resistant, and indeed gains when
    diners opt for a ‘big night in’ instead of a ‘big night out'. The for-profit sector of food-
    service has come under increasing pressure.
  – Shopping frequency restored after visible decline during the inflation spike of 2007.
  – Manufacturers revived their promotional programs to capture the promotion seekers for
    their brands.
  – The progress of private label is quite disparate across categories and countries. The
    progress is essentially in line with the baseline growth we have witnessed over the past
    few years.
  – Across Western Europe, with the exception of Spain, mired in a steep decline, the
    amounts per trip has shown respectable increases of 1% to 4% growth
BRIC Summary

• What You Need to know:
  – Consumers in fragmented retail markets are increasingly moving to value oriented
    trade retailers.
  – The local grocer in India, although still dominant, is seeing a steady erosion of
    customer base and share of spends.
  – Consumers’ acceptance of the supermarket/ hypermarket (S/H) channel has kept
    pace with the retailers store expansion.
  – In India, modern trade focus shifts to right sizing, but growth plan on hypermarkets
    continue to be on track.
  – Consumers in Russia are becoming more price conscious, shoppers are looking for
    the stores which can provide them wider choices and everything they need in one
    shop. Hypermarkets and discounters appear to be well positioned to deliver on
    these consumer preferences.
  – Increasingly Russian retailers are switching to assortment optimization. This desired
    anti-crisis strategy remains affective in the current situation.
  – While crisis has become a challenge for many, it has opened up new opportunities
    on the market both for the existing players and for the newcomers. It is a good
    moment for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and in the long term perspective we
    expect the growth of retail concentration in Russia.
Country Highlights &
Insights
USA Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan         Feb        Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09          09        09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key USA Economic
                                               Measures

                                       2007    2008    2009E   2010E

              GDP                      2.0%     1.1%   -2.2%    2.2%

              Consumer Expenditure     2.8%    0.2%    -1.8%    2.1%

              Inflation Rate           2.9%    3.8%    -0.2%    1.5%

              Unemployment Rate        4.6%    5.8%     8.5%    8.6%

              Savings Rate             0.6%     1.8%    4.8%    5.3%




       Rising Unemployment and Declining Consumer Expenditures Has US Economy in
                       Worst Shape in at Least a Quarter Century


Source: UBS
Canada Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan         Feb        Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09          09        09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Canada
                                                  Economic Measures

                                           2007    2008    2009E    2010E

               GDP                         2.7%    0.6%    -0.4%    2.0%

               Consumer Expenditure        4.5%    3.3%     1.0%    2.0%

               Inflation Rate              2.1%    2.4%     0.7%    2.4%

               Unemployment Rate           6.0%     6.1%    7.2%    7.6%

               Savings Rate                2.7%    3.6%     4.7%    4.7%



         Rising Unemployment and Lower Consumer Expenditures Should Lead to GDP
                              Contraction in 2009 in Canada


Source: UBS
France Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key France
                                                  Economic Measures

                                          2007     2008     2009E    2010E

              GDP                         2.1%     0.8%     -1.4%    0.6%

              Consumer Expenditure        2.5%     1.1%     -0.1%    0.7%

              Inflation Rate              1.6%     3.2%     0.6%     1.9%

              Unemployment Rate           8.0%     7.3%     8.5%     8.9%

              Savings Rate                15.8%    16.2%    16.7%    16.8%




       Record Savings Rates Lead to Lower Consumer Expenditures and Contracting GDP
                                      Growth in France



Source: UBS
Germany Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Germany
                                                Economic Measures

                                         2007    2008    2009E    2010E

              GDP                        2.6%    1.0%     -2.7%    0.8%

              Consumer Expenditure      -0.3%    -0.3%    -0.3%    0.1%

              Inflation Rate             2.3%    2.7%     0.4%     2.0%

              Unemployment Rate          8.9%    7.7%     8.5%     9.5%

              Savings Rate              10.9%    11.4%   12.5%    12.6%




      German Unemployment Continues to Rise More than Expected, Likely to Reach 9%
                                    by Year End


Source: UBS
UK Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key UK
                                                    Economic Measures

                                             2007     2008    2009E    2010E

               GDP                           3.0%    0.7%     -3.0%    0.5%

               Consumer Expenditure          3.0%    1.4%     -3.1%    -0.2%

               Inflation Rate                2.3%    3.6%     1.1%     1.6%

               Unemployment Rate             2.5%    3.3%     6.0%     7.4%

               Savings Rate                  2.2%    1.0%     5.2%     7.7%




              4Q08 GDP Contracts 1.5%, UK Now Facing First Recession in 16 Years



Source: UBS
Italy Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09         09         09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Italy
                                                  Economic Measures

                                           2007     2008    2009E    2010E

              GDP                          1.4%    -0.5%    -1.9%    0.4%

              Consumer Expenditure         1.5%    -0.4%    -0.4%    0.5%

              Inflation Rate               2.0%     3.5%     1.7%    2.0%

              Unemployment Rate            6.2%     6.7%     7.9%    8.5%

              Savings Rate                 9.8%     9.2%     9.2%    9.2%




        Unemployment Rate Expected to Jump in Italy During 09, Leading to Recession



Source: UBS
Spain Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Spain
                                                   Economic Measures

                                            2007    2008    2009E    2010E

                GDP                         3.7%    1.0%    -2.7%    0.0%

                Consumer Expenditure        3.4%    0.4%    -2.4%    0.1%

                Inflation Rate              2.8%    4.1%     1.5%    2.1%

                Unemployment Rate           8.3%    11.0%   14.8%    16.5%

                Savings Rate               10.4%    9.2%    11.5%    11.2%




         Trouble Ahead in Spain as Unemployment Rises Rapidly and More Bad News
                             Expected from Real Estate Market



Source: UBS
Brazil Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Brazil
                                              Economic Measures

                                       2007    2008    2009E     2010E

              GDP                      5.7%    5.1%    1.2%       3.7%

              Consumer Expenditure       -       -       -          -

              Inflation Rate           4.5%    5.9%    4.9%       4.5%

              Unemployment Rate          -       -       -          -

              Savings Rate               -       -       -          -




     Still Forecasting Brazil GDP Growth in 2009, But Growth Rate Likely to Slow


Source: UBS
Russia Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key Russia
                                                 Economic Measures

                                          2007     2008     2009E    2010E

              GDP                         8.1%     7.2%     3.5%     4.5%

              Consumer Expenditure       12.8%     13.0%    6.0%     5.0%

              Inflation Rate              9.0%     14.0%    10.9%    8.0%

              Unemployment Rate             -        -        -        -

              Savings Rate                  -        -        -        -




        Depreciation of the Ruble Leading to Rapid Slowdown of the Russian Economy



Source: UBS
India Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key India
                                                    Economic Measures

                                             2007     2008    2009E    2010E

                GDP                          9.0%     6.0%     5.1%     7.4%

                Consumer Expenditure           -        -        -        -

                Inflation Rate               6.2%     8.8%     6.0%     6.5%

                Unemployment Rate              -        -        -        -

                Savings Rate                   -        -        -        -




              India GDP Growth Likely to Slow as Consumption and Exports Decline



Source: UBS
China Summary
                             Jul   Aug   Sept      Oct        Nov        Dec         Jan        Feb         Mar   Apr   May   Jun
                             08     08    08       08         08         08           09        09          09    09    09     09
   Nielsen Market Index
               Volume*

   Nielsen Market Index
               Value**

Are consumers moving to
          Store Brands?

 Are shoppers shifting to
        value channels?

     Are retailers selling
    more on promotion?

Are consumers shopping
       more frequently?
Are consumers spending
         more per trip?
       Nielsen Global
 Consumer Confidence^

   Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
   Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
   Neutral: between -1 and +1%
                                                *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
   Negative: between -1% and -4%                **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
                                                ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
   Very Negative: <= -4%                        is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Key China
                                                    Economic Measures

                                            2007     2008     2009E    2010E

              GDP                          13.0%     9.0%     6.5%     7.5%

              Consumer Expenditure         10.6%     8.5%     7.0%     7.8%

              Inflation Rate                4.8%     5.9%     0.2%     1.0%

              Unemployment Rate             4.0%     4.0%     4.2%     4.5%

              Savings Rate                    -        -        -        -




              Stimulus Policy Measures in China Could Reaccelerate Growth in 2H09




Source: UBS
Contact List

• United States:
  – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com
  – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com
• Western Europe:
  – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, jean-jacques.vandenheede@nielsen.com
  – Jonathan Banks, jonathan.banks@nielsen.com
• Canada:
  – Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com
• Russia:
  – Natalia Ignatyeva, Natalia.ignatyeva@nielsen.com
• India:
  – Jayashree Janardhanan, Jayashree.Janardhanan@nielsen.com
• China:
  – Phoebe Lam, phoebe.lam@nielsen.com

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Economic Current in April

  • 1. April 2009 Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
  • 2. Nielsen Global Scorecard • Consumers within their respective countries appear to be in a holding pattern as markets digest evidence of a possible bottoming of economic weakness. • No doubt conditions remain tough for global consumers, but levels of decline are moderating . KPI Summary GDP 10% 2007 Chg vs. Jan Feb 2008 Previous 8% 2009 E 09 09 Month 6% Brazil 4% Canada 2% China France 0% Germany -2% India -4% Eastern Europe Asia LatAm North America Western Europe Italy • The UBS Global Economics team now expects 2009 world Russia GDP to contract -0.4%. Spain • Output is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2009. United Kingdom • Recovery will plateau at a level well below potential and a United far cry from past recoveries. States Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: <= -4% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between -1% and -4%
  • 3. Global Top-Line: Weakness but moderation Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ;09 Nielsen Market Index Moderation in declining unit sales driven by Germany and Italy Volume* Nielsen Market Index Dollar Value sales growing but at a slower rate Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Consumers moving to store brands, (driven by US, France, Italy & Spain) Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Noticeable shifts in value channels, even in BRIC Are retailers selling more on promotion? Promotional activity holding steady Are consumers shopping more frequently? Evidence of trips moving from neutral to negative Are consumers spending Globally consumers demonstrating stocking up behavior more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Consumer confidence drops 7 pts globally Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 4. February Top-Line: Confidence low, Value driving sales US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR RU IN CN Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77 Very Negative: <= -4%
  • 5. Consumer Confidence: Weakening but optimism exists Do you think your country is in an economic recession? Percent saying yes. 120% 100% 80% 60% 98% 91% 95% 95% 95% 92% 91% 88% 40% 77% 77% 72% 20% 35% 0% U.K. Canada U.S. Spain France Russia Italy Germany 53 country Brazil India China avg Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? Percent saying yes. 60% 50% 40% 30% 56% 20% 29% 32% 22% 24% 24% 22% 23% 10% 19% 18% 13% 11% 0% U.K. Canada U.S. Spain France Russia Italy Germany 53 country Brazil India China avg Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
  • 6. Global Consumers: Top 3 actions consumers are taking to save US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR RU IN CN Cut down out of home entertainment 65% 63% 58% 65% 60% 65% 65% 52% 37% Cut down on take away meals 64% Spend less on new clothes 63% 55% 65% 66% 68% 72% 62% 71% 65% 61% Switch to cheaper grocery brands 55% 63% 69% 68% 63% Cut down on phone expenses 74% Save on gas and electricity 71% 71% 53% Cut back on holidays/vacations 50% Seek better deals on credit cards, loans etc 37% Delay technology upgrades 54% 40% Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
  • 8. North American Summary • What You Need To Know: – February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on shopping trips in the U.S.. – Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S., they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of the year – There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened. – Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales. – Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store, they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices. – Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
  • 9. Western Europe Summary • What You Need to know: – While the economies of Western Europe remain solidly within a recessionary cycle, the doom and gloom reported in the press is not widely observed in Nielsen data which is skewed towards consumable items. – Food typically accounts for 15% of household expenditure. Therefore, the grocery industry whilst not recession-proof, is recession resistant, and indeed gains when diners opt for a ‘big night in’ instead of a ‘big night out'. The for-profit sector of food- service has come under increasing pressure. – Shopping frequency restored after visible decline during the inflation spike of 2007. – Manufacturers revived their promotional programs to capture the promotion seekers for their brands. – The progress of private label is quite disparate across categories and countries. The progress is essentially in line with the baseline growth we have witnessed over the past few years. – Across Western Europe, with the exception of Spain, mired in a steep decline, the amounts per trip has shown respectable increases of 1% to 4% growth
  • 10. BRIC Summary • What You Need to know: – Consumers in fragmented retail markets are increasingly moving to value oriented trade retailers. – The local grocer in India, although still dominant, is seeing a steady erosion of customer base and share of spends. – Consumers’ acceptance of the supermarket/ hypermarket (S/H) channel has kept pace with the retailers store expansion. – In India, modern trade focus shifts to right sizing, but growth plan on hypermarkets continue to be on track. – Consumers in Russia are becoming more price conscious, shoppers are looking for the stores which can provide them wider choices and everything they need in one shop. Hypermarkets and discounters appear to be well positioned to deliver on these consumer preferences. – Increasingly Russian retailers are switching to assortment optimization. This desired anti-crisis strategy remains affective in the current situation. – While crisis has become a challenge for many, it has opened up new opportunities on the market both for the existing players and for the newcomers. It is a good moment for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and in the long term perspective we expect the growth of retail concentration in Russia.
  • 12. USA Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 13. Key USA Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 2.0% 1.1% -2.2% 2.2% Consumer Expenditure 2.8% 0.2% -1.8% 2.1% Inflation Rate 2.9% 3.8% -0.2% 1.5% Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.8% 8.5% 8.6% Savings Rate 0.6% 1.8% 4.8% 5.3% Rising Unemployment and Declining Consumer Expenditures Has US Economy in Worst Shape in at Least a Quarter Century Source: UBS
  • 14. Canada Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 15. Key Canada Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 2.7% 0.6% -0.4% 2.0% Consumer Expenditure 4.5% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0% Inflation Rate 2.1% 2.4% 0.7% 2.4% Unemployment Rate 6.0% 6.1% 7.2% 7.6% Savings Rate 2.7% 3.6% 4.7% 4.7% Rising Unemployment and Lower Consumer Expenditures Should Lead to GDP Contraction in 2009 in Canada Source: UBS
  • 16. France Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 17. Key France Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 2.1% 0.8% -1.4% 0.6% Consumer Expenditure 2.5% 1.1% -0.1% 0.7% Inflation Rate 1.6% 3.2% 0.6% 1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.3% 8.5% 8.9% Savings Rate 15.8% 16.2% 16.7% 16.8% Record Savings Rates Lead to Lower Consumer Expenditures and Contracting GDP Growth in France Source: UBS
  • 18. Germany Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 19. Key Germany Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 2.6% 1.0% -2.7% 0.8% Consumer Expenditure -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.1% Inflation Rate 2.3% 2.7% 0.4% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 7.7% 8.5% 9.5% Savings Rate 10.9% 11.4% 12.5% 12.6% German Unemployment Continues to Rise More than Expected, Likely to Reach 9% by Year End Source: UBS
  • 20. UK Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 21. Key UK Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 3.0% 0.7% -3.0% 0.5% Consumer Expenditure 3.0% 1.4% -3.1% -0.2% Inflation Rate 2.3% 3.6% 1.1% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 2.5% 3.3% 6.0% 7.4% Savings Rate 2.2% 1.0% 5.2% 7.7% 4Q08 GDP Contracts 1.5%, UK Now Facing First Recession in 16 Years Source: UBS
  • 22. Italy Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 23. Key Italy Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 1.4% -0.5% -1.9% 0.4% Consumer Expenditure 1.5% -0.4% -0.4% 0.5% Inflation Rate 2.0% 3.5% 1.7% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.7% 7.9% 8.5% Savings Rate 9.8% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% Unemployment Rate Expected to Jump in Italy During 09, Leading to Recession Source: UBS
  • 24. Spain Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 25. Key Spain Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 3.7% 1.0% -2.7% 0.0% Consumer Expenditure 3.4% 0.4% -2.4% 0.1% Inflation Rate 2.8% 4.1% 1.5% 2.1% Unemployment Rate 8.3% 11.0% 14.8% 16.5% Savings Rate 10.4% 9.2% 11.5% 11.2% Trouble Ahead in Spain as Unemployment Rises Rapidly and More Bad News Expected from Real Estate Market Source: UBS
  • 26. Brazil Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 27. Key Brazil Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 5.7% 5.1% 1.2% 3.7% Consumer Expenditure - - - - Inflation Rate 4.5% 5.9% 4.9% 4.5% Unemployment Rate - - - - Savings Rate - - - - Still Forecasting Brazil GDP Growth in 2009, But Growth Rate Likely to Slow Source: UBS
  • 28. Russia Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 29. Key Russia Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 8.1% 7.2% 3.5% 4.5% Consumer Expenditure 12.8% 13.0% 6.0% 5.0% Inflation Rate 9.0% 14.0% 10.9% 8.0% Unemployment Rate - - - - Savings Rate - - - - Depreciation of the Ruble Leading to Rapid Slowdown of the Russian Economy Source: UBS
  • 30. India Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 31. Key India Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 9.0% 6.0% 5.1% 7.4% Consumer Expenditure - - - - Inflation Rate 6.2% 8.8% 6.0% 6.5% Unemployment Rate - - - - Savings Rate - - - - India GDP Growth Likely to Slow as Consumption and Exports Decline Source: UBS
  • 32. China Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
  • 33. Key China Economic Measures 2007 2008 2009E 2010E GDP 13.0% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5% Consumer Expenditure 10.6% 8.5% 7.0% 7.8% Inflation Rate 4.8% 5.9% 0.2% 1.0% Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% Savings Rate - - - - Stimulus Policy Measures in China Could Reaccelerate Growth in 2H09 Source: UBS
  • 34. Contact List • United States: – James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com – Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com • Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, jean-jacques.vandenheede@nielsen.com – Jonathan Banks, jonathan.banks@nielsen.com • Canada: – Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com • Russia: – Natalia Ignatyeva, Natalia.ignatyeva@nielsen.com • India: – Jayashree Janardhanan, Jayashree.Janardhanan@nielsen.com • China: – Phoebe Lam, phoebe.lam@nielsen.com