Impact of global warming and Green IT in the Netherlands and possible solutions by SURFnet

1. Optical Networks & Green IT Bill St. Arnaud Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

3. Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2Since Industrial Era Began Source: David JC MacKay, Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air (2009) 388 ppm in 2010 Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age

4. Global Climatic Disruption Example:The Arctic Sea Ice “A pervasive cooling of the Arctic in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. It was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000. The most recent 10-year interval (1999–2008) was the warmest of the past 200 decades.” Mean of all records transformed to summer temperature anomaly relative to the 1961–1990 reference period, with first-order linear trend for all records through 1900 with 2 standard deviations Science v. 325 pp 1236 (September 4, 2009)

5. Global Average Temperature

6. 2009 second warmest year ever

7. Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

9. 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe

10. http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990

11. Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today

12. Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice

13. With BAU we are talking about 5-6°C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 YearsMIT

14. Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions Weaver et al., GRL (2007) All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

15. The Earth is Warming Over 100 Times Faster TodayThan During the Last Ice Age Warming! http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/program_history/keeling_curve_lessons.html CO2 Has Risen From 335 to 385ppm (50ppm) in 30 years or 1.6 ppm per Year CO2 Rose From 185 to 265ppm (80ppm) in 6000 years or 1.33 ppm per Century

16. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

17. WAIS Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Sits on land below sea level Can easily break up once sea water gets under ice Originally thought that breakup would take hundreds of years New evidence indicates that breakup will happen within 40 years when planet warms up 1C (we are already up .8C) Sea levels would be 3.3m – 4.8m

18. Urgency of Action “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

19. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! According to IEA ICT will represent 40% of all energy consumption by 2030 www.smart2020.org ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724) Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

20. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 www.smart2020.org Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit PCs Are Biggest Problem Telecom & Internet fastest growing

21. IT biggest power draw Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Energy Consumption Typical Building Buildings 50% Lighting 11% Manufacturing 25% IT Equipment 30-40% Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

22. Digital vs Traditional appliances

23. Growth Projections Data Centers Half of ICT consumption is data centers In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

24. The Challenge of Energy Efficiency Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes No question it save money, but does little for the environment But greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

25. Power Consumption of IP network Source: Rod Tucker

26. Challenge of efficiency Source: Rod Tucker

27. Total Energy Cost of Public Cloud and IP Transport http://people.eng.unimelb.edu.au/rtucker/publications/files/Baliga_Ayre_Hinton_Tucker_JRLStrTrans.pdf

28. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf Local wind/solar will be an important component

29. Uncongested optical networks essential Optical networks have much smaller footprint than routed networks Energy consumption and CO2 not linear with bandwidth Computing and storage will be delivered by a relatively small number of international mega-scale data centers Datacenters, large science instrument and clouds will increasingly be at remote locations e.g. Norway, Iceland, Canada Transfer of virtual machines from site to site requires large instantaneous bandwidth Impossible to know what will be source destination sites for VM beforehand So mirroring not practical

30. Grand Challenge – Building solutions using renewable energy only Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power

31. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC. It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

32. GreenStar Network World’s first zero carbon network Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and Belgium to be added shortly http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

33. How it will be achieved: GreenStar uses virtualization technologies to allow the nodes in a network (both hosts and network devices) to change its location based on renewable energy availability (hydro, solar, wind). MANTICORE (Europe) and GSN will collaborate in a joint experimentation to identify and try to address the issues of having the nodes in the network powered by unreliable power sources. MANTICORE and GSN will use a joint infrastructure, with some nodes powered by renewable energy sources, to experiment with and validate the scenarios identified by both projects. 28 Carbon neutral infrastructures Use (IaaS) services to contribute to the research performed in the GreenStar Network (GSN) project to enable carbon-neutral infrastructures.

34. SC|2006 KREOnet The SC06 VMT Demonstrator Korea Internal/External Sensor Webs DRAC Controlled Lightpaths DataCenter @Tampa Amsterdam Netherlight Nortel’s Sensor Services Platform Computation at the Right Place & Time! We migrate live Virtual Machines, unbeknownst to applications and clients, for data affinity, business continuity / disaster recovery, load balancing, or power management

35. International Greenstar

36. GENI Topology optimized by source destination Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Mobile Wireless Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Source: Peter Freeman NSF

37. Mobile Wireless Network GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Thin Client Edge Site Topology optimized by availability of energy Source: Peter Freeman NSF

38. 33 GreenStar Global Collaboration Université du Québec à Montréal China (MOU) RackForce Networks Canadian Standards Association (CSA), Climate Change Division iDealinc. California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology USA Ireland USA Spain SIGMACO International Institute for Broadband Technology Belgium

39. M2M = the Internet of Things Machine-to-Machine communications will let millions of devices communicate with each other and with people 8.1 million vehicles in NL 8 million smart meters in NL TomTom alone sold 10 million Personal Navigation Devices last year A digital picture frame company became a KPN customer recently eReaders are equipped with wireless connectivity Many of these devices will use communications technology from the GSM-family, because it is ubiquitous, standardized and flexible GSM-family is GSM/GPRS/UMTS/LTE also known as 2G/3G/4G GSM-family works on all continents, in almost all nations GSM-family offers coverage almost anywhere, indoor and outdoor Other networking technologies like wifi, powerline, ethernet, cable and DSL broadband have less coverage and often require configuration by user Management Summary “Onderzoek flexibel gebruik MNC’s”

40. SIM-cards lock customers to networks SIM-card designed to facilitate easy change of network or handset for consumer No need to change handset to change network or to change number when changing handsets Every SIM-card has a unique unchangeable IMSI-number and cryptographic key that ties the SIM to a network. IMSI is 15 digits: Mobile Country Code (3 digits, issued by ITU) Mobile Network code (2 or 3 digits, issued by national regulator or ITU for international) Mobile Subscriber Identity Number (9 digits, issued by mobile network) For security reasons the IMSI-number and cryptographic key can’t be changed. Home Location Register verifies the cryptographic key Wholesale networks use MCC+MNC to give access to device MVNO switches wholesale network by changing access permissions (Inter)national roaming works the same way Management Summary “Onderzoek flexibel gebruik MNC’s”

41. Building a “5G” wireless network Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012 Vertical axis turbines and solar Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load Need to offload data at nearest node or tower New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power Cell phones also become sensors Solar Powered WiFi Ericsson Wind Powered GSM

42. Impact of 5G networks 37 The PC is out of the loop The phone is a sensor platform Hardware add-on innovation Location based sensing Touch screen UI Processing is done in real time in the cloud Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device Big data analysis Building new networks on the back of existing ones Reinventing a major industry Source: Tim OReilly

43. Sensors + Cloud 38 Source: Tim OReilly

44. SIM cards & PST SIM cards likely to be main vehicle for consumer identity and authentication with proliferation of smart phones Next gen SIM Cards integrate with new functionality… Address book, calendar back-up, messaging, teleconferencing and file transfers, banking and access control, Web Smart Card Web Server - Web apps right on SIM Cards and TCP stacks Cell phone companies will be soon competing with Visa and MasterCard for Point of Sales Security, identity and authentication will be under control of cell phone company Need open standards and controls for SIM cards 39

45. Private GSM/MVNO explained Private GSM uses the DECT Guardband (or WiFi) to offer unlicensed, private, low power, GSM services in The Netherlands The DECT Guardband was a buffer between the DECT-spectrum and GSM-spectrum, that isn’t necessary anymore. Conveniently standard GSM’s can work in this band Any organisation can use the DECT Guardband to for instance create better indoor coverage. In order to be able to use this technology an organisation needs access to SIM-cards If there was a free to use pool of MNC’s for this purpose, organisations and individuals could experiment easier Management Summary “Onderzoek flexibel gebruik MNC’s”

46. New Green IT research funding OECD ICCP recommendations that Green IT should be funded actual carbon savings Several governments looking at fundng IT research (green and otherwise) out of carbon taxes Quebec to launch Green IT program funded from carbon tax on gasoline Conference Board of Canada finds that funding green research provides more bang per buck in terms of outcome than carbon trading Linking the base revenues for technology funds to emissions provides a direct and useful link between the sources of emissions and potential solutions. The economic impacts are expected to be significant. Identified spending over the five-year period will total $11.8 billion, the bulk of which will be in Alberta ($6.1billion) and Ontario($1.97billion), the two provinces with the largest GHG emissions FCC, NSF, EPA to launch a formal Notice of Inquiry on Green IT

47. Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks Huge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

48. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going E-mail list Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud