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Enhance the Attractiveness of Studies in Science and Technology

                   WP 6: Formal Barriers


                        Kevin Kelly
                  Trinity College Dublin
                   WP 6 Co-ordinator
WP 6: Formal Barriers

         Aim of the Work Package:

• To examine the formal barriers to engineering
  education at third-level

• To document & recommend measures to
  facilitate maximally open access to
  engineering higher education without
  compromising standards or unfairly exposing
  unequipped students
WP6 Key Deliverables

Three phases of work:

• Survey of education systems in partner countries

• Comparison Framework

• Report on formal barriers to engineering higher
  education
Status of Deliverables
          1: Survey of Education Systems

Current Status: Completed

• Extensive questionnaire developed and distributed to
  all partners
• Questions investigated national education systems
  from primary level to university entry, regarding
  provision of science, engineering & technology (SET)
  subjects
• Survey data gathered was used to inform other WP 6
  deliverables
Status of Deliverables
             2: Comparison Framework

Current Status: Completed (pending final contributions)

• Aim is to provide ‘at a glance’ information to compare
  partner countries under key headings, relevant to all
  work packages
• Provides necessary context to enable conclusions to
  be drawn between national structures with significant
  variations
• Combination of graphs, tables and textual information
  used
Status of Deliverables
             3: Report on Formal Barriers

Current Status: Finalising report

The report documents:
• main factors restricting access to engineering higher
  education
• research illustrating the impact of these barriers on
  access to engineering
• data analysis of the relationship between entry
  barriers and subsequent student progression


                          14.4.2011
                             6
Report on Formal Barriers
Main categories of barriers identified:

• Entry requirements for engineering courses

• Structures within the school system
 – such as streams which force students to choose at an early age
 between academic or vocational pathways


• Socio-economic factors
 – engineering programmes in several countries appear to be less
 diverse in socio-economic terms than other programmes
1. Entry Requirements
Key points:

• No subject requirements set for entry in Italy and
Belgium

• Mathematics required in all other countries, plus
Physics and Chemistry in most

• Limited students eligible for entry as a result
   – max 12% eligible in Sweden and Ireland
1. Entry Requirements (cont’d)
Do entry requirements serve the intended purpose?

• Evidence found in some partner countries of a link
between achievement in the subjects required for entry,
and subsequent performance in engineering university
programmes

  – e.g. in IST students who have grades lower than those now
  required have significant difficulty in successfully completing the
  programme
1. Entry Requirements (cont’d)
Alternatives to standard entry requirements

• Alternative entry routes exist in most partner countries

• Function: To facilitate access to university for non-
  traditional students & those not meeting standard entry
  requirements

• Proportion of students entering via these means varies
  from 0% (Italy) to 29% (Sweden)
2. High School System
Structural Factors:

• Separation between academic and vocational
  branches of high school in most countries

• This impacts on options for higher education 
  vocational students may not be eligible for academic
  study at university

• Subject specialisation creates further restrictions
   – students who don’t specialise in science/technology may be
    ineligible for engineering programmes
2. High School System (cont’d)
Gender and subject specialisation:

• Persistent gender differences in uptake of
  engineering-relevant subjects, especially Physics

• In Ireland some technology-related subjects are not
  taught in all-girls schools

• Research suggests causal relationship between lower
  % of girls specialising in Physics, Chemistry and
  Mathematics in high school and low numbers of
  female students entering engineering programmes at
  university
3. Socio-economic Factors

• Engineering courses in many countries are less
  accessible to students from lower socio-economic
  backgrounds than other fields (Eurostudent IV)

• This is reflected in several ATTRACT countries
  – in Ireland, Sweden and Italy engineering programmes tend to
   be less socio-economically diverse than other programmes

• In Ireland, PISA mathematics scores were significantly
  higher among students designated as ‘high socio-
  economic status’ than among others
Aalto          Trinity
                      KU Leuven                                          PoliTo            IST          KTH        Uppsala
                                      University        College
      Country           Belgium         Finland         Ireland           Italy         Portugal       Sweden      Sweden
                                         Multi-                                                                     Multi-
University Type         General                         General        Technical        Technical      Technical
                                      disciplinary                                                               disciplinary
National Ranking           #1             n/a             #1               #2              #2             #4          #3

                      Government:    Government:     Government:      Government:     Government:
                                                                                                  Government: Governmen
                         75%            71%             66%              45%             41%
                                                                                                     80%        t: 80%

                                                                      Student fees:
                                                                          10%
    Core Funding
                          Private                   Student fees:                     Student fees:     Private
      Sources                           Private                                                                      Public
                     sources/contrac                    24%                               9%           sources:
                                     donations: 29%                                                                funds: 8%
                     t research: 15%                                    Research                         13%
                                                                      income: 43%
                                                                                                                    Private
                                                                                        Other (own
                      Other: 10%                      Other: 10%       Other: 2%                   Other: 7%       sources:
                                                                                      income): 50%
                                                                                                                     12%
  # of students
   studying to
                         36,820         17,020          11,290           18,792           9,445         14,000      20,000
degree/accredited
professional level
                           9%            25%              6%              75%             94%            100%        12%
·     % studying
                         (4,124         (4,289                          (14,053          (8,832         (14,000     (2,300
    engineering                                      (700 students)
                        students)      students)                       students)        students)      students)   students)
# of advanced or
                         4,454           2,496           3,335                            1,135         1,500        2,000
doctoral students
                          21%            26%             14%              n/a             69%            100%         5%
·     % studying
                                                                                                        (1,500       (100
    engineering      (964 students) (657 students) (460 students)                     (779 students)
                                                                                                       students)   students)
Comparison of high school systems


              Belgium   Ireland   Portugal   Sweden   Finland   Italy
Tracks
(e.g.
                 N         N         Y          Y        Y          Y
literature,
science)
Higher
and lower        N         Y         N          N        N          N
levels
Core
                 Y         N         Y          Y        Y          Y
subjects
Student
choice
                 Y         N         N          Y        Y          N
over
quantity
Structure of Education Systems
Structure of Education Systems
Contact Time in Schools
Exposure to Mathematics
Finland   Ireland   Italy   Portugal   Sweden

               School certificate    Yes       Yes      Yes       Yes       No
                   exams
                                    and/or       -        -     and/or       -


                   Ongoing           Yes       No       No        Yes       Yes
                performance at
                 second-level
   General
                                    and/or       -        -     and/or       -
  admission
requirements
               Entrance exams        Yes       No       No        No        No
                (Managed by
                 institution)
                                       -         -        -     and/or      and


                     Other            n/a      n/a      n/a      Yes†       Yes‡
Portuga
                                     Finland       Ireland      Italy           Sweden
                                                                           l
                                       Yes*         Yes –       No       Yesˠ    Yes
                        Maths
                                                    55% +
                        Physics        Yes*                     No       Yesˠ      Yes
                                                    Approx.
Additional admission
                                       Yes*         10% of      No       Yesˠ      Yes
 requirements for      Chemistry
                                                    courses
Engineering courses
                                       No         require one   No        No    Required
                       Biology                      science                     in certain
                                                    subject                      courses
                                    Advanced         12%        n/a      38%      11%
                                   mathematics:
  % of students who meet STEM          42%
          requirements               Physics/
                                    Chemistry:
                                       17%
Purpose of Barriers

1. Identification of student ability
2. Pre-requisite knowledge (i.e. university
   does not need to teach this!)
Appropriateness & Effectiveness
• Reasons (historical) for design and implementation of
  barriers
• Evidence of whether (appropriate) and how well
  (effective) these barriers work
  • Pre-requisite knowledge – by definition it is effective. Appropriate is
    more difficult to say!
  • Students who pass barriers should do better than those who don’t.
      – Those who don’t pass barriers aren’t let in!
      – Use excess of performance over barriers to measure how well these
        metrics capture ability to progress
Barrier Effectiveness – Italy
Number of students who took a low note at the entry




                                                      250


                                                      200


                                                      150
                       test




                                                      100


                                                      50


                                                       0
                                                            0     8   10   16        18      20       26       28         30   36   38   46

                                                                                number of credits passed the first year
Barrier Effectiveness – Italy
Number of students who took a high note at the entry




                                                       200
                                                       180
                                                       160
                                                       140
                                                       120
                                                       100
                       test




                                                       80
                                                       60
                                                       40
                                                       20
                                                        0
                                                             0     8   10   16        18      20       26       28         30   36   38   46

                                                                                 number of credits passed the first year
Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal

• the variables of parental education level and stage of
  admission were not significant;
• the variables regarding the academic background
  proved all significant, in particular the impact of the
  grade obtained in the secondary education in the
  academic achievement (40% performance
  improvement for every 10 points) and the frequency
  of Physics in Secondary (72% increase in the
  probability of success, compared to those who had
  not);
Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal

• in the socio-economic status and family income dimension, the
  variables gender and household income level were significant,
  showing that women have a higher probability of success than
  men (+10%) and the level of household income below the
  national average increases by 8% school performance;
• regarding the motivations and expectations, it appears that if the
  student doesn’t access his/her first choice of programme (-16%)
  and if he/she student did not anticipate to engage in all subjects
  expecting a good average (-9%) there is a negative impact on
  academic achievement. The early choice of the course (prior to
  the year of admission) has a positive impact on the success rate
  (+22%);
Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal

• academic achievement. The early choice of the
  course (prior to the year of admission) has a positive
  impact on the success rate (+22%);
• contextually it is observed that the fact that a student
  is away from his/her usual residence exerts a
  negative effect on their academic performance (there
  is a 17% decrease in academic performance
  demonstrated by students who are away from
  residence) and that the travel time is also reflected
  negatively (a student who takes more than 1h in each
  travel to IST decreases 10% in academic
  performance).
Factors Analysed - Ireland
• Inputs
  –   Whether a student took a particular subject (binary)
  –   Mark achieved in each subject (0-100)
  –   Degree (one of two available) programme chosen (binary)
  –   Gender (binary)
  –   Year (have things changed over 10 year period) (1-10)
  –   CAO mark (cumulative grade in best 6 subjects) (0-600)
  –   Living at home (binary)


• Outputs
  – Had to take second exam sessions (Binary)
  – Progressed to 2nd year (Binary)
Key questions
• Can we identify those entrants less likely to progress

• How accurately can we do this – i.e. what is the
  balance between correctly identifying those with
  difficulties and incorrectly identifying those who won’t
128 Students
15 Students on average will fail their exams (~12%) – 113 passed
We can select these using various strategies – e.g. random, or
targeting certain individuals
Here for example we are selecting 24 students (we’ll assume we
have some strategy!)
In terms of effective detection/identification, we could measure it
as:
4/15 failing students were correctly identified. This is a True
Positive Rate of 27%
20/113 passing students were incorrectly identified. This is a False
Positive Rate of 17%
A system with perfect discrimination could identify all those failing
students correctly, AND have no students incorrectly identified

Most practical systems will involve some compromise between
incorrectly identifying some students, versus correctly identifying
those who will fail

Graphically this tradeoff can be plotted on something called a
receiver operating characteristic
Receiver Operating Characteristic - Progression
                      1


                     0.9


                     0.8


                     0.7
True Positive Rate




                     0.6

                                                                                                    All Factors
                     0.5
                                                                                                    Random
                     0.4                                                                            CAO

                                                                                                    CAO + Maths
                     0.3


                     0.2


                     0.1


                      0
                           0    0.1     0.2    0.3    0.4           0.5           0.6   0.7   0.8       0.9       1
                                                            False Positive Rate
Receiver Operating Characteristic - First Sitting
                      1


                     0.9


                     0.8


                     0.7
True Positive Rate




                     0.6

                                                                                                      All Factors
                     0.5
                                                                                                      Random

                     0.4                                                                              CAO

                                                                                                      CAO + Maths
                     0.3


                     0.2


                     0.1


                      0
                           0     0.1    0.2     0.3     0.4           0.5           0.6   0.7   0.8       0.9       1
                                                              False Positive Rate
Exam Mark versus Effect Size
0.2



0.1



  0
       0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40   45   50   55   60   65   70   75   80     85   90    95 100


-0.1
                                                                                          Accounting

-0.2



-0.3



-0.4
Logistic Analysis of Performance


 Input       Weighted    Logistic
                                    Probability
Variables     Sum        Function


 [0 / 1]    [- ∞, + ∞]               [0 - 1]
[0 - 100]
Probability of succesful completion of exams
                                       1


                                     0.9


                                     0.8


                                     0.7


                                     0.6


                                     0.5


                                     0.4


                                     0.3


                                     0.2


                                     0.1


                                       0
-4   -3      -2        -1                  0                1   2   3   4
                            Weighted sum of input factors
Previous work in Ireland
 CAO     Maths    English   Student
                            A
                    High
                            B
           High
                            C
                     Low
                            D
  High
                            E
                    High
                            F
           Low
                            G
                     Low
                            H
                            I
                    High
                            J
           High
                            K
                     Low
                            L
  Low
                            M
                    High
                            N
           Low
                            O
                     Low
                            P
Previous work in Ireland
0.0%   10.0%    20.0%   30.0%   40.0%   50.0%   60.0%   70.0%   80.0%   90.0%

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P
100.00%
          Gender Uptake of Various Subjects
90.00%


80.00%


70.00%


60.00%
                                              Female

                                              Male
50.00%


40.00%


30.00%


20.00%


10.00%


 0.00%
10.00%

          Relative Subject Difficulty


 5.00%




 0.00%




 -5.00%




-10.00%

                                        Male
                                        Female


-15.00%
PISA – maths, science & GDP
                                       Finland


                  Ireland



         USA




                                             Sweden   Belgium
               Italy

                            Portugal
PISA – top students in maths & science

“the number of students reaching level 5 or 6 in
mathematics and science will be particularly
important for countries wishing to create a pool of
workers able to advance the frontiers of scientific
and technological knowledge in the future and
compete in the global economy”

– OECD Report – PISA 2009 Results Vol. 1
Percentages of Students at Level 5(6) in
          Maths and Science
Country            Maths         Science
Shanghai           24(26)        20(4)

Finland            16(6)         15(4)
Belgium            14(5)         8(2)

OECD average       9(3)          7(2)

Sweden             8(3)          7(1)
Portugal           7(3)          3(1)
Italy              7(2)          5(1)
Ireland            5(1)          8(1)
Recommendations

Three categories:
a. Changes to admission requirements
b. Structural Changes to Education System
c. Socio-economic and cultural issues

Relative difficulty of implementation
• Easy, moderate or difficult
Recommendations (a)
 Changes to admission requirements

Mathematics
Physics and/or Chemistry
Recommendations (b)
Structural changes to education system

Higher level of preparation in STEM
Later ‘tracking’ of students
Higher core STEM content for all students
Recommendations (c)
  Socio-economic and cultural issues

Need to show relevance of STEM to real life
Encourage more girls
Increase participation from marginal socio-economic
groups

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Attract Project - Formal Barriers

  • 1. Enhance the Attractiveness of Studies in Science and Technology WP 6: Formal Barriers Kevin Kelly Trinity College Dublin WP 6 Co-ordinator
  • 2. WP 6: Formal Barriers Aim of the Work Package: • To examine the formal barriers to engineering education at third-level • To document & recommend measures to facilitate maximally open access to engineering higher education without compromising standards or unfairly exposing unequipped students
  • 3. WP6 Key Deliverables Three phases of work: • Survey of education systems in partner countries • Comparison Framework • Report on formal barriers to engineering higher education
  • 4. Status of Deliverables 1: Survey of Education Systems Current Status: Completed • Extensive questionnaire developed and distributed to all partners • Questions investigated national education systems from primary level to university entry, regarding provision of science, engineering & technology (SET) subjects • Survey data gathered was used to inform other WP 6 deliverables
  • 5. Status of Deliverables 2: Comparison Framework Current Status: Completed (pending final contributions) • Aim is to provide ‘at a glance’ information to compare partner countries under key headings, relevant to all work packages • Provides necessary context to enable conclusions to be drawn between national structures with significant variations • Combination of graphs, tables and textual information used
  • 6. Status of Deliverables 3: Report on Formal Barriers Current Status: Finalising report The report documents: • main factors restricting access to engineering higher education • research illustrating the impact of these barriers on access to engineering • data analysis of the relationship between entry barriers and subsequent student progression 14.4.2011 6
  • 7. Report on Formal Barriers Main categories of barriers identified: • Entry requirements for engineering courses • Structures within the school system – such as streams which force students to choose at an early age between academic or vocational pathways • Socio-economic factors – engineering programmes in several countries appear to be less diverse in socio-economic terms than other programmes
  • 8. 1. Entry Requirements Key points: • No subject requirements set for entry in Italy and Belgium • Mathematics required in all other countries, plus Physics and Chemistry in most • Limited students eligible for entry as a result – max 12% eligible in Sweden and Ireland
  • 9. 1. Entry Requirements (cont’d) Do entry requirements serve the intended purpose? • Evidence found in some partner countries of a link between achievement in the subjects required for entry, and subsequent performance in engineering university programmes – e.g. in IST students who have grades lower than those now required have significant difficulty in successfully completing the programme
  • 10. 1. Entry Requirements (cont’d) Alternatives to standard entry requirements • Alternative entry routes exist in most partner countries • Function: To facilitate access to university for non- traditional students & those not meeting standard entry requirements • Proportion of students entering via these means varies from 0% (Italy) to 29% (Sweden)
  • 11. 2. High School System Structural Factors: • Separation between academic and vocational branches of high school in most countries • This impacts on options for higher education  vocational students may not be eligible for academic study at university • Subject specialisation creates further restrictions – students who don’t specialise in science/technology may be ineligible for engineering programmes
  • 12. 2. High School System (cont’d) Gender and subject specialisation: • Persistent gender differences in uptake of engineering-relevant subjects, especially Physics • In Ireland some technology-related subjects are not taught in all-girls schools • Research suggests causal relationship between lower % of girls specialising in Physics, Chemistry and Mathematics in high school and low numbers of female students entering engineering programmes at university
  • 13. 3. Socio-economic Factors • Engineering courses in many countries are less accessible to students from lower socio-economic backgrounds than other fields (Eurostudent IV) • This is reflected in several ATTRACT countries – in Ireland, Sweden and Italy engineering programmes tend to be less socio-economically diverse than other programmes • In Ireland, PISA mathematics scores were significantly higher among students designated as ‘high socio- economic status’ than among others
  • 14. Aalto Trinity KU Leuven PoliTo IST KTH Uppsala University College Country Belgium Finland Ireland Italy Portugal Sweden Sweden Multi- Multi- University Type General General Technical Technical Technical disciplinary disciplinary National Ranking #1 n/a #1 #2 #2 #4 #3 Government: Government: Government: Government: Government: Government: Governmen 75% 71% 66% 45% 41% 80% t: 80% Student fees: 10% Core Funding Private Student fees: Student fees: Private Sources Private Public sources/contrac 24% 9% sources: donations: 29% funds: 8% t research: 15% Research 13% income: 43% Private Other (own Other: 10% Other: 10% Other: 2% Other: 7% sources: income): 50% 12% # of students studying to 36,820 17,020 11,290 18,792 9,445 14,000 20,000 degree/accredited professional level 9% 25% 6% 75% 94% 100% 12% · % studying (4,124 (4,289 (14,053 (8,832 (14,000 (2,300 engineering (700 students) students) students) students) students) students) students) # of advanced or 4,454 2,496 3,335 1,135 1,500 2,000 doctoral students 21% 26% 14% n/a 69% 100% 5% · % studying (1,500 (100 engineering (964 students) (657 students) (460 students) (779 students) students) students)
  • 15. Comparison of high school systems Belgium Ireland Portugal Sweden Finland Italy Tracks (e.g. N N Y Y Y Y literature, science) Higher and lower N Y N N N N levels Core Y N Y Y Y Y subjects Student choice Y N N Y Y N over quantity
  • 18. Contact Time in Schools
  • 20. Finland Ireland Italy Portugal Sweden School certificate Yes Yes Yes Yes No exams and/or - - and/or - Ongoing Yes No No Yes Yes performance at second-level General and/or - - and/or - admission requirements Entrance exams Yes No No No No (Managed by institution) - - - and/or and Other n/a n/a n/a Yes† Yes‡
  • 21. Portuga Finland Ireland Italy Sweden l Yes* Yes – No Yesˠ Yes Maths 55% + Physics Yes* No Yesˠ Yes Approx. Additional admission Yes* 10% of No Yesˠ Yes requirements for Chemistry courses Engineering courses No require one No No Required Biology science in certain subject courses Advanced 12% n/a 38% 11% mathematics: % of students who meet STEM 42% requirements Physics/ Chemistry: 17%
  • 22. Purpose of Barriers 1. Identification of student ability 2. Pre-requisite knowledge (i.e. university does not need to teach this!)
  • 23. Appropriateness & Effectiveness • Reasons (historical) for design and implementation of barriers • Evidence of whether (appropriate) and how well (effective) these barriers work • Pre-requisite knowledge – by definition it is effective. Appropriate is more difficult to say! • Students who pass barriers should do better than those who don’t. – Those who don’t pass barriers aren’t let in! – Use excess of performance over barriers to measure how well these metrics capture ability to progress
  • 24. Barrier Effectiveness – Italy Number of students who took a low note at the entry 250 200 150 test 100 50 0 0 8 10 16 18 20 26 28 30 36 38 46 number of credits passed the first year
  • 25. Barrier Effectiveness – Italy Number of students who took a high note at the entry 200 180 160 140 120 100 test 80 60 40 20 0 0 8 10 16 18 20 26 28 30 36 38 46 number of credits passed the first year
  • 26. Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal • the variables of parental education level and stage of admission were not significant; • the variables regarding the academic background proved all significant, in particular the impact of the grade obtained in the secondary education in the academic achievement (40% performance improvement for every 10 points) and the frequency of Physics in Secondary (72% increase in the probability of success, compared to those who had not);
  • 27. Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal • in the socio-economic status and family income dimension, the variables gender and household income level were significant, showing that women have a higher probability of success than men (+10%) and the level of household income below the national average increases by 8% school performance; • regarding the motivations and expectations, it appears that if the student doesn’t access his/her first choice of programme (-16%) and if he/she student did not anticipate to engage in all subjects expecting a good average (-9%) there is a negative impact on academic achievement. The early choice of the course (prior to the year of admission) has a positive impact on the success rate (+22%);
  • 28. Barrier Effectiveness – Portugal • academic achievement. The early choice of the course (prior to the year of admission) has a positive impact on the success rate (+22%); • contextually it is observed that the fact that a student is away from his/her usual residence exerts a negative effect on their academic performance (there is a 17% decrease in academic performance demonstrated by students who are away from residence) and that the travel time is also reflected negatively (a student who takes more than 1h in each travel to IST decreases 10% in academic performance).
  • 29. Factors Analysed - Ireland • Inputs – Whether a student took a particular subject (binary) – Mark achieved in each subject (0-100) – Degree (one of two available) programme chosen (binary) – Gender (binary) – Year (have things changed over 10 year period) (1-10) – CAO mark (cumulative grade in best 6 subjects) (0-600) – Living at home (binary) • Outputs – Had to take second exam sessions (Binary) – Progressed to 2nd year (Binary)
  • 30. Key questions • Can we identify those entrants less likely to progress • How accurately can we do this – i.e. what is the balance between correctly identifying those with difficulties and incorrectly identifying those who won’t
  • 32. 15 Students on average will fail their exams (~12%) – 113 passed
  • 33. We can select these using various strategies – e.g. random, or targeting certain individuals
  • 34. Here for example we are selecting 24 students (we’ll assume we have some strategy!) In terms of effective detection/identification, we could measure it as: 4/15 failing students were correctly identified. This is a True Positive Rate of 27% 20/113 passing students were incorrectly identified. This is a False Positive Rate of 17%
  • 35. A system with perfect discrimination could identify all those failing students correctly, AND have no students incorrectly identified Most practical systems will involve some compromise between incorrectly identifying some students, versus correctly identifying those who will fail Graphically this tradeoff can be plotted on something called a receiver operating characteristic
  • 36. Receiver Operating Characteristic - Progression 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 True Positive Rate 0.6 All Factors 0.5 Random 0.4 CAO CAO + Maths 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 False Positive Rate
  • 37. Receiver Operating Characteristic - First Sitting 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 True Positive Rate 0.6 All Factors 0.5 Random 0.4 CAO CAO + Maths 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 False Positive Rate
  • 38. Exam Mark versus Effect Size 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 -0.1 Accounting -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. Logistic Analysis of Performance Input Weighted Logistic Probability Variables Sum Function [0 / 1] [- ∞, + ∞] [0 - 1] [0 - 100]
  • 42. Probability of succesful completion of exams 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Weighted sum of input factors
  • 43. Previous work in Ireland CAO Maths English Student A High B High C Low D High E High F Low G Low H I High J High K Low L Low M High N Low O Low P
  • 44. Previous work in Ireland 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P
  • 45. 100.00% Gender Uptake of Various Subjects 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% Female Male 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
  • 46. 10.00% Relative Subject Difficulty 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% Male Female -15.00%
  • 47. PISA – maths, science & GDP Finland Ireland USA Sweden Belgium Italy Portugal
  • 48. PISA – top students in maths & science “the number of students reaching level 5 or 6 in mathematics and science will be particularly important for countries wishing to create a pool of workers able to advance the frontiers of scientific and technological knowledge in the future and compete in the global economy” – OECD Report – PISA 2009 Results Vol. 1
  • 49. Percentages of Students at Level 5(6) in Maths and Science Country Maths Science Shanghai 24(26) 20(4) Finland 16(6) 15(4) Belgium 14(5) 8(2) OECD average 9(3) 7(2) Sweden 8(3) 7(1) Portugal 7(3) 3(1) Italy 7(2) 5(1) Ireland 5(1) 8(1)
  • 50. Recommendations Three categories: a. Changes to admission requirements b. Structural Changes to Education System c. Socio-economic and cultural issues Relative difficulty of implementation • Easy, moderate or difficult
  • 51. Recommendations (a) Changes to admission requirements Mathematics Physics and/or Chemistry
  • 52. Recommendations (b) Structural changes to education system Higher level of preparation in STEM Later ‘tracking’ of students Higher core STEM content for all students
  • 53. Recommendations (c) Socio-economic and cultural issues Need to show relevance of STEM to real life Encourage more girls Increase participation from marginal socio-economic groups