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Using ICT to “adapt” rather than
  “mitigate” Global Warming


               Bill St. Arnaud
       Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com

   Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced,
   modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
We need a new nuclear plant per day
     to keep stabilization at 2C




                       Source: Roger Pielke Jr   2
How fast can decarbonization occur?
• The honest answer no one knows

• Historical rates of 1-2% have occurred in developing
  countries – mostly by outsourcing manufacturing to China

• For short periods some countries have achieved rates > 2%
  e.g. France nuclear program

• US need to achieve 17% reduction while maintaining
  modest economic growth which requires rates of
  decarbonization of >5% per year
   – Need to shut down over 20 coal plants per year to meet this
     target

                                                                   3
Climate Forecasts
•   MIT report predicts median
    temperature forecast of 5.2°C
     – 11°C increase in Northern Canada
        & Europe
     –   http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.p
         hp?publication_id=990
                                                       MIT
•   Last Ice age average global
    temperature was 5-6°C cooler than
    today
     – Most of Canada & Europe was
          under 2-3 km ice

•    Nearly 90 per cent of new scientific
    findings reveal global climate
    disruption to be worse, and
    progressing more rapidly, than
    expected.
     •   http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Freud
         enburg_2010_ASC.pdf
Probability of extreme heat waves




      the probability of an extreme heat wave has
      increased enormously… by about 40 times
      (4000%) in the last 50 years
                    http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/a-defense-
                                                                  5
                    of-jim-hansens-climate-conclusions/download
Future Droughts
• Palmer Drought Severity Index,
or PDSI.

• The most severe drought in
recent history, in the Sahel region
of western Africa in the 1970s, had
a PDSI of -3 or -4.

• By 2030 Western USA could see
-4 to -6. Drought in Texas clearly
caused by global warming:
http://goo.gl/QjHRS


• By 2100 some parts of the U.S.
and Latin America could see -8 to -
10 PDSI, while Mediterranean
areas could see drought in the -15
                                      http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39741525/ns/us_new
or -20 range.                         s-environment/
Utilities biggest source of CO2




 http://www.oecd-
 ilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5k9h2q8v9bln.pdf?expires=1327
 005403&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DFE9FB35608FEA0C67713C5
 8F2952625
                                                                          7
New Challenge: Climate Adaptation
• Obama’s National Science Advisor John Holdren
  “Mitigation alone won’t work, because the climate is
  already changing, we’re already experiencing
  impacts….A mitigation only strategy would be
  insanity,”

• Equal emphasis given to adaptation – avoiding the
  unmanageable, and adaptation – managing the
  unavoidable.”

• Obama’s Climate Adaptation Executive Order
   –   http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1tU8go/www.good.is/post/obama-s-secret-climate-adaptation-plan/
We need to get off the electrical grid
• Biggest source of CO2 emissions because of coal plants – even in places
  that use hydro and wind e.g. Quebec and Denmark

• Coal plants will be most likely targets of protestors and governments
    – If Germany and Switzerland are willing to shut down nuclear plants then
      someday they will realize coal plants are much worse for health, safety and
      environmental reasons

• A good adaptation strategy can also be a good mitigation strategy

• Adaptation strategy means using only distributed renewal resources
  disconnected from the grids
    – Will most likely survive severe weather events
    – Will not be subject to outages when governments are forced to shut down
      coal plants

• But how do you reliable and robust telecommunications and Internet
  when only sources of power are intermittent and unreliable wind and sun?
                                                                                    9
OpenFlow Follow the wind/Follow the sun

                                  Canadian GSN                                   European GSN
                                     Domain                                         Domain
                     Export VM

                                                                                    Notify EU
                                                                                 Cloud Manager
           Cloud Manager                                                                                           Cloud Manager
                                                                     Internet
                                           Dynamically Configure
                                                IP Tunnel
    Host             Network                                                                                             Host
  Resource           Manager                                                                                           Resource

        • Shudown VM
        • Copy Image                                                                                                          • Update VM Context
                                                                   Mantychore2                                                • Start VM
                Shared
       VM       storage
                                                                                                    Shared
                                                                                                    storage       VM



                                                         Lightpath
                          Optical switch                                                         Optical switch
Host   Cloud Proxy
                                                                                                                       Cloud Proxy    Host
AMD, HP & Clarkson U GreenCloud
•Demonstrate the feasibility of deploying a network
of Performance Optimized Datacenters (PODs),
geographically distributed to exploit the availability of
renewable energy for its operation.

• Optimizing the utilization of the available renewable
power for computing by intelligently redistributing
computational load;

•Minimizing losses associated with power
transmission by placing the PODs near the power
source;

•Providing energy and design efficiency through the
use of additional passive cooling for the PODs

•Use the wind power that is currently stranded, i.e.
not-delivered to the grid due to the T&D constraints.
National GreenCloud Vision
Let’s Keep The Conversation Going
                  E-mail list

                  Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com



                   Blogspot
Bill St. Arnaud
                   http://green-broadband.blogspot.com



                    Twitter

                    http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud

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Why adaptation is more important than mitigation

  • 1. Using ICT to “adapt” rather than “mitigate” Global Warming Bill St. Arnaud Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
  • 2. We need a new nuclear plant per day to keep stabilization at 2C Source: Roger Pielke Jr 2
  • 3. How fast can decarbonization occur? • The honest answer no one knows • Historical rates of 1-2% have occurred in developing countries – mostly by outsourcing manufacturing to China • For short periods some countries have achieved rates > 2% e.g. France nuclear program • US need to achieve 17% reduction while maintaining modest economic growth which requires rates of decarbonization of >5% per year – Need to shut down over 20 coal plants per year to meet this target 3
  • 4. Climate Forecasts • MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C – 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe – http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.p hp?publication_id=990 MIT • Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today – Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice • Nearly 90 per cent of new scientific findings reveal global climate disruption to be worse, and progressing more rapidly, than expected. • http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Freud enburg_2010_ASC.pdf
  • 5. Probability of extreme heat waves the probability of an extreme heat wave has increased enormously… by about 40 times (4000%) in the last 50 years http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/a-defense- 5 of-jim-hansens-climate-conclusions/download
  • 6. Future Droughts • Palmer Drought Severity Index, or PDSI. • The most severe drought in recent history, in the Sahel region of western Africa in the 1970s, had a PDSI of -3 or -4. • By 2030 Western USA could see -4 to -6. Drought in Texas clearly caused by global warming: http://goo.gl/QjHRS • By 2100 some parts of the U.S. and Latin America could see -8 to - 10 PDSI, while Mediterranean areas could see drought in the -15 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39741525/ns/us_new or -20 range. s-environment/
  • 7. Utilities biggest source of CO2 http://www.oecd- ilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5k9h2q8v9bln.pdf?expires=1327 005403&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DFE9FB35608FEA0C67713C5 8F2952625 7
  • 8. New Challenge: Climate Adaptation • Obama’s National Science Advisor John Holdren “Mitigation alone won’t work, because the climate is already changing, we’re already experiencing impacts….A mitigation only strategy would be insanity,” • Equal emphasis given to adaptation – avoiding the unmanageable, and adaptation – managing the unavoidable.” • Obama’s Climate Adaptation Executive Order – http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1tU8go/www.good.is/post/obama-s-secret-climate-adaptation-plan/
  • 9. We need to get off the electrical grid • Biggest source of CO2 emissions because of coal plants – even in places that use hydro and wind e.g. Quebec and Denmark • Coal plants will be most likely targets of protestors and governments – If Germany and Switzerland are willing to shut down nuclear plants then someday they will realize coal plants are much worse for health, safety and environmental reasons • A good adaptation strategy can also be a good mitigation strategy • Adaptation strategy means using only distributed renewal resources disconnected from the grids – Will most likely survive severe weather events – Will not be subject to outages when governments are forced to shut down coal plants • But how do you reliable and robust telecommunications and Internet when only sources of power are intermittent and unreliable wind and sun? 9
  • 10. OpenFlow Follow the wind/Follow the sun Canadian GSN European GSN Domain Domain Export VM Notify EU Cloud Manager Cloud Manager Cloud Manager Internet Dynamically Configure IP Tunnel Host Network Host Resource Manager Resource • Shudown VM • Copy Image • Update VM Context Mantychore2 • Start VM Shared VM storage Shared storage VM Lightpath Optical switch Optical switch Host Cloud Proxy Cloud Proxy Host
  • 11. AMD, HP & Clarkson U GreenCloud •Demonstrate the feasibility of deploying a network of Performance Optimized Datacenters (PODs), geographically distributed to exploit the availability of renewable energy for its operation. • Optimizing the utilization of the available renewable power for computing by intelligently redistributing computational load; •Minimizing losses associated with power transmission by placing the PODs near the power source; •Providing energy and design efficiency through the use of additional passive cooling for the PODs •Use the wind power that is currently stranded, i.e. not-delivered to the grid due to the T&D constraints.
  • 13. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going E-mail list Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud