Building the world's first zero carbon optical network- Greenstar

1. Building the world's first zero carbon optical network- Greenstar Bill St. Arnaud ビル・サンターノ Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

2. Theme of this talk Climate Change is real and is happening much faster than the most pessimistic forecasts Traditional solutions such as energy efficiency are insufficient and in some cases counter productive We need to move to low or zero carbon solutions and de-couple energy consumption from production of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Innovation is essential ICT and zero carbon Internet networks and clouds can play a critical role 2

3. Global Average Temperature

4. 2009 second warmest year ever2009 2番目に暖かい年

5. Spring 2010 warmest ever This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

8. Climate Change is not reversible気候変動は逆戻りできない Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed 気候変動は酸性雨やオゾン層破壊ではなく、環境は一度汚染されるとすぐには戻らない GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate GHG排出量は大気中に長期間留まり、畜積が継続 Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions 惑星はたとえ私たちが急激に排出量を削減しても温暖化していく Weaver et al., GRL (2007) All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change 急速な気候変動をスローダウンさせるのは我々すべてが達成するべき希望

9. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

10. Urgency of Action “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

11. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today地球規模のICT二酸化炭素排出量は、現在の航空産業界とほぼ同じ But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! しかしICTの排出量は、毎年6％アップ！ www.smart2020.org ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724) Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

12. IT biggest power drawITの最大消費電力 Energy Consumption World Wide世界のエネルギー消費 Transportation 25% Energy Consumption Typical Building 典型的ビルのエネルギー消費 Buildings 50% Lighting 11% Manufacturing 25% IT Equipment 30-40% Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

13. Growth Projections Data Centers Half of ICT consumption is data centers In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

14. Digital vs Traditional appliances

15. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiencyエネルギー効率化の偽り Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes 二酸化炭素排出量削減の最近のアプローチは装置と処理のエネルギー効率化 But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency しかしICTの機器やサービスの急展開が他の利益効率性を上回っている Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc ICTの加速がスマートホームやスマ－トビル、スマートグリッドなど他分野における削減を、助けている。 Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand すごい効率性もまた逆説的に、全体的なコストサービスや需要刺激によってエネルギー消費を増加できる Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliance

16. More on Energy Efficiency If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25% of GHG emissions. To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts. “To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently. ” ITIF Institute - Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change Offsetting efficiency savings will be more people in the US in the next decase(391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size). Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/21/obama-s-energy-pipe-dreams.html 15

17. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf Local wind/solar will be an important component

18. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only偉大なチャレンジ～再生可能なエネルギーだけを利用した堅牢なるICTサービスビル 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources 電力の30％は再生可能な資源から How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? エネルギー資源が信頼できない場合、最重要なICTサービスをいかに提供？ Ebbing wind or setting sun 風なし太陽なし Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks ディーゼルや電池でのバックアップは選択肢なし、なぜならゼロ炭素じゃないし停電の際の最後の手段 Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power 世界中で利用可能な電力のある場所へ仕事やデータをすぐに移動できるような、信頼できるサービス提供を保証する新しいネットワーク設計とビジネスモデルが必要 Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site 仕事とデータを場所から場所へすぐに移動できるような、広帯域ネットワークとルーティング設計が要求される

19. Get off the Grid! Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

20. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MAマサチューセッツに炭素ゼロデータセンターをMITが構築 The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC. データセンターは4つのパートナーにより設立、運営されている。（MIT、シスコシステムズ、マサチューセッツ大学、EMC） It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke 高度なコンピューティング環境で、企業や学校の研究開発能力をサポートする。 http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

21. Many examples already既設の多数事例 Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user Wind powered data centers Hydro-electric powered data centers ASIO solar powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive

22. Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-end” Internet to information Internet http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6972678839686672840# Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users New Internet is based on connecting users to information Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction C. Labovitz, et al "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report" http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet 21

23. Traditional Internet Small Content Provider User’s Computer Backbone ISP1 Fiber Networks Regional ISP Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 2 IX Thousands of miles IX Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 3 Large Content Provider with multiple servers User’s Computer

24. Information Internet – zero carbon Small Content Provider User’s Computer Backbone ISP1 Regional ISP Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Backbone ISP 3 Last mile ISP Nearby Cloud CDN Large Content Provider User’s Computer Content hosted in ACI

25. New Internet Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end” Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last tower” - Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications 24

26. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

27. Green GENI Topology optimized by source destination Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Mobile Wireless Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Source: Peter Freeman NSF

28. Mobile Wireless Network GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Thin Client Edge Site Topology optimized by availability of energy Source: Peter Freeman NSF

29. Power Consumption of IP network Source: Rod Tucker

30. Challenge of efficiency Source: Rod Tucker

31. Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies“太陽追従”技術の出現 The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists. 全体仮想化へ移行可能な柔軟なデータセンターの出現 Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user. HSネットワークを超えた遅延はごく小さく、ユーザにデータ転送は見えない Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention ユーザの知識、行動、介入なしに簡単に実現 Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability. ノーテル研究所は、アメリカ・カナダ・オランダ・韓国のR&Eネットワークスとともに可能性を検証し、2006年に仮想マシーンターンテーブルを構想、開発した。

33. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

35. Motivation: Separate infrastructure ownership and maintenance from usage Today’s example: cloud computing 33 I need more computing power to run my business Option A: Buy hardware Option B: Get some VMs from a cloud provider

36. What if I want to provide network services? 34 Option A: Buy hardware Option B: Get some sort of VPN (It’s ok, but I loose features compared to Option A) Network Service Provider Option C: Any equivalent of “just get some VMs from a cloud provider”?

37. A possible option 35 Ok, here’s your network, it will cost you X € per day, let’s go to Paypal to finish the transaction. You’ll receive an email with the details about your network, with the contact information of your providers and a link to a management application. Cool! I’ll configure the network addressing, internal routing, firewalls and external routing policies, and will be ready for my customers! Network Service Provider Marketplace

38. A possible option 36 Brilliant! I can setup a new VPN through a web page, I don’t even have to send an email to the network admin! Nice! My customers can request the setup of their own services and administer them without annoying me… Thanks automation! Customer A Cool, We can configure our own routing policies in our virtual CPE… Without buying any hardware! Network Service Provider Customer B

39. 37 GSN Hardware

40. 38 Extended GSN Network Diagram

41. 39 GSN Layering Architecture

42. 40 GSN Operational Diagram

43. Greenstar Team iDeal 41

44. Building a R&E “5G” wireless network Next step after Greenstar Enabling Innovation with next generation wireless 5G Internet + clouds - technical details http://bit.ly/c3iZsZ3:18 PM Apr 25th National R&E wireless network for students and researchers Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load Need to offload data at nearest node or tower at university campus New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power Most applications will run in the cloud

45. Impact of 5G networks 43 The PC is out of the loop The phone and iPad is a sensor platform Processing is done in real time in the cloud Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device Big data analysis Building new virtual networks on the back of existing commercial 3G networks using Greenstar/ManticoreIaaSvirtulization Reinventing a major industry More on revenue opportunities for R&E and open access networks - building next generation "5G" wireless network http://bit.ly/dck1kR Source: Tim OReilly

46. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures風力/太陽光アーキテクチャーの経済効果 Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers データセンター間でのコストとエネルギーの察知による負荷分散 http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase グリーンデータセンターの3％のコストアップの活用により、35％の既存エネルギー消費を低下させることができる Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems インターネットの規模のシステムで電気代を削減 Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low 企業は電気代の安い時間帯に稼働しているデータセンターへ、コンピュータのパワーをシフトできる Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices 最も安いエネルギー代を見つけて、ダイナミックに負荷をシフトした 45% maximum savings in energy costs エネルギー代の最大45%の節約 http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/ Computing for the future of the planet 惑星の未来のための http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/ http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

47. Policy Frameworks Cap and Trade e.g. European ETS This is the current favourite instrument being deployed by many governments around the world. Cap and trade systems can be easily gamed and developing meaningful measurable, verifiable and enforceable offset standards may be very tough. Cap and Dividend is a relatively new concept and works on the similar principle as cap and trade except that all monies used to purchase offsets by large emitters are paid in dividends to consumers. The big advantage that jurisdictions with large emissions are not penalized as the money spent on offsets is returned to the constituents in that jurisdiction. There is currently a cap and dividend bill in the US congress. The proposed cap and trade bill in California is also evolving along these lines. Cap and Reward is a variant of cap and dividend where instead of paying cash dividends from the sale of offsets the money is earmarked for the purchase by consumers and businesses of low carbon products and services such as ICT. This creates a virtuous circle where the money earned by the sale of offsets is used to further promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in a given jurisdiction. 45

48. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce”炭素税よりも炭素報酬～“ｇコマース” Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit 炭素税や排出権取引は収支中立だけれども、直接的な利益はだれに No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint 二酸化炭素排出量削減のための高いコストだけで他にインセンティブなし Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? 炭素排出のために消費者やビジネスを罰するより、炭素排出削減のために報酬を与えたほうが？ Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc 炭素報酬は、“仮想の”モノ、映画や本、教育や健康サービス、協働教育や研究技術などをブロードバンドに載せて届けることができる Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc 炭素報酬は、ICTサービス、インターネットや携帯電話、光ファイバーなどもまた無料にすることができる

49. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructureラストワンマイルインフラのための炭素報酬戦略 Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs) 電力やガスの再販による無料の高速インターネットと光ファイバの提供 http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc クリーブランド、スイス、オタワなどでの実証 Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill 消費者はガスや電力の代金に割増を支払う Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output 消費者はエネルギー消費削減を通して節約に拍車、炭素排出削減へ Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption 消費者はエネルギー消費削減しなくても罰せられない May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable 現在のガス＋電気＋ブロードバンド＋電話＋CATVよりも、たぶん実質的に支払減に行きつくだろう Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play 通信事業者は気まぐれなトリプルプレーより、エネルギー消費をベースとした収入を獲得

50. Final remarksまとめ The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions 私たちが直面している問題はエネルギー消費ではなく、二酸化炭素排出量 Think carbon, not energy 二酸化炭素を考えよう、エネルギーではなく We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 私たちは今、気候変動への対応を始めねば～2050年とか2020年とかではなく 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks CO2排出量80%削減は、ICTやネットワーク含めて、根本的に私たちの行動を変えていくだろう Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources ICT分野の技術革新は無限の可能性、なぜならエネルギーの30%は再生可能なエネルギー源からこなければならない

51. Thank youありがとうございます E-mail list Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com Bill St. Arnaud Blogspot http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud