At the intersection of climate change and a world with peaking oil production is an opportunity to focus on strategies that reduce both emissions and oil dependence. These strategies can contribute to a healthier region, but also help to create more resilient businesses, infrastructures, and a more resilient regional economy.

1. Planning for Peak Oil
and Climate Change
Bryn Davidson
B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
Building Sustainability
& Resiliency Into Your
Business

4. Creating cities
and businesses
that are
both sustainable
and resilient

5. Creating cities
and businesses
that are
both sustainable
and resilient

6. Long Term
1
2 Short Term
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient

7. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient

8. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2
Understanding Peak Oil
& Climate Change Scenarios!
Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient

9. 1 Understanding Peak Oil

10. US Domestic Oil Production
1 Understanding Peak Oil

11. 1 Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios

12. 1 Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios
…………………Today

13. Crude oil plateau
2005 – 2012…
1
In many
plausible
scenarios we
could face a
rapid decline in
available oil
Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios

14. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning

15. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
Do your long term projects retain their value in a future
shaped by peak oil and climate change impacts?

16. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
WA:
Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
BC:
‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
Do these projects retain their value in a future shaped
by peak oil and climate change impacts?

17. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
Why are we only planning
for a future that is just
like the past?

18. 1 Peak Oil Literacy & Scenario Planning
Why are we only planning
for a future that is just
like the past?
Forecast
Reality

19. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
2006 2011

20. 1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient

21. Plan for transient shocks!
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient

22. 2 Plan for transient shocks

23. 2 Plan for transient shocks
US Domestic Oil Production

24. 2 Plan for transient shocks

25. “Lesley Hopson used to ride to work in a Cadillac
Escalade. Then her twice weekly trips to the gas station
started to cost $90 each. Now, she's taking the 851 SMART
transit bus from her home in the suburbs to work in
downtown Detroit.
„Gas hit my maximum,‟ she says.”
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes

26. 2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes

27. Concern for the
environment &
climate change is
critical…
…but what really
drives change ‘at
scale’?
- Price Spikes
- Recession
- Rationing
- Shortages
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes

28. 4 ‘Transition’ Shocks from the combined
impacts of peak oil and climate change:
- Price Spikes
- Recession
- Rationing
- Shortages
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes

29. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

30. Peak
Oil
Climate
Change
The resilient post-carbon economy
Reducing both Oil Dependence and Emissions

31. Peak
Oil
Climate
Change
The resilient post-carbon economy
Reducing both Oil Dependence and Emissions
Truck running on local
natural gas from land-
fills

32. Support regional investments in electrified rail
(skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

33. Support electric mobility for individuals & families.
Move employees and customers without oil.
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

34. ‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

35. Support Bike Lanes & Pedestrian Amenities:
Not just for health and the environment…
A cost effective way to facilitate ‘Post-Carbon’
consumer and employee mobility
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

36. New Opportunities
New businesses niches can develop in response to
shocks & rapidly changing consumer demands
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

37. Create businesses - and a
regional economy - that can
function during an oil shock.
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
Houston (late 20th c.)
Vancouver Region, 2010 Olympics

38. Support ‘Eco-density’
& Infill Housing
Give people the ability to live
and work with less oil
(and less carbon).
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3

39. Invest with an eye to multiple futures
….including peak oil and climate change1
2 Prepare for the shocks that we‟re likely to see,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
Help create a resilient post-carbon economy
… good bets reduce both emissions and oil dependence3

40. Bryn Davidson
B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
bryn@dynamiccities.org
604.728.0606