Gang investigators' perceptions of military trained gang members in the southern us
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Communities everywhere have experienced the negative effects of street gangs. The presence of military-trained gang members (MTGMs) in the community increases the threat of violence to citizens. The problem addressed was the apparently growing presence of military-trained gang members in civilian communities in two southern states. The purpose was to determine the perceived presence of military-trained gang members and examine whether there was a relationship between the perceptions of gang investigators regarding the presence and the size of their jurisdictions, the proximity of their jurisdictions to a military installation, and the extent to which investigators participate in anti-gang activities. The Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve were identified as the largest sources of MTGMs and the Bloods, Crips, and Gangster Disciples were the gangs most represented. Military leaders should acknowledge the increase in gang-related crime and address the problems caused for both military and civilian communities without attempting to quantify the threat level. Military leadership should continuously examine activities of all suspected gang members for active gang affiliation for retention purposes while evaluating any gang affiliation for security clearances. Military Law Enforcement liaison for recruiters should develop effective communication with law enforcement agencies to assist with information sharing.
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Gang investigators' perceptions of military trained gang members in the southern us
- 1. Gangs and the Military Carter F. Smith, JD, PhD U.S. Army CID (Retired) carterfsmith@gmail.com 615-656-3505 http://www.gangsinthemilitary.com
- 2. Summary of the problem • Gang members have primary loyalty to the gang • Military training includes tactics that gang members can teach to others • Civilian Police Officers are not regularly trained to respond to military tactics
- 3. • 1.4 million gang members in U.S. (NGIC, 2011). • Increase of 400K over estimated 1 million of 2009 NGIC estimate, which was 26% higher than 2007. • 2010 U.S. Army (CID) Gang and Extremist Activity Threat Assessment reported decrease of 68%. – 2009 Assessment documented 2X increase since 2006 and significant year-to-year increase since 2003. • > 10% of gang members have military training (Smith & Doll, 2012). • Most common military gang-related crimes involved drug trafficking, aggravated assaults, housebreaking and larceny cases, attempted homicides, and sexual assault investigations (CID, 2005-2011; NGIC, 2009; Sazonov, 2011). 3
- 4. It’s important for you because • All gang members in the military return to civilian communities . . . eventually. • MTGMs enter communities and teach tactics to local gang members. • MTGMs have committed murder, racketeering, and drug distribution. 4
- 5. Suspected Gang-Related Investigations/Incidents 2003 2004 150 2005 2006 100 2007 2… 2008 50 2009 2… 2… 2010 0 2… 22 7 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ROI 7 5 5 10 16 17 27 34 11 Other 22 8 4 13 44 62 92 109 102
- 6. Gang-related Investigations and Intelligence Reports Gang-related % of Total Year Investigation & with DON Intel Rpts Nexus 2011 115 1.1114% 2010 120 1.1878% 2009 130 0.0891% 2008 67 0.2037% • Gang activity represents < 2 % of all NCIS reports. • In 2011, 1.1114% of felony reports were gang-related; gang threat LOW. 6
- 7. DOD Instruction 1325.6, Nov 2009 Change 1, February 22, 2012 • Active participation in gangs is prohibited. – Active participation includes. . . fundraising; demonstrating or rallying; recruiting, training, organizing, or leading members; distributing material (including posting on-line); knowingly wearing gang colors or clothing; having tattoos or body markings associated with such gangs or organizations; or otherwise engaging in activities in furtherance of the objective of such gangs or organizations that are detrimental to good order, discipline, or mission accomplishment or are incompatible with military service
- 8. The problem is they are looking for 1st Generation gangs . . . 8
- 9. 9
- 10. Military personnel in gangs • Most (85.2%) El Paso patrol officers indicated within 12 months increase in military in gangs – 88.9% indicated gang members in jurisdiction in military • Gang investigators asked about previous 5 years, and 77% reported increase in military personnel associated with gangs – 25% indicated that there were gang members in their jurisdiction that were currently in the military. 10
- 11. Crimes committed by MTGMs • 66.6% of El Paso patrol officers estimated up to 25% of crime committed by military – Majority gang investigators (28%) reported up to 10%. • Patrol officers indicated majority MTGM junior enlisted (E-1 – E-4). – 83.3% of crimes involved drug offenses. – 79.6% involved assaults. – 72.2% involved in weapons offenses. • Gang investigators reported 36% of gang members lower-enlisted (E-1 – E-4), additional 12% non-commissioned (E-5 and above). – 42% of crimes committed involved drug offenses, – 23% involved assaults. – only 10% involved weapons. 11
- 12. Law Enforcement Perception • All El Paso patrol officers indicated MTGMs already had affiliations prior to joining. – Majority of patrol officers aware of gang affiliation from personal interviews, and/or other law enforcement sources. • Most (31%) gang investigators indicated MTGMs already had affiliations prior to joining. – Half became aware of affiliation from personal interviews, and/or other law enforcement sources. 12
- 13. Law Enforcement Perception 2 • Patrol officers: – 45% agreed gang members using military equipment – 59% disagreed pressure to downplay military connection – 43.2% agreed, 35% disagreed military forthcoming with information regarding gangs • Gang investigators: – 25% agree gang members using military equipment – 28% disagree pressure to downplay military connection – 13% agreed, 21% disagreed military forthcoming with gang information 13
- 14. Relationships with military • Most (67.3%) patrol officers reported working relationship with military authorities. • Many (37%) gang investigators indicated agency had working relationship with military authorities. 14
- 15. HOW BIG A DEAL IS IT?
- 16. • Death of Juwan L. Johnson in 2005 – Eight service members are suspects. • Investigators concluded Johnson was beaten to death during “jumping in” gang initiation linked to suspected ceremony. Gangster Disciples
- 17. “I just don’t picture my son joining a gang” . . . “Does it make any sense that he would join a gang in Germany just weeks before he’s going to leave?”
- 18. 5 top Tijuana cops accused of working with gang • Five high-ranking officers in 2,100-officer Tijuana PD detained by Mexican federal forces. • Two were military captains on leave, hired as part of major anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by Tijuana’s secretary of public safety. – Ties to Sinaloa cartel. • One was former member of ministerial police. 18
- 19. How Big a deal is it? Gang members trained for these roles • Infantry • Medical • Telecommunications • Intelligence and • Paralegal Electronic Warfare • Military Police • Psychological Operations • Intelligence Analyst • Finance • Transportation • Chemical Munitions • Logistics • Explosive Ordnance • Communications • Recruiter
- 20. How Big a deal is it? Gang members trained to use • Weapons • Ammunition • Grenades • Night Vision Goggles • Ballistic Vests M4A1 Carbine Police: Same Man Robs 2 So. Fla. Burger Kings With AK-47
- 21. April 2011: U.S. State Department issued warnings advising to defer non- essential travel to much of Mexico due to threat of armed robbery, carjacking, kidnapping and murder by Zetas. 21
- 22. Zetas 22
- 23. • Three Mexican nationals in conspiracy to trade drugs and cash for military-grade weapons in Feb 2010. • Sinaloa drug cartel – largest drug-smuggling gang in Mexico. • Anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons, grenade launchers and M-60 machine guns • Arrest while attempting to deliver nearly 12 pounds of methamphetamine as partial down payment for military-grade weapons. 23
- 24. • More than 38,000 people killed since Mexico launched war on drug gangs in December 2006. • April 2011 was most violent month yet, with 1,402 deaths • Soldiers found mass graves of the drug war. • Many gang leaders infiltrated police, courts, prisons and town halls. • Drug hit men killed U.S. agent and wounded another in central Mexico – worst attack on U.S. officials in more than a decade. 24
- 25. AND THEN . . . 25
- 26. 26
- 27. AND IF THAT’S NOT BAD ENOUGH . . . 27
- 28. 28
- 29. 29
- 30. 30
- 31. Recommendations • Comply with Executive Order and prohibit gangs • Adopt uniform federal definition of gangs • Identify gangs and related groups as Security Threat Groups 31
- 32. Recommendations • Acknowledge increase in gang-crime and address problems • Continuously determine active gang affiliation for retention purposes and security clearances 32
- 33. Gangs and the Military Carter F. Smith, JD, PhD U.S. Army CID (Retired) carterfsmith@gmail.com 615-656-3505 http://www.gangsinthemilitary.com
Editor's Notes
- http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/feb/10/5-top-officers-accused-of-working-with-gang/TIJUANA — TijuanaMayor Jorge Ramos’ administration has been dealt a severe blow with the detention of five top police officers accused of collaborating with a violent drug gang believed responsible for the deaths of numerous municipal officers.Ramón Angel Soto Corral, 43, one of three shift commanders in the 2,100-officer Tijuana Police Department, was among five high-ranking officers detained Monday by Mexican federal forces in Tijuana. The arrests were announced yesterday in Mexico City by the federal Public Safety Secretariat.Also taken into custody were four sector supervisors, including Macario Arturo RamírezEnríquez, 50, José Enrique RamírezZambrano, 34, Juan Carlos Cruz Espinosa, 49, and Francisco Ortega Zamora, 49. The latter two are military captains on leave, hired as part of a major anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by Tijuana’s secretary of public safety, Lt. Col. Julian Leyzaola Perez.The officers were among 11 men detained Monday by federal forces inside a safe house in Tijuana allegedly being run by a criminal group with ties to the powerful Sinaloa cartel, according to a news release by the federal Public Safety Secretariat. Also among the detainees was a former member of the Baja California ministerial police. Being held captive inside the house were two abducted members of a rival criminal gang, the statement said.The operation took place following the arrests Monday in Baja California Sur of two suspects, José Manuel GarcíaSimental and RaydelLópezUriarte. The two were identified as the leaders of a brutal drug gang that has been operating in the Tijuana area. Authorities say the group is responsible for numerous killings and kidnappings in the Tijuana region, and led a campaign to intimidate municipal police officers by gunning them down.Since taking office more than two years ago, Ramos has led an unprecedented push to root out corruption in the department, which had become heavily infiltrated by organized crime. More than 400 officers have been dropped from the force and more than 100 are behind bars, accused of collaborating with criminal groups. During his administration, 43 officers have been killed in the line of duty, according to municipal police figures.Under Ramos, the city has forged close ties with the Mexican military, which has been spearheading the fight against organized crime in the region.At a news conference in Tijuana yesterday, both the mayor and Baja California Gov. José Guadalupe OsunaMillán applauded the detentions. Ramos said Leyzaola participated in the arrests, and vowed to continue his administration’s efforts to remove corrupt officers.“This will last throughout my administration,” Ramos said. “No one is exempt.”Osuna said the detentions showed the close coordination of municipal, state and federal levels of government. They offered proof, he said, of “the unbending political will … to dismantle the criminal groups that were operating in our state.”
- http://www.heraldextra.com/news/world/article_43bd6ff2-c05f-5b05-9859-e0ff404e65ff.html/ Utah News From The Daily Herald Newspaper / Utah And World News - The Daily Herald / World NewsMass graves in Mexico reveal new levels of savagery StoryDiscussionMass graves in Mexico reveal new levels of savageryNick Miroff and William Booth - The Washington Post Daily Herald | Posted: Monday, April 25, 2011 12:04 am SAN FERNANDO, Mexico -- At the largest mass grave site ever found in Mexico, where 177 bodies have been pulled from deep pits, authorities have recovered few bullet casings and little evidence that the dead were killed with a gun.Instead, most died of blunt force trauma to the head, and a sledge hammer found at the crime scene is believed to have been used in the executions, according to Mexican investigators and state officials.As many as 122 of the victims were passengers dragged off buses at drug cartel roadblocks on the major highway to the United States.The sadistic murders of hundreds of civilians at isolated ranches 90 minutes south of the Texas border mark a new level of barbarity in Mexico's four-year U.S.-backed drug war.As forensic teams and Mexican marines dig through deeper and darker layers here, the buried secrets in San Fernando are challenging President Felipe Calderon's claims that his government is winning and in control of its cities and roads.More than 35,000 people have been killed, and thousands more have simply disappeared, since Calderon sent the military to battle Mexican organized crime with $1.6 billion in U.S. support. U.S. officials in Mexico worry that criminal gangs are taking over sections of the vital border region not by overwhelming firepower but sheer terror.On Thursday, cartel gunmen sacked the city of Miguel Aleman, across the river from Roma, Texas, tossing grenades and burning down three car dealerships, an auto parts outlet, furniture store and gas station. Three buses were strafed with gunfire Saturday in separate attacks, wounding three.The U.S. State Department issued new warnings Friday advising Americans to defer non-essential travel to the entire border state of Tamaulipas and large swaths of Mexico due to the threat of armed robbery, carjacking, kidnapping and murder by organized crime.In the red dirt tombs of San Fernando, almost all of the bodies were stripped of identification, meaning no licenses, bus ticket stubs, or photographs of loved ones, according to interviews with local and state officials, making the job of notifying next of kin especially difficult.Forensic photographs shown to The Washington Post depict mummified bodies caked in dirt and badly decomposed, with signs of extreme cranial trauma. In the largest two graves, holding 43 and 45 bodies, the corpses were piled atop one another in a 10-foot-deep pit dug by a backhoe, that criminals filled over the last four months.Officials in Tamaulipas say they have found 34 grave sites scattered in a wide arc around this farming town of 60,000, where Mexican marines last week established a military camp for ground and helicopter patrols.Evidence suggests the dead include Mexicans and Central American migrants traveling to the United States to work. Only a few of the exhumed bodies have been identified, including a local car salesman, a federal social worker and a Guatemalan immigrant.Authorities have arrested 76 suspects, including local Zeta boss Martin "El Kilo" Estrada, a husky, menacing figure covered in tattoos who authorities paraded before TV cameras and charged as the mastermind of the homicides.Motives for the mass killings remain a matter of speculation. "Perhaps we are seeing in the graves the results of several different confrontations and crimes committed over many months," said Morelos Canseco Gomez, the lieutenant governor of Tamaulipas.Canseco said authorities are still looking for an entire bus loaded with passengers that vanished on the border in March.At least nine graves scattered around San Fernando contained only a single corpse, and some of the burial sites might hold not kidnap victims but fallen cartel comrades killed in shootouts with rivals, Canseco said.The families of passengers taken off buses here did not receive ransom demands, investigators say, and so the victims appear not to have been killed for large sums of money, only what they might have had in their wallets and purses. The savage method of execution is also unexplained, with shuddering investigators left guessing at the deranged mental state of the killers.Officials say it is possible some victims were snatched to serve as forced recruits for the Zetas crime organization, according to five bus passengers abducted but later rescued.San Fernando is the same place where 72 migrants from Central and South America were kidnapped and shot to death last August, bringing condemnation from the United Nations and new focus on the perils faced by travelers crossing Mexico en route to the U.S. border.After the massacre, Calderon sent the Mexican military to retake the town, vowing to "protect migrants and Mexican families." But as attention on San Fernando faded, federal forces withdrew, and locals say the crime gangs quickly muscled their way back in."People began to disappear," said Ramon Ruiz, an apprentice priest in San Fernando. "First it was people with money, then it was anyone. They kidnapped a local farmer's son and demanded $10,000, and when he gave them $5,000 -- everything he had -- they sent him half of his son."The criminals commandeered nearby ranches, murdering the owners or driving them off, then converted barns and sheds into holding pens and execution chambers.Silence choked the town until late last month, when state authorities received calls that large groups of bus travelers were kidnapped along the Highway 101 on March 24 and 29. Soldiers followed a tip down a maze of dirt roads out to a ranch miles off the main highway, where they freed five kidnapping victims and captured nine Zeta cell members, after killing four gunmen who were standing guard.The suspects talked. Mexican authorities began to dig.Most of the bodies recovered from San Fernando were taken to the morgue in Matamoros, across the Rio Grande from Brownsville, Texas. Families of the missing there have taped photocopied fliers of their loved ones to the walls of state forensic offices there, and more than 400 people have arrived to provide DNA samples."MISSING," the fliers read: Eli Octavio Juarez, 17, last seen March 20 in a 1995 Ford Explorer with tinted windows. Or Emmanuel Alejandro Zuniga, missing March 9, en route to Ciudad Victoria, "call his mama."Raul Lopez Zunun, a 70-year-old farmer, traveled 1,100 miles by bus from his home in southern Mexico to the forensic lab in Matamoros, clutching a photocopied picture of his son Israel Lopez. He went missing in the area in late March while en route to a job in Ohio."We're looking for him in all the hospitals here," said Lopez, who grows corn and coffee on a small farm in Chiapas. "I told him not to go."On Thursday, Mexican authorities arrested the police chief in San Fernando, and 16 of the department's 25 officers are now in custody, suspected of working for the Zetas to help the gang kidnap, kill and bury their victims.Marines now patrol the streets of San Fernando, brandishing grenade launchers and heavy machine guns, but local authorities will not venture out to surrounding villages without a military escort.In an interview, San Fernando Mayor Tomas Gloria Requena said it wasn't true that his town was especially corrupt, or evil."San Fernando is Mexico," he said. "It's just like anywhere else."Copyright 2011 Daily Herald. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
- http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/3/mexicans-plead-guilty-in-scheme-of-drugs-for-arms/Mexicans plead guilty in scheme of drugs for armsCartel sought military weapons2 Comments and 4 Reactions|Tweet|Share|Print|Email|More By Jerry Seper-The Washington Times6:32 p.m., Tuesday, May 3, 2011Two Mexican nationals have pleaded guilty in a conspiracy to trade drugs and cash for military-grade weapons — including anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons, grenade launchers and M-60 machine guns — for use by the Sinaloa drug cartel, the largest drug-smuggling gang in Mexico.A third defendant in the case was convicted last week in federal court in Phoenix following his arrest by U.S. drug agents while attempting to deliver nearly 12 pounds of methamphetamines as a partial down payment for military-grade weapons.“It is a chilling thought that warring Mexican drug cartels are actively seeking military-grade anti-aircraft missiles and explosives in Arizona, so I am extremely proud of the work this office and our law enforcement partners have done to uncover and stop this particular scheme,” said U.S. Attorney Dennis K. Burke in Arizona.“This was a complex investigation — a tremendous team effort — that put a stop to a well-financed criminal conspiracy to acquire massive destructive firepower,” he said Tuesday.Pleading guilty in the case were David Diaz-Sosa, 26, of Sinaloa, Mexico, and Emilia Palomino-Robles, 42, of Sonora, Mexico.Diaz-Sosa admitted to conspiring to acquire and export an anti-aircraft missile, conspiring to possess unregistered machine guns, transferring firearms for use in a drug-trafficking crime, and conspiring to possess and possession of methamphetamine in a scheme to acquire, transfer and export military-grade weaponry to a Mexican drug-trafficking organization. He will be sentenced Aug. 1 by U.S. District Court Judge James Teilborg.Palomino-Robles pled guilty in her role as a courier, delivering 2,029 grams of pure methamphetamine and $139,900 to be used as a partial payment for export and transfer to Mexico of military-grade weaponry for use by a Mexican drug-trafficking organization. Her sentencing is set before Judge Teilborg on July 25.A federal jury in Phoenix last week found Jorge DeJesus-Casteneda, 22, of Sinaloa, Mexico, guilty of possession with intent to distribute 12 pounds of methamphetamine as trade for military-grade weapons. He also is scheduled for sentencing on July 25.“Drug cartels use violence and intimidation to perpetuate their criminal activities and prey upon the weakness of others,” said U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Special Agent in Charge Doug Coleman, who heads the agency’s Phoenix office. He called the pleas and convictions “yet another example of how DEA and its law enforcement partners will never relent in using every tool at our disposal to bring these criminals to justice.”The Sinaloa cartel is thought to be responsible for bringing multiton quantities of cocaine and marijuana from Mexico into the United States through distribution cells in this country and Canada, operating primarily out of Mexico’s west coast.According to court documents, Diaz-Sosa, a weapons and narcotics broker, began negotiating the weapons purchase for the cartel and arranged for the delivery of 4.5 pounds methamphetamine to serve as a down payment. Palomino-Robles made the initial delivery on behalf of Diaz-Sosa.For the next three months, the documents show, Diaz-Sosa and his partners negotiated with undercover federal agents for the purchase of a Dragon Fire anti-tank weapon; two AT4 84-mm unguided, portable, single-shot recoilless smooth-bore anti-tank weapons; a Law Rocket light anti-tank weapon; a portable infrared homing anti-aircraft surface-to-air Stinger missile; two Def Tech grenade launchers; and a dozen 40-mm grenades, one M-60 machine gun, one .30 caliber machine gun and three cases of hand grenades.As these negotiations continued, the documents show, Diaz-Sosa and his associates agreed to exchange both cash and methamphetamine as a final payment.According to the records, Diaz-Sosa went to an undercover warehouse maintained by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) on Feb. 17, 2010, to finalize the weapons exchange, at which time Diaz-Sosa and DeJesus-Casteneda were arrested by federal agents. Later that same day, Palomino-Robles was arrested in possession of $139,900, which was determined to be an additional portion of the weapons payment.“Today, through the well-coordinated effort of all involved agencies, dangerous weapons have been kept out of the hands of those who could turn those weapons against the United States,” said ATF Special Agent in Charge Thomas Brandon, who heads the agency’s Phoenix office.
- http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/mexico-risks-idUSRISKMX20110503FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in MexicoShare thisinShare0 0diggsdigg EmailPrintRelated NewsStocks, dollar fall as bin Laden rally fadesMon, May 2 2011Oil slips in volatile trade after bin Laden deathMon, May 2 2011BOJ believes Japan in recession, stands pat on policyThu, Apr 28 2011Bernanke signals no rush to reverse stimulusWed, Apr 27 2011Oil rises after U.S. Fed moveWed, Apr 27 2011Analysis & OpinionIranian dissidents and a U.S. dilemmaBernanke raises the curtain on the Federal ReserveRelated TopicsStocks »Global Markets »By Robin EmmottMEXICO CITY | Tue May 3, 2011 9:00am EDT MEXICO CITY May 3 (Reuters) - Mexican industry is surging ahead after a deep recession, but an escalating drugs war, stalled economic reforms and a dysfunctional oil monopoly are hindering Latin America's No. 2 economy.WORSENING DRUGS WARMore than 38,000 people have been killed in Mexico since President Felipe Calderon launched his war on drug gangs in December 2006, and Mexico risks losing control of large areas to drug gangs near the U.S. border. [ID:nN15124805]April was the most violent month yet in Calderon's fight, with 1,402 deaths, Milenio newspaper reported, and in the northern border state of Tamaulipas, soldiers found last month the worst mass graves of the drug war. [ID:nN27126453]The government says the growing violence is a sign of the cartels' weakness and that the army is reducing their ability to threaten the state, killing or capturing dozens of drug kingpins since December 2009. But many gang leaders, including Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman, the head of the most powerful Sinaloa cartel, are still at large and have infiltrated police forces, courts, prisons and town halls across the country.Tensions with Washington, Mexico's main backer in the drugs war, have also grown since drug hitmen shot dead a U.S. agent and wounded another in February in central Mexico, the worst attack on U.S. officials in more than a decade.Mexican concerns that U.S. authorities are not doing enough to stop weapons sold in the United States from reaching the cartels have also tarnished strong bilateral cooperation.The U.S. ambassador to Mexico resigned in March after a row over Calderon's handling of the drug fight.[ID:nN19196424]However, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met her Mexican counterpart Patricia Espinosa in Washington in late April and on the same day Mexican authorities handed over a once-powerful trafficker for extradition. [ID:nN29299766]Calderon was praised by Washington and ordinary Mexicans at the start of his drug fight, but a failure to battle corruption, money laundering, weak police and overcrowded prisons has shown that the army alone cannot be the solution.Security experts say taking down capos is having little effect on the drugs trade, instead risking more violence.Business leaders are concerned that attacks are hurting Mexico's attractiveness for foreign capital and tourists. Violence has engulfed Monterrey, Mexico's business capital that was once one of Latin America's safest cities. [ID:nN09167340]Security fears at U.S. companies in Mexico have increased over the past year, a poll by the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico showed in March. [ID:nN15266077]Money market investors have largely shrugged of the violence, lifting Mexico's peso currency to its strongest in nearly 2-1/2 years in March. But state oil monopoly Pemex said gas production fell at the end of last year because growing lawlessness near its northern fields hit its operations.Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero has said drugs violence affects economic decisions in some areas and that, generally, countries with crime problems can see 1.2 percentage points sliced off annual growth.Calderon's conservative National Action Party, or PAN, may pay a price for the violence at the next presidential election in 2012, particularly in northern Mexico where drug violence is worse and from where the party traditionally draws support.What to watch:-- Political assassinations or more attacks on civilians.-- Foreign or local companies freezing investment plans.-- Signs that violence is seriously damaging Calderon.