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Learning to shoot puppies
Let’s be honest ….

 Most of you have products /
ideas only a mother could love !
The biggest 3 mistakes of Entrepreneurs


1. Investing in the wrong business


2. Staying too long in the wrong business.. (after you
   should know it is time to change…)


3. People don’t buy your product or service ‘cause they
   understand why they should…
I will see it when I believe it
                  vs.
   I will believe it when I see it


Too much research is the first type
An example: global warming

  Hot summers              Cold summers
  Warm winters             Cold winters


  Evidence of              Evidence of
  global warming           global warming

Clearly there is evidence of global warming ?!
Solutions …

Issues                               Solutions
• We often do research to check      • Objective criteria in place before
   our brilliant ideas                  the research starts
• SUGGING (Selling under the guise       – Is 35% planned purchase good or
                                           bad
   of market research)
                                     • Clearly define your biases before
                                        you start
                                     • Focus on insight (vs.
                                        confirmation)
                                     • Do regular reality checks



                                                        6
You’re not alone !
‘‘More than nine out of ten consumable products
 launched in the last ten years offered absolutely
         nothing new to the consumer.

More than eight out of ten new products fail. You
don’t need to be a statistician to realize there’s a
    correlation between the two numbers.’’

                -- Robert McMath
Arguing the other direction…

    Why is this a bad idea…

    If it fails, why will it fail…

And then deciding what can
be done about it…
A checklist for ideas…

• Is there a benefit (real or perceived)
• People willing to pay (enough)
• Cost of cut-through acceptable
• People will see the benefit buy again / recommend
  to others
• Will someone hate it
Pets.com   Kosmo   Despair.com   Etoys.com   Petrock   Flooz   Webvan
Is there a benefit (real or
percieved)

People willing to pay (enough)


Cost of cut-through acceptable

People will see the benefit buy
again / recommend to others

Will someone hate it



Kill Puppy (0 = kill, 1 = love)
Pets.com

Pet supplies via the
      internet

Save big, save time
   Stay at home



         11
12
Kosmo.com

Instant delivery of
products purchased
via the internet in big
cities

Order a wide variety
of products, from
movies to snack
food, and get them
delivered to your
door for
free within an hour.


          13
Despair.com

We hate all the senseless, wasted time on employee motivation and un-
                           founded optimism

  We imagine you do to, buy our products and show your true colors


                                                     14
Continuous effort is the key to unlocking your potential
                                            15
              Winston Churchill
16
Etoys.com

The new place to
buy toys. Find you
  want on the
     internet



        17
18
Petrock.com

Pets take a lot of
time and energy.
Your kids can have
almost as much fun
with a pet rock.

We even include a
care guide




        19
20
21
Webvan.com

Buying groceries should be
 easier. With webvan you
can get all your groceries,
so you have time for other
          things




           22
23
Now the most important question
             Why would this business fail …
Why would it fail …


Pets.com


Kosmo


Despair.com


Etoys.com


Petrock.com


Flooz


Webvan
25
Costs per stage

Budget

           The time to
           Make mistakes !




         Ideas, screening
         Concept, analysis

                                                 Time

                      Prod.   Test   commercialization
                      devel   mktg
Can you ask the experts ???
   “I think there’s a world market for about five
        computers.” (President of IBM, 1943)

   “TV won’t be able to hold on to any market it
captures after the first six months. People will soon
 get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
        (President of 20th Century Fox, 1946)
Should consumers be followed or
            led ?

                             Mobile phone
                             Computers
                             Internet…




                        28
Not all new products are
        revolutions !

 There are many holes in the
markets, but fewer markets in
         the holes ..
A checklist …

• Talk to 20 people (that are not your friends)
• If no one hates the idea, be scared
• Ask people “if this fails” why would it fail (you’ll get a
  lot more information than asking what they think of
  the idea !)
• Keep it simple … check do people really understand
Remember better is never enough




                   Fat Bastard is priced higher,
                   tastes less good but outsells
                   Bilton 10 to 1…
A reading list

• The wisdom of crowds … how you can use non-
  experts to get answers to tough questions
• The start-ups owners manual..Chapter 3 customer
  discovery
• William Harmon- An incomplete guide to the future…
  how to see what paradigms are affecting the way the
  you see the future

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Founder institute learning to shoot puppies

  • 2. Let’s be honest …. Most of you have products / ideas only a mother could love !
  • 3. The biggest 3 mistakes of Entrepreneurs 1. Investing in the wrong business 2. Staying too long in the wrong business.. (after you should know it is time to change…) 3. People don’t buy your product or service ‘cause they understand why they should…
  • 4. I will see it when I believe it vs. I will believe it when I see it Too much research is the first type
  • 5. An example: global warming Hot summers Cold summers Warm winters Cold winters Evidence of Evidence of global warming global warming Clearly there is evidence of global warming ?!
  • 6. Solutions … Issues Solutions • We often do research to check • Objective criteria in place before our brilliant ideas the research starts • SUGGING (Selling under the guise – Is 35% planned purchase good or bad of market research) • Clearly define your biases before you start • Focus on insight (vs. confirmation) • Do regular reality checks 6
  • 7. You’re not alone ! ‘‘More than nine out of ten consumable products launched in the last ten years offered absolutely nothing new to the consumer. More than eight out of ten new products fail. You don’t need to be a statistician to realize there’s a correlation between the two numbers.’’ -- Robert McMath
  • 8. Arguing the other direction… Why is this a bad idea… If it fails, why will it fail… And then deciding what can be done about it…
  • 9. A checklist for ideas… • Is there a benefit (real or perceived) • People willing to pay (enough) • Cost of cut-through acceptable • People will see the benefit buy again / recommend to others • Will someone hate it
  • 10. Pets.com Kosmo Despair.com Etoys.com Petrock Flooz Webvan Is there a benefit (real or percieved) People willing to pay (enough) Cost of cut-through acceptable People will see the benefit buy again / recommend to others Will someone hate it Kill Puppy (0 = kill, 1 = love)
  • 11. Pets.com Pet supplies via the internet Save big, save time Stay at home 11
  • 12. 12
  • 13. Kosmo.com Instant delivery of products purchased via the internet in big cities Order a wide variety of products, from movies to snack food, and get them delivered to your door for free within an hour. 13
  • 14. Despair.com We hate all the senseless, wasted time on employee motivation and un- founded optimism We imagine you do to, buy our products and show your true colors 14
  • 15. Continuous effort is the key to unlocking your potential 15 Winston Churchill
  • 16. 16
  • 17. Etoys.com The new place to buy toys. Find you want on the internet 17
  • 18. 18
  • 19. Petrock.com Pets take a lot of time and energy. Your kids can have almost as much fun with a pet rock. We even include a care guide 19
  • 20. 20
  • 21. 21
  • 22. Webvan.com Buying groceries should be easier. With webvan you can get all your groceries, so you have time for other things 22
  • 23. 23
  • 24. Now the most important question Why would this business fail … Why would it fail … Pets.com Kosmo Despair.com Etoys.com Petrock.com Flooz Webvan
  • 25. 25
  • 26. Costs per stage Budget The time to Make mistakes ! Ideas, screening Concept, analysis Time Prod. Test commercialization devel mktg
  • 27. Can you ask the experts ??? “I think there’s a world market for about five computers.” (President of IBM, 1943) “TV won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” (President of 20th Century Fox, 1946)
  • 28. Should consumers be followed or led ? Mobile phone Computers Internet… 28
  • 29. Not all new products are revolutions ! There are many holes in the markets, but fewer markets in the holes ..
  • 30. A checklist … • Talk to 20 people (that are not your friends) • If no one hates the idea, be scared • Ask people “if this fails” why would it fail (you’ll get a lot more information than asking what they think of the idea !) • Keep it simple … check do people really understand
  • 31. Remember better is never enough Fat Bastard is priced higher, tastes less good but outsells Bilton 10 to 1…
  • 32. A reading list • The wisdom of crowds … how you can use non- experts to get answers to tough questions • The start-ups owners manual..Chapter 3 customer discovery • William Harmon- An incomplete guide to the future… how to see what paradigms are affecting the way the you see the future